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June 2009 - Posts
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Many Brewers fans were disappointed to see Gabe Kapler leave the team after his surprising 2008 season. Kapler stepped in while Mike Cameron was serving his 25 game suspension to start the 2008 season and Tony Gwynn Jr. was struggling with the bat and injuries. Casey McGehee seems to have taken advantage the same way Kapler did last year. A season ending wrist injury to Rickie Weeks and the struggles of Bill Hall opened the door for someone on the bench to step up and the Brewers have been fortunate that McGehee seems to be that guy. Milwaukee's infield is still a fluid situation with McGehee, Craig Counsell, Bill Hall and rookie Mat Gamel all filling multiple roles. McGehee's sudden surge (.336/.400/.564, 125 PA) has been a stabilizing force, taking pressure off Gamel to be a impact hitter right away and using Hall situationally until he (hopefully) figures out how to hit again. But can McGehee keep up this kind of production? The 26-year old McGehee was claimed off waivers after spending 6 seasons in the Chicago Cubs minor league system. He never put up remarkable numbers (career .279/.332/.409) and his best season was probably 2008 when he hit .296/.345/.429 in 550 PA with the Iowa Cubs. For some reason, he's now hitting like a middle of the order bat. The fact that Casey McGehee is carrying a .376 BABIP is certainly helping his cause. McGehee is a line drive hitter and has carried pretty high BABIP numbers through the minors (.308-.341), but his current pace is high and should regress as the season moves forward. He has a 22.8% line drive rate which is similar to Ryan Braun and higher than Prince Fielder. It's not exceptionally high, but you start to find some pretty elite hitters who carry that kind of a line drive rate. Ultimately the Brewers need to ride McGehee while he's hot. ZiPS projects McGehee to hit .263/.313/.397 for the remainder of the season and finish with a respectable line of .287/.342/.450. I'd be surprised if he maintained the numbers to be a starter in the
major leagues, but he's cheap talent that the Brewers have the option
of controlling for the immediate future. He has shown some power, patience and the ability to play multiple positions, so he should be on the field regularly for the rest of the season and has the chance to stick on the roster beyond 2009.
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C Cameron Garfield:
It's always tough in the weeks leading up to the start of rookie and short season ball, because we've covered just about everyone noteworthy multiple times and we start digging for anyone to mention, regardless of how they really stack up as a prospect. Of course, when the other leagues do get going, there is a temptation to focus too strongly on them and let other stuff go a little to easily. That wasn't an issue this week, though, because there were all kinds of notable performances from the new guys that really warranted mention.
The most noteworthy of all was that of Cameron Garfield, the HS catcher from California that the Brewers popped in the second round of the June draft. The Brewers decided that he could handle playing largely older competition in the Pioneer league and they were instantly justified for that decision when he went 5 for 5 with a double in his first game as a pro. Overall in his first week, Garfield went 10 for 21 with 2 walks, 3 doubles and a homer. That's good for a .476/.522/.762/1.284 line, which is obviously pretty impressive for a kid not a month removed from graduating high school facing a lot of college guys.
The draft this year was deep in catchers, and despite the fact that the Brewers have a couple of catching prospects in the high minors in Angel Salome and Jon Lucroy, the Brewers decided Garfield was worth a second round pick. Scouting reports indicate that he is a plus defensive catcher, so it will probably be up to his bat to decide how far he can go as a pro ballplayer. He's off to a fine start in that regard, and given the confidence the Brewers have shown in him by sending him to Helena, they may be open to moving him quickly.
Three Up:
SS Joshua Prince: The Brewers' third round pick out of Tulane in this June's draft had a pretty good week in Helena as well. In 30 trips to the plate, he got on 12 times, hit a couple of doubles and stole 9 bases, including 6 in one game, while being caught twice. This is good news for a system low on impact middle infielders.
LHP Bobby Bramhall: Bramhall has had a bad year overall in AA, but has been better of late and he allowed only 1 earned run in 6 1/3 innings last week, with 6 K's. He's still walking too many batters (about 4.5 per 9 IP) but this is progress.
OF Scott Krieger: OK, so 3 of his 4 home runs came in a game with 10 total HR hit, but the 19th round pick this June out of George Mason University did hit 4 homers in his first week as a pro for Helena. He's not going to maintain a 1.277 OPS or anything crazy like that, but a good start is a good start, even for a 19th rounder.
Three Down:
RHP Jeremy Jeffress: <Insert bad pun here> Hey, at least we won't have to complain about all the walks in this space anymore, right?
RHP Brandon Rapoza: Rapoza has been having a pretty good year, but gave up 6 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings this week. As a 23 year old in high A, the expectation level is pretty high and he'll need to get back to producing if he wants to stay on the radar of this organization.
Virtually Every Pitching Prospect Below A Ball: It's sort of the nature of the world that since you wait months to see how some of these guys would do, they would be pretty much universally awful in their first action. Among the list of early disappointments are Jake Odorizzi, Eric Arnett, Seth Lintz and Maverick Lasker, not an ERA under 9 in the bunch. Hey, Blakeney Billings only allowed 3 ER in his first 6 innings at Arizona at least, albiet with a WHIP over 2. It's way to early to get even a little nervous about this, but a good start is always better than a bad one and there isn't much to get excited about here, performance wise.
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In the rollercoaster ride that is a major league baseball season, the Milwaukee Brewers are currently in one of the dips. After starting the season off 4-9, the Crew was the best team in baseball over the next 27 games, going 21-6 from April 22nd to May 21st. Since that time, the Brewers have won only 10 times in 28 games and have fallen back to within 4 games of .500 for the first time since May 8th.
The hot streak of April/May seems like a distant memory at this point, largely because it was based on solid, inning eating starting pitching performances, and, since that time, one starter has landed in AAA (Manny Parra), one has landed on the DL (Dave Bush) and another has lost the effectiveness that he had shown early on (Braden Looper). Jeff Suppan and Yovanni Gallardo have been solid more often than not, but neither has been lights out effective in that time. The offense has been better than the starting pitching on balance, but has gone through extended slumps of its own and features several prominent members (Mike Cameron, JJ Hardy, Bill Hall) who have been dismal most of that time. The bullpen has held up its own, for the most part, though it is hard to know how long it can hold on with starters routinely failing to get out of the 4th or 5th inning.
So what is a general manager to do? After making the trade of the season in the middle of last year to acquire uber-starter CC Sabathia, there are expectations amongst many Brewers fans that he will pull off a major deal again to shore up this team's prospects heading to the stretch drive. Beyond the basic problem of it being fundamentally impossible for Melvin to match what he did by landing Sabathia last year in terms of impact, there is also the issue of trying to make a deal that makes sense for the Brewers now and later. When Melvin traded away top prospect Matt LaPorta and others for Sabathia last year, the team had been playing good baseball for well over a month leading up to the trade. Looking at the team, many people assessed (correctly, it turned out) that this was a move made to improve an already good baseball team and put them over the top and into the playoffs. The fundamental question facing Melvin as he heads to the trade deadline this season is: just how good is this baseball team?
If Melvin believes that this current slide is part of the normal ups and downs of a good baseball team, then it would make sense for him to deal some of the top prospects in the farm system for a few rental players to make another run at the playoffs. If, on the other hand, he decides that the rotation is just too thin and the lineup too full of holes for a few upgrades to be enough to get to close to 90 wins, he should probably hold off from dealing away too many valuable young pieces. Furthermore, he may want to look at unloading a few players to position himself to make some moves this offseason. That latter part would be a very tough sell to a fanbase that still is impatient for post season success, and would probably result in a PR backlash, but could be the best path to postseason success none the less.
So which path is the right one? It's honestly hard to say, because the team has been both very good and very bad for nearly equal portions of the season to this point. Which finally brings us to the main point: the next few weeks are shaping up to be of extreme importance to this season. If the players on hand want to get a shot at the postseason this year with this team, it would be in their best interest to give everything they have before the deadline to help convince Melvin that the right call is to trade off future assets for the here and now. If this group isn't good enough to keep it's head above water on it's own, it almost certainly isn't worth giving up much of the future to try to fill holes on an already leaky boat.
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3B Taylor Green
Last summer, the Cleveland Indians selected OF Michael Brantley instead of Taylor Green to complete the CC Sabathia trade. Brantley is having a rough time in with Cleveland's triple-A club hitting .264/.342/.352 to date. Green injured his wrinst during winter ball and got a late start his year, but he picked up where he left off in 2008. Green has posted a solid line in 33 games at Hunstville this year hitting .301/.382/.451 and has puts minds at ease that there would be any lingering effects from his wrist injury. Taylor Green earns our Prospect of the Week honor after posting a line of .346/.419/.654/1.073. Green was 9-16, with 2 homeruns and 4 walks.
Green was a junior college selection by the Brewers in the 2005 draft. He was named Brewers minor league player of the year award in 2007 while playing low-A ball in West Virginia. In 2008 Green posted a very solid line of .289/.382/.443/.825 in the pitcher friendly Florida state league. Last season Green showed great plate discipline with a 12.7 walk rate. Green was also good at limiting strikeouts with a 59 to 61 K/BB ratio. Green hit 15 homers from last year, which is very good power for the spacious Florida State League ballparks. On defense Green has played played both second and third base. He has settled in at third this season and projects to be at least at an average defender at that position.
The Brewers definitely have a need for more lefty bats in near future. In 2010, Green could be be called up for interleague play in the same way as Mat Gamel. Green could end up at third for the Brewers if Gamel can't stick there defensively, though there are questions of whether his power will play in a corner outfield position. Regardless where he endsup, Taylor Green is near the top of the list for the next wave of position prospects for the Brewers.
Three Up
RHP Evan Anudson: Anudson just keeps dealing with 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER and 5 K's in his start last week. You have to wonder when his promotion is coming with a 1.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the season.
LHP Chris Cody: With a 1.69 ERA since being promoted to AAA Cody has answered ever challenge the Brewers have thrown at him. Another solid start 8 IP, 7 H, 4 K's and 2 ER this week. Will he get a shot in the Brewers struggling rotation soon?
C Angel Salome: 3 2B, 1 3B and 1 HR led to .777 slugging percentage this week for Salome. Hopefully his bat continues to come alive.
Three Down
C Carlos Corporan: The Brewers other AAA catcher struggled with a 1-14 week. Corporan is a great defensive catcher but a .574 OPS on the season shows he is a long way from the show with his offense.
OF Lee Haydel: Horrendous is the only way to describe Haydels line .059/.059/.118 in 17 AB's last week. With a .294 season OBP, there isn't much of a chance for Haydel to use his speed.
2B Hernan Iribarren: Iribarren was 4-29 with 0 walks and extra base hits. I guess it is not hurricane season right now.
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The posting has been a little light lately, as I'm in the middle of a summer class and spending a lot of weekends on the road. We'll get back to more regular posts after this next week. In the meantime, here is the Prospect of the Week for 6/8 to 6/14: RHP Wily Peralta: Ever wish that the Brewers had a Carlos Marmol to call their very own? You know, the monster velocity, power slider and multi-inning ability? With a little bit of luck, in a few years they just might, if Wily Peralta keeps having weeks like this one. In 8 innings (covering two appearances), Peralta allowed 1 earned run and 9 hits while posting an absurd 14:1 K:BB ratio. Keeping with the Timber Rattlers tandem approach, he started one game and closed another, though most people seem to think that his future ultimately lies in the bullpen down the road.
Peralta was signed as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic in 2005 and posted some mediocre numbers in 2006 before being shut down and eventually having Tommy John surgery. He came back strong in 2008 pitching at Short Season Helena, where he struck out 36 and only walked 8 in 29 innings before throwing 5 forgettable innings in low A West Virginia at the very end of the year. According to Baseball America, Peralta features a fastball that sits in the mid 90's but can hit 97-98 at times and his slider is quickly improving. Everyone from Baseball America to John Sickels seems to think Peralta is likely ticketed for the pen down the road. There is a chance, though, if he can upgrade his changeup to a solid pitch, that he might be able to stick as a starter. Right now, the T-Rats are starting him every other time out and undoubtedly just working on building up his inning count in the minors. If he the team decides to keep the 20 year old in the rotation long term, he'll probably move pretty slowly. A move to the pen would probably speed up the timetable to the majors considerably. Either way, Peralta is one of the growing stable of young power arms sitting in the Brewers low minors that offer hope for a homegrown pitching staff sometime down the road.
Three Up
LHP Evan Fredrickson: We (and others) have been hard on Fredrickson this year, but he was pretty good in his 9 innings last week. He allowed 9 hits, 2 earned runs and struck out 6, but the big headline was that he walked no batters in those 9 innings, which is a major step forward for him.
LHP Zach Braddock: Braddock is still working in relief at Brevard County, and doing an outstanding job. He struck out 6 and walked none in 3 2/3 scoreless innings last week. It will be interesting to see how long Braddock stays in his current role with this current team.
OF Caleb Gindl: Gindl seems determined to keep hitting for power, even if he is playing in the Florida State League. In his 8 hits last week, 3 went for doubles and 2 were round trippers. He also took a couple of walks, stole a couple of bases and hit for an overall line of (.308/.357/.654).
Three Down
RHP Omar Aguilar: It seems like a very long time ago that Omar Aguilar's name was bandied about as a potential reliever for the major league club this year. In 3 2/3 innings last week he gave up 7 hits and walked 3 while allowing 5 ER. The biggest difference for Aguilar is the batting average against, which is up to .298 from .191 in AA last season.
1B Chris Errecart: Errecart was 2 for 16 with 8 strikeouts, no extra base hits and no walks last week. Bill Hall and JJ Hardy probably think that's a bad week.
3B Kevin Melillo: Melillo was 2 for 17 with a double and 3 walks last week. He's 27 and playing in AA, so calling him a "prospect" is a bit of a reach, but did you really want to hear another rant about Jeremy Jeffress' walks?
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