For the last couple of weeks, football fans have speculated, discussed, quibbled, wagered and witnessed the 2008-09 NFL Playoffs. I, on the other hand, have spewed my opinions, pontificated my picks and, after the second week in a row, have had to admit that if I were a betting man I would be destitute. In week 1 of the post-season, I went 1 and 3. This past weekend, again I’m 1 and 3. To call the playoffs, in my opinion, unexpected would be putting it mildly….then again, maybe not. I’ll explain my point eventually.
The surprise team, to me, is the Arizona Cardinals. They won the NFC West, but let’s be honest, that’s clearly one of the worst divisions in football. The Cardinals limped into the post-season by allowing a total of 82 point in weeks 14 and 15 to Minnesota and New England. Their last game was a struggle at home, a 34-21 win, against a banged up and depleted Seattle Seahawks club who was simply trying to get the season over with. Arizona should have been beaten on Wild Card Weekend right?
AP Photo/Chuck Burton
Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and company have been spectacular since entering the post-season but the real muscle has come from Arizona’s defense. Ranked 19th overall in the regular season, the Cardinals defense is #2 in the post-season in yards per game. They rattled Atlanta’s rookie QB, Matt Ryan, they picked off Carolina QB, Jake Delhomme, 5 times yesterday and now, the improbable, Arizona is hosting the NFC Championship game next weekend. Did you see this coming? I didn’t and for all of the negative things that I so erroneously pointed out about the Cardinals, I apologize.
The only other mild surprise to me was that Indy went down to San Diego last week. Riding a 9 game win streak, I thought Peyton Manning and company would handle the banged up Chargers much better and advance. The rest of the match-ups you could make a strong case for both sides. Baltimore with a rookie QB in Joe Flacco, who knew he’d be that poised? You always knew that the Ravens “D” were that good. The Steelers, when Roethlisberger throws the ball well, looks almost unbeatable. Philly’s played outstanding ball since the McNabb benching and they’re a team that’s “been there before”. Even those who have faltered in the playoffs, Miami, Minnesota, San Diego and the reigning NFL Champions New York Giants all were considered true contenders for one reason or another.
Back to my original point; the bottom line is this, for all of the dissection, for all of the scrutiny we placed upon the Packers failures this year, one thing is clear, the NFL has a fine line between very good, average and bad. The gap between the Steelers and the Lions is far more vast than the schism between the Steelers and Ravens but remember, the Dolphins were a 1-win team last year and look where they ended up this season.
The predictability of the NFL isn’t an exact science and it’s not a sure thing. If it were, the Titans and the Giants (both #1 seeds) would be playing in their respective conference championships this coming weekend. Just because we believe that something should be a certain way, doesn’t mean it’s going to unfold as our visions see fit. I guess what I’m trying to say is that my picks aren’t great because I went strictly with stats and logic and Packers fans predictions about another 13-3 season and that this year should have been a Super Bowl year, while more than desirable, should have been a little more tempered with what is reality in the NFL….nothing is a sure bet. You have to be good, you have to be healthy and, maybe more-so than you think, you have to be lucky.
Off to pick the winners of the conference championships. I’ll study the stats, the match-ups and then, maybe this week, I’ll just draw names from a hat.