Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Between the Green Pillars : Pitching Rotation

Season Preview: Starting Rotation

Ryan Topp — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 00:24:09 GMT

When CC Sabathia raised his arms in the air after inducing the game winning double play on the last day of the season, it was the 12th complete game thrown by a Brewers hurler in 2008, good for second in all of baseball. Crew starters threw 983 1/3 innings (5th in MLB), posted a 3.86 ERA (3rd) and 1.31 WHIP (7th). Meanwhile, the hitters were busy scoring 750 runs, which put them pretty much right in the middle of baseball (17th) for team scoring. It's pretty safe to say that it was the rotation's ability to pitch a lot of good innings that landed Milwaukee in the playoffs for the first time since 1982.

The national baseball press has mostly focused on the loss of the twin-aces that fronted that effort in 2008 as means to write off the Brewers hopes for a repeat trip in 2009. Replacing Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia obviously isn't going to be easy. Together they threw 329 innings in only 48 starts with a 2.52 ERA, struck out 286 while only walking 72. They accounted for all 12 complete games and had 3 shutouts apiece. That is some serious run prevention and inning eating being done there and not the sort of gap that one can just easily fill.

If the 2009 rotation is going to pull its weight, Yovani Gallardo is going to be a big part of the effort. After getting off to a late start due to a knee injury, Gallardo was sidelined, presumably for the season, in a freak collision with Reed Johnson of the Chicago Cubs in only his 3rd start of the year. Yo rehabbed his heart out and was able to make a miraculous comeback to start on September 25th and once in the playoffs. Considering he was only able to give 24 innings last year, his return to health amounts to a pretty big addition to the 2009 staff. If he's able to live up to and build on his 134 1/3 innings of major league success thus far in his young career, he should be a solid frontman for the Brewers. His 3.35 ERA is more than a run below the park adjusted league average in that time and his 2.69 K:BB ratio shows a maturity well beyond his 23 years. Considering the non-pitching nature of the injury and his quick recovery from it, there doesn't seem to be any more risk of injury for Gallardo than any other young pitcher. There is some question as to how many innings the Brewers will allow him to throw in 2009, considering his lost 2008, but he was up to 188 innings in 2007 between AAA and MLB, so they shouldn't have to skip him very often if at all to keep the innings around a reasonable number.

In 2008 Manny Parra took another step on his long road back from an injury riddled minor league career and established himself as a credible major league pitcher. Overall, in 166 innings Parra posted a slightly below park adjusted league average 4.39 ERA. His 147:75 K:BB ratio is decent enough, though to take the next step he'll probably need to put some more distance between those numbers. Parra will also need to cut down the 1.54 WHIP, not only because so many of those runners will end up scoring but also because they increase the number of pitches he has to throw and prevent him from working deep into games. The big lefty was at times dominating and at times maddeningly erratic. He pitched his way out of the rotation by mid September, but considering the fact that he was already well over his 2007 inning total (133), we can probably attribute it to tiring. A step forward from Manny is another key to the 2009 rotation living up to it's potential.

Since being acquired in the Lyle Overbay trade before 2006, Dave Bush has been a solid, if somewhat unspectacular starter. He started poorly and eventually found himself in AAA, but starting on May 27th through the end of the year he posted a 3.38 ERA. After a down year in both departments in 2007, Bush reverted back closer to his 2006 levels with a 4.18 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The strikeouts aren't where they once were (109) but the walks are still solid (48). The main concern raised by his 2008 performance was his ridiculously low .238 BABIP, which tends to indicate that he was somewhat unnaturally lucky. More balls are almost certainly going to fall for hits in 2009, and the best way to combat that would be a spike back up in his K rate to something more in line with his 2006 numbers.

It is easy to overlook what Jeff Suppan is, and will likely be, and focus on what he is not because of the large contract he signed after the 2006 season. Given the the decline in his peripheral stats in the years leading up to signing the contract, the bottom-falls-out season that he suffered through in 2008 was something bound to happen eventually. His ERA+ (ERA compared to park adjusted league average on a scale where 100 is average) has been on a steady decline since 2005. If all of that wasn't enough to put a fan in a bad mood, Suppan is now entering the expensive part of his contract, where he will be paid 12.5 million per year the next two seasons. Still, all is not lost. Suppan did suffer from a highish .306 BABIP and he was struggling with some injuries last season. If he can stem the deterioration in ERA+ and hold steady around 5.00 while pitching close to 200 innings, he should be good enough to keep the team in many games and give the offense a chance to win. No one in their right mind would give him a 2 year, 25 million dollar contract now, but it doesn't have to be a total disaster.

The Brewers may have decided to go after another Cardinals inning eater when they signed Braden Looper, but this time the price (4.75 million for one year) was right. Looper began his professional life as a starter, but had been converted to relief work by the time he reached the majors with the Cards in 1998. In 2007, the Cardinals made the odd-at-the-time decision to covert Looper for work as a starter. After a decent season in 2007, he was able to turn in a slightly better than league average ERA of 4.16 in 2008 while pitching 199 innings. He's not a big strikeout guy (108), but neither does he walk many batters (45) and his WHIP (1.31) is solid back of the rotation stuff. He's not going to make anyone forget about Ben Sheets or CC Sabathia, but if he can keep the ball down and get his groundouts, he'll be able to fill the gap reasonably well.

Teams rarely make it though a season using only 5 starters. One can pretty much count on a 6th starter getting a good number of starts and more often than not a 7th or even 8th starter will also be needed at some point. Unless he is otherwise occupied closing games (and perhaps even then), the man that the Crew will turn to first in the case of a need for another starter is Seth McClung. McClung made 12 starts in 2008, averaging just over 5 IP per start and posting a 4.24 ERA in those games. He managed this by taking a bit off the top end of his fastball and focusing on pitching to contact. If he can harness his sometimes erratic command, he should at least be able to be a credible stop gap performer at the back of the rotation and possibly even a bit better than that. After undergoing Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career last season, Chris Capuano is back and throwing with the Brewers this spring. Not much information about his performance thus far has been leaked to the press, but if he can regain some of the velocity he lost in 2007, Capuano could be a pleasant surprise and needed reinforcement sometime around the middle of the year. Cutter artist Mark DiFelice will almost certainly see some time in the big leagues in 2009, and though he is probably best suited to mop-up relief and ROOGY duty, he could be a stop gap starter in a pinch at some point. Though it is an extreme long-shot, if top pitching prospect Jeremy Jeffress were to take a major leap forward in his command and consistency, he could find his way to the big leagues at some point late in 2009, though it would probably be in a relief role.

Barring an everything-goes-right miracle from the starters on hand or a major aquisition before the trade deadline, the 2009 rotation is not going to carry the Brewers into the playoffs as it did in 2008. That being said, unless the group on hand suffers from signifigant bad luck on the injury front and/or regression, they probably will be good enough to hold serve and allow the team to compete for a playoff spot if the offense and bullpen can step up a bit from their 2008 efforts. Such is the life of a mid market team, where nothing good lasts long and the formula for winning has to be constantly reevaluated and adjusted according to resources and talent on hand. It's never good news to lose pitchers like Sabathia and Sheets, but it doesn't have to be a death sentence.

Offering Sheets Arby the Correct Call

Ryan Topp — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 00:04:03 GMT

The Brewers have offered Ben Sheets arbitration, ensuring either two top 60 or so picks or another year of Sheets at a somewhat discounted rate. It's really a win-win situation for the Brewers:

If Sheets elects to turn down the offer, the Brewers will get the signing teams first round pick, unless they finished in the bottom half of the league or sign a better free agent (according to Elias), in which case the Brewers would get the next unprotected pick. They would then also get a pick in between the first and second rounds (commonly referred to as the "sandwich round") based on the Elias rankings.

If he elects to stay with the team and play on a "prove your worth" one-year deal, then the Brewers will get him for a decent sum, but only for a one year commitment. This is ideal, because it would help bridge the gap between the current rotation and some of the impact arms who are at least a year or two away while not tying the team down to a long term commitment. If the past is any indicator, Ben Sheets isn't likely to give you a CY young caliber season or pitch 200 innings, but he is a solid bet to give you 120+, well above league average innings.

It's somewhat unlikely that Sheets will accept the offer and if he does he's probably going to get a raise from his current annual salary, which is sure to ruffle the feathers of a few detractors. There is also a good possibility that he could end up signing with a team whose first round pick is protected, which would mean the Brewers end up with picks comparable to those they received for Scott Linebrink or Fransisco Cordero last year. Still, this is move that represents little risk and offers several possible likely rewards.

The outlook is similarly rosy on both sides for their offer of arbirtation to lefty specialist Brain Shouse. Sure, they're only in line for a pick between the second and third rounds should he decline, but that's still not bad. Should he accept, the Brewers are probably on the hook for a couple million dollars for one year, which isn't bad for a guy who does still totally shut down left handed batters. Still, if I'm kinda rooting for Sheets to accept the offer, I'm also somewhat rooting for Shouse to turn it down. His inablity to be anything better than awful against right handed batters puts the manager in tough spot on a regular basis when navigating the late innings.

Oh, and CC Sabathia was also offered arby too. Surprised?

Playoff Rotation Triage

Ryan Topp — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 05:43:00 GMT

The Brewers are not heading into the playoffs with a well rested and perfectly set up rotation. That ship sailed a while ago. What interim manager Dale Sveum is going to have to determine in the coming hours is exactly what he has left and what is the best way to deploy it for the series that starts in Philly on Wednesday.

So what's left?

CC Sabathia has been a beast. An absolute stud. He's also pitched on short rest his last three starts, going over 100 pitches each time and over 120 on Sunday. I'm starting to think he's actually Superman, but even he had his Kryptonite. The temptation is going to be to try to make him available to pitch twice in the NLDS, but that would mean he would either have to pitch on 3 days rest before game #2 on Thursday or 2 days rest between game #3 and game #5 on Tuesday. There might not be any way to avoid that, however.

Dave Bush has been the second most dependable starter since the CC acquisition, but has a 4.50 ERA in September. He's also had trouble on the road (5.14 ERA) and with the longball (29) and those things do not bode well for a start in Philadelphia.

Jeff Suppan was aquired largely because he has a good track record in "big games" specifically in the postseason. But if Bush has struggled in September, Suppan has been downright awful with an 8.44 ERA and a HR just about every three innings pitched. They'll probably have to give him a shot at some point, but with a short leash.

Yovani Gallardo being on the mound at all at this point is a miracle and it's generally not wise to push your luck too much with miracles. He's almost certainly a short start at this point, but the Brewers have some options to fill out the rest of a game he starts. He could be a powerful weapon for the Brewers for 3 to 5 innings to keep the Phillies at bay if they're willing to assume the risk.

Manny Parra was struggling mightily in September and looked to be out of gas after back to back short outings against the Phillies and Reds. After a nice rest of seven days, he was able to pitch very effectively (4/0 K/BB and 1 hit) in 2 innings on Saturday versus the Cubs. He probably isn't going to start a game, but he certainly could be used after a short outing from someone else.

Seth McClung has only 2 starts since the allstar break, but he is currently one of the few Brewer pitchers overpowering opponents on a regular basis. He could be used for a short start, to piggy back with Gallardo or Parra or even be used as a late inning reliever. At this point his ability to be flexible probably dictates that he be on call in the pen and not tied down to a set starting schedule.

Ben Sheets is apparently done for the year.

There are a lot of possible ways to deploy these guys and none is a surefire path to success. Were Ned Yost still the manager, the veteran Jeff Suppan would probably be a solid bet to get the call in game #1.

Here is one man's humble opinion of what the rotation should be:

Wednesday: Yovani Gallardo (with Parra ready to pitch the middle innings)

Thursday: Jeff Suppan

Saturday: CC Sabathia

Sunday: Dave Bush

Tuesday: Yovani Gallardo (with everyone else ready to go if needed)

Yes, this only gives CC one start, but the way he's been used I think it's best to give him the extra time to be fresh and be ready to go. If they rush him back on Thursday, there is a decent chance that his performance would suffer. I can't imagine a worse scenerio than CC not being effective and the team being down in a 0-2 hole heading back to Milwaukee without CC there to help in game #3 or #4. Yes, there is big risk in running out Yo and Soup in Philly, but if they can scrape out a split the team is in prime position to take a big advantage after a CC start in game #3. Of course then anyone and everyone would be on deck for game #5 should they get there, and as the Cubs showed on Sunday you can keep a team off balance by switching pitchers often in a game.

A Rotation Platoon?

Ryan Topp — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 07:00:00 GMT

Apparently, Ned Yost is thinking outside the box again. Not that it's a bad thing. I was in favor of batting Jason Kendall 9th, after all. I'm still not quite sure why that was abandoned, exactly.

The basic idea to this latest brain storm is this: Dave Bush has been so good at home and lousy on the road and Seth McClung has been better on the road than at home, so the team is considering platooning them so that Bush would start at home and McClung on the road.

On the very surface, that sounds somewhat logical and appealing. The acquisition of CC Sabathia means that when Jeff Suppan returns from the disabled list someone will have to be moved out of the rotation. Ben Sheets, Manny Parra and Sabathia all have earned spots in the rotation. Jeff Suppan has a large contract and his track record of summer slumps suggests that if the Brewers stick with him, they will be rewarded later in the year. That leaves Bush and McClung, and both have largely pitched well of late, especially Bush. Still, someone has to go and it's going to be one of them.

Of course, once you go beyond the surface notion of creating this "super starter" out of two different guys, it gets a bit trickier:

Is it really reasonable to expect that in both cases that there are real reasons that McClung pitches better on the road and Bush is better at home? Because if it's not, then there is little reason to think that these trends can be counted on to continue. Bush has a long track record of being better at home than on the road, but not nearly at this large a differential. McClung has an ERA almost two full points higher on the road versus at home in his career. So isn't it likely he would revert back on the road anyway?
These are real human beings and they have routines they are used to. Teams do have starters make appearances out of the pen or have relievers make spot starts from time to time, of course. What they do not do all that often anymore is ask players to consistently shuffle between the two roles. It is an open question how a player being asked to shuffle between these roles would do.
It takes up two roster spots and leaves the manager short a reliever out of necessity for long stretches when you figure that a player who is being asked to potentially make a "full start" is going to need at least three days rest before and after each start if you want them to be effective and not worry about over use. That 4th day they are only going to be available for limited duty if they are coming off of a full start or are being expected to make one in 4 days. Lets take a look at how this might work over a period where they alternate starts:

Day 1: Bush starts at home / McClung fully available
Day 2: Bush unavailable / McClung marginally available
Day 3: Bush unavailable / McClung unavailable
Day 4: Bush unavailable / McClung unavailable
Day 5: Bush marginally available / McClung unavailable
Day 6: Bush fully available / McClung starts on the road
Day 7: Bush marginally available / McClung unavailable
Day 8: Bush unavailable / McClung unavailable
Day 9: Bush unavailable / McClung unavailable
Day 10: Bush unavailable / McClung marginally available
Day 11: Bush starts at home / McClung fully available

So, the only day that the one not starting would be fully available would be the day that the other is starting. Other than that, they wouldn't be available for more than some limited duty. You also end up with 4 days in 11 where neither one would be available at all, meaning any short start on one of those days would have to be covered by the other relievers on the staff.

All in all, I just don't see there being a likely enough upside to justify the definite cost.

Brewer Starters Eating Innings

BrewerTron — Fri, 30 May 2008 00:03:00 GMT

Like other Brewer fans, I have been nervous about the Brewers starting rotation since Gallardo went down against the Cubs, likely for the season. At that point, Sheets and Gallardo were really the only two consistent bets to give a solid start and eat innings. Especially troubling was the inability of the back of the rotation to get through the middle innings without getting torched. Since the Boston series, however, the starters are going deeper into games. Here is a breakdown of the last 9 games since Boston:

-May 20: Manny Parra 5 2/3 IP

-May 21: Ben Sheets 9 IP

-May 22: Dave Bush 5 IP

-May 23: Jeff Suppan 5 2/3 IP

-May 24: Seth McClung 5 IP (First start and working on a limited pitch count)

-May 25: Manny Parra 4 1/3

-May 26 Ben Sheets 6 IP

-May 27 Dave Bush 7 IP

-May 28 Jeff Suppan 8 IP

The average IP per start for these 9 games comes to about 6 1/3 Innings. That number isn't going to set the roof on fire, but it is a 1 inning improvement compared to the the 5 1/3 IP before May 20. That extra inning is critical for keeping the bullpen fresh, and the team will need to rely on those relievers the rest of the year, especially until the club can do something to upgrade its staring pitching. The Crew's bullpen struggled last season during July and August, after it had been overworked in the early months by having a starting staff that couldn't go deep enough into games. There will be times when Yost will have to decide between getting innings out a faltering starter and giving the team the best chance to win a given game by going to the pen early. Correctly balancing those things is what he gets paid for, and he'll have to do his best. Hopefully Brewer starters can continue to hold down the fort until help can arrive around the trade deadline.

Editors note: This was written before McClung's short start on Thursday against the Braves