Tim (Chicago): Rickie Weeks is playing over his head right now .274/.338/.504. What's his ceiling, .240/.360/.420?
Keith Law: His ceiling is higher than what he's doing right now. You are severely underestimating his tools.
No matter how Rickie Weeks is playing, the guy gets the most coverage of any player on the team. Even if Ryan Braun is the superstar, Rickie Weeks is the lightning rod. It's a lot more fun to talk about Weeks when things are going good, and right now he's starting to live up to the lofty (and somewhat unrealistic) expectations. It might be a bit greedy, but watching Weeks hit the ball right now makes me wonder if they might be able to get more production out of his bat.
Bill James ran the numbers on the the percentage of at bats each position in the line up sees runners on base:
Leadoff 33%
2nd 43%
3rd 48%
Cleanup 50%
5th 48%
6th 46%
7th 46%
8th 46%
9th 45%
It jumps out that the lead off spot sees the least at bats with runners on by a significant margin. In 500 at bats over the course of a season, the lead off hitter will see 50 fewer runners on base, so it may be time to look at moving Weeks down in the order to take advantage of the way he's hitting the ball. It's great to see him lead off games with a home run, but it may be more beneficial to move him down even one spot in the order and hope to turn a couple of those solo home runs into 2-run shots.
The Brewers don't have a prototypical lead off hitter on their squad. Corey Hart is the guy who most likely would get moved into the lead off spot in the past. Hart's patience at the plate has returned this season, so it makes him a decent candidate to move to the top of the order. He hits with power, but his home run total will probably end up in the mid-20s. The Brewers won't waste a ton of power in that spot. JJ Hardy is similar to Hart, and after his slow start Hardy is starting to get on base with some regularity. In the last 14 days, he's hit .361/.442/.667. To say that Hardy is a streaky hitter is an understatement. When Craig Counsell gets the platoon start at third, he may be the best candidate to lead off. He works pitchers and just gets on base. No power and decent speed. Does he really need to bat second to "advance the runner" for Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder? Those two don't struggle knocking guys in from anywhere in the diamond.
Really we're talking about Weeks knocking in a handful of extra runs by moving him down one spot in the order. That may not be worth one extra win on the season. There is no problem leaving him in the lead off spot, but the option is there to try and take advantage of potentially dynamic bat by dropping Weeks one spot in the order.