Why Trading For a Stud Can Still Make Sense

Things are getting ugly. Really ugly.

After dropping another game to the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night, the Milwaukee Brewers are 49 and 51 exactly 100 games into the season with 62 left to play. They are lucky to be sitting only 4 1/2 games back of the division leading St. Louis Cardinals, but the real problem is that there are two other teams between them and the division lead. Now the Houston Astros may not be the best bet in the world to be even where they are and a good candidate for regression, but the Chicago Cubs, who are currently only 1/2 a game back of the division lead, have more talent than their mediocre record would indicate. If the Brewers want to win the NL Central, they're going to have to post better records than all three of those teams from here on out, which is a tall order given the current state of the Brewers pitching, specifically the starting rotation.

Yovani Gallardo has been a solid and steady performer this year, but beyond him things get dicey. Dave Bush is currently on the disabled list and doesn't figure to return for at least a couple of weeks, and how he fares at that point with his weakened arm is anyone's guess. Jeff Suppan has had back to back terrible starts and is now on his way to visit the doctor himself. Manny Parra has been somewhat better since returning from AAA, but still struggles with his command and is far from a good bet for a quality start at this point. Braden Looper is quite up and down, sometimes able to effectively eat innings and keep the team in the game and other times allowing the big hit that takes him out of a start. Beyond that you've got guys like Carlos Villanueva, Tim Dillard and Mike Burns as options, and none of them has been able to do much of anything in the chances they have been given of late.

General Manager Doug Melvin has to be questioning the wisdom of trading away future assets in the form of prospects trying to rent players to help stem the tide of bad starts at this point. Even if he is able to plug one leak and upgrade a spot, who is to say that another leak isn't going to undermine that effort completely? Chasing a long shot at success this season almost certainly doesn't make a lot of sense, but what would make sense for this team at this time?

It probably isn't feasible for Melvin to become a full scale "seller" at this point, because there is enough talent on this team to build the foundation of a winner next year with a few tweaks. He could look to trade off a few expiring contracts on the books, specifically those of Mike Cameron, Trevor Hoffman or even JJ Hardy (who can opt for free agency after 2010), but could those players bring back the kind of impact starting pitching the Brewers need in 2010 and beyond? What's more, what would declaring failure with 62 games left in the season do to attendance in those games and the long term momentum the franchise has built up in the public relations arena?

The number one priority for the Brewers should be to get back on it's feet ASAP and take advantage of having Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun in the same lineup while they do, and that means trying to get the rotation in order for 2010. If they can't get legitimate starting pitching in return for what they have in expiring assets, then they need to find a different way to pull that off. Which brings us to the idea of trading for one of the two legitimate ace pitchers available on the trade market at this point, Cleveland's Cliff Lee or Toronto's Roy Halladay.

Both Lee and Halladay (don't buy that stuff about Hallday being able to opt out, it's not going to happen) are under team control through the 2010 season and as such they would be great places to start building a 2010 rotation, along with the added benefit of stabilizing this years squad. Should the Brewers fall out of contention next season, barring injury they should be able to flip either one for a solid return in pitching prospects, so there is minimal risk of trading for them and getting little in return. Of course this would be contingent on being able to come up with an offer to get one of those two players that isn't out of line with their value, which appears to be a significant stumbling block right now. Perhaps it is so much of one that this isn't a realistic idea at all.

Still, if the Brewers are going to give up any prospects of signifigance at this point, the player coming in must be someone who can help next year as well as this year, because chasing strictly after this year is quickly looking likely to be throwing good money after bad. The Brewers are going to need to start looking at revamping the rotation for 2010, and if something constructive can be done now on that front without signifagantly undermining respectablity in 2009 they should seriously be looked at.

Comments

 

Ry's Guy said:

You make some good points, especially on gearing up for another run next season while Prince is here. Fact of the matter is Escobar is our future at SS, not Hardy, and unfortunately he's about the only prospect I could see who could center a deal that would net us either Lee or Halladay.

I think there are players we can go after who guys like Cameron and Hoffman could net, like an actual 2 or 3 pitcher who has a career ERA under 4, and a guy who we could keep for a couple years. That shows determination to fans, but not "we're going for it this year". We're down two starters, I think we need to get SOMEONE. Nice thing is that when Prince does become too expensive for us to keep, he's gonna get us some nice young prospects, hopefully pitching.

July 29, 2009 10:05 AM
 

rePete said:

This is a bad place to be if your Doug Melvin.  We can't get a pitcher past the 5th inning and we have to score 8+ runs a game to win.  But, you're still not out of it in the division.  Problem is you have to roll the dice within a few days.

I don't see a huge turnaround with this team right now.  We've stunk the place up for almost a month now and they all have that "deer in the headlight" look when they're at the park.  Maybe move Hardy to the Red Sox for one of their strong pitching prospects?  Cam & Hoffman are good options too.  Hart may be attractive to someone too?  

Jack Z. was a great at drafting position players, but he forgot about the value of pitching.  Our cupboard is bare in the minors and we've got a sad bunch of pitchers right now.  Put the "buyers" card away and post the "for sale" sign.  And every prospect/player you get in a trade better reside on a pitching mound!

July 29, 2009 11:39 AM

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