Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Between the Green Pillars : Ryan Braun

Contemplating Life Without Braun

Ryan Topp — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 06:31:00 GMT

If you're a die-hard Brewer fan who uses the inter-tubes to collect information about your favorite team (and if you're reading this, you are) you've been following the ongoing drama of the Ryan Braun injury. I'm not going to rehash it here for you, but if you for some reason do need a primer just scroll through the JS Brewer Blog and eat your heart out. By the time you're reading this, there surely will be at least marginally better information available on the status of Braun. He'll probably (hopefully) have an MRI and see some sort of doctor sometime Thursday. We've all got our fingers crossed, but I think a few things are fairly likely: Braun is probably going to miss some time at some point due to this injury and even when playing he will not always be at full health.

Braun is obviously extremely important to the fortunes of the CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets-less 2009 Milwaukee Brewers. The rotation just isn't going to be as good, so the offense is going to have to pick up some of the slack. Ironically, in an Alanis Morissette sense, as I was pondering this question I came upon this Baseball Prospectus/ESPN.com joint article (sorry, it's insider) listing the top 10 "irreplaceable stars" in the game today. Braun made the cut:

Ryan Braun, Brewers LF (0.231 MLVr, 0.434 above backup): While Braun's overall 2008 line couldn't quite equal his 2007 numbers, the move from third base to left field saved 30 runs, according to our defensive numbers. His MLVr ranks ninth among our PECOTA projections and is exacerbated by the Brewers' lack of a suitable backup. Tony Gwynn Jr. (-0.203) and Chris Duffy (-0.239) carry weak sticks even for center fielders, and it's a stretch to assume that Trot Nixon (0.010) will suffice, given that he played in just 11 major league games last year. Former top prospect Brad Nelson (-0.083), a first baseman who's taken up the outfield corners in an attempt to win a reserve job, would bump Braun out of the top 10 if he can handle the move to the pasture.

Is anyone excited by the possibility of seeing if Brad Nelson can bump Braun out of the top 10 of this list?

I didn't think so.

In conversation earlier with someone, we were trying to come up with some sort of over-under for the number of games Braun is likely to play this year. We ended up somewhere in the 130 to 140 range as a reasonable place to set the number, which upon further reflection still seems about right. He's obviously a guy who wants to be in the lineup and one who will fight being out for extended time, so he'll push to get back ASAP regardless of the wisdom of such a decision.

It's impossible to know just how good or bad Braun will be playing whatever degree of hurt he is. We can go back and look at his splits last year pre (.300/.339/.586) and post (.238/.321/.449) strain and surmise the obvious: Ryan Braun is a lot better healthy than he is hurt. If you believe Braun, something that is becoming increasingly difficult in this whole saga, he's not in as much pain as last season right now. Even if it's true, it's hard to know if and how long that can last playing with a re-aggravated old injury.

The Brewers are in a tough position here. One of the most valuable players on the team and the "face of the franchise" has a recurring injury that doesn't necessarily have to keep him off the field but will likely hurt his play and they do not have an easy replacement for him. For the next few weeks, the best course is almost certainly caution but once the season starts if Braun feels well enough to try and play it's going to be hard to keep him out of the lineup. Even if he can play well enough that he's not hurting the team, he's risking making the injury more severe and long term with every wild hack he takes.

To make it through this season in one piece, three things are going to need to happen:

Braun is going to need to be as open and forthright as possible with the training staff about his injury.
The Brewers are going to need to be careful and judicious in when they decide to play him.
Everyone involved is going to need some good luck.

(H/T to Badger80 for "inter-tubes")

Four Things To Watch

Ryan Topp — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 08:50:02 GMT

As of the close of business on August 19th, the Brewers record stands at 72 wins and 55 losses. That puts them 6 games behind the first place Chicago Cubs in the central division and 2.5 games ahead of the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League wild card race. There are 35 games remaining in the season, 20 at Miller Park and 15 on the road. Whether the Brewers will be playing in October will depend on what happens in that time, and I think that what happens in that time will be defined by the following .

The health and productivity of the Brewers twin aces. I posted last week on Yost's overuse of Sabathia and Sheets and since then we've seen CC throw 130 pitches in what became a 9-3 win, obviously not a good sign from a useage standpoint. A lot has also been made of Ben Sheets fall from grace of late. While it is true that Sheets has not pitched as well as he did in the beginning of the season, his struggles are vastly overrated by virtue of the fact that he's having trouble getting the all important "W". In reality, he's mostly been just bad enough not to win, with a couple of exceptions. If the Brewers are going to the playoffs, these two will have to be a big part of it. I'm honestly more concerned about health than production, but both will be necessary.
The health and productivity of Ryan Bran and Rickie Weeks. Obviously, people look at Braun as more critical to the teams success, and that is correct. This rib cage thing needs to be taken care of because the offense needs his power in the middle of the lineup. Weeks has taken a lot of heat for everything from his batting average (too low) to his strikeouts (too frequent) and his ability to turn double plays (shaky, at best). Still, the fact remains that when he was hurt, Weeks was performing well with the stick and that his loss moving Ray Durham to the lineup everyday hurts the depth of the bench quite a bit. This team's best chance to win lies in both Durham and Weeks being available.
The bullpen's ability to get outs in close games. The pen has had a lot of time off from pitching in close games of late, because the starters are going deep into games often and the offense has been providing breathing room in a good number of wins. There is going to come a time in this last 35 games where the bullpen is relied on to extend a winning streak or to stop a losing trend. Davis Riske, Carlos Villanueva and Eric Gagne will need to hand over some slim leads and Salomon Torres will need to convert them into wins. How reliable these guys are down the stretch will go a long way towards determining this teams path.
It would really help if another player of great ability got really hot. Right now, Sabathia is carrying the team in a lot of ways. Chances are good that his current level of performance will not hold for the rest of the year, just because it is so exceptional and few have ever been able to be that good for long stretches. Someone else stepping up with a run would go a long way towards locking up a playoff spot.

Ryan Braun Speaks Out

Ryan Topp — Mon, 19 May 2008 05:20:21 GMT

Ryan Braun spoke his mind about the mindsets of his teammates after the Brewers were swept by the Boston Red Sox on Sunday:

"I almost felt like this series, we didn't expect to win," Braun said after the Brewers dropped their fifth consecutive game and ninth in a row on the road.

"We were competing; I know everybody tried hard. But it's not about trying hard. You've got to expect to win. I almost feel like we never really expected to win any of these games. I just kind of had that feeling.

"It's just a feeling. Every time we were winning, I just didn't feel we expected to win. It was like we were just content to be there and compete. I don't think we necessarily expected to win."

The implication here of course is that he does expect to win and that his teammates are not all on the same page. If that is the case, it is obviously a problem. He does say that he thinks guys are working hard and "competing" and that should help soften the blow a little bit.

Braun seems to be trying to assume a mantle of leadership and that isn't a bad thing in and of itself. The problem is how he's chosen to go about it. He did not call a private team meeting and directly address those he is speaking about face to face. Instead, he went to the media and called his teammates out that way.

What Braun said can easily be interpreted (or misinterpreted, if you're so inclined) as grandstanding and putting himself above the rest of the team as opposed to a part of them. Even if that isn't what he intended, it would be understandable if the other players felt that is what he was doing. Braun is hitting the ball exceptionally well at the moment, which means he has cover for his performance and thus his comments seem to be directed at others, and not really including himself. Don't forget that Braun just got a huge payday and that can also create some resentment from players who have been around longer.

There is a reason that players usually don't say this type of thing in the media and when it happens it is news; it isn't really a good thing to call out your teammates to a reporter instead of to their faces. If Braun really wants to be a team leader, he is going to have to start doing this sort of thing with his teammates personally and not to the media. Of course that wouldn't provide the fans with the satisfaction of having a player express their frustration with the team. But being a leader isn't about pleasing those on the outside of a situation. It is about leading others towards a common goal.

What Braun said may have needed saying, but he almost certainly chose the wrong place to express his thoughts.