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July 2009 - Posts
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Yes, pull the trigger on Roy Halladay. It doesn't matter that the Brewers are floundering and a guy like Halladay can only help so much. If the Brewers want to compete next season, they need to make that bold move. Who knows, maybe the move for Halladay will straighten out the Crew this year? I wouldn't place bets on it, but anything can happen with that kind of a deal. Ultimately this is about setting up the Brewers for 2010, which may be the last legitimate season that they can make a run with the current group of players. As Brewers fans, we all loved CC Sabathia. Guess what? Roy Halladay is better than CC Sabathia. Pitching in the AL East, Halladay consistently put up a WHIP around 1.000, ERAs around or below 3.00 and has an insane 5.28 and 6.15 K/BB. CC is good*, but he really isn't Roy Halladay good. *I really wish Sabathia the best in New York, but he's really getting the East Coast treatment this year. I've heard commentators say that CC is having a "meh" year. When you look at his stats with the Yankees this year, their pretty much in line with his career stats. Granted, his career stats aren't quite as good as the last couple seasons, but still he moved from the AL Central to the NL Central and his numbers received a huge boost. Now going from the NL Central to the AL East, he's taken an expected hit. That happens when you face the Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays (Halladay wouldn't be on the market if they were in another division), and even the Orioles. Sorry for stealing the Posterisk. Adding Halladay to the rotation gives the Brewers a chance in 2010. We don't know what will happen with Dave Bush, Braden Looper is only signed through the end of the season (he does have an option) and Jeff Suppan isn't going to magically start throwing like he's a $12M pitcher. At least put Halladay and Yovani Gallardo at the top of the rotation and see where the chips fall. Yes, this will gut the farm system. Yes, the Brewers are only going to be competitive if they produce their own talent. The problem is that unless everything breaks right, they'll always have holes they can't fill. Is it better to hover around 80 wins and hope to sneak in every few years, or go for broke and go into full-scale rebuilding mode after taking a shot? I don't know, but either way, the front office should commit to one philosophy. The Brewers don't have the cash to lure free agents, so they have to do it with their minor league talent. They need to give up Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar and Angel Salome or Jon Lucroy, and some other significant pieces. That is the price to play with the big boys and I don't think they can have it both ways. The front office needs to make a bold move. There won't be many more season where Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are hitting back-to-back in the line-up as they enter their primes. Cliff Lee is off the market and Roy Halladay is the biggest name left out there. Go get him, take a shot and worry about the future in 2011.
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Things are getting ugly. Really ugly. After dropping another game to the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night, the Milwaukee Brewers are 49 and 51 exactly 100 games into the season with 62 left to play. They are lucky to be sitting only 4 1/2 games back of the division leading St. Louis Cardinals, but the real problem is that there are two other teams between them and the division lead. Now the Houston Astros may not be the best bet in the world to be even where they are and a good candidate for regression, but the Chicago Cubs, who are currently only 1/2 a game back of the division lead, have more talent than their mediocre record would indicate. If the Brewers want to win the NL Central, they're going to have to post better records than all three of those teams from here on out, which is a tall order given the current state of the Brewers pitching, specifically the starting rotation. Yovani Gallardo has been a solid and steady performer this year, but beyond him things get dicey. Dave Bush is currently on the disabled list and doesn't figure to return for at least a couple of weeks, and how he fares at that point with his weakened arm is anyone's guess. Jeff Suppan has had back to back terrible starts and is now on his way to visit the doctor himself. Manny Parra has been somewhat better since returning from AAA, but still struggles with his command and is far from a good bet for a quality start at this point. Braden Looper is quite up and down, sometimes able to effectively eat innings and keep the team in the game and other times allowing the big hit that takes him out of a start. Beyond that you've got guys like Carlos Villanueva, Tim Dillard and Mike Burns as options, and none of them has been able to do much of anything in the chances they have been given of late. General Manager Doug Melvin has to be questioning the wisdom of trading away future assets in the form of prospects trying to rent players to help stem the tide of bad starts at this point. Even if he is able to plug one leak and upgrade a spot, who is to say that another leak isn't going to undermine that effort completely? Chasing a long shot at success this season almost certainly doesn't make a lot of sense, but what would make sense for this team at this time? It probably isn't feasible for Melvin to become a full scale "seller" at this point, because there is enough talent on this team to build the foundation of a winner next year with a few tweaks. He could look to trade off a few expiring contracts on the books, specifically those of Mike Cameron, Trevor Hoffman or even JJ Hardy (who can opt for free agency after 2010), but could those players bring back the kind of impact starting pitching the Brewers need in 2010 and beyond? What's more, what would declaring failure with 62 games left in the season do to attendance in those games and the long term momentum the franchise has built up in the public relations arena? The number one priority for the Brewers should be to get back on it's feet ASAP and take advantage of having Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun in the same lineup while they do, and that means trying to get the rotation in order for 2010. If they can't get legitimate starting pitching in return for what they have in expiring assets, then they need to find a different way to pull that off. Which brings us to the idea of trading for one of the two legitimate ace pitchers available on the trade market at this point, Cleveland's Cliff Lee or Toronto's Roy Halladay. Both Lee and Halladay (don't buy that stuff about Hallday being able to opt out, it's not going to happen) are under team control through the 2010 season and as such they would be great places to start building a 2010 rotation, along with the added benefit of stabilizing this years squad. Should the Brewers fall out of contention next season, barring injury they should be able to flip either one for a solid return in pitching prospects, so there is minimal risk of trading for them and getting little in return. Of course this would be contingent on being able to come up with an offer to get one of those two players that isn't out of line with their value, which appears to be a significant stumbling block right now. Perhaps it is so much of one that this isn't a realistic idea at all.
Still, if the Brewers are going to give up any prospects of signifigance at this point, the player coming in must be someone who can help next year as well as this year, because chasing strictly after this year is quickly looking likely to be throwing good money after bad. The Brewers are going to need to start looking at revamping the rotation for 2010, and if something constructive can be done now on that front without signifagantly undermining respectablity in 2009 they should seriously be looked at.
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RHP Maverick Lasker:
When the Brewers drafted Lasker in the 5th round last year, he was somewhat overlooked because of all the early picks the Brewers had in that draft. If he was noticed at all, it was for having parents that must have seen Top Gun way too many times, and the fact that he was signed away from a commitment to Tony Gwynn's San Diego State. He didn't pitch professionally last season while recovering from a sore arm, but is off to a solid start to his pro career this season. Last week, Lasker threw 5 innings while allowing 3 hits, no walks, no runs and 5 strikeouts.
Thus far this season Lasker has pitched 23 innings, allowed 21 hits, 9 earned runs while posting a 15:6 K:BB ratio. He is limiting batters to .253 batting average and has nearly twice as many groundballs to flyballs. According to John Sickels, Lasker throws a "90-93 MPH fastball, a good curveball and good changeup," and is athletic enough to add velocity as he grows into his 6'2" frame.
Lasker won't turn 20 until next February, so the Brewers have plenty of time to be careful with Lasker and take precautions to try and keep him healthy. He does a good job pounding the zone and producing grounders, but a strikeout spike would help up his stock considerably. The absolute best case scenario for Maverick is probably a mid-rotation starter for a good team, but he'll have to stay healthy and maintain or even improve his velocity to get to that point.
Three Up
RHP Eric Arnett: The Brewers first round pick out of Indiana University finally had a performance worth writing home about last Monday in Helena, pitching three hitless and scoreless innings. We'll overlook the fact that he walked 2 and only struck out 1.
RHP R.J. Seidel: The La Crosse native had a rough go of it rehabbing in Arizona (6.67 ERA in 28 1/3 innings), but stepped it up right away on his promotion to Wisconsin. He allowed 1 hit on a home run, but that was his only run allowed in 4 1/3 innings and he struck out 7 hitters while only walking 1.
LHP Caleb Thielbar: The Brewers popped the South Dakota State lefty in the 18th round of this June's draft, and he's done very well so far facing mostly younger competition in the Arizona League, posting a 2.66 ERA in 23 2/3 innings. He struck out 6 and walked 1 while allowing only 1 run in 8 innings last week. We'll have to wait and see how he does facing more appropriate competition, but this is a good start.
Three Down
RHP Evan Anundsen: Anundsen had not given up more than 3 earned runs in any of his previous nine starts for the Brevard County Manatees, but that probably isn't much consolation after giving up 7 hits, 2 walks and 9 earned runs in 1 2/3 innings last week. It's hard to earn a late season promotion when you've got something like that on your recent resume.
3B Taylor Green: Green, one of the Brewers bevy of potential but not surefire position prospects, had a rough week down at AA Huntsville. He went 2 for 19 with a double and a couple walks. Of course as this is being written Green already has a HR this week to his credit. Perhaps he can go from the outhouse to the penthouse in one week.
RHP Cody Scarpetta: Scarpetta is having a pretty decent year (3.91 ERA and 88 K's in 71 1/3 innings), but he'll want to forget his start on Sunday. In 3 2/3 innings, the fireballer allowed 4 hits, 6 walks and 8 earned runs for the Timber Rattlers. He needs to tighten up on the walks (41 this season) going forward to avoid repeats of this type of performance going forward.
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Now that we've had a few days to digest the Felipe Lopez trade (Jim of Bernie's Crew does an excellent breakdown of it here), it makes sense to think about what, if anything, Doug Melvin might do next. Before making that trade, one could question just what Melvin's state of mind towards the team might be. Melvin has said that a big part of the reason why he traded for CC Sabathia was that the team was playing well at the time and CC was not acquired to "save" the team, but to help it take the next step.The Brewers obviously aren't playing that well this year at the trade deadline, so is it reasonable to assume that he won't be as willing to make a move like that this season? Does that eliminate the possibility of trading for Roy Halladay?
Melvin has repeatedly hinted around that he doesn't want to move Alcides Escobar or Mat Gamel, which would really limit his options on the trade market. Honestly, it may well take both of them to acquire Halladay from the Jays, and probably even more. If something could be worked out as far as guaranteeing that Halladay won't demand a trade at the end of this year, the Brewers would have him for this season and next at a reasonable dollar figure. Given that none of Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart are locked in beyond 2011 at this point, there is a strong case to be made for trying to take a shot with what they have right now, knowing that a rebuild will be needed after Halladay walks after the 2010 season. It will just be up to Melvin at that point to assess if the future cost of losing those prospects can be justified by Halladay and the rest of the team in the next season and a half.
As Tom Haudricourt pointed out in the link about Halladay being able to demand a trade, it seems unlikely that Melvin will be willing to make that sort of sacrifice. That may be right, but Jim's assessment over at Bernie's Crew that it is "doubtful" that "Melvin will address the starting rotation via a trade" before the deadline seems problematic. The issue is that by acquiring Lopez, Melvin has shown he is willing to give up second or third tier talent to improve the club this year. Why would he stop at this point when there are other options available on the market in the next 10 days? The Diamondbacks have a couple 3/4 starter types in Doug Davis and Jon Garland available at the right price, and Seattle would move Jarrod Washburn or Erik Bedard for the right offer. Those are just the most obvious guys available.
It's the last of those that seems most interesting, largely because Bedard has (by far) the highest ceiling of any of the four players. In 80 innings this year, Bedard has a 2.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and an 84:30 K:BB ratio playing in the American League. The main concern is that he's already missed time with a shoulder injury this year and is still working himself back into form. He also has some issues pitching deep into games, though those would probably be somewhat lessened by moving to the National League.
So how could something like that be worked out to both give Seattle value and protect the Brewers in the case of injury? You structure the deal similar to the way the Brewers structured their deal with Cleveland for Sabathia last year. Part of the deal contingent on the "success" of the trade. For Sabathia it was making the playoffs, but for Bedard it would probably involve a certain number of starts. You have the teams agree on several players of varying value to be in the trade. If Bedard reaches the magic number of starts, Seattle gets to pick the player from the pool. If he fails to make that number of starts, Melvin picks the player. Given the relationship between Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik and Doug Melvin, it's not hard to see something like this being workable if all sides are willing to play the game. It likely gives Jack Z. a chance to land a better prospect than he would get in a straight trade, because any team trading for Bedard has to be concerned about the injury situation. It protects Melvin from giving up elite talent to land a guy who then ends up on the DL.
Regardless, it seems unlikely that Melvin is done dealing at this point, and the starting rotation is clearly the biggest area of need on this team as it stands today. Expect something to be done to try to help out the rotation between now and the 31st. [EDIT: It was brought to my attention that the Mariners are currently only 4 games back in the AL West. Unless they fall a little further back before the deadline, a major "sell" move like this would probably be unfeasable for a new GM trying to win over a fansbase. That makes the trade somewhat less likely.] [EDIT #2: Talked with Jim a bit and I wanted to clarify what he meant in regards to the Brewers aquiring another starter via trade. What he meant was that he believed it wasn't likely they would trade for one before Burns next start, not that they wouldn't trade for one period.]
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SS Josh Prince:
The theme for the week is walks. With 7 walks and a .548 OBP, our prospect of the week is Helena shortstop Josh Prince. Besides showing some major on base skills this week, Prince also hit .416 this week, had 3 doubles and 4 steals.
The Brewers selected Prince with the 105th pick of this year's draft out of Tulane. He also spent time in the Northwoods league with Green Bay in the summer. Prince was not a great hitter in college, but improved after having an astigmatism problem corrected last year and went on to have a big junior year. Playing for short season Helena, Prince has a line of .323/.445/.375/.820 on the season. The .445 OBP is impressive, but no homers in the hitter-friendly Pioneer League is mildly concerning, though he does have 5 doubles. Prince has shown above average speed with 16 steals already on the season while only being caught 5 times. The best part of Prince's game is his solid defense. John Sickels called Prince "a very reliable defender."
With the exception of Alcides Escobar, the Brewers' system is very thin on shortstop prospects. With good plate discipline, speed and defense, Josh Prince has some skills that he can build on as a prospect. College players are expected to do well in rookie ball, so the Brewers will have to see how Prince does against more advanced competition next year and will have to see if he can develop some functional power. If he can do that, he'll be a legitimate candidate to start at some point down the road.
Three Up
LHP Chris Cody: Cody continues to hold his own at AAA. He allowed 1 ER in 7 innings with 6 K's. The only concern with Cody's 29 K's in 48 2/3 innings at Nashville is a significant decrease from his walk rate in AA.
OF Calib Gindl: Continuing with the walk theme, Gindl had 10 walks and .500 OBP last week. He only had 3 hits, but hit a homer and a double. Adam Dunn would be proud.
C Jon Lucroy: Last week, Lucroy had a 5 walks, a .450 OBP and .533 slugging percentage. His batting average for the season is lower than his standards (.249) but his OBP (.367) is just fine. A patient catcher with some pop is hardly a bad thing to have in the majors these days.
Three Down
RHP Eric Arnett: Another week and another bad outing for Arnett with 2 ER in his 2 innings. He has a 8.31 ERA after 5 outings. To be fair to Arnett, he is probably fatigued from overuse during the college baseball season, but this is still a little unsettling.
RHP Seth Lintz: Lintz's struggles continue this week with 4 walks, 5 hits and 3 ER in 4 innings. 18 K's in 16 2/3 IP shows Lintz has some stuff but he also has shown terrible control with 20 walks.
RHP Alex Periad: Periad's comeback hit a setback this week. In 1 inning he allowed 5 hits and 3 ER. He only has 8 K's in 21 1/3 innings this year coming off an injury.
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