I could've been like everyone else, put my neck out on the line and handicapped the Big Ten race before the season started. I could've done that.
But I didn't. Because I figured, why make predictions like that when you don't really know what you're dealing with. I mean, if I would have told you two months ago Michigan would have beaten two teams ranked No. 4 before the second week in December, you would have called me nuts (and justifiably so). But then the Wolverines knock off UCLA and Duke and now find themselves ranked heading into Big Ten play, something their first opponent (Wisconsin) can't say.
So it's reasons like that that I didn't put up a preseason Big Ten projection. Well, that coupled with a healthy dose of procrastination.
But now that there's been 10 or so games to size everybody up, and the Big Ten season officially tips off today (Illinois at Purdue, 6 CT, ESPN2), it's about high-time to make some predictions, ya hear?
I broke the conference down into "Contenders," "Not quite contenders," "Pretenders" and "No chance in Hell, a.k.a. Remnants of Hurricane Kelvin." The order of teams within each category is random. Whichever team I felt like writing about first is at the top.
Since no good conference preview is complete without an All-Conference team, I threw in one of those too.
So, without further ado, the First Annual Buckingham U. Blogger Big Ten Preview*:
* I reserve the right to have these picks look completely uneducated in three months
(Fair warning, it's pretty long (That's what I said!).)
Buckingham U. Blogger All-Big Ten
Guards: Manny Harris (Mich), Kalin Lucas (MSU)
Forwards: Robbie Hummell (Purdue), DeShawn Sims (Mich), Raymar Morgan (MSU)
Sixth Man: Kevin Coble (NU)
The Contenders
Michigan State (9-2): Yes, the Spartans took some lumps early on, especially in blowout losses to Maryland and North Carolina (but then again, who isn't getting blown out by the Tar Heels? The "slimmest" margin of victory UNC's had thus far is 15 points.) while senior big man Goran Suton was out with a foot injury. But now that Suton's back, the Spartans are at full strength and look as good as anyone in the conference.
While we're talking about Michigan State, here's a quote I came across when I was clearing out my recorder. It's from Izzo at media day talking about dealing with some of the one-and-done talent and how that affects building a program. I find it interesting because it seems to allude to a certain program that the Spartans have had a hard time with and the fact that maybe that program doesn't have what it takes to contend for national championships.
"We’re kidding ourselves if you don’t think you have to have great players to win championships. And yet some people build it on a lot of good players and keep them for four or five years. What those programs normally do is win a lot of games, and that’s the nature of it too. It just depends where you’re program is. Ours is at now where the Final Four and some things matter. To be able to go six games in a row, five games in a row, four games to get to the Final Four, you better have some pros on your team."
Purdue (11-2): Much like the Spartans, the Boilermakers got exposed in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, getting spanked by the Dookies in West Lafayette. That, along with a heart-breaking OT loss to Oklahoma in New York, gave Purdue two losses just seven games into the season. But since then, Matt Painter's squad has been on cruise control, winning six straight. That includes a 76-58 thrashing of Steph Curry and Davidson, a game in which Purdue started the game on a 21-0 run.
A year after pretty much coming out of nowhere as the "Baby 'Boilers," Purdue is a year older and experienced. Tabbed as the preseason conference favorite, the Boilermakers will be faced with the challenge of playing as the hunted instead of the hunter.
"Every single game we play, every team is going to come and give us their best shot," sophomore E'Twaun Moore said at the Big Ten's media day. "We have to take it to another level."
That adjustment should be made easier now that the Boilermakers know what to expect from the difficult Big Ten season.
"I ran a 5-mile race one time, and that was [pretty tough]," Purdue forward and conference preseason player of the year Robbie Hummell said. "But that’s 33 minutes and its over. This is four months. So I’d say this is the most difficult."
Michigan (9-2): It was pretty much expected when John Beilein took over the controls in Ann Arbor that he would turn the Wolverines into a first-division Big Ten team. It looks like he's done that in only his second year. That the Wolverines have two losses heading into conference play isn't that much of a shock. Most teams that have games against Duke and UCLA on the docket will lose at least two games during the non-conference. But the fact that Michigan played Duke twice and UCLA once and won two of those three games is proof that the Wolverines are for real. Manny Harris is just killin' it so far (19 points, 7.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists per) and DeShawn Sims is no slouch either (17.2 points, 9.2 rebounds). That sophomore duo should propel Michigan into the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1998 and keep the Wolverines in the mix for the conference title late into the season.
Not quite contenders
Wisconsin (9-3): If there's one thing I've learned over the last seven years of watching Wisconsin basketball it's this: never count a Bo Ryan coached team out. Since Bo took over, the Badgers have the most conference wins (84, nine more than second-place Illinois) and, not surprisingly, the best average finish in the league. Add to that three regular season Big Ten titles and two conference tournament championships and it's been a pretty impressive run.
But you know what, I just don't see it happening this year. This season's Badgers don't seem to have figured "it" out quite yet. Most of that comes on the defensive end, where after two supurb years (sixth in efficiency in 2007, first in 2008) UW is back to being just good (117th this year). That should improve as the season goes on because (a) Ryan's teams always seem to improve as the year goes on, and (b) in the nine-man rotation predominently used so far, four players (sophs Tim Jarmusz and Keaton Nankivil and frosh Jordan Taylor and Rob Wilson) saw their first period of extended playing time in the non-conference season. At the same time though, after having Mike Flowers chase the opponent's top offensive weapon around the last two years, Ryan and the Badgers have delegated that role to Hughes so far. While he's acquitted himself nicely enough, it's too much to ask Hughes to do what he did against Texas — chase a guard all around the court on defense, bring the ball up and initiate the offense and still score in the teens — every night. He will wear down.
But the main reason I don't think the Badgers will end up competing for the Big Ten title this season is the fact they either don't have or haven't found "the guy" to have the ball at the end of the game. Trevon Hughes did have the nice coast-to-coast score to beat Virginia Tech, but that came as the Hokies were discombobulated on defense. Two other times (at Marquette and against Texas) Hughes had the ball in his hands late in the game and forced terrible shots that never had a prayer of going in.
Ohio State (9-1): Earlier this season, the Buckeyes would've been a contender. But now that David Lighty has a broken foot and will be out at least a month (with the possibility of sitting out the rest of the year with a medical redshirt if his recovery is slow) the Buckeyes are in a tough spot. Even if Lighty comes back right at six weeks, he'll still likely miss two games each against Michigan State and Michigan and one against Illinois, a stretch that could leave the Buckeyes in a tough spot where the conference race is concerned.
The other thing about the Buckeyes is they are a very young team. How young? How about no seniors and just two juniors see regular playing time. So those two factors (no Lighty, young team) will keep the Buckeyes from finding the top spot in conference.
Minnesota (11-0): The Big Ten's only remaining undefeated team? The Gophers. Which is great for the "U," but when you consider the Gophs have played just one true road game (a 72-71 squeaker over Colorado State) and one neutral site game (a big 70-64 win over Louisville) there are still questions about how legit they are. I mean, they're good, but how good is the question.
We should find that out within the week. The Gophers open up with games against Michigan State and Ohio State in The Barn, which should provide a pretty good measuring stick.
But one thing is for sure: there's more excitement around Tubby and these Gophers than there's been in a while. My buddy Melrose, a Mud Duck lifer and student at U of M, says this is the first season he can remember actually being excited about Gopher basketball. The lesson: Minnesota basketball is on the way up, and with Tubby in charge, it'll likely stay up for a while.
Illinois (12-1): I wanted to put the Illini in the "Contenders" category. When you look at the Illini, they probably should be. But after taking a close look at their schedule, I just don't think they're going to be there at the end of the year. They play Michigan State, Purdue, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Minnesota each twice, while getting Iowa and Northwestern (we'll get to the Wildcats in a second) just once. That's a killer schedule, probably the toughest in all of the conference. So even though they have five guys scoring in double figures and have Chester Frazier passing out 6.5 assists per game and have the nation's 12th best defense right now, I think the schedule will catch them in the end.
That said, if Bruce Weber is celebrating another conference championship in early March, I can't say I'd be all that surprised.
Northwestern (8-2): I wrote about the Wildcats and their non-conference success earlier this month, and much of what I wrote then still holds true. So instead of rehashing all of it, I'll let you just click on that link and read it for yourself.
In the meantime, here's a serious question: Historically, is Northwestern the worst major conference athletic department in Division I? I think the answer has to be yes. Watching the final three minutes of the Alamo Bowl right now, and do you realize it's been 60 years since the Wildcats won a bowl game? Sixty years. That's amazing (and could be coming to an end). But yeah, between that and never having made an NCAA basketball tournament, Northwestern has just about zero to show for its two revenue sports (though I find it very hard to believe NU basketball pulls a profit).
Anyway, just thought that was interesting, especially as we here in Wisconsin have been spoiled with some pretty great basketball and football in the last decade.
(Edit: C.J. Bacher just lost about 30 yards on third down in overtime. Looks like it'll be another cold winter in Evanston.)
Pretenders
Iowa (10-3): When your two leading scorers are freshmen and their names aren't Conley and Oden or Hummell and Moore, you're going to have a hard time winning in the Big Ten. So even though Todd Lickliter looks seems like he's got a good thing going with frosh guards Anthony Tucker and Matt Gatens, this isn't the year the Hawkeyes are going to make a move. But much like Ohio State, Iowa has a young team that should only get better as the season goes on. By the time next season rolls around and Tucker and Gatens have a season of experience under their belts, the Hawkeyes could be on the way up the Big Ten standings.
Penn State (11-2): Yes, Penn State has 11 wins, which is nice, especially when you consider the Nittany Lions won all of 15 last season. But when you look at who the Nittany Lions have beaten... well, it ain't exactly a murderer's row. NJIT (also known as the team that hasn't won since Feb. 19, 2007), New Hampshire, Lafayette, Army, Sacred Heart. Saying they had a weak schedule would be like saying the guys on World's Strongest Man are built. It just doesn't do it justice.
No chance in Hell, a.k.a. Remnants of Hurricane Kelvin
Indiana (5-7): Sorry, Tommy. You're not sniffing the top half of the conference. Not this year, probably not next year. But you want some good news? Just three seasons ago, Purdue finished 3-13 in conference and took up residence in the cellar. Just two years later, the Boilers went into the final week of the Big Ten season with a chance to win a share of the title. So things can turn around in a hurry, especially if you're a good recruiter (which Crean is).
But that's not changing the Hoosier's fortunes this season. They're going to finish last, probably by a couple games.
At media day, the first question asked of Crean was about his "tumultuous program." The reporter didn't even get to finish the question before Crean jumped in.
"No, it's in a tumultuous state," Crean corrected. "The program is great, we just gotta get through this."
"This" being the fact the Hoosiers have just one player on their roster who played meaningful minutes for IU last year (or ever, for that matter). The rest of the roster includes nine freshmen and two junior college transfers. That abject lack of experience is one of the main reasons the Hoosiers have the 307th most efficient offense in the country (out of 344) and turn the ball over on 28.9 percent of their possessions (342 out of 344).
"There’s no gauge that I’ve been through or anybody that I can really talk to … who’s been through anything like this," Crean said. "So it’s really a matter of taking each day for what it is."
Right now that means coaching a team that might end up winning just one or two games during the conference season.
Whaddaya think? Will the Badgers come on strong again this year? Think there's been some egregious oversight in the precictions? Shoot me an email.