Ruling Circumstances

Ryan Topp — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 08:09:00 GMT

I've been kicking this blog post around for a while now, and I just never got around to writing and posting it. My immediate inspiration was this post in Rob Neyer's ESPN.com blog on the Red Sox overtaking the Rays, of all things. For those who aren't "Insiders" he starts by quoting a news story that talks about how Clay Buchholtz, who pitched a no-hitter last September, is being recalled to the majors while Justin Masterson, who's been more than adequate is probably going down. Then he says this:

You ever get the feeling the Red Sox mapped all this out from day one?

They didn't want Buchholz to pitch more than 180 innings this year, because he pitched only 148 innings last year. So when he got away from his fastball this spring, they gave him some time off before sending him to Pawtucket to re-establish his fastball command. Now he's on pace to finish the regular season with fewer than 180 innings. Right on target.

Same thing with Masterson. Last year he pitched 153 innings, and I'm sure the Red Sox don't want him topping 180 this season. Just wait; at some point Masterson is going to get a nice rest.

Of course, Masterson was sent down and is going to pitch out of the pen when he comes back up. That will put him in position to stay at or below the inning target. Buchholtz is right on target for his innings too. I agree with Rob, I think they had all this in mind and weren't going to let what was going on in the pennant race dictate changes to the plan to protect their young pitchers long term.

Back in spring training, I broached the subject of how to handle Manny Parra's inning workload. It was a hot topic then, because the Brewers were trying to figure out what to do with him and the other starting pitching candidates. In the end, Chris Capuano got hurt, they released Claudio Vargas and Manny opened the season in the rotation. He pitched well enough that when Yovanni Gallardo came back from his injury, Dave Bush was sent down. Carlos Villanueva's ineffectiveness as a starter caused him to be bumped in favor of Seth McClung. Until the Brewers acquired CC Sabathia this week, they really only had 5 legitimate options to start games, so the Parra issue was on the back burner. Sabathia's acquisition briefly brought the issue back up, until Jeff Suppan landed on the disabled list and left the team with 5 starters once again.

Looking back at some gamelogs from early in the season, it is apparent that the team had some plan going. They pulled Parra after 4 innings a few times despite pitch counts under 85. Of course, if they don't do those sorts of things in the second half, his innings per start is going to go up and he'll go upwards of his current 166 IP pace. The improvement he has shown leads me to believe that will probably be the case. From here on out, if he averages 6 innings per start and makes a start every 5th day in the second half, he'll end up with about 177 innings. That would be 44 more than last season, when he threw 133 total innings, not including any potential playoff innings. That would put the Brewers in the position of violating their own general "30 inning increase" guideline, potentially by quite a bit if they make a run in the playoffs.

Now, these things should not be set in stone. It's not like Parra is guaranteed health at 163 innings and injury at 175 innings. But the team has guidelines for a reason and Parra has shown that he is a valuable asset worthy of protection with how he pitched in the first half. What I would like to see is the Brewers take some steps to protect Parra's workload in the second half so that he ends up with about 155 or so innings in the regular season. If they do that, then any extra risk wouldn't be intolerable because the extra innings would come in a potential League Championship or World Series, and the risk would then clearly be worth the reward.

The question is, will the Brewers be proactive enough to make these sorts of moves? This brings us back to the Red Sox handling of their young pitchers. They are in a high pressure pennant race again, as they are virtually every year. Yet, they are finding ways to limit their pitchers and keep them on track for inning goals despite what must be considerable fan pressure to ride their best pitchers. Of course, they've won 2 World Series in the last four years and have earned some credibility and leeway to make tough decisions. Selling the idea that Manny Parra needs to come out of the rotation in favor of some lesser loved starters like Seth McClung or Dave Bush to the fans at this point is going to be tough. Given the fact that the team went out and acquired CC Sabathia, it would seem to be unlikely that they would start making moves that run counter to "win now" in any major way.

The larger point here is that good franchises control their circumstances. They do not allow themselves to be pressured or pushed off their long term plans by the crisis of the moment. For the Brewers to truly take the next step in their evolution from cellar-dweller to powerhouse they are going to need to get out in front of some of these situations and control events instead of allowing themselves to be controlled by them. I'm not saying that if they allow Parra to go over X amount of innings that they have necessarily failed in some way, but it wouldn't be a positive sign.

The Manny Parra conundrum

Ryan Topp — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 20:40:32 GMT

Many real and digital trees have already died this spring trying to figure out and debating what should happen with the young southpaw who pitched his way back into the long term plans of the Brewers in 2007 after years lost to injury. With every successful outing (and so far, they've all been good) the crowd sharpening their rhetorical knives for Ned Yost should he dare send Parra down to AAA to open the year grows.

Anyone reading this is probably well aware of the fact that Parra has never pitched over 140 innings and that there is some evidence that suggests that young pitchers asked to vastly exceed their previous IP marks are at increased risk for injury or loss of effectiveness. It has been reported that the Brewers themselves use 30 innings as a general guideline for where to cut off young pitchers inning increases. A full years work is likely to exceed 200 innings, which would be a jump of over 60 innings.

The way I see it, this leaves two major options:

1) They can put him in the rotation from the beginning of the year and plan to leave him there as long as he is healthy and productive.
2) They can find some way to limit his innings.

I cannot see letting a pitcher of Parra's upside take the risks associated with number one. As much as I want the team to win this year, I also plan on being a fan of this team the next 5 years. If the team plans to contend in the coming years they should protect assets of Parra's value and not just cross their fingers and hope for the best while ignoring legitimate concerns.

Now, there are several ways to accomplish number two:

A) They can pitch him every 5th day from the start of the season, and then shut him down when he reaches whatever inning mark the team deems safe.
B) They can pitch him out of the bullpen (in the majors or minors) to limit his innings at some point.
C) They can hold him to strict pitch counts to limit his innings while starting him every 5th day in the majors.
D) They can send him down to the minor leagues and control his innings while starting him every 5th day for a month to six weeks and then bring him up and pitch him as normal
E) They can use the off days to skip starts early in the year to keep his innings in line.

To me, A isn't a legitimate option because a team in contention is vulnerable to being pressured to abandon the plan and because I think it would be good to have him available for a potential post-season run. C puts undue pressure on the bullpen, because for it to be effective you would have to limit him to many 4-5 inning starts. B is a legitimate option, though the team seems reluctant to exercise it.

The most likely options at this point appear to be D and E. Considering just how effective Parra has been this spring to this point, they probably need to seriously start looking at option E, even if they don't like the idea of him missing starts and working irregularly.

There doesn't seem to be a perfect answer here, but letting Parra pitch in the majors out of the 5th spot in the rotation and skipping starts does seem to be the lesser evil at this point.

Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Between the Green Pillars : Manny Parra

Ruling Circumstances

The Manny Parra conundrum