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November 2008 - Posts
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The Green Bay Packers will meet the Chicago Bears for the 176th time. There are not a lot of secrets between these two teams and their disdain for one another fuels this rivalry.
However, it’s been Lovie Smith’s ability to keep his promise to Bears fans (his first priority is to beat the Green Bay packers) that has frustrated Packers fans and head coach Mike McCarthy. McCarthy is 1-3 vs. the Bears and is still searching for his first win over the team from Illinois at Lambeau Field.
Today’s action takes on added meaning as the Packers (4-5) are in desperate need of a win. If the Packers should fall, at home to Chicago (5-4), they would then be 2 games behind the Bears in the divisional standings with only 6 games remaining. That’s an almost insurmountable deficit this late in the season. The fact that the Packers offense has only put up 2 touchdowns in the last 10 quarters, Aaron Rodgers has not been able to come up with that signature late drive for a victory and their defense has yet to be able to muster a big stop late in a ball game all means that this team, with a loss today, could spiral downward for the remainder of the season. By the way, the Packers would fall a game under .500 at home if they drop this game as well.
Look for Mike McCarthy to give the ball to Ryan Grant as often as he can. If Grant gets the ball 25 times or more, chances are the Packers will walk away with a hard fought victory. If McCarthy strays from the run game, as he’s done in the past far too often, he will again be putting the onus on Rodgers shoulder, in semi-windy conditions, to win this one. Yes, I know the Bears defense ranks 4th in the NFL against the run but remember, if the dink and dunk style of the West Coast Offense works the way it should, Rodgers should be able to open up the run with the pass. The Bears, over their last 4 games, have given up 107 points. The Bears secondary is susceptible. I refer to the sentence prior!
The Packers defensively need to shadow Matt Forte. Forte’s been the go-to-guy for Orton (713 yard rushing and 282 yards receiving). With A.J. Hawk taking over for the injured Nick Barnett, it’ll be interesting to see if the 1st round pick will be able to keep up with the task of covering the backs out of the backfield. Hawk hasn’t been up to the task in the recent past but the move to the middle, his more natural position, may ignite a statistically slumping Hawk. For the rest of the defense, let’s see what Defensive Coordinator Bob Sanders can come up with. The Packers haven’t been able to establish any kind of a consistent pass rush so it’s vital that Sanders’ defense figure out a way to blitz, stunt and scheme their way to and ailing Kyle Orton (ankle).
Because this is a must-win for the Packers and it’s a Gold Package Game (Milwaukee ticket holder’s game) I’d expect the Lambeau Field faithful to be as disruptive as they’ve ever been. I think the Packers get a 27-21 win over their foes from just south of the border.
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For those of you who continually wonder how a 13-3 team can falter the following season, here’s a few statistics to keep in mind.
In the last 30 years: * Out of 60 conference championship games played, 30 of those games had participants who had NOT been in the conference championship the year prior (18 in the AFC and 12 in the NFC)
* Out of the 120 teams that participated in those 60 conference championship games only 33 of those teams were repeat representatives (13 in the AFC and 20 in the NFC)
* In the same time frame; out of the 60 teams that participated in those Super Bowls, only 17 found their way back to their conference championship the following season (9 in the AFC and 8 in the NFC)
* The last 3 years in a row, the team that lost the NFC Championship Game has not made the playoffs the following season.
* Since 1990, out of the 68 teams that participated in the conference championship games, 28 of those teams did NOT make the playoffs the following season (11 from the AFC and 17 from the NFC including the 1996-97 Green Bay Packers.
* Since 1990, out of the 34 teams that LOST their conference championship, 14 of those teams did NOT make the playoffs the following season (6 in the AFC and 8 in the NFC)
The NFL is considered the ultimate team sport. While one man can certainly be a positive or a negative, it’s obvious that he isn’t the only cog in the machine that is called a TEAM. Injuries, free agency, coaching changes, player productivity…it all changes. Change is the only thing that remains the same in the NFL.
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“We’re going to be defined by our defense and running the football.”Those are the words of Packers Head Coach, Mike McCarthy, from an interview I did with him in July.
What’s happened to his vision since then? Injuries, declining talent, an over-estimation of player’s capabilities up front and McCarthy himself, steering away from his own run-first philosophy.Losing Cullen Jenkins hurt the Packers ability to stop the run, there’s no doubt about that. The Packers up front, defensively, are what they are and that’ll have to be addressed in the off-season but offensively, you can look to Thompson’s belief in College, Spitz and Moll as mainstays within the interior of the line. All three of these guys were benched at one point last year for inadequate play. To think that they’re that much better this season was ludicrous. You could see Chad Clifton beginning to slide somewhat but who would have predicted his dramatic inconsistency this year.
With a new quarterback, you’re hand-picked quarterback, under center why in the world would you not have spent more cash (God knows the Packers are sitting on a mountain of it) to bolster the O line? Why would you not give yourself a better opportunity to run the ball and prevent “your guy” from getting slammed to the turf as if he’s the little inept wrestler on WWE’s Monday Night Raw?It’s easy to see, hindsight being what it is, that this off-season was wasted dealing with “As The Brett Turns” and not paying attention to what really matters, getting better and not standing still in the NFL. Brett Favre wouldn’t be any better because let’s face it, a quarterback can’t throw from his back and a running back can’t run where there isn’t day light.If the Packers survive the rest of the season and get into the post-season, it’ll be an early exit if they face a physical team in the trenches. Déjà vu if you will.
It’s the end of February thru the end of April that I’m now most interested in.
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There’s not a lot to be said about the Packers 28-27 loss to the Vikings.You’ve got an offensive line, as a whole, that’s inadequate at best, a defense that, when the chips are down, can’t stop a quality run game, a coach that made critical mistakes down the stretch and a completely undisciplined team that’s THE MOST PENALIZED TEAM IN THE ENTIRE NFL.
No longer can Mike McCarthy say, “well, we’re gonna look at the films and make those corrections this week”. You’re 9 games into the season and your team is still making the same, pathetic errors that they were making in week 1. My question to Mike McCarthy is this, when you say you’re going to make those corrections, what exactly are you doing because it’s clearly not working? Is there a new approach on the horizon this week or should we expect the same ole’ same ole’ from a clearly outmanned team?
This isn’t rocket science folks. It’s poor execution.
* 2 offensive touchdowns in the last 10 quarters of football.
* Rodgers has been sacked 21 times for 137 yards and hit 39 additional times so far this season.
(15 hits on Rodgers in the first 4 games / 24 in the last 5)
* 81 penalties for 655 yards
* 154.5 yards per game rushing is what the Green Bay Packers defense is giving up.
That ranks 28th in the entire NFL (5th worst)
* The Packers defense has given up 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more. That’s tied for 4th worst in the NFL.
Let me say this, the Packers secondary has been the saving grace for this defense. Had it not been for Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson’s INT’s, this season would be beyond ugly thus far.
The Packers have the Bears on the horizon and are now facing a must-win situation.
There’s no room for error here. If you fall behind the division leaders by 2 games with 6 to go, it’ll be almost impossible to come back and win the division, especially without the tie-breakers falling in your favor. Even more reason that this is a must-win game for the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers can’t get bigger, faster or stronger in the next week….so what’s the answer?
Coaching! Mike McCarthy and his staff need to put this team in to position to win and they need to scheme for the capabilities of their talent.
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With Jared Allen banged up, at the very least, and the Humpty Dump loaded with the same surface that the Packers practice on in the Don Hutson Center, look for Ryan Grant to get numerous opportunities to run the ball against the Minnesota Vikings today. While the Williams D-line bookends are still viable, Mike McCarthy remained committed this week to running the football. “You have to run the football in the NFL. Time, down and distance will decide what you run and when you run but you need to run the ball and we’re getting close to running it well”, McCarthy proclaimed on Wednesday. We all can’t wait to see that. With the zone-blocking scheme now in it’s 3rd year and an offensive line that keeps telling us, “We’re getting close”, the question becomes what’s so hard about it? Pulling and trapping guards and tackles seems to be a much more difficult offensive scheme to run but for some reason, the Packers linemen can’t seem to “get it”. I understand that a superior running back makes an offensive line look good and vise versa but let’s be honest, there’s a reason that Ryan Grant was on the practice squad and there’s reason that there was so much shuffling on the O-line last year, they simply aren’t that good.
Clifton is severely on the down slope of his career and doesn’t sell out on the backside block. Spitz, College and Moll have all been benched for poor performances at one point or another in their short history with Green Bay, Sitton’s a work in progress and Tauscher’s, while the best offensive lineman the Packers have, also creeping over the hill and seeing the horizon of his tenure in Green Bay coming to an end.
I’ve said it before, the travesty in the offseason wasn’t the Brett Favre saga, it was the inability by Ted Thompson to create quality depth in the trenches. The defensive line isn’t much better. It’s been severely depleted via injury and the jettison of Corey Williams to Cleveland. KGB, while a tough pill to swallow for a character individual, it was a necessary move for the mere lack of production vs. the almighty dollar.
Where does all of this complaining leave me?
Well, today is a day where the Packers have something to prove. Perfect weather conditions, coming off of the most physical game they’ve played in a long time, couple that with a hostile environment and you’ve got a true litmus test to figure out where this team really is.
Look for Grant to run at least 25 times. Look for the defensive line to get tested by Adrian Peterson. Look for Woodson and Harris to be tested by Bernard Berrian and Gus Frerotte and look for the re-establishment of Greg Jennings as the dominant deep threat in the NFL. Oh yeah, look for the Packers to win 27-21.
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