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January 2009 - Posts
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For the last couple of weeks, football fans have speculated, discussed, quibbled, wagered and witnessed the 2008-09 NFL Playoffs. I, on the other hand, have spewed my opinions, pontificated my picks and, after the second week in a row, have had to admit that if I were a betting man I would be destitute. In week 1 of the post-season, I went 1 and 3. This past weekend, again I’m 1 and 3. To call the playoffs, in my opinion, unexpected would be putting it mildly….then again, maybe not. I’ll explain my point eventually.
The surprise team, to me, is the Arizona Cardinals. They won the NFC West, but let’s be honest, that’s clearly one of the worst divisions in football. The Cardinals limped into the post-season by allowing a total of 82 point in weeks 14 and 15 to Minnesota and New England. Their last game was a struggle at home, a 34-21 win, against a banged up and depleted Seattle Seahawks club who was simply trying to get the season over with. Arizona should have been beaten on Wild Card Weekend right?
AP Photo/Chuck Burton
Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and company have been spectacular since entering the post-season but the real muscle has come from Arizona’s defense. Ranked 19th overall in the regular season, the Cardinals defense is #2 in the post-season in yards per game. They rattled Atlanta’s rookie QB, Matt Ryan, they picked off Carolina QB, Jake Delhomme, 5 times yesterday and now, the improbable, Arizona is hosting the NFC Championship game next weekend. Did you see this coming? I didn’t and for all of the negative things that I so erroneously pointed out about the Cardinals, I apologize.
The only other mild surprise to me was that Indy went down to San Diego last week. Riding a 9 game win streak, I thought Peyton Manning and company would handle the banged up Chargers much better and advance. The rest of the match-ups you could make a strong case for both sides. Baltimore with a rookie QB in Joe Flacco, who knew he’d be that poised? You always knew that the Ravens “D” were that good. The Steelers, when Roethlisberger throws the ball well, looks almost unbeatable. Philly’s played outstanding ball since the McNabb benching and they’re a team that’s “been there before”. Even those who have faltered in the playoffs, Miami, Minnesota, San Diego and the reigning NFL Champions New York Giants all were considered true contenders for one reason or another.
Back to my original point; the bottom line is this, for all of the dissection, for all of the scrutiny we placed upon the Packers failures this year, one thing is clear, the NFL has a fine line between very good, average and bad. The gap between the Steelers and the Lions is far more vast than the schism between the Steelers and Ravens but remember, the Dolphins were a 1-win team last year and look where they ended up this season.
The predictability of the NFL isn’t an exact science and it’s not a sure thing. If it were, the Titans and the Giants (both #1 seeds) would be playing in their respective conference championships this coming weekend. Just because we believe that something should be a certain way, doesn’t mean it’s going to unfold as our visions see fit. I guess what I’m trying to say is that my picks aren’t great because I went strictly with stats and logic and Packers fans predictions about another 13-3 season and that this year should have been a Super Bowl year, while more than desirable, should have been a little more tempered with what is reality in the NFL….nothing is a sure bet. You have to be good, you have to be healthy and, maybe more-so than you think, you have to be lucky.
Off to pick the winners of the conference championships. I’ll study the stats, the match-ups and then, maybe this week, I’ll just draw names from a hat.
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Did you happen to pay attention to who won this past Wild Card weekend?
Teams with DEFENSE won.
San Diego held Peyton Maning to 1 TD through the air and shut down Joseph Addai and company to 65 yards rushing and only 1 TD.
Arizona….who knew that they could play defense like that? Harassing Matt Ryan into a couple of costly errors and holding Michael “The Burner” Turner to 42 yards on 18 carries with a score.
Baltimore, well come on, they were relentless against Chad Pennington and the Dolphins forcing Pennington into a franchise record 4 INT’s and snuffing out the Wildcat offense.
Then there was the late Sunday battle between the Eagles and the Vikings. The Eagles pressured Tavaris Jackson all afternoon and stuffed Adrian Peterson for 83 yards on 20 carries but 40 of those yards were on a single scamper by the league’s most prolific running back. The point of all of this is you win with defense. The Giants, Panthers, Steelers and Titans all earned first round byes with their defense.
The Packers aren’t too far away from being above average on offense; it’s their defense, or lack thereof, that was their Achilles heel in 2008. With the understandable firing of Bob Sanders, their former defensive coordinator, comes a new opportunity to find someone from the outside to take a look at the talent or deficiencies with a fresh set of eyes. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still going to take a concentrated effort on GM Ted Thompson’s part to solidify the trenches for this unit to be effective. The fly in the ointment is Winston Moss, the Packers current linebackers coach. Moss has interviewed for the Rams job with no second interview scheduled. Moss was made the Assistant Head Coach, by Mike McCarthy, when McCarthy took over the Packers franchise. Would McCarthy be so loyal as to promote Moss to D-coordinator simply because he’s the next in line? It’s not that I’m anti-Moss, it’s more of a fact that there’s significant experienced talent on the open market right now, talent that brings quality credentials and could have an immediate impact for this franchise. Moss can’t bring the same claim.
UPDATE: Mike McCarthy has canned the rest of the defensive coaching staff except for Winston Moss.
This is an obvious indicator that whoever gets the coordinator’s job, will hand pick his defensive staff.
Those released are Defensive Coordinator Bob Sanders, Defensive Ends Coach Carl Hairston, Defensive Tackles Coach Robert Nunn, Secondary Coach Kurt Schottenheimer, Defensive Nickel Package/Cornerbacks Coach Lionel Washington and Strength & Conditioning Coordinator Rock Gullickson.
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Brett Favre has been taking a beating, publicly, over the last few days. Some deserved, some not. His current teammates, on the New York Jets, have relayed their thoughts regarding the sure first ballot hall of famer;
Thomas Jones, the most recent outspoken member of the Jets, spoke on HOT 97 FM in New York for himself and, according to Jones’ own words, his teammates, “At the same time, you can’t turn the ball over and expect to win. The other day, the 3 interceptions really hurt us. You don’t like it. I didn’t like it and I know everybody else on the team don’t like it but all you can do it fight (through it).”
Another Jets player stated, “There was a lot of resentment in the room about him”.
Yet another anonymous Jets player proclaimed, “He never socialized with us, never went to dinner with anyone”, Favre was also described as being “distant”.
Kerry Rhodes, right after the season ended talked about the possibility of a Favre return to the Jets, “If he’s dedicated and he wants to come back and this and do it the right way…. And be here when we’re here in training camp and the minicamps and working out with us…. Then I’m with it. But don’t come back if it’s going to be half-hearted or he doesn’t want to put the time in with us.”
Another Jet declared, “Eric (Mangini) wasn’t the reason we didn’t make the playoffs”, insinuating that Favre was the reason the Jets will be watching the NFL post-season this weekend rather than playing.
What was merely “Brett being Brett” in Green Bay is looked at as a lack of leadership and a disconnect for being a true teammate in New York. In Green Bay, Brett sat in Red Batty’s (equipment manager) office and away from his teammates in the same way he secluded himself from his Jets comrades. Brett never went to dinner, in the waning years, with any of his Packers teammates, Brett doesn’t make it a point to buy his linemen watches or presents for their performance. Brett didn’t go out of his way to be any kind of a teammate in the lockerroom. In fairness, there were the rare instances where he’d pick up a phone and call guys like Koren Robinson or someone who was in a certain type of personal crisis to show them his support. But, in the day to day workings of an NFL team, Brett was never the leader he was made out to be. Brett’s the ultimate competitor, and that’s what has made him great, but he’s not the ultimate TEAM player. There’s a difference.
Now, let me say this, I truly believe it’s wrong for his teammates to call Brett out in the media like this. Even though I am a part of the dreaded media, I believe that there are some things that should remain behind closed doors. I understand frustration and the heat of the moment but it’s been days since the Jets have faltered away their season and these comments are coming fast and furious now. It seems after one Jet opened the crevice, the rest have taken the opportunity to air their grievances as well. These are the same whispers that I’ve describe, in a less abrasive manner, to you over the last 10 months.
When so many of you tried to convince me that Brett’s presence and leadership would have made a difference in this season, these are the things that I’ve been trying to tell you. While Brett leads by example, it’s when his example isn’t positive that it doesn’t matter and can actually be a detriment. He’s not the lockerroom wizard that you believe the plaque should read on the mythic pedestal he’s been placed upon here in the state of Wisconsin. He’s a great quarterback and a sure first ballot hall of famer but he’s got an ugly side that, for years and for whatever reason, many seemed to ignore.
This doesn’t excuse the saga that we all were put through last year but it certainly sheds a light on just one of the reasons that Ted Thompson wanted to jettison the aging and unsure QB.
If you take the comments from the Jets players on their face, it certainly explains a lot; Brett’s indecision regarding retirement, the need for the saga and spotlight, the rambling Greta Van Susteren interview, Mike McCarthy’s insistence that Brett wasn’t fully “on board” with the playing for the Packers and “all in”.
I know this won’t squelch the “Favre excuse makers” but I’m sure it makes them think twice regarding their staunch position regarding #4.
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