Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Between the Green Pillars : Doug Melvin

Why Trading For a Stud Can Still Make Sense

Ryan Topp — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 08:53:00 GMT

Things are getting ugly. Really ugly.

After dropping another game to the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night, the Milwaukee Brewers are 49 and 51 exactly 100 games into the season with 62 left to play. They are lucky to be sitting only 4 1/2 games back of the division leading St. Louis Cardinals, but the real problem is that there are two other teams between them and the division lead. Now the Houston Astros may not be the best bet in the world to be even where they are and a good candidate for regression, but the Chicago Cubs, who are currently only 1/2 a game back of the division lead, have more talent than their mediocre record would indicate. If the Brewers want to win the NL Central, they're going to have to post better records than all three of those teams from here on out, which is a tall order given the current state of the Brewers pitching, specifically the starting rotation.

Yovani Gallardo has been a solid and steady performer this year, but beyond him things get dicey. Dave Bush is currently on the disabled list and doesn't figure to return for at least a couple of weeks, and how he fares at that point with his weakened arm is anyone's guess. Jeff Suppan has had back to back terrible starts and is now on his way to visit the doctor himself. Manny Parra has been somewhat better since returning from AAA, but still struggles with his command and is far from a good bet for a quality start at this point. Braden Looper is quite up and down, sometimes able to effectively eat innings and keep the team in the game and other times allowing the big hit that takes him out of a start. Beyond that you've got guys like Carlos Villanueva, Tim Dillard and Mike Burns as options, and none of them has been able to do much of anything in the chances they have been given of late.

General Manager Doug Melvin has to be questioning the wisdom of trading away future assets in the form of prospects trying to rent players to help stem the tide of bad starts at this point. Even if he is able to plug one leak and upgrade a spot, who is to say that another leak isn't going to undermine that effort completely? Chasing a long shot at success this season almost certainly doesn't make a lot of sense, but what would make sense for this team at this time?

It probably isn't feasible for Melvin to become a full scale "seller" at this point, because there is enough talent on this team to build the foundation of a winner next year with a few tweaks. He could look to trade off a few expiring contracts on the books, specifically those of Mike Cameron, Trevor Hoffman or even JJ Hardy (who can opt for free agency after 2010), but could those players bring back the kind of impact starting pitching the Brewers need in 2010 and beyond? What's more, what would declaring failure with 62 games left in the season do to attendance in those games and the long term momentum the franchise has built up in the public relations arena?

The number one priority for the Brewers should be to get back on it's feet ASAP and take advantage of having Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun in the same lineup while they do, and that means trying to get the rotation in order for 2010. If they can't get legitimate starting pitching in return for what they have in expiring assets, then they need to find a different way to pull that off. Which brings us to the idea of trading for one of the two legitimate ace pitchers available on the trade market at this point, Cleveland's Cliff Lee or Toronto's Roy Halladay.

Both Lee and Halladay (don't buy that stuff about Hallday being able to opt out, it's not going to happen) are under team control through the 2010 season and as such they would be great places to start building a 2010 rotation, along with the added benefit of stabilizing this years squad. Should the Brewers fall out of contention next season, barring injury they should be able to flip either one for a solid return in pitching prospects, so there is minimal risk of trading for them and getting little in return. Of course this would be contingent on being able to come up with an offer to get one of those two players that isn't out of line with their value, which appears to be a significant stumbling block right now. Perhaps it is so much of one that this isn't a realistic idea at all.

Still, if the Brewers are going to give up any prospects of signifigance at this point, the player coming in must be someone who can help next year as well as this year, because chasing strictly after this year is quickly looking likely to be throwing good money after bad. The Brewers are going to need to start looking at revamping the rotation for 2010, and if something constructive can be done now on that front without signifagantly undermining respectablity in 2009 they should seriously be looked at.

Assessing the Next Step

Ryan Topp — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 20:32:00 GMT

Now that we've had a few days to digest the Felipe Lopez trade (Jim of Bernie's Crew does an excellent breakdown of it here), it makes sense to think about what, if anything, Doug Melvin might do next. Before making that trade, one could question just what Melvin's state of mind towards the team might be. Melvin has said that a big part of the reason why he traded for CC Sabathia was that the team was playing well at the time and CC was not acquired to "save" the team, but to help it take the next step.The Brewers obviously aren't playing that well this year at the trade deadline, so is it reasonable to assume that he won't be as willing to make a move like that this season? Does that eliminate the possibility of trading for Roy Halladay?

Melvin has repeatedly hinted around that he doesn't want to move Alcides Escobar or Mat Gamel, which would really limit his options on the trade market. Honestly, it may well take both of them to acquire Halladay from the Jays, and probably even more. If something could be worked out as far as guaranteeing that Halladay won't demand a trade at the end of this year, the Brewers would have him for this season and next at a reasonable dollar figure. Given that none of Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart are locked in beyond 2011 at this point, there is a strong case to be made for trying to take a shot with what they have right now, knowing that a rebuild will be needed after Halladay walks after the 2010 season. It will just be up to Melvin at that point to assess if the future cost of losing those prospects can be justified by Halladay and the rest of the team in the next season and a half.

As Tom Haudricourt pointed out in the link about Halladay being able to demand a trade, it seems unlikely that Melvin will be willing to make that sort of sacrifice. That may be right, but Jim's assessment over at Bernie's Crew that it is "doubtful" that "Melvin will address the starting rotation via a trade" before the deadline seems problematic. The issue is that by acquiring Lopez, Melvin has shown he is willing to give up second or third tier talent to improve the club this year. Why would he stop at this point when there are other options available on the market in the next 10 days? The Diamondbacks have a couple 3/4 starter types in Doug Davis and Jon Garland available at the right price, and Seattle would move Jarrod Washburn or Erik Bedard for the right offer. Those are just the most obvious guys available.

It's the last of those that seems most interesting, largely because Bedard has (by far) the highest ceiling of any of the four players. In 80 innings this year, Bedard has a 2.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and an 84:30 K:BB ratio playing in the American League. The main concern is that he's already missed time with a shoulder injury this year and is still working himself back into form. He also has some issues pitching deep into games, though those would probably be somewhat lessened by moving to the National League.

So how could something like that be worked out to both give Seattle value and protect the Brewers in the case of injury? You structure the deal similar to the way the Brewers structured their deal with Cleveland for Sabathia last year. Part of the deal contingent on the "success" of the trade. For Sabathia it was making the playoffs, but for Bedard it would probably involve a certain number of starts. You have the teams agree on several players of varying value to be in the trade. If Bedard reaches the magic number of starts, Seattle gets to pick the player from the pool. If he fails to make that number of starts, Melvin picks the player. Given the relationship between Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik and Doug Melvin, it's not hard to see something like this being workable if all sides are willing to play the game. It likely gives Jack Z. a chance to land a better prospect than he would get in a straight trade, because any team trading for Bedard has to be concerned about the injury situation. It protects Melvin from giving up elite talent to land a guy who then ends up on the DL.

Regardless, it seems unlikely that Melvin is done dealing at this point, and the starting rotation is clearly the biggest area of need on this team as it stands today. Expect something to be done to try to help out the rotation between now and the 31st.

[EDIT: It was brought to my attention that the Mariners are currently only 4 games back in the AL West. Unless they fall a little further back before the deadline, a major "sell" move like this would probably be unfeasable for a new GM trying to win over a fansbase. That makes the trade somewhat less likely.]

[EDIT #2: Talked with Jim a bit and I wanted to clarify what he meant in regards to the Brewers aquiring another starter via trade. What he meant was that he believed it wasn't likely they would trade for one before Burns next start, not that they wouldn't trade for one period.]

Surviving The Next Few Weeks

Ryan Topp — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 20:38:15 GMT

In the rollercoaster ride that is a major league baseball season, the Milwaukee Brewers are currently in one of the dips. After starting the season off 4-9, the Crew was the best team in baseball over the next 27 games, going 21-6 from April 22nd to May 21st. Since that time, the Brewers have won only 10 times in 28 games and have fallen back to within 4 games of .500 for the first time since May 8th.

The hot streak of April/May seems like a distant memory at this point, largely because it was based on solid, inning eating starting pitching performances, and, since that time, one starter has landed in AAA (Manny Parra), one has landed on the DL (Dave Bush) and another has lost the effectiveness that he had shown early on (Braden Looper). Jeff Suppan and Yovanni Gallardo have been solid more often than not, but neither has been lights out effective in that time. The offense has been better than the starting pitching on balance, but has gone through extended slumps of its own and features several prominent members (Mike Cameron, JJ Hardy, Bill Hall) who have been dismal most of that time. The bullpen has held up its own, for the most part, though it is hard to know how long it can hold on with starters routinely failing to get out of the 4th or 5th inning.

So what is a general manager to do? After making the trade of the season in the middle of last year to acquire uber-starter CC Sabathia, there are expectations amongst many Brewers fans that he will pull off a major deal again to shore up this team's prospects heading to the stretch drive. Beyond the basic problem of it being fundamentally impossible for Melvin to match what he did by landing Sabathia last year in terms of impact, there is also the issue of trying to make a deal that makes sense for the Brewers now and later. When Melvin traded away top prospect Matt LaPorta and others for Sabathia last year, the team had been playing good baseball for well over a month leading up to the trade. Looking at the team, many people assessed (correctly, it turned out) that this was a move made to improve an already good baseball team and put them over the top and into the playoffs. The fundamental question facing Melvin as he heads to the trade deadline this season is: just how good is this baseball team?

If Melvin believes that this current slide is part of the normal ups and downs of a good baseball team, then it would make sense for him to deal some of the top prospects in the farm system for a few rental players to make another run at the playoffs. If, on the other hand, he decides that the rotation is just too thin and the lineup too full of holes for a few upgrades to be enough to get to close to 90 wins, he should probably hold off from dealing away too many valuable young pieces. Furthermore, he may want to look at unloading a few players to position himself to make some moves this offseason. That latter part would be a very tough sell to a fanbase that still is impatient for post season success, and would probably result in a PR backlash, but could be the best path to postseason success none the less.

So which path is the right one? It's honestly hard to say, because the team has been both very good and very bad for nearly equal portions of the season to this point. Which finally brings us to the main point: the next few weeks are shaping up to be of extreme importance to this season. If the players on hand want to get a shot at the postseason this year with this team, it would be in their best interest to give everything they have before the deadline to help convince Melvin that the right call is to trade off future assets for the here and now. If this group isn't good enough to keep it's head above water on it's own, it almost certainly isn't worth giving up much of the future to try to fill holes on an already leaky boat.

Corey Hart should be on the trading block

badger80 — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 20:38:14 GMT

"GM Doug Melvin told me any talk of the Brewers shopping RF Corey Hart is pure nonsense," Tom Haudricourt (twitter)

"The two clubs that called the Brewers on the weekend to see if Milwaukee really was making Corey Hart available heard that he is not on the block." Ken Rosenthal

I know there need to be some gamesmanship when it comes to making trades, but Doug Melvin is going a little overboard. Despite his faults and struggles, Corey Hart is a valuable ball player and what he adds to the Brewers shouldn't be overlooked. But he doesn't do anything that isn't replaceable. The Brewers farm system produces guys with bats and no position, so anyone occupying a corner outfield spot is expendable.

The only thing that can force Melvin to hold on to Hart so tightly is that he believes that Hart will be the starting center fielder in 2010. Mike Cameron has had a career year so far in 2009, and it won't make sense to pay for that production in 2010 when Cameron will be 37-years-old.

Hart has to be attractive to teams (not a surprise if clubs are calling on him). He's in his prime, has flashes of power and the speed to cover ground in the outfield and swipe bases. Also, he's still cheap for another couple seasons. He's a really nice piece in a trade since he can be paired with a good prospect. It also means that the Brewers should get a decent return. They aren't in a position where they need to trade Hart, but they can trade Hart is the right package comes along. It's good to be in that kind of position and the Brewers should take advantage of it if they have the oppotunity.

Why Jake Peavy Isn't a Good Idea

Ryan Topp — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 01:39:20 GMT

It's easy to understand why Brewer fans would get excited about the idea of landing Jake Peavy. He's a recent Cy Young winner, locked into a contract that isn't outlandish for the next few years and the Brewers lack an experienced, top flight starter to front their rotation. For the time being, it's a non-issue, though. General Manager Doug Melvin has flatly told anyone who will listen that he has not had contact with the Padres about the possibility of acquiring the power righty. MLB.com beat writer Adam McCalvy does an excellent job in this piece of not only dispelling the rumor, but chronicling it's origin, which seems to be an offhanded comment in Peter Gammons blog over the weekend.

So for now, at least, it would appear that the Brewers aren't trying to land Peavy. If they find themselves in the thick of a pennant race this summer, that could very easily change. Considering all the evidence, that probably wouldn't be a good thing. Why would landing a proven stud like Peavy be a bad thing for the Brewers? It wouldn't, necessarily, but there are a number of factors that when added up make him a risky proposition.

First off, Jake Peavy probably isn't quite as good as he appears on the surface. He has played his home games at Petco Park, which has been the best pitcher park in baseball since the day it opened. His career home ERA (2.77) is more than a point higher than his career ERA on the road (3.80). At home he gives up a home run every 14.4 innings while on the road it happens almost exactly twice as often, every 7.2 innings. Pitchers do generally pitch somewhat better at home than on the road. Dave Bush has an even larger career split in ERA, for instance. Also, it's not like Peavy's road numbers are bad; they are still pretty sound for a pitcher in this day and age. Still, a team expecting Peavy to be as good as his career numbers pitching half his games in Petco is likely to not quite get what they're paying for.

Which brings us to the matter of salary. As was alluded to in the opening, Peavy is signed to a contract that is reasonable compared to what pitchers of his resume get on the open market these days. He is owed 8 million in 2009, 15 million in 2010, 16 million in 2011, 17 million in 2012 and has a 22 million dollar option for 2013 with a 4 million dollar buyout. That's 60 million in guaranteed money, and more than 15 million a year for three straight years. Now, that is well worth it for Jake Peavy, "Cy Young Contender", but would it be worth it for Jake Peavy, "Inning Eater"? The Brewers would largely be casting their lot in with Peavy and his production in 2010-2012, because there isn't going to be a lot of money left over to pay for other needs. Plus, they are counting on him to stay healthy in that time.

On the surface, it wouldn't seem that Jake Peavy is a huge injury concern. Since becoming a full time starter in 2003, he's never made fewer than 27 starts and has four times made over 30 starts. That's not Greg Maddux/Tom Glavine reliable, but it's also not Ben Sheets/AJ Burnett semi-reliable or Carl Pavano/Mike Hampton "that guy's still on the roster?" either. Carlos Gomez of The Hardball Times took the time to break down Peavy's mechanics and his basic conclusion:

"Peavy is a max-effort pitcher with high risk/high reward mechanics. I happen to love pitchers who "go after it" even if they are considerably riskier. I would love to see Peavy clean up his mechanics in order to reduce the risk. However, I would not be in favor of him toning down his aggressiveness."

Peavy is heading into his late 20's now and this contract carries him through his age 31 season. He's generally missed at least a few starts every year, and with "max effort" mechanics that is almost certain to become a more, instead of less, frequent occurrence.

Finally, there is the matter of having to give something up to give him. He's under contract to the Padres, and has a no trade clause that allows him to block a trade to Milwaukee. If his agent is smart, he would demand that the Brewers pick up the option to make a trade happen, which would really up the price tag. Ultimately, he may not even be willing to do this at all. Even if Peavy is OK with the deal, the Brewers would need to put together a package of prospects that would both satisfy the Padres and likely outbid another suitor who may or may not already have Peavy's approval. As McCalvy noted, this probably means giving up Mat Gamel or Alcides Escobar and someone else of value, possibly Jeremy Jeffress. That is a steep price to pay, considering those players likely ability to start somewhere and be useful in the majors within a short time period.

In the end, if they could get him to waive his no trade clause, they would have to give up good talent to get him. There is a substantial risk that his numbers would regress playing half his games in Miller instead of Petco park, and that he may not even be able to stay on the field for 30+ starts a year anyway. For the priviledge of gving up the talent and assuming these risks, they would be commited to paying him 15+ million a year from 2010-12. When you add it all up, Peavy is just too risky for a mid-market team like the Brewers. If the Cubs do go out and land him, it will undoubtedly lead to shouts of joy audible to the border, but Peavy stands a good chance of being just the sort of player that can help continue the Cubs particular brand of success.