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April 2009 - Posts
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For those who pay attention to pitch counts and know the score when it comes to the injury rate of young pitchers, the notion of allowing the Brewers' young phenom pitcher Yovanni Gallardo to throw 17 innings in 6 days is going to raise some eyebrows. After all, with the market rate for "ace" quality starting pitching being well out of the advisable price range of a team like the Milwaukee Brewers, the fate of the franchise is going to be strongly tied to that of the young righthander. They need to keep this guy healthy and overworking him is not the way to do that. So the question is, are they overworking him?
It is impossible to know exactly how much work is too much from a young pitcher. We can count pitches (and we will) but not all pitches are created equal in terms of the stress they put on the body. Baseball Prospectus came up with a system to try to define how much stress pitchers have to deal with in their Pitcher Abuse Points system. They give ever escalating numbers of "abuse points" for every pitch thrown over given numbers. After his start on Wednesday, Gallardo was ranked 15th in MLB in total pitcher abuse points. Gallardo has thrown at least 100 pitches in each of his first 5 starts this season, but had not pitched more than 106 until Wednesday's domination of the Pirates when he threw 116. Over the last two starts he has thrown 222 pitches, though, which is an average of 111.
So is this too much? Maybe, but there is some pretty good evidence that says that those 222 pitches probably weren't all that high stress. First off, 222 pitches in 17 innings isn't that many. It works out to 13.1 per inning, which is almost 4 pitches per inning below the league average of 16.8 so far this year. In other words, he's getting his outs and getting back to the dugout where he gets to sit and watch the Brewers rack up big pitch counts on the opposition while resting up.
Many pitchers will tell you that they really only bear down when there are runners in scoring position or a big HR threat is at the plate. While we cannot assume this is automatically true about Gallardo, it seems rather likely to be the case given his precocious nature on the mound. So how many times did Gallardo really have to bear down? He worked 10 of those 17 innings 1-2-3. Of the 59 batters who came to the plate in those 17 innings, only 15 of them came to bat with a runner on base and only 6 of them did so with a runner in scoring position. Furthermore, the lineups that he faced were pretty devoid of true "power threats". Sure, there's Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Adam LaRoche. In fact, Lee drove in the only two runs allowed in that time on a two run shot in Houston. There was also Michael Bourn, Kaz Matsui, Nyjer Morgan, Ramon Vasquez, Robinzon Diaz and a couple of pitchers. If Gallardo really does only "bear down" with runners in scoring position and with big time HR threats, he wasn't bearing down all that often.
All in all, you don't want Gallardo averaging 111 pitches this season as a whole. It will be rare that he will have so many "low stress" innings, and there will be days when 100 pitches will be enough. There will also be days where he's pitching as he has his last two starts, though, and inning and pitch counts just mean less in those situations. There is something to be said for watching for signs that a pitcher is laboring and factoring that into the equation. When Gallardo pitches like he has his last few outings he just isn't going to be laboring very hard and then the leash should be extended a bit in terms of the raw number of pitches.
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RHP Chris Smith:
When you watch so many Brewer pitchers struggling to throw strikes at the major league level, reliever Chis Smith's 18 Ks and 0 walks at AAA Nashville so far this season have a way of grabbing your attention. Smith gets the nod as Prospect of the Week with 0 ER in 7 IP and continues to demonstrate near perfect control with 6 K's and 0 walks. In 6 relief outings on the season, Smith has only allowed 2 ER on 11 hits in 14 IP. That is good for a 1.29 ERA, .216 average against and 2 saves.
In 2002, Smith was a fourth round draft pick of the Boston Red Sox. He was severely injured in a ATV accident in 2002 which limited his development. Smith finally made it to the big leagues last year for Boston and posted 7.85 ERA in 18 1/3 innings. He also had a 3.19 ERA and a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio pitching in AAA. After last season, Smith was designated for assignment by the Red Sox. He signed as a free agent with the Brewers after clearing waivers.
Smith throws a 89-93 mph fastball, a power curve and has a decent change-up. His pitching style has been compared to Mike Mussina by scouts. If he keeps pitching well, he could get a chance with the Brewers sooner rather than later, considering Dave Riske's injury and Jorge Julio having not yet earned manager Ken Macha's trust. Smith should be a interesting prospect to watch because he seems to have legitimate big league stuff, has excellent command and is now reaching the age when many guys "figure out" how to make it work as a reliever.
(H/T to SoxProspects.com)
Three Up
OF Caleb Gindl: Gindl has had no adjustment period at Brevard County. Last week, he was 12/23 with 3 BB, 2HR and 1 SB. That works out to a amazing line of .522/.577/.783/1.360. Gindl has done nothing so far to dissuade those that were making "poor man's Brain Giles" comparisons this offseason.
2B Bret Lawrie: The bat of the Brewers' top pick in 2008 came alive last week in a serious way. Lawrie was 8 for 21 with a double, a triple, two home runs and two stolen bases. That +.800 slugging is exactly why so many people are so high on him. Lawrie has a .980 OPS on the season and has shown some speed with 6 steals. Speed and power...sound familiar?
RHP Cody Scarpetta: Brewer fans should should start praying to the Young Pitcher Injury Gods for this guy. Scarpetta had a terrific start this week, allowing 1 ER on 3 hits in 6 innings, striking out 10 while walking 2. He has been mowing down hitters all year, with 18 K's in 11 2/3 innings this season. Yet another promising young arm in the system.
Three Down OF Lorenzo Cain: Lorenzo Cain is down. Way down. It was probably somewhat unrealistic to expect him to be ready to go as the starting center fielder on opening day 2010 anyway, but this makes very unlikely that they might actually try to make that happen. That might be a good thing, but having a promising young player sidelined and delayed like this is never really a good thing.
LHP Evan Fredrickson: Perhaps the most advanced member of the Brewers "big six" picks from last year's draft is not as advanced as we were led to believe. Fredrickson continued to struggle in his start last week with 7 ER and 7BB in 4 1/3 innings. You don't even think about giving up on a guy who has shown mid 90's velocity as a prospect, but 8.49 ERA and terrible 1 to 1 K/BB ratio on the season leaves plenty of room to doubt.
SS Alcides Escobar: Escobar might have Ozzie Smith potential in the field, but he put up a Joey Cora like week of 6 for 28, with one walk and zero extra base hits. Obviously the bat still needs some work before he sees the show. He did steal four bases last week, which is something, at least.
From the Dustbin
RHP Mike Jones: Its nice to see 2001 first round pick Mike Jones healthy and throwing down in Huntsville. He has a decent 3.60 ERA and 11 K's in 15 Innings. Jones has spent more of his professional baseball career rehabbing than pitching and it's hard to expect much of anything to come of this, but maybe he could develop into a decent reliever if he can stay healthy? That would be something, at least.
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The Brewers new low A affiliate, the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, will be playing a game against the Cubs' affiliate, the Peoria Chiefs, on Friday night. If you're going to the game, here are a few players to keep an eye on.
- How comfortable does last year's first round pick, Brett Lawrie, look at second? He's already hitting the ball with good power (2 homers, 3 triples and 3 doubles) and taking his walks (4), so there are few questions about his offense. In the double-header on Thursday, Lawrie hit for the cycle between the two games and knocked what turned out to be the game winning homer in the 6th inning of the nightcap. The real issue for Lawrie is whether or not he'll be able to stick at the keystone. So pay attention to his footwork, his hands and how he sets himself for throws to first, as that stuff is probably going to be what will hold him back from breaking into the big leagues.
- Speaking of defense, pay attention to the sort of jumps that Cutter Dykstra is getting on balls in CF. It was around this time last year that his high school coach moved him from short to center because it was likely to be his best position as a pro, so he's undoubtedly still learning on the job. He had a good offensive game in the first game of a doubleheader on Thursday (3 for 3 with 2B and a BB) but hasn't shown much pop at all this season yet, so look for signs of that as well.
- Catcher Shawn Zarraga is off to something of a slow start this year after hitting very well in the Rookie Arizona League last year.
- The real story of the Timber Rattlers is probably the pitching, but unfortunately two of the better pitching prospects, Cody Scarpetta and Efrain Nieves, have pitched in the last couple of days. Also off the list of possible starters is one of the "big 6" picks from the first 2 rounds last year, Evan Fredrickson, though considering the beating he is taking while I typed this, that probably isn't a bad thing. Don't fret though, there are a couple of legitimate prospects slated to pitch. The starter is likely to be Wily Perlata, a prospect who has pitched very well thus far. Also on the list of pitchers who will see action Friday is Cody Adams, another "big 6" guy who is off to a solid start in 2009.
- On the other side of the diamond, pay attention to the Cubs' first round (third overall) pick from 2007, Josh Vitters. He's been hampered by some injuries thus far in his career, but he's hitting the ball extremely well and is still likely to be the guy who takes over for Ramirez at the hot corner in a few years. Beyond him, there is middle infield prospect Ryan Flaherty (good bat with questionable fielding abilities) and catcher Michael Brenly (the son of TV man Bob Brenly).
(H/T to Jim Breen from Bernie's Crew for info on the scheduled pitchers)
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Prospect of the Week
RHP Roque Mercedes
There were a lot on impressive pitching performances throughout the system in the cold first week and a half of the 2009 Brewers minor league season, but Roque Mercedes stood out above the rest. Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a 17 year old in 2004, his first three plus years in the system, where he mostly started games, offered nothing but glimpses and hints of what he could do as a reliever.
Then in 2008, the team gave him significant innings out of the pen and Mercedes responded by posting a 1.93 ERA in 51 relief innings at low A West Virginia, while accumulating a 60:6 K:BB ratio. His overall numbers were far from impressive (4.30 ERA in 113 total IP) which speaks to his still developing secondary offerings. His bread and butter is a low 90's fastball, but looking at his frame and age, there is a good chance he can add to that pitch as he matures.
Mercedes picked up right where he left off this year in Brevard County, pitching 5 scoreless innings while allowing only three hits, striking out nine while walking only one. It's hard to do much better than a 0.00 ERA, 9:1 K:BB ratio, 0.80 WHIP and a .176 average against. It's way too early to start claiming an Omar Aguilar-style breakout is in the works here, but if Mercedes can maintain even close to that sort of K:BB ratio going forward, he could move quickly and be in the Milwaukee bullpen by the end of 2010 or sooner.
Three Up
3B Mat Gamel's bat: Apparently Mat Gamel likes hitting in the first half. A lot. So far, he's hit .436/.489/.821 with 3 HR, 6 2B and 5 BB in 39 AB's. In case you're wondering why those sort of astronomical numbers didn't qualify him as Prospect of the Week, just read on.
LHP Efrain Nieves: There were a lot of pitchers off to good starts in Appleton, but Nieves stood out for a couple of reasons. First off, in 9 2/3 innings he's only allowed 3 runs. He's posted a 11:2 K:BB ratio, held hitters to .129 batting average and amazingly induced more than 7 times as many ground outs as air outs. He won't turn 20 until November and he's a lefty. Keep a very, very close eye on this kid this season
RHP Tim Dillard: Dillard was moved to the bullpen full time in 2008, but the Brewers lack of depth in the major league rotation pushed him back to the Nashville rotation, at least to open 2009. There is nothing to special about a 5:4 K:BB ratio in 11 innings, but he did hold hitters to a .231 average and post a 1.64 ERA. If he keeps this up, Dillard could force himself into the Brewer bullpen picture before school is out.
Three Down
3B Mat Gamel's glove: Errors and fielding percentage are pretty limited defensive stats, but they do have some analytical value at the extremes. Enter Mat Gamel. 5 errors at the hot corner in 10 games is Ryan Braun bad, or maybe even worse. He simply cannot play third base at the major league level making errors at that rate. The question is rapidly changing from "can he play third" to "where will he move" and the Brewers are going to need to face it sooner rather than later.
OF Cutter Dykstra: The Son of Lenny is looking pretty rough so far in his first 37 AB's in the Midwest League. It's cold out there, but .189/.231/.243 wouldn't be good in any set of conditions. It doesn't mean much, but a good start is better than a bad start and this isn't a good start.
C Jon Lucroy: For fans concerned about Jason Kendall's bad start in the majors, neither Angel Salome nor Jon Lucroy offer much consolation at this point in the performance department. Lucroy has been particularly bad, going 7 for 33 with only one extra base hit (a homerun) and committing two errors behind the plate. He's better than this, but one does have to worry a bit about John Sickel's "Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome" if this goes on too long.
From The Dustbin (This new feature that will show up from time to time this year in BTGP Prospect of the Week writeups will focus on players that may have once been legitimate prospects but have since fallen on hard times but are worth noting for some reason.) Yohannis Perez: A Cuban defectee who missed organized playing baseball in 2006 and signed with the Brewers before the 2007 season, Perez has been a thourough disappoinent in his time playing ball in The States. Until now. Thus far, he's got an OPS over 1.000 at Huntsville. Don't get excited because a 26 year old should torch AA pitching, but Perez hasn't done much that he should offensively to this point, so it's something.
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 With the Brewers off to a dreadful 3 and 8 start to the season, it's probably a good time to take stock in what is going well on the team. Anyone that follows the team can tell you that the middle of the order isn't producing and that Jeff Suppan has been bad seemingly forever. So to make you feel a little better, here are 10 things (in no particular order) to take solace in while watching some ugly baseball.... - The Offense Is Taking Walks
Last season, the Milwaukee Brewers walked 550 times in 6,251 trips to the plate, or roughly 8.8 percent of the time. This year (through Friday night's game). they have walked 45 times in 382 plate appearances, or 13.9 percent of their chances. We'll have to wait and see if this sort of improvement holds and also have to see if the change in approach hurts them in other areas or not. If they can sustain this, when the balls start flying more easily out of parks this summer they should be poised to have a monster offensive showing. In 14 1/3 innings since joining the Brewers last September, Coffey has yet to allow a run in game action. This year, in seven innings, he has struck out 4 while walking 2 and allowing 4 hits. His power sinker immediately conjures up memories of Salomon Torres in 2008, and while you can expect some rough patches from Coffey in the same way, he should be a useful arm out of the pen this season. - Bill Hall's Overall Performance
Many a fan held out hope that Bill Hall's decision to undergo Lasik eye surgery would somehow unlock the Bill Hall of 2006 or even 2005. Well, that hasn't happened yet, as Hall is still sitting on zero home runs for the season, but there have been noticeable improvements. Through action on Friday, Hall was hitting.310/.375/.448 on the season and playing solid defense at the hot corner while making some very nice plays. He's a good candidate for regression based on what he did in 2007-08, but this is one of the first positive runs he's had going since signing his big contract after the 2006 season, so it's worth noting.
It took awhile, but eventually the Brewers closed what many fans (including this one) considered to be a big hole in innings available in the starting rotation by signing Braden Looper to a reasonable one year contract. In his first two starts, he's done just about as well as you can expect from an inning eating 4th starter type. In 11 total innings, he's given up 4 runs (3.27 ERA) while striking out 8 and walking 5. He'll go longer than 5 and 6 innings at points this season and he'll also have games where he gives up more than three runs, but he's off to a solid start and seems to be just about what the Brewers hoped they would get from him. No player better symbolized the Brewers' struggles in September than Corey Hart. Many fans spent the winter questioning his future with the organization and those fears were only slightly allayed by his blistering spring training. The biggest concern was the precipitous drop in On Base Percent from .353 in '07 to .300 in '08. Through Friday night's game, Hart was hitting .250/.372/.583 with three home runs. Perhaps most telling is the fact that he has walked 7 times in 10 games this season which is already more than a quarter of the way to his '08 total of 27. If he continues to hit for power and take walks like he has he will be a huge asset to this organization this year. Yeah, he's a positive. Take out that one inning against the Reds on Monday and he's been downright dominating in his three starts. Even with that terrible 3rd inning, Yo has pitched 17 2/3 innings in three starts while holding opponents to a 1.24 WHIP. He needs to cut down on the walks (8) and avoid the killer HR (like the slam on Tuesday), but he's striking out batters (16) and keeping the team in games. Ken Macha needs to continue to keep an eye on his workload and the team should not count on him to carry them, but when he's on the mound he's an asset. He ain't to bad at the plate, either. - Rickie Weeks Spraying the Ball
Weeks has long been held up by the statistically inclined as an underrated player. He started off well, but his numbers (.233/.298/.419) have come back to earth quite a bit in recent days. That is somewhat concerning, but what is nice to see is that he's working to get away from his pull heavy tendencies of the past that so often allowed teams to shift defenders into position to take away hits. For his career, Weeks has favored left field over right by better than a 3:2 ratio, and that is exactly inverted this year. If he can continue to hit the ball the other way, he will loosen up the defense and give himself more room to work with in left when he does pull the ball that way. Some will try and tell you that the Brewers 1-4 record in one run games is a bad omen. Maybe that's the case, but more often than not those things even out over the course of a season. Bill James pioneered the concept of using a team's run differential to predict their record and over time, it's held up pretty well. The Brewers may be 3-8 at this point, but their predicted record based on run differential is 4-7. It's a very small thing at this point, but it's something. This is burying the lead a bit, but Mike Cameron has been unquestionably great this season so far. Through play on Friday, Cameron was hitting .355/.474/.742 with 3 homers, 3 doubles and 7 walks. Obviously, that sort of production isn't going to continue. The batting average will drop and the strikeouts will add up, but at the end of the year it's probable that Mike Cameron's OPS will be among the best of players at his position on the diamond. Perhaps most importantly, Mike Cameron has been around the block. He's dealt with teams off to slow starts and underplaying their talent level plenty of times. By all accounts, he's is a respected presence in the Brewers clubhouse. If anyone can set the pace and keep players heads on straight through this rough start, it's Mike Cameron. - Trevor Hoffman Has Yet To Pitch
An obvious but somewhat overlooked point is that the guy the Brewers brought in to be the stopper at the end of games isn't able to perform that duty yet because he's on the disabled list. According to Tom Haudricourt at the JSblog, he's scheduled to be back by next weekend, which is pretty good news. It's not wise to expect the Trevor Hoffman of 1999 to come strolling out of the bullpen this year, but hoping that he will allow other relievers to slot in behind him and stabilize the pen situation isn't unreasonable. At the very least, he gives them another option to turn to in close games. That's 10 reasons not to panic. Feel better yet? Well, if that didn't cut it for you here is another one, with long reaching implications - The Minor Leaguers Are Largely Playing Well
For that, check back Monday for the first installment of Between The Green Pillar's Prospect of the Week Feature.
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