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Context For Trade Rumors

  The Brewers will try to beat another Pirate lefty tonight as Dave Bush goes against Paul Maholm.  As we have come to expect when the boys are at home, Milwaukee crushed the ball all afternoon on the Fourth of July, leading to an easy win in the opener of this ten-game homestand.  Between now and the All-Star break, the club has a chance to rattle off a steady supply of wins and give the Cubs and Cardinals a look at what life is going to be like in the second half of the season.  The Brewers have survived most of the challenging portions of the 2008 schedule, and the team is in good position to start changing the standings in the NL Central.

  No Brewer, or human, is hotter than JJ Hardy.  He has a 16-game hitting streak now and is ten for his last twelve at the plate, with the only two outs he has made being collected on the warning track.  The bat speed and power he is generating right now are jaw-dropping.  Defensively, I've never seen him play better than he has the last few weeks.  I spoke with the always-humble Hardy after yesterday's game.  You can hear what he thinks about his All-Star chances HERE.

  Now to the trade rumors:  Everyday there is another juicy story, most of them by Tom Haudricourt of the Journal-Sentinel, about the Brewers' pursuit of the reigning Cy Young award-winner in the AL, C.C. Sabathia.  There is nothing a baseball fan covets more than a provocative trade rumor chock full of huge names, especially when there appears to be great credibility to the story.  Tom's latest information (HERE) has the Brewers offering Matt LaPorta, Taylor Green, and a third prospect, possibly Lorenzo Cain, for Sabathia.  I talked to Huntsville manager Don Money yesterday via telephone (eavesdrop HERE) about, among other things, the flock of scouts following all those top Brewer prospects from his team and the first-half performance of LaPorta. 

  Here are my thoughts on the prospects being mentioned:  LaPorta would be the centerpiece of the deal from the Indians' perspective, but 3B Taylor Green might end up being just as good.  Green is showing solid power, good strike zone knowledge, and average defense at Brevard County, which is in the pitching-heavy Florida State League (High-A).  My good friends at Baseball America had him as the 17th-best prospect in the organization last winter, and with his performance to date in the FSL, I would put him as one of the fastest-rising prospects on the farm.  LaPorta, the 2007 first-round pick out of Florida, is almost certain to be a solid big-leaguer at worst.  He is likely to be a 30-HR/year man for a lot of years in the Majors, and he should also carry both a respectable batting average and a good OBP.  His only "downside" is that he is going to project as only an average outfielder or first-baseman who doesn't have great range.  With his offense, I don't think anyone will notice.  He is a stud, probably ready for prime-time within a year.  This trade, if it happens, would hurt for a long time as we all watch LaPorta and Green become good Major League players and belong to Cleveland for the first six years of their careers at the least.

  That said, I think the addition of Sabathia to the Brewers right now would make it better than even-money that Milwaukee would reach the playoffs for the first time in over a quarter-century.  The trade might shorten the length of time the Brewers enjoy an elite status in the NL, but without it, the club would have very little margin for error the rest of the season as they try to run down the Cubs and Cards and hold off other wild-card contenders.  The other aspect of it to consider is what would happen once the Brewers are in the playoffs.  With Sheets and Sabathia one-two in a short playoff series, the Brewers would be capable of beating any team in the NL for sure and possibly any team in either league.  Without the trade, it would be much tougher for the Brewers to match up with some other clubs' number's two and three starters in a playoff series.

  I do think Cleveland will ultimately make the deal, however, GM Mark Shapiro is reportedly still entertaining other offers.  I really do not believe that another club will be able to match a LaPorta-Green offer, and I suspect the Indians already know that.  I'm guessing they are trying to get Doug Melvin to panic and throw in more.  I doubt that will happen because I'm guessing Melvin and his front office are already somewhat sick over the prospect of trading away two such quality prospects for a half-season-rental of a pitcher.  Plus, one of those prospects, Green, is Canadian!

  Sabathia's next scheduled start is Tuesday.  Look for a lot of newspapers to be sold between now and then.  In the meantime, I will continue to rue the severed knee ligament of Yovanni Gallardo.  The apparent cost of the ACL repair can now be measured as one lost season for Gallardo and at least two lost blue-chip prospects forever, assuming a deal gets cut.  Like Brewers' fans needed more reasons to hate Wrigley Field, the site of Yovanni's demise.  In the end, if the Brewers end up playing baseball longer than the Cubs do this fall, it will all seem well worth it.
 

Comments

 

joebrown76 said:

Ok let me get this straight.  The Brewers want to trade away their future for a half season pitcher?  I understand that Sabathia is a great pitcher and would be a great asset.  Also with the Brewers in contention for a playoff spot, why not go for him. But to trade away 3 future potential all stars is difficult for me.  LaPorta is a GREAT player!!  A player that would produce for many years to come.  Not just 2 1/2 months like Sabathia would.  What happens when Prince doesnt like the offer we through at him and he bolts? Then we will be back at square one without a producing First Baseman.  (even though he has been off this year)

Sabathia will not stay past this year.  I just dont see it happening.  If your gonna trade for a great player, do it in the offseason and ensure that the player will stay around longer than 2 1/2 months.  Our long term future and success is more important than trading it all away for short term fix.

July 5, 2008 7:26 PM
 

WabenoBarber said:

It is about time we make a move.........   We need to do this, if we are to make a run at this thing.  It is a business. I hate the Cub, and if this is what it takes, I am all in!

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July 5, 2008 8:55 PM
 

aegisfc said:

The future is now. As much as I hate giving up guys like LaPorte and Green, the fact is the Brewers probably can't re-sign Sheets next year, making this year their best prospect of going deep into the playoffs.

Make the trade, and hold you nose when you think of what you gave up 2 or 3 years down the road, and hope it works out.

July 6, 2008 6:10 AM
 

ebue said:

I understand all of you who disagree with the trade.  LaPorte and Green are outstanding players and have a bright, bright future.  But, like my previous poster said the future is now.  We add two legitimate aces to our staff.  And with the way Parra and McClung is pitching who know how good this team can be.  

Yes we are bound to lose Sheets and/or Sabathia which is why the trade makes more sense then ever.  If we can't have either in the future, then let us have both of them now and make a run.  Plus 1st base is one of the easiest positions to replace in the minors and majors.  So for all of you who our worried about losing Laporte and Feidler calm down.  Has any one mentioned that if we lose Sabathia in the off-season we get five draft picks.  I'll give Jack Zduriencik five draft picks any day.  Great move by Mr. Melvin and Mr. Attanasio!  GO CREW!

July 6, 2008 10:12 PM
 

Jim Powell said:

To put things in their proper perspective, think back to last year.  2007 marked the 25th anniversary of that great '82 AL Championship Brewers team.  People were talking about the moves made by the GM and the manager in '82 like it was just yesterday.  A generation of Wisconsinites fell in love with the game of baseball because of that team.  Doug Melvin had a chance to add the best pitcher in the American League without losing a single player off his Major League club.  It was a no-brainer.  As you can see from my blogging, I have a high opinion of LaPorta and Green and hate to lose either one of them, but a team in this position has to make this move or be ridiculed for cowardice.  If the team fails to make the playoffs it will seem like a big sacrifice to have made, but there is no way to know in advance how the season will play out so you have to take the most intelligent calculated risk you can and know that, at worst, you went down swinging.  That is my opinion anyway.  Thanks for your comments.

July 7, 2008 7:24 PM