A Rotation Platoon?

Ryan Topp — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 07:00:00 GMT

Apparently, Ned Yost is thinking outside the box again. Not that it's a bad thing. I was in favor of batting Jason Kendall 9th, after all. I'm still not quite sure why that was abandoned, exactly.

The basic idea to this latest brain storm is this: Dave Bush has been so good at home and lousy on the road and Seth McClung has been better on the road than at home, so the team is considering platooning them so that Bush would start at home and McClung on the road.

On the very surface, that sounds somewhat logical and appealing. The acquisition of CC Sabathia means that when Jeff Suppan returns from the disabled list someone will have to be moved out of the rotation. Ben Sheets, Manny Parra and Sabathia all have earned spots in the rotation. Jeff Suppan has a large contract and his track record of summer slumps suggests that if the Brewers stick with him, they will be rewarded later in the year. That leaves Bush and McClung, and both have largely pitched well of late, especially Bush. Still, someone has to go and it's going to be one of them.

Of course, once you go beyond the surface notion of creating this "super starter" out of two different guys, it gets a bit trickier:

Is it really reasonable to expect that in both cases that there are real reasons that McClung pitches better on the road and Bush is better at home? Because if it's not, then there is little reason to think that these trends can be counted on to continue. Bush has a long track record of being better at home than on the road, but not nearly at this large a differential. McClung has an ERA almost two full points higher on the road versus at home in his career. So isn't it likely he would revert back on the road anyway?
These are real human beings and they have routines they are used to. Teams do have starters make appearances out of the pen or have relievers make spot starts from time to time, of course. What they do not do all that often anymore is ask players to consistently shuffle between the two roles. It is an open question how a player being asked to shuffle between these roles would do.
It takes up two roster spots and leaves the manager short a reliever out of necessity for long stretches when you figure that a player who is being asked to potentially make a "full start" is going to need at least three days rest before and after each start if you want them to be effective and not worry about over use. That 4th day they are only going to be available for limited duty if they are coming off of a full start or are being expected to make one in 4 days. Lets take a look at how this might work over a period where they alternate starts:

Day 1: Bush starts at home / McClung fully available
Day 2: Bush unavailable / McClung marginally available
Day 3: Bush unavailable / McClung unavailable
Day 4: Bush unavailable / McClung unavailable
Day 5: Bush marginally available / McClung unavailable
Day 6: Bush fully available / McClung starts on the road
Day 7: Bush marginally available / McClung unavailable
Day 8: Bush unavailable / McClung unavailable
Day 9: Bush unavailable / McClung unavailable
Day 10: Bush unavailable / McClung marginally available
Day 11: Bush starts at home / McClung fully available

So, the only day that the one not starting would be fully available would be the day that the other is starting. Other than that, they wouldn't be available for more than some limited duty. You also end up with 4 days in 11 where neither one would be available at all, meaning any short start on one of those days would have to be covered by the other relievers on the staff.

All in all, I just don't see there being a likely enough upside to justify the definite cost.

Why keeping Vargas, Capuano and Bush matters.

Ryan Topp — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 20:31:52 GMT

If you frequent Brewers message boards such as the one on this site and others or turn on a sports talk radio show this spring training, you are likely to run across someone opining that the Brewers should just "dump" some combination of Dave Bush, Chris Capuano and Claudio Vargas. The logic behind such sentiments likely has just as much with those people wanting to see the young trio of starters (Yovanni Gallardo, Manny Parra and Carlos Villanueva) given spots over the other three, though I suspect some would literally just like to see them gone, never to return.

The problem, of course, is that injuries are commonplace among pitchers. Any Brewer fan following Ben Sheets' career over the last few years should be intimately aware of this issue. A quick survey of last years NL teams showed that, on average, teams had to get 31.6 starts from starters other than their top 5 (by number of starts made). Now, that number of course doesn't just reflect injury, but also call ups who became available mid-year and guys who washed out of the rotation and needed to be replaced. But still, when you consider Sheets proclivity for injury and the fact that Gallardo, Villanueva and Parra have a combined 31 major league starts, the chances are good that the team is going to need to get starts from someone outside of that group.

What the Brewers have going for them is that they have 8 guys capable of posting ERA's around 5 and lower. Caludio Vargas posted a 5.09 ERA and even in "bad seasons," Bush was at 5.12 and Capuano checked in at 5.10. According to this from 2003-2007 the average 4th spot in an NL rotation yielded a 4.95 ERA and the average 5th spot got shelled to the tune of a 6.98 ERA, any one of those pitchers is going to keep the back spots of the rotation from slipping down below average.

There is probably room to trade one of the three, should an suitable offer come along. But even if the Brewers do decide to go with a rotation including the three youngsters once Gallardo is healed, chances are good they'll need one of these guys for a while and another at least at some point in the season.

Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Between the Green Pillars : Dave Bush

A Rotation Platoon?

Why keeping Vargas, Capuano and Bush matters.