Milwaukee Brewers Blog - Between the Green Pillars : prospects

How to Improve Player Development

Ryan Topp — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 20:35:00 GMT

With the spring training games in full swing, it's time to wrap up the off-season prospect talk with a look at a few things the Brewers can do to improve the vital player development department. Overall, the team of Jack Zduriencik and Reid Nichols did a solidly above-average job procuring and developing a good number of impact major league players over the past decade or so. There were, of course, areas where they struggled. That tandem has produced far more hitting talent than pitching talent to date and though there is some reason to hope pitching-wise in the lower minors, it's a long ways off. Furthermore, most of the offensive players that have been produced are not well-rounded players and instead rely on their bat, specifically power, to give them value. This is not to say that they are not useful to the team, or that they don't help them win, just that they tend to have limited skill sets.

The hallmark of Jack Zduriencik's tenure was the ability to produce position players who could hit the ball hard, but had trouble picking in the field. The Brewers spent their top 5 picks on Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun, knowing full well that they would have a lot of work to do to stay at the position where they were drafted and that they might not make it. Current top prospects in the system Mat Gamel, Angel Salome and Brett Lawrie would all fit the bill of bat-first types. Of course, the ability to hit is key in a position player prospect and a team needs to draft guys that can hit. Ultimately, though, preventing runs is also important and finding guys who are more well-rounded is the difference between a good and a great team. What can new Scouting Director Bruce Seid do to improve the quality of position players being developed by the team?

Draft and sign players who are more polished defensively early in the draft. Of course, there is nothing wrong with taking a Mat Gamel or an Angel Salome in the 4th or 5th round, despite obvious defensive shortcomings, when their bats are good enough to make them big league prospects. After the first few rounds, you take whatever pluses you can get and live with the shortcomings. Early on, though, it would be nice to find the occasional advanced defender.

Put a premium on defensive development. It isn't really fair to knock the team for bringing up Weeks and Braun before they were ready to play big league D at their assigned position because the team had a 20+ year monkey on it's back and they needed to get it off before they could start delaying the big league development of key prospects. Now, though, the team can and should (at least sometimes) delay promoting a guy who is raking to get them time to develop defensively.

Improve the quantity and quality of defensive coaching in the minors. It's a relatively inexpensive way to improve the value of your top assets. Spending an extra $50,000 to hire a coach to work extensively with a guy to whom you gave a 2 million dollar bonus and who can be leveraged into years of well below market value productivity seems like a wise investment to make, if that is what it will take to develop the player.

Defense isn't the only issue in the system over the past half dozen or so years. The Brewers have had a difficult time drafting and developing healthy pitchers. First round picks Mike Jones and Mark Rogers had their careers sidetracked by injury. 2006 first round pick Jeremy Jeffress has had personal and developmental issues and is far from a sure thing. With the exception of Yovanni Gallardo and Manny Parra, they haven't had any luck outside of the first round either. So what can be done?

Zduriencik showed a definite preference for high-ceiling, high school flame throwers in the first round when drafting a pitcher. The injury rate for those types is very high, as is evidenced by the repeated surgeries that Rogers and Jones have gone through. Of course, Gallardo was a high school draftee and he made it to the majors just fine, but he is the decided exception right now. Seid would be well advised to mix in more appreciation for solid mechanics and post high school pitching when evaluating pitchers to take early, though he should by no means disqualify guys because they are high schoolers or have some mechanical flaws.

Producing pitching for the major league level is largely a volume business. Young pitchers get hurt; it's just what they do. So if a team wants to produce pitchers, they need to put a high priority on drafting them. From 2000 to 2007, the Brewers had 8 first and 5 second round picks. They only used 3 of the first rounders and 1 of the second rounders on pitchers. That's 4 of 13 top picks on pitchers, and if Jeffress and Gallardo both turn into quality major leaguers, that isn't bad odds, though clearly there wasn't enough of an investment made in the first place. Considering just how good the Brewers' scouts have been at finding hitters in the later rounds, choosing more pitchers early seems to be a no-brainer. They took a good step in that direction in 2008, using 4 of their 6 picks in the first two rounds on pitchers and would be well advised to use some of the extra picks they'll have in 2009 (5 total picks in the first two rounds) on pitchers.

The Brewers built much of their current group of homegrown players on top 10 picks in the amateur draft. Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks were all taken with top 7 selections, as was Matt LaPorta who was flipped for CC Sabathia. Barring a bizarre run of bad luck, the Brewers will not be routinely drafting in the top 10 any time soon, so they are going to need another way to acquire elite talents if they want to become a perennial contender. The key to doing so is improving Latin American player development, and there are a couple of ways to do this.

The Brewers are not often players for top flight Latin American talent. They do not step up with big bonus offers for top end guys, instead they rely on their scouts to find players others have overlooked, somewhat. To date, the only Latin American "impact" player of note produced in the Zduriencik tenure is Alcides Escobar, and he has yet to prove that he can play everyday in the big leagues. An increased effort in this area is probably the best way to acquire potential star talent.

Just bringing those guys in is not enough, however. The Brewers have had trouble developing some of the players they have acquired in Latin America over the past few years. Jim Breen of Bernie's Crew had a theory on why in the Prospect Chat Part I that ran a few weeks ago:

The big problem I see with the international operations is a lack of a facility in the Dominican Republic, as their current philosophy is simply not working. Shawn Zarraga, Hitaniel Arias, and Carlos George all have potential, but the team as a whole was terrible. Something has to be remedied, and it appears Milwaukee is sincerely looking to reopen a facility in the DR. Perhaps that will help.

Most teams have just such a facility someplace in Latin America, which allows time for a team to prepare a prospect in more familiar environment before exposing them to pro ball in the US. The original strategy behind closing the facility they did have was that it wasn't cost effective and that the team would be better off simply bringing guys directly to the states. The low productivity rate of the Brewers international operations suggests they should, at the very least, reevaluate.

Ultimately, these are small things compared to the good things that have been done in the last few years in player development. Many franchises would love to have had the Brewers' "problems" developing players if it meant they could also have the successes. There is always room for improvement, however, and that is the spirit in which this was offered. Starting in April, Jay and I will be back with our Prospect of the Week feature, which will run directly on the blog this season. Make sure to check in on a weekly basis for that.

Prospect Tidbits

Ryan Topp — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 13:56:02 GMT

As you get set for the first spring training game, I thought you might like a quick rundown of what prospect analyst John Sickels, who writes at minorleagueball.com thinks about some of the Brewer prospects. His annual book is a must read for me, and something that I would highly recommend to anyone who wants another perspective on prospects. Here are some highlights....

In his top 50 hitters, he ranks Mat Gamel 16th and former Brewer Prospect Matt LaPorta 29th. No one else is ranked, which is notable considering just about every other outlet has shortstop Alcides Escobar in their top 50 overall prospects. Jeremy Jeffress checked in 27th on the top 50 pitchers list.
Sickels was one of the few outlets out there to note RHP Blakeney Billings, the Brewers 19th round pick in the 2008 draft as a guy to keep an eye on. Baseball America didn't even mention him anywhere in their depth chart at all, even beyond the top 30. Sickels gave him a "C" grade and talked about him as being a good projection pick.
He's backed off of his praise for Michael Brantley, who was the final piece sent to Cleveland in the CC Sabathia trade, just a bit. Last year, he was talking him up as a big breakout cannidate, and he really did have a fantasitc year with the bat. At the very end of his writeup this year, though, he's talking about him as a potential 4th outfielder. That makes a lot of sense considering his inability to start at a defensive position where his lack of power wouldn't be a problem.
Sickels is more positive than most on Lorenzo Cain's ability in the field, calling him a "fine defensive outfielder" and saying that he can play center until he starts to slow down. If that is the case, and he continues to improve at the plate, he believes Cain is on track to start in center for the Brewers next year.
He's not as bullish as some on Cutter Dykstra, using the same sort of line that was often used about Tony Gwynn Jr. when he was drafted that if it weren't for the last name, he probably would have gone later.
As for Escobar, Sickels is still questioning whether or not he'll hit enough to be an everyday starter at the big league level. After last year, his (and my) opinion on his ability to do so has improved a lot, and he cites his youth, but the "B" grade is on the low end of what others who rate prospects would give him if they used the system.
Cole Gillespie gets a Jason Bay comp, which doesn't jive all that well with the "C+" grade, though it appears the point was more that he gets the most out of the tools he has than an actual ceiling projection.
Sickels believes that newly aquired RHP Nick Green would be better off in relief, says that his changeup is one of the best he's seen in the minors "in the last 5 years" and his writeup generally suggests to me a Carlos Villanueva type, which would be outstanding.
Jeremy Jeffress gets a "B" this year, though he is open to moving that grade up as high as an A- if he can improve his control and changeup. He's also pretty conservative with the timetable, projecting 2010 or 2011 barring a "sudden leap forward"
Jon LuCroy gets a solid "B" grade and Sickels believes that "his remaining defensive flaws can be fixed with experience" which is good news for those worried about how his arm will play at the major league level.
Though Eduardo Morlan's health is a concern, he gets a C+ "with higher potential if healthy"
Sickels really likes Jake Odorizzi, calling him "one of my favorite prep prospects." He makes a body comparison to Zach Greinke at the same age, but does hedge a bit when talking about the secondary offerings.
Judging by the comments about Wily Peralta, Sickels seems to think that he's more likely to end up a reliever in the long run than in the rotation, though he says "his ceiling is intriguing either way.
LHP Josh Romanski gets a somewhat surprising "C+" grade, considering that guys like Efrain Nieves, Seth Linz and Zach Braddock all graded out as "C" type guys, so it would be a good idea to pay close attention to him this season.
RHP Cody Scarpetta gets an official "Sleeper Alert!!" marking this year, along with a "C+" grade, so you can add another to the long list of people who think that Scarpetta has a chance to be special.
Baseball America doesn't even list Catcher Shawn Zarraga as being among the Brewers top 7 prospects behind the dish, but that doesn't stop Sickels from giving him a "C" grade and rating him as "worth watching"

Enjoy the game today!

Prospect Chat: Part I

Ryan Topp — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 17:35:30 GMT

Now that the top 25 lists are done, it's time to talk about the state of the system with a few of the people who put in work on those lists. Jim Breen, the author of the list over at Bernie's Crew and BC contributor Aaron Kittell will join Pillars’ regulars Ryan Topp and Jay Montague in discussing who ended up where and why, general trends within the system and taking a look forward at where the system is headed.

Ryan: The Milwaukee Brewers franchise has to build from the ground up to be successful in the current big league economic system. Last season didn't see any big time rookies break into the bigs, but things were still going on beneath the surface. If you had to give the system an overall grade, what would it be and what little comments would go on the report card with it?

Jim: I would have to give the system a B- for the season.

The Nashville Sounds were absolutely horrendous last season, and only Brad Nelson did anything to help his big league stock rise by hitting .286/.380/.480 with 18 home runs. Besides the issue in Nashville, the Brewers were quite successful on the season. They lost top-tier prospects in Matt LaPorta and Michael Brantley, along with lesser prospects such as Steve Hammond and Darren Ford, but those losses were glossed over by the first playoff appearance in 26 seasons.

Ryan: I would agree that Nashville was a big disappointment in 2008, but I'm not too worried about that. I think that oftentimes people spend too much time worrying about what is going on at AAA, because that is where the "best players" are supposed to be. In fact, farm systems go through cycles all the time, and there was so much potential major league talent at AA and below that what happened at AAA just wasn't that big a deal.

Jay: Brewer System Grade: B

I like the depth the Brewers’ system offers but many minor league experts have stated the organization lacks high ceiling players. Brett Lawrie and Jeremy Jeffress are the only 2 players in the high ceiling class currently. I think the excellent draft of last June could bring the Brewers back into the top 10 of farm systems. In the near future the team should have lots of options with position players graduating to the majors. Hopefully the young pitching in the system will pay dividends a couple years down the line.

Jim: Yeah, the biggest positive that I saw in the 2008 Minor League season was the infusion of young talent in the lower levels of the organization. Pitchers like Jake Odorizzi, Cody Scarpetta, Wily Peralta, Rob Wooten, Efrain Nieves, Seth Lintz, and Amaury Rivas provide a bright outlook for the future in Milwaukee. Young hitters like Erik Komatsu, Brett Lawrie, and Cutter Dykstra also give hope for hitting in the future.

Ryan: This is huge. We'll talk about the young pitching a little later on, but it wasn't just pitching they added. This young talent, combined with the extra early picks they'll have in the 2009 draft, figures to give them a deep talent pool to draw from as they head forward.

Overall, I think a B for the system in 2008 is pretty appropriate. They had quite a few players break out at AA and had a solid draft that produced some immediate results. They were able to use the depth of the system to acquire important players for a successful playoff drive. On the negative side, they're still waiting for a pitcher other than Jeffress to assert himself as a top-notch pitching prospect, and the defensive progress of some of the top bats wasn't quite what people had hoped. All in all, the farm system is producing enough talent to sustain a competitive team at the major league level, which is ultimately what their job is.

Jim: Milwaukee's minor league system has been solid for many years now, churning out prospects like Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Ben Sheets, and J.J. Hardy. Despite this, many analysts believe that the Brewers' system is a middle-of-the-pack organization this season. Why? What are the weaknesses of Milwaukee's system as it now stands?

Ryan: I think the most glaring weakness is the lack of top flight pitching at the upper levels, with the exception of Jeffress. There is potential lower down, but who knows what will come of that? The other big issue is that the position players, by and large, have defensive and/or positional questions. The organization has been great at producing big league bats, but I'm hoping that new SD Bruce Seid will tweak the approach towards drafting to address the weak spots.

Aaron: It's pretty clear the Brewers have done an exceptional job improving their minor league system over the last seven years, but they deserve their ranking at the middle of the pack. The problem isn't that they don't have promising prospects , as they are stacked with those. For me, it's that all of those prospects tend to have gaping holes in their game. With Mat Gamel, it's his defense. With Jeffress, it's his juvenile behavior. With Escobar, it’s personal issues and almost no slugging. Even with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, it was defense. They just don't have a guy like David Price, Matt Wieters or Evan Longoria anywhere in their system. I know these are extreme examples, but the point is that the Crew just doesn't have well-rounded prospects in the system.

Jay: I agree, Aaron. I think the previous scouting staff drafted the best offensive player available regardless of where they thought they could play on the diamond. The problem with that is there is no place to hide sub par defense in the National League besides left field and first base. I hope the new scouting staff puts some emphasis on finding players with some defensive tools. With increased success at the major league level, the Brewers won't be spending big money on early first round draft picks anymore. The Crew should look into spending some of that money on the international front.

Jim: The big problem I see with the international operations is a lack of a facility in the Dominican Republic, as their current philosophy is simply not working. Shawn Zarraga, Hitaniel Arias, and Carlos George all have potential, but the team as a whole was terrible. Something has to be remedied, and it appears Milwaukee is sincerely looking to reopen a facility in the DR. Perhaps that will help.

Ryan: It seems to me that opening a facility somewhere in Latin America is key to addressing the problem that Aaron alluded to, which is a lack of well rounded, star players. As Jay pointed out, the Brewers aren’t going be drafting at the top of the first round anytime soon, and that is where you find the “perfect players.” So if the Brewers want to hit the jackpot on a superstar, their best chance is probably the international market. That means they need to get more active looking for talent, but also more proactive about creating an environment where it can succeed.

Aaron: As for specific weaknesses in the system, I agree with Ryan that top flight pitching is non-existent. However, I see it starting to develop. Ace pitchers are hard to find and they often come unexpectedly. I see Odorizzi and Jeffress being able to be a 1-3 spot pitcher. The biggest weakness, though, is clearly the entire infield. Jim has mentioned Eric Farris recently, and he looks very promising despite his low slugging. With the exception of Escobar, there isn't a single player out there that truly projects dominance, unless you count Gamel playing first base.

Jim: There is an utter lack of quality middle infield prospects above the upper levels. Alcides Escobar appears poised to break into the big leagues as soon as this upcoming season, but the cupboards are bare after him. Mike Bell is not a legitimate prospect, in my opinion, while players like Brent Brewer are too raw to contribute in the next couple seasons. The only solid second base prospect in the system is Eric Farris, who is one of my personal favorites. He does not project to be an All-Star, but he has speed and hit .293/.332/.377 after an extremely slow start to the season.

Ryan: I think we can pretty much bet on them taking at least one middle infielder with one of those 5 picks they'll have in the first two rounds of 2009's draft.

Prospect #1: Mat Gamel

Ryan Topp — Thu, 05 Feb 2009 05:25:55 GMT

This year we’ll be releasing our top 25 list in conjunction with the people over at Bernie’s Crew, which means the list is going to posted somewhat out of order to match up with what Jim has for his Top 25. An up-to-date list of the Between the Green Pillars Top 25 can be found at the bottom of the page.

Mat Gamel / 3B / 6’0” 195 LBS / 7/26/85

It is fitting that a player like Mat Gamel would end up number one in the Brewer’s system this year. He represents perfectly the strengths and weaknesses of the Jack Zduriencik era of drafting players. Gamel is an advanced hitter who is going to hit at the major league level. He also has significant problems fielding the position that the Brewers have decided (thus far, anyway) to play him. While the positional questions create doubts about just how valuable his bat will be at the major leagues, there is no question that he is going to be a solid big league hitter, and he just keeps getting better all the time.

The Brewers drafted Gamel out of Chipola Junior College in the 4th round of the 2005 draft. As so many Brewer hitting prospects do, he hit right away, posting a .872 OPS in the Pioneer League as a 19 year old. 2006 found him still hitting (.286/.357/.467/.824) at Low-A West Virginia. His numbers got even better in 2007, with a move to Brevard County (.300/.378/.472/.850). Sure, the HRs dipped (17 to 9), but his doubles went up (28 to 37), as did the triples (5 to 8). Basically, he was still hitting the ball roughly as hard as he did previously, but the parks of the FSL were turning HRs into doubles and triples. His walk rate (9.6% career) held pretty steady throughout the last few years, and while it’s far from “elite,” it is quite playable for a young hitter who makes contact like Gamel does.

Gamel took a big step forward in nearly every aspect of his game in 2008 at AA Huntsville. He hit (.329/.395/.537/.932) with 19 HR, 35 2B and 7 3B in 508 AB’s. In fact, those prodigious numbers may have been even higher had it not been for the fact that he was suffering from right elbow tendonitis in the second half. His OPS’s in the first three months of the season were 1.128, 1.107 and 1.013, and dipped to .638 and .656 in July and August. Part of that is no doubt due to the fact that he was carrying BABIP’s well over .400 the first three months and they dipped well under that later. Gamel undoubtedly had a run of good luck in the first half, but that doesn’t explain away just how good he was. As you might expect, his 21 AB’s in AAA at the end of August netted a similar result (.685 OPS). He did get his first ML hit out of the way in a September callup, going 1 for 2 with a double. As a hitter, Gamel is more advanced than most 23 year olds. He may not post outstanding walk numbers, but his career K/BB ratio is better than 2:1 and he uses all fields.

Unfortunately, he’s not nearly as advanced at the hot corner. Errors aren’t a great measure of a defender, but when you make 53 of them (as he did in 2007), they cannot be ignored. Gamel deserves credit for improving those numbers quite a bit (30 in 2008), and his fielding % improved from .826 to .918. Of course, that is still nowhere near acceptable for the big leagues and the last thing the Brewers need is to add another poor defender to their infield. The Brewers seem determined to try and keep Gamel at third, at least to open the season, but there have been whispers that they are starting to think about other places for him to play.

If Gamel can’t stay at third, his bat will lose some value either at first or in a corner OF position. Gamel would probably require more time to adjust to the OF than he would first base, though his greatest value probably lies in RF, where he probably has the arm to succeed. The problem with that is that the Brewers currently have all three of those positions filled with players who have made the Allstar game within the last two seasons and are all under team control for the next 3+ years. So if Gamel can’t improve his defense significantly at 3B, there isn’t a place for him to play unless the Brewers trade someone or move one of their current corner OFs to center after Mike Cameron’s contract expires at the end of 2009. Despite the fact that there isn’t an obvious place for him to play at the major league level in 2009, his bat is pretty close to being ready and should be well above league average for years to come. Once they get his position sorted out and either clear a spot for or trade him, Gamel’s bat is going to open some eyes around the big leagues.

Between the Green Pillars Top 25 Prospects:

# 25: Evan Frederickson

Prospect #2: Alcides Escobar

Ryan Topp — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 03:16:00 GMT

Alcides Escobar / SS / 6’1” 175 LBS / 12/16/86

There probably isn’t any more heavily debated prospect in the Brewer’s organization than Alcides Escobar. In fact, he’s probably one of the more controversial prospects amongst evaluators in the entire game. Escobar does some things extremely well, but there are also areas in his game that need to improve before he can be a plus everyday starter at the major league level. Ultimately, the fact that he is 22 years old and has shown the ability to hit AA level pitching, taken in combination with his defense, necessitates that he be ranked this high on the list, despite lingering concerns about aspects of his game.

Escobar is one of the few success stories of the Brewer’s decision not to have a Latin-American baseball academy; instead skipping them right to the states at a young age. Escobar first opened some eyes in 2004, playing as a 17 year old in the Pioneer League (a league dominated by college juniors and seniors) posting a (.281/.348/.342/.690) line and amazing scouts with his defensive range. Over the next two seasons at Low A and then High A, Escobar’s offensive numbers stagnated somewhat. His OBP hovered around .300 both seasons and he suffered a major power outage in 2006 at Brevard (9 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR). As a 20 year old repeating at High A Brevard County, he showed major signs of growth with the bat, posting a .722 OPS and earning a promotion to AA. The numbers dipped a bit after the promotion to AA, but still were respectable for a 20 year old playing at AA for the first time.

Escobar was sent back to AA in 2008 and had the breakthrough that many had been waiting for a long time. He posted a (.328/.363/.434/.797) line in 546 AB’s, hitting 24 2B, 5 3B and 8 HR. He also stole 34 bases in 42 attempts, and excellent 80% success rate. Those are great numbers, on the surface, but lose a little luster when you break them down. Escobar’s biggest flaw on offense his is unwillingness to take walks (31 in 2008), which means that he is largely dependant on his batting average to post acceptable OBP numbers. He did that last year, with the help of a very high .380 BABIP, but he can’t count on that every year to boost the OBP. His power took a big step forward last year from before. If he can maintain that rate or improve on it, he should have playable power for a SS.

Escobar was rewarded for his good work in AA with a promotion to the majors in September, where he continued to shine in limited action. He got into 9 games (more often than not for late inning defensive purposes), but only came to bat 4 times, where he hit two singles and struck out once. Since then, the picture has clouded somewhat. Escobar played winter ball in his native Venezuela, and hit a putrid (.224/.289/.302/.591) in 124 AB’s, but hasn’t played since December 23^rd.

Defensively, Escobar combines outstanding range, soft hands, a strong and accurate arm into a package that many scouts believe is the best in the minor leagues. He has steadily improved his fielding percent, and while he still makes a decent number of errors (20 in 2008) he makes up for that with the high number of balls he gets to. If he can continue to cut down on the errors, he has a very good chance to one day be referred to as “perennial gold glove winner” Alcides Escobar.

Escobar took a big step forward in 2008, but he needs to show he can improve the walk rate and maintain the power he showed in 2008 to become anything more than a mediocre offensive player in the big leagues. If he can become an even average offensive player, Escobar’s defense will make him a very valuable asset. He’ll almost certainly open 2009 in AAA where he can continue to refine his approach at the plate. Should an injury occur at the big league level in the middle infield, Escobar will almost certainly get a shot to come up and show his stuff.