The 25-man roster is on a plane to Milwaukee today, and we can finally see the initial weapons depot which Ned Yost will oversee. It is hard not to like this team on paper. I am having a difficult time envisioning this team sitting idle in October. Here is my take on the ’08 Brewers: The good, the bad, and the challenges that must be overcome.
THE STARTING ROTATION: Ben Sheets, Yovanni Gallardo, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Carlos Villanueva, and Manny Parra. It started out as eight men for five spots, but the unfortunate elbow injury suffered by Chris Capuano and the surprising release of Claudio Vargas leaves six for five. That is still better starting pitching depth than most teams have. Lefties Chris Narveson, who had a very impressive spring run in the Brewers’ big league camp, and Zach Jackson will be in the AAA Nashville rotation and would be the next options should an emergency arise. I maintained all spring that Doug Melvin and Ned Yost would ultimately put the best five arms in the rotation because they are doing everything they can to win every game they possibly can in 2008. You don’t move a reigning ROY to LF and a CF to 3B and then put one or two of your best starters in the minor leagues for depth purposes. Villanueva and Parra belong in the initial five-man rotation, and they were placed there at the expense of Vargas. Whoever struggles the most in the first two weeks of the season will be supplanted by Gallardo upon his return. This is a solid rotation with a legit #1, a #2 with upside, and both quality and upside at the latter end of the rotation. It would be nice to have one more legit option at AAA, but perhaps one will develop. The key to the rotation’s success is health at the top of the group. There is no substitute for Ben Sheets, and it would be very hard to replace Gallardo. This is a rotation which can hold up very well in the regular season and has the quality at the top to compete favorably in post-season match-ups. Unlike in 2007, the rotation should be a strength of the team.
THE BULLPEN: Eric Gagne (closer), Derrick Turnbow, Guillermo Mota, Salomon Torres, David Riske, Brian Shouse, and Seth McClung. Based on the track records of the arm in the pen and the way most threw the ball in spring training, this will be one of the best and deepest bullpens the Brewers have had in over a decade. For anybody who was worried that Gagne was cooked based on his experience in Boston last year, there were no signs of that in spring training, stuff-wise. We saw him up to 94 on the radar gun and he looked like a veteran who was polishing up for the regular season, not worrying about spring results. Mota and Riske were particularly impressive in Arizona. There are multiple legit options at closer should Gagne get hurt. You need a lot more than seven men to cover a pen for 162 games in most seasons because of expected attrition, and the Brewers appear to have additional depth upon which they can call if needed. LHP Randy Choate looked strong until suffering the broken finger, but he will be available later on. Mitch Stetter will set up Luis Pena at AAA, and the Brewers like both of them. Tim Dillard, Steve Bray, and Chris Narveson could also fill spots in the big league pen in a pinch. There is also payroll flexibility for Melvin in the event a pitching catastrophe creates a trade demand. Bill Castro told me this looks like the best pen he’s had in his 17 years as the bullpen coach. That’s good enough for me.
THE DEFENSE: The Brewers learned the hard way that your pitching will suffer and perhaps even collapse, as it did in 2007, if your defense isn’t strong enough to be a complement. The club made bold moves to address this area of weakness in the off-season. The transition of Ryan Braun into a left-fielder went extremely well. He had very few problems in left despite the difficult conditions in Arizona. I’m sure there will be occasional speed bumps for Braun, but he is such an incredible athlete that I think it is just a matter of time until we are discussing whether he is better suited for center or right. Brewer fans will quickly learn to love Mike Cameron’s presence in center field. I think the outfield defense will be above average with range as good as any in baseball. Nobody’s outfield can out-run Braun, Cameron, and Hart. For the first 25 games, it looks like we’ll see a steady diet of Tony Gwynn in CF, and he is also a plus defender. Infield-wise, Hall is clearly an upgrade defensively at third, and he has loved getting back to the infield. The heady Hardy is a top defender with average range at SS who should get to more balls as he uses his experience to maximize the value of positioning. Weeks struggled defensively in camp at times, but we’ve seen this before, and he knows how to slow down and smooth out. Neither he nor Prince Fielder are ready to challenge for gold gloves, but they are both putting in a lot of extra work to make sure they can hold up their end on defense. Both have tremendous pride and want to be known as all-around players, and with their athletic abilities, I think we will see them keep progressing. Jason Kendall is clearly an upgrade defensively over the departed Johnny Estrada and threw the ball well in camp. Kendall has a great reputation for working with pitchers and pitching coaches, and there is optimism that he will have a positive impact on the club. Should the Brewers suffer injuries on the infield, the defense should not suffer. 21-year-old SS Alcides Escobar was a revelation in Arizona and would be one of the best shortstops in the league defensively if he was pressed into Major League duty. Craig Counsell can handle any of the infield spots defensively coming off the bench. Abraham Nunez provides additional protection as he toils at AAA for Nashville with his versatility and glove. The club didn’t play very well defensively in spring training despite all the emphasis by the front office and coaching staff, but I’m not too worried about that. When the bell rings, the concentration levels will go up measurably and that should translate into better performance on the field. I’m not ready to call the defense an area of strength just yet, but I’m optimistic that it will be good enough to keep the pitching staff from suffering.
THE OFFENSE: I love this team’s offensive talent. It will be a joy for Brewers’ fans to watch these young stars do their thing offensively. There is big, big power, very good speed, and much-improved base-running. Seven of the eight regular players could/should hit 20 or more home runs, and Fielder, Braun and Hall could all top 35. Mike Cameron looked like a better fit to me in spring than I had expected. I’m a little concerned by the presence of only one lefty stick in the lineup, but not overly so. I see this team possibly leading the league in scoring. I also think the speed and base-running have reached a point where they should be able to manufacture runs more easily in large pitcher’s parks like they see out west. Hart, Cameron and Weeks are among the best base-runners in the NL. Clearly the offense is the biggest strength of the 2008 Brewers, and there are few lineups in either league that I like better. The bench may get rusty, but there is plenty of talent there, too. Yost will have defensive options (Counsell, Gwynn), offensive options (Dillon, Gross), and veteran guidance. I don’t see any of the reserve players causing problems because they are unhappy with their limited roles, which we couldn’t say last year.
THE LEADERSHIP: I can’t think of a better young player to have emerging as a leader than Prince Fielder. The ideal leader is a guy who doesn’t beat his own chest, always hustles, and plays the game with more intensity than anyone else in the league. The fact that he is also one of the best young hitters to come along in the NL in a long time only adds to the picture. The rest of the young guys also come with nearly ideal make-ups. I can’t think of another player in baseball who would have handled the challenges of the last two years better than Bill Hall, who is proving to be one of the ultimate team guys in the game. Selfishness is a disease in competitive sports which has killed many a team. I see no hint of selfishness in the Brewers’ clubhouse, which is the highest compliment I can pay to a team.
THE MANAGEMENT: Ned Yost has a new right-hand man in Ted Simmons, and everybody has been thrilled with Simba’s presence. He would seem to have all of the qualities that an ideal bench coach would have; most importantly the unblinking trust of the manager. Doug Melvin has made so many terrific moves in the last few years that it is hard to find any GM in the game who would inspire more confidence among the fans. Mark Attanasio has given Melvin everything he needs and has promised monetary flexibility should future needs arise. What else could you want?
THE DIVISION: The Cubs are clearly the biggest competition for the Brewers, and this may end up being a year where you need to win 95 games to take the Central. The Pirates and Cardinals appear to be long shots to play .500 ball. The Reds and Astros are both capable of becoming dark horses, but each could also go south because of a lack of arms. With the unbalanced schedule and the quality depth of teams in the East and the West, the wild-card winner could definitely come from the Central Division.
THE INTANGIBLES: As much as we all hated the way 2007 ended, I see it as a positive for the outlook in 2008. This team is hungry and still has a bad taste in its mouth over the lost opportunity last season. They aren’t the marked team…the Cubs are. The pressure is in Chicago, not Milwaukee. The karma around the Brewers’ team seems excellent, and the club will be awash in good feeling every time it walks through the doors of Miller Park where tickets are already in scarce supply. The Brewers have developed perhaps the best home field advantage in the National League the last couple of seasons, and the fans deserve a lot of that credit. Do not underestimate the impact of such a perfect storm of positives: An extremely talented, largely home-grown young team in a fantastic ballpark with fans who are ready to explode with love. These circumstances are much rarer than just the appearance of a good baseball team on the scene. The last time I can remember seeing a set-up like this was 1994 in Cleveland, or in the NL it would be back in 1991 in Atlanta (although without the ballpark).
THE KEYS: This looks like a potential 90+ win team to me right now. What could derail that? Injury problems at the top of the rotation, a reappearance of a porous defense, or a particularly key injury to a position player like Fielder. Prince is a lineup presence along the lines that Bonds and Pujols have been in recent years and, while there is an abundance of offensive talent in Milwaukee, his absence would make a big impact. I like the bullpen on paper but have some worries about the miles on its collective odometer. I don’t think the loss of any single member of the pen would fell the club, but I wouldn’t want to see two or more of those guys get hurt or struggle mightily early in the season. There is no way to protect against all eventualities, of course, which is why Doug Melvin, backed by his smart, competitive owner, remains a vital cog.
THE SUMMARY: Making predictions about pending baseball seasons are always difficult and must be kept in their proper perspective. Much can (and will) happen over 162 games. The worst-case scenarios for the ’08 Brewers are probably a .500 type of finish, while the ceiling for this team, in my opinion, is winning the World Series. It has been a long time since there was a team capable of running the table in Milwaukee, as I’m sure you know. The best part of it all is going to be watching the young stars transition from figuring out how to play Major League baseball to figuring out how to win Major League games. My call is that they figure it out sooner than later. For the first time since I came to Milwaukee 13 seasons ago, I can give you this advice: Keep your October calendar open.