• Exorcism

    There were two issues that destroyed Green Bay's season in 2008: an inability to score points at crucial times and an inability to make a stop with the game on the line.  With a little more than 12 minutes to play and the Packers down by two in a hard-fought game against Chicago the moment to erase the pain of 2008 appeared to have arrived. 

    Chicago ran an ill-conceived fake punt that was stuffed short of the first down marking, giving the Packers the ball at Chicago's 30.  But the Packers could only gain nine yards and even though Mason Crosby's field goal gave the Packers the lead the feeling was the Packers let a major opportunity slip away.  That feeling was reinforced when the Packers allowed Chicago to convert three third down plays on a lengthy 69 yard drive.  Now the Bears led 15-13 and there it was: the offense can't deliver in the clutch and the defense can't hold when it needs to.

    But it's 2009 now and as the season begins what happened last year becomes less and less relevant.  So when Aaron Rodgers, the main target of naysayers who don't believe Rodgers is a clutch quarterback, fired a perfect strike to Greg Jennings for the game winning score the demons of '08 had been partially exorcised.  There was still the business of making a stop.  Jay Cutler had been erratic throughout the night but in the second half he made the plays to bring Chicago back. 

    But again, it's 2009.  Chicago's last ditch effort lasted one play as Al Harris secured the 21-15 victory with an interception, the fourth of the night thrown by Cutler.  This certainly wasn't the best effort by the Packers but unlike last year it was Green Bay making plays down the stretch.  For awhile it looked like this game wouldn't be that close.  Cutler was picked off three times and the only points generated by Chicago was a safety.  The Bears couldn't run the ball, couldn't use their tight ends and couldn't take advantage of good field position.

    Of course, a Bears-Packers game is rarely easy and in the third quarter Chicago struck back.  The 3-4 defense has been stellar but there were a few coverage issues one of which led to a 36 yard touchdown by Devin Hester.  Meanwhile the Packers were never able to get into a rhythm offensively, due mainly to a huge night from Chicago's Adewale Ogunleye who was in the backfield all night.  Suddenly Chicago had the lead and it appeared the Packers were headed down the same path as 2008.

    In the fourth quarter the Packers had only three possessions, the Crosby field goal, the Jennings touchdown and the victory formation to end the game.  Those 10 points were just enough to grab the win. It didn't have to be as close as it was but in the end the Packers made the plays.  Of course the Packers got a big division win to open last season as well but by closing out the win the Packers erased the pain of 2008.

  • Know Your Enemy, Part Two

    The Chicago Bears have long been defined by three traits: a rugged defense, a solid running attack and a complete lack of talent at quarterback.  For almost two decades the Bears have had a revolving door of forgettable quarterbacks but that came to a halt on April 2.  That's the day the Bears acquired Pro Bowler Jay Cutler from Denver.  Suddenly, Chicago had the missing piece of the puzzle.  Or did they?

    While Cutler is a major upgrade, one of the burning issues surrounding Chicago is who exactly is he going to throw to?  Last year's group featured Rashied Davis and converted receiver Devin Hester, who led the Bears with a mere 665 receiving yards.  The Bears do have two good pass catching tight ends in Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark but even with that duo and Hester there is a lack of playmakers who can stretch the field.  Chicago is banking on Hester to continue his development while also looking for contributions from Earl Bennett and rookie Juaquin Iglesias.  Apparently, Donald Driver knew what he was talking about.  Cutler put up more than 4,500 yards through the air and tallied 25 touchdowns but that was in a more aggressive offense with better receivers.  Will Cutler come close to those numbers with this group?

    The player that caught the most passes was rookie running back Matt Forte, who piled up 1,238 yards on the ground to go with 63 catches for 477 yards.  While Forte proved he can be a workhorse back, he hit the rookie wall late last year.  In the last three games of '08 Forte gained just 157 yards.  However, coming into this year Forte should still play a large role in Chicago's attack despite the presence of Cutler.  The Bears also addressed the offensive line in the offseason by signing massive left tackle Orlando Pace.  If Pace stays healthy and if Chris Williams can solidify the other side of the revamped line, Forte and Cutler should have no problem breathing life into a stale offense.

    The Bears have been a good defensive team for awhile but Chicago took a step backward last year, finishing 16th in scoring defense and 21st in total defense (right behind the Packers.)  The biggest problems came from the secondary and this was never more evident than in Week 17 when Houston ripped Chicago through the air, knocking the Bears out of the playoffs.  To alleviate this, head coach Lovie Smith will handle the defensive playcalling duties.  The Bears also released veteran safety Mike Brown in the offseason.

    Up front Chicago was much better against the run, finishing fifth in the league.  Of course, the Bears will also have one of the better linebacking units with Lance Briggs coming off a Pro Bowl year.  The plan is to generate enough of a pass rush from ends Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye to free up help for the secondary.  Chicago did not have any day one picks in the NFL Draft but the Bears continued the defensive youth movement by going defense in the third and fourth rounds with three defensive picks.

    On special teams the Bears excelled in '08.  Kicker Robbie Gould was perfect from inside 40 yards and punter Brad Maynard buried opponents inside the 20 more times than anyone else last year.  The X factor, as always, is Hester.  In his first two seasons Hester racked up 11 return touchdowns and was one of the most electrifying special teamers in the NFL.  Last year Hester was not as impressive in a scaled back role but is still dangerous with the ball in his hands.

    The Bears finished 9-7 last year despite being poor at both passing and defending the pass.  This season it all goes back to the inexperience at wide receiver but with Forte in the backfield and Cutler under center the Bears have their sights set on the NFC North crown.

  • Know Your Enemy

    In the classic textbook for battle, Sun Tzu advised readers of "The Art of War" to know your enemy.  This lesson can translate into NFL success.  Every division winner in 2008 posted a winning divisional record, including Super Bowl participants Pittsburgh and Arizona, both of whom went unbeaten in division play.  Miami and San Diego clinched division titles with intradivisional wins in Week 17 of last season.  It's a simple formula: to be successful in the NFL, you must win within your division and to do that, you must know your enemy.

    The Detroit Lions are no threat to win the NFC North but after an 0-16 debacle in '08 there's no place to go but up.  Detroit has put together a trio of young talent that could be the cornerstone for years to come.

    There's serious talk out of Detroit that overall number one pick Matthew Stafford will start at quarterback right out of the gate.  Atlanta and Baltimore succeeded last year with rookie QBs but both teams had two things going for them that the Lions don't: good defense and a solid offensive line.

    Detroit gave up a bone-crunching 52 sacks last season, more than three sacks per game on average.  If the Lions are going to throw Stafford into the fire right away, they'd better keep him upright.  Surprisingly, the Lions chose not to upgrade the offensive line either through free agency or the draft.  Instead, the Lions are looking for development from young players like tackle Gosder Cherilus. 

    Despite being ranked toward the bottom of nearly every major offensive category, the Lions had two bright spots.  Rookie running back Kevin Smith gained nearly 1,000 yards and did so at a clip of 4.1 yards per carry.  Smith also caught 39 passes for 286 yards.  Second year wide receiver Calvin Johnson recorded 12 touchdowns and 1,331 receiving yards in a breakout season.  Combine those two with the offseason acquisition of Bryant Johnson and fellow first rounder Brandon Pettigrew and Stafford will have plenty of options to throw to, but of course that's provided he'll have time to throw.

    For as bad as Detroit was offensively they were far worse on defense.  For starters, there was a complete lack of playmakers.  The Lions snared only four interceptions in 2008.  Granted, teams didn't have to throw that often but the Lions intercepted opposing QBs on less than 1% of attempts thrown.  By comparison, the Packers picked off passes at a rate of 4%.  The only thing Detroit had going for them was getting to the quarterback.  The Lions had 30 sacks and recovered 16 fumbles but despite that the Lions had a turnover margin of -9. 

    But unlike the offensive line, the Lions were aggressive in upgrading the defense.  Detroit went after each phase of the defense in free agency with cornerback Phillip Buchanon, defensive tackle Grady Jackson and linebacker Larry Foote.  The Lions also traded for linebacker Julian Peterson.  Rebuilding the defense is a work in progress but those moves should go a long way in helping a unit that ranked last in both total and scoring defense.

    There's no way Detroit goes 0-16 again but don't expect a Miami-like turnaround for the Lions in 2009.  During the 1-15 disaster of 2007 the Dolphins were hampered by numerous injuries but despite that Miami lost six games by three points or less.  To be sure, Detroit had injuries in '08 but the Lions weren't nearly as competitive, with only one loss by three points or less.  First year coach Jim Schwartz has his hands full as the Lions begin another rebuilding project.  But with an improved defense and an offense that looks much better than it did last year at this time, Schwartz should be able to lead the Lions to their first win since December 23, 2007.

  • Can The Packers Reclaim The NFC North?

    There's a philosophy in the NFL that states you're either getting better or you're getting worse but you never stay the same.  So after a 6-10 campaign, what direction are the Packers headed in?

    The Packers appeared in the NFC Championship game in '07 and followed it up with six wins the next year...so, getting worse, right?  Not so fast.  Only one playoff team from 2007 made it back to the postseason in '08 and the NFL is designed to allow teams to rise, fall and rise again quickly.  It's what Atlanta was able to do last year and what the likes of the Packers, Cowboys and Seahawks are trying to do this year.

    The Packers are bringing back nearly every starter from last year and surely that continuity will help.  Aaron Rodgers put that first pressure-packed year behind him and now can solidify himself as one of the best young passers in the game.  It will help that Rodgers will have one of the deepest receiving corps in the league at his disposal.  Defensively the Packers are healthier and deeper with the arrival of Anthony Smith, B.J. Raji and Clay Matthews.

    Oh but that doesn't mean there aren't question marks.  Of course, there's the switch to the 3-4 defense.  Do the Packers have the right personnel?  Is everyone on the same page?  Offensively how will Rodgers be effective if the offensive line doesn't protect him?  Will Ryan Grant return to form or has he officially lost a step?

    Time will tell with the 3-4 defense.  Ted Thompson did an excellent job filling needs with the picks of Raji and Matthews.  Sometimes Thompson's picks are head scratchers but at least on paper those two are spot on.  Don't overlook the element of coaching.  Dom Capers brings a deep resume and success has followed him at every stop on the coordinator level.  It's really one of those things you just won't know about until September.

    The real concern should be the offensive line.  The best units in the NFL are the most cohesive, a trait that was lacking last year.  Tackle is perhaps the biggest issue as the Packers must replace Mark Tauscher and there has to be some concern over whether Chad Clifton can get through the season healthy.  The Packers have the talent at the skills positions but without a good offensive line that talent might go to waste.

    There is quality up and down the Packers roster.  Last year injuries and ineffectiveness at both offensive and defensive lines derailed the season.  The lack of pass rush was addressed for the moment with the new 3-4 and the two first round draft picks.  The offensive line is a bit more fuzzy but manageable.  If the pieces fall into place along the o-line and if everyone is on the same page in the 3-4, the Packers should have no problem challenging for the division title.  The NFL system is designed to prevent the well-run organizations from staying down for too long.  Based on the moves of the offseason it appears the Packers are indeed getting better.

  • Can't Buy A Break

    Aaron Rodgers can't lead the Packers in the final two minutes.  That's all people have been saying as the Packers piled up close loss after close loss.  Finally, late in the fourth quarter against the Bears it looked like the Packers would finally catch a break.  Finally, great field position after a 32 yard kickoff return by Will Blackmon with a 15 yard horse collar penalty tacked on.  Finally, a crucial conversion as Rodgers hit James Jones for nine yards on a third-and-eight.  All that remained was a 38 yard field goal for Mason Crosby.

    But the Packers wouldn't catch a break.  A blocked field goal, a coin toss in Chicago's favor and seven plays later the Bears won it 20-17.  Will this finally pipe down the naysayers?  Rodgers did just about all he could to deliver a win in the final minute.  The real shame is that a spirited defensive effort will be lost in the shuffle.  The Packers forced two turnovers, sacked Kyle Orton three times and held Matt Forte in check for all but two possessions.

    The effort was inspired but not flawless.  Again, the Packers had scoring chances but Crosby missed a field goal late in the third quarter and much earlier in the game the Packers turned it over at midfield.  Special teams was again a problem.  The Packers allowed a huge return after opening a 7-0 lead that led to a Chicago field goal.  Then the Bears recovered a punt that grazed Jarrett Bush.  That miscue led to a touchdown.  Together that's an easy 10 points for the Bears.  On those two drives the Bears covered only 43 yards.  Defensively, you couldn't ask for much more.  But in a game where the defense was tight and Rodgers was crisp the Packers would find a way to lose.  And in a year where the Packers can't buy a break, it was a fitting end. 

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