Season Preview: Infield

The home-grown infield is all grown up. It wasn't long ago that we heard about guys like J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder down in the minor leagues and Bill Hall was working his way from super-utility to MLB regular.  Expectations were high, but we wondered if it was really possible for all of these guys to turn into world beaters, slugging their way to Post Season glory.  There have been bumps along the way, but they did reach the postseason together as a group in 2008. Unfortunately, with their arbitration clocks ticking now may be a good time to look around the diamond to evaluate just where these guys are at, because it may be the last season that everyone is together.

J.J. Hardy has one more arbitration year left after 2009 before he's eligible for free agency, and the Brewers hot-shot shortstop prospect Alcides Escobar is knocking on the door.  Prince Fielder just signed a two-year contract which will take some of the drama out of the contract negotiations going into 2010, but trade rumors will probably start kicking into high gear, especially if the Brewers get off to a slow start.  And finally 2009 will go a long way in determining if Bill Hall and Rickie Weeks will remain Brewer regulars or if the team needs to start clearing some room for younger, cheaper talent.

Among Brewer fans, debates surrounding Rickie Weeks are as confrontational as a clash between the Sharks and the Jets (singing and dancing included).  Supporters point out his patience at the plate, his flashes of power and speed on the base paths.  Detractors are frustrated by his low batting average, high strikeouts and inconsistent defense.  It doesn't help that Weeks has become the default lead-off hitter in the Brewers line-up, though it's for a good reason; next to Prince Fielder, he has the best ability on the squad when it comes to getting on base.  Weeks' .342 OBP in 2008 was low by his standards, considering he posted OBPs of .363 and .374 in 2006 and 2007.  If pre-season projections are right, expect a bounce back of some kind from Weeks this year.  CHONE is projecting .257/.368/.431 while ZiPS is projecting .246/.359/.409.  Everyone needs to make their peace with the fact that Rickie will likely fail to consistently carry a high batting average.  He has power to unleash, but it's unwise to expect more than 20 home runs until we see him actually do it.  Ultimately, on a team with so many free swingers, Rickie Weeks has skills that are very necessary since he's one of the few guys willing to take pitches, work counts and take a free base.

I like Bill Hall.  I am cheering for Bill Hall.  But I am always frustrated by Bill Hall.  Here is a guy who wasn't much of a prospect, but fought for playing time on some bad teams and then had a really good season as a super utility guy and a great season filling in at shortstop while J.J. Hardy battled injuries early in his career.  Then things got weird as the Brewers signed Billy to a 4 year/$27 million contract and moved the career infielder to centerfield.  The front office was saying, "we think we like you, but we don't know what to do with you," and he's struggled ever since.   Hall was never the 35 home run player he was in 2006, but now he needs to show he's not the .293 OBP guy from last season.  CHONE has Hall hitting .248/.320/.439 and ZiPS predicts .248/.315/.445.  If Hall can produce those numbers, he's probably worth sticking with for his average to plus defense at third, otherwise look for a platoon situation to break out and screams from fans for prospect Mat Gamel.

J.J. Hardy seems to the player that most Brewers fans really like to support.  He's a no-frills player with some pop in his bat, a solid glove and he's made steady progress from season to season.  Hardy made his first All-Star Game in 2007 thanks to a red-hot start in April and May, and finished the season with respectable numbers.  In 2008 he figured out how to put it together for a full season and hit .283/.343/.478, showing more patience at the plate and maintaining the power he showed the previous season.  CHONE (.278/.343/.463) and ZiPS (.277/.337/.479) project similar number for 2009, which will again provide the Brewers with slightly above league average offensive production and a steady presence in the field at shortstop.

Prince Fielder is the heart of the offense for the Milwaukee Brewers.  Sorry Ryan Braun fans, but it's true.  No one in the line-up at the moment combines Fielder's patience at the plate and his ability to hit for power.  2008 was really disappointing for Prince as he followed up his 50 home run, .288/.395/.618 season with 34 home runs and .276/.372/.507 (and that was aided by a monster September).  At 25 years old, look for a bounce back from Fielder.  CHONE (.286/.388/.555) and ZiPS (.285/.388/.569) are projecting numbers closer to 2007, though it wouldn't be a stretch to see Fielder start posting a +.400 OBP.  All of the tools are there, and now that he has a two-year deal in place, he can go out there and swing that big club again.  Let's just hope that the new, trimmer Fielder has learned to dig some balls of the dirt this year.

The Brewers resigned Whitefish Bay native Craig Counsell for 2009, retaining his versitility.  Counsell can play anywhere in the infield and give the Brewers quality pinch hit ABs when called upon.  Don't expect a lot with the stick (CHONE .224/.325/.310, ZiPS .218/.331/.282), but he's a good guy to have available.  Brad Nelson will get a shot to give Fielder a breather on occasion this year.  He should show some patience at the plate with some pop from the left side (CHONE .254/.349/.407, ZiPS .239/.319/.395).  Casey McGehee had a solid spring and will fill in as the final infielder (CHONE .252/.312/.369).

Comments

 

Ryan Topp said:

Nicely done.

The lavish Broadway musical reference was very LaFluer, though.

I think you're right about the fans liking to support Hardy, which is funny considering that after he was hurt in 2006 and Hall filled in so well he was all but written off. That big May in 2007 really opened up a lot of eyes, which is silly when you consider that Hardy was all of 24 at the time.

I'm really interested to see if McGehee can do much of anything, because his minor league numbers taken in context don't project that he should do much of anything. Is he a late developer?

March 31, 2009 11:12 PM
 

Tim said:

We went to 3 games in Spring Training, and McGehee only played against the Royals.  He got a hit off Greinke, but then again, a lot of Brewers did that day.  The 2 outs he made were all well hit balls, so he didn't look over matched at all.  He made a couple of decent plays at 3rd, showed a solid but not spectacular arm.  

April 1, 2009 9:28 AM

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