Time For Julio To Go

This has been some time coming.

The notion that Jorge Julio isn't the best fit for this team right now has been kicked around by the writers here for a while, but we've been waiting to make the full case. If that time wasn't after he put the Brewers in danger of losing to the Cubs with a bad two thirds of an inning on May 9th, it's certainly after he effectively kicked away the game to the Marlins on Monday night, allowing the the 6 batters he faced to reach base in the 6th before being pulled. Julio was eventually credited with 5 earned runs after Todd Coffey allowed two more of his runners to score before striking out the side.

Macha's hands were somewhat tied on Monday by the twin facts that the bullpen had pitched 10 2/3 innings in the previous 3 days and Manny Parra, Braden Looper and Dave Bush will pitch the rest of this series. A good case can be made that this situation called for needing to get something out of Julio, who had racked up 4 straight scoreless appearances heading into the game Monday.

A strong case can also be made that Macha never should have had to consider using Julio at all, because he simply should not have been on the roster. Coming into the Monday's contest, Julio had allowed 13 hits and 14 walks in 17 1/3 innings pitched. Allowing that many baserunners is going to lead to nights like Monday on a fairly regular basis. Julio hasn't even been able to effectively soak up 3+ inning stints in Brewer losses this year, which is about the only benefit of having someone with those peripherals on the staff in the first place. The largest number of innings he had pitched in a game this year was 2, which he did twice. That just isn't a great enough benefit to justify the roster spot he is keeping away from someone else. Someone more worthy.

So just who is that person? Well, RJ Swindle has been up twice as a lefty specialist already this year, but he is largely limited to short duty and hasn't been all that impressive facing big leaguers. Sinkerballer Tim Dillard pitched some in the big leagues last year, but has been pretty successful starting in AAA this year (3.70 ERA in 58 2/3 innings) and it's probably best to leave him where he is in case he should be needed to start at some point. Omar Aguilar, the top closer prospect in the system, has been horrific this year and is in no shape for a callup.

That leaves Chris Smith as the best likely candidate to replace Julio, and he's earned the shot. Thus far this season he's pitched 30 2/3 innings over 19 games, struck out 34 while only walking 4. His batting average against is a healthy .234. All of that has added up to a 1.47 ERA and 10 saves. His stuff isn't great, but it's big league worthy:

Average 89-93 mph fastball with a power 82 mph breaking curve and a pretty good change-up. Good knowledge of pitching. Missed most of 2002 season after an ATV accident, from which he took a couple years to recover fully. Great preparation skills. Throws off-speed pitches for strikes, often at unexpected counts. Pounds the strike zone with great command, doesn't walk many batters. Works quickly on the mound. Similar style to Mike Mussina. Converted to a reliever in 2007 where he demonstrated some very good success.

The only knock against him is that he was pretty awful pitching for the Red Sox last year in the big leagues, posting a 7.85 ERA in 18 1/3 innings. It was the long ball that got him (6 HR) though, and his WHIP (1.36) makes one believe that he probably would be much, much better than this if called up now. At the very least, he isn't likely to walk himself into trouble very often and should be able to soak up multiple innings with ease. At best, Smith could give Macha another credible late relief option to get leads to Trevor Hoffman in the 9th.

Jorge Julio's stuff was worth the gamble, and I'm glad they took it. Clearly, though, he doesn't have a place in a contenders' bullpen these days, and it's up to the Brewers to fix the situation ASAP.

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