Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Between the Green Pillars : MarkAttanasio

Walking A Fine Line

Ryan Topp — Thu, 19 Feb 2009 05:23:57 GMT

The Dow Jones is down over 1200 points since the close of 2008. Unemployment is up almost three percent since the start of 2008. Every talking head on the TV machine tells us that it's only going to get worse before it gets better and that at best we can hope to avoid a "lost decade" like Japan suffered in the 1990's. So is it any surprise that Mark Attanasio, the principal owner the Milwaukee Brewers, is uneasy over spending big bucks to field a baseball team in the current economy?

"We feel a little more comfortable with [the pitching]. I think when we saw everybody at the fan event [in Milwaukee last month], we were still at a bit of a discomfort point.

"Now, I'm at a little bit of a discomfort point on the payroll."

That line drew a laugh, but at the same time it's serious business. If Gagne makes the team and he and other players reach what Attanasio called reachable incentives, Milwaukee's payroll would push past $90 million, a tough number to support in one of baseball's smallest markets.

If you believe the reports that came from Miller Park last year, the Brewers stood to lose money on the year if they failed to make the playoffs carrying a 90 million dollar payroll. Making the playoffs is a huge windfall for any franchise, and hosting two games put the team well into the black, but they had to get there to make that money. Early ticket sales for 2009 have been strong (over 1 million sold, according to the article), but if the team falls out of contention in the summer, it will be next to impossible to equal last year's three million fan mark as no-shows become a big issue with a disappointing team, especially in a bad economy.

Making matters worse....

He (Attanasio) expects the Brewers' share of Major League Baseball revenue sharing to be lower in 2009, and he's trying to preserve a manageable budget so the Brewers can afford the rising salaries of their young stars. Prince Fielder's pay, for example, jumped from $670,000 in 2008 to $6.5 million this season and will go to $11.5 million in 2010 as part of his two-year contract extension. Corey Hart just signed a $3.25 million, one-year contract on Tuesday after earning $444,000 last year.

The Brewers are in a very dangerous position here. If they don't make the playoffs this year, they're almost certainly going to lose money in 2009. In that event, it will be up to management if they want to risk another year where they lose money, and they very well might decide to start trimming payroll back to compensate for past losses. Should it come to that, the team will almost certainly have to decide if it's time to scrap the current core group of players and embark upon a rebuilding project a year or two early simply for fiscal reasons. Given the limited number of opportunities that any given team has in a success cycle, being forced to make a decision like that undercuts the whole mission of doing whatever it takes to win a World Series.

Beyond that, there are other potential hazards to running a big league payroll up close to your operating budget. Some of the best money that teams spend in any given year is the money they commit to signing bonuses of drafted and signed amateurs. If you are able to develop a star player, as the Brewers have recently done so often, you end up saving millions on payroll due to the cheap control years that those players are obligated to play out before cashing in. At times in the past, teams have cut back their budget for signing amateurs significantly to squeeze out a million or two for a mediocre veteran or two. It's key that the Brewers do not do this, as they'll have a few extra picks this year that they need to take advantage of. Furthermore, there is talk that the economy will likely cause a downturn on bonuses in general, leaving the door open for a big time opportunity for those with some money to spend.

Last year, the Milwaukee Brewers made a few bets at the all-star break to give the franchise a shot at making the postseason and they ended up paying off in the end. It would appear that they are doing the same thing this year, despite a rapidly deteriorating economy and without the benefit of having half the season under their belt while sitting right in contention. It's always hard to be able to separate fact from fiction when it comes to a sports teams finances, but it does seem safe to say that the Brewers are once again sticking their neck out for a shot at winning.

They just better hope that it doesn't get lopped off.

Now or Later?

Ryan Topp — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 02:49:11 GMT

Brewers Principal Owner Mark Attanasio and General Manager Doug Melvin chatted it up on MLB.com earlier tonight and a few little nuggets of info popped out, this being the most interesting to me....

jaybrew82: I've been somewhat keeping tab of the team's payroll and I see it currently at about $75M. Thank you Mark for raising the payroll! But, my question is... last year we were in the mid $80's. Couldn't we offer Sheets a 1-yr deal in the $8 mill range?

Mark: We are currently between $80 and $85 million. Doug is assessing our options and deciding between signing a starter now or preserving flexibility to pursue roster additions during the season. By the way, it is our understanding at this time, that Ben is pursuing a multiyear deal.

We already sort of knew most of that. The speculations on where the payroll stood have been out there on various interweb sites for a while, and most have conceded that after the Brewers signed Hoffman the team was close to where they opened the 2008 season. Considering the declining economy and the loss of big draw CC Sabathia, that seems like a reasonable place for 2009, at least to start. Which brings us to the issue raised in the rest of the response, which is should the team spend on a starter now or should they wait and see what becomes available in midseason?

On the side of spending on a starter now:

As it currently stands, the Brewers will be sending out two young pitchers who will likely be on at least somewhat limited pitch and inning counts (Yo Gallardo and Manny Parra), two pitchers who have recently topped out around 200 innings, but have slipped below that count often (Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan) and one guy who has no track record eating innings (Seth McClung). This is after losing two guys who routinely went into the late innings last summer (Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia), taking pressure off the bullpen. So what where are the innings going to come from if it's not from another starter? What about an injury that occurs early on, before (and if) Capuano is ready or teams start dealing?
The market for players is as good as it has been in years. Unless they were lucky enough to be coveted by the Evil Empire, pretty much no free agent who has signed has gotten close to their original asking price this offseason. That would lead one to believe that there are opportunities for bargains out there, if a team is willing to spend.
If the team does make a move for a starter (or any other player) during next season, they will have to give up talent to land them.

On the side of waiting:

The rotation, as it stands, might be able to get the job done. Gallardo could emerge as a legitmate ace, Parra and Bush might fall in place as solid complimentary peices while McClung and Suppan eat up innings at the back end effectively. Or, if one of them isn't able to get the job done, Chris Capuano could come back and be an effective starter at some point.
Piggy-backing off the above point, it may be that another need emerges mid-season, due to injury or ineffectiveness, and the money being spent on the starter prohibits the Brewers from addressing a more pressing need, even though there are solutions to be had on the market.
There is a good possibility that any mid year deal could take the form of a "salary dump" where the primary return for the team giving up the talent is taking money off the books, and very little is given up in the way of prospects. In the past, that sort of "dump" has been the province (mostly) of teams like the Yankees and Cubs who have giant budgets, but if the Brewers have space to spend and a team is desperate, it could happen here too.

It should be apparent at this point that this is a tough call for a GM trying to assemble a team on a budget. There is the chance that if the team waits and does nothing that disaster strikes and the team falls out of the race before anything can be done to fix the problem. There is also the chance that if they make a move now, they won't get what they need and instead leave themselves open to other problems they can't fix. This is why general managers get the big bucks, to make the tough decisions and take the heat from fans.

Personally, I would have rather spent the money that went to Trevor Hoffman on a starter in the Randy Wolf or Braden Looper vein and found another option at closer, but that ship has sailed. Whatever Melvin ends up deciding to do here, it's going to be rabbits foot time for Brewer fans heading to opening day 2009, hoping he guessed right.

Only two options for Mark Attanasio

badger80 — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 18:20:15 GMT

The honeymoon is over.

Mark Attanasio has had it pretty easy as the owner of the Milwaukee Brewers up to this point. He took over an organization with a competent front office in place, a budding farm system, and excitement from the local fan base hoping that the youth movement can produce a winner. Wisely, he added attractions in Miller Park and the number of give-away days to increase interest of the casual fan. The stadium has been packed all summer, and we're now at the point where fans expect a post season appearance.

But one September swoon really changed the outlook of this organization. Manager Ned Yost has been fired and now a decision needs to be made regarding Doug Melvin's future as General Manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. Melvin has one year left on his contract, which is a terrible situation for a GM who has pressure to win now.

It's taken 9 years and two GMs to bring some respectability back to baseball in Milwaukee. Dean Taylor got the ball rolling, hiring Jack Zduriencik and rebuilding the farm system. Doug Melvin and his staff took over and made some shrewd moves to replenish the talent on the major league roster. Now Mark Attanasio needs to decide if Melvin is the guy to lead the Milwaukee Brewers in the next phase.

The young talent is hitting arbitration and will command higher salaries. The club may not be able to afford the options of some of its veteran talent. The pitching staff and bullpen are again going to be an off season priority. Is it time for someone else to mold this roster?

Lame duck GMs can be prone to making poor long-term decisions as a last attempt to keep their jobs. Make a high priced off season signing, or ship off some cheap young talent for a cagey veteran to win this year. We'd all love to win this year, but at what cost? This is all assuming that an owner like Mark Attanasio would even give his General Manager free reign with one season left on his contract. Can Melvin effectively do his job if his hands are tied by an uncertain future?

Now is the time to make a move. Extend Doug Melvin, or thank him for his hard work and show him the door. With a roster that is just starting to mature and is now competitive, they can't afford to have indecision in the front office.

Congratulations Mark, you own a baseball team. You've given away bobbleheads, signed free agents and let your dad sing the national anthem on Opening Day. But now you get to make a real decision, one that you'll be held accountable for for years to come.