NFC North Race - Packers and Bears, Start Your Engines

Ruvell Martin. | Photo: Milwaukee Journal SentinelThe Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears simultaneously exit the bye week and enter the proverbial second half of the NFL season tied with 4-3 records.

They also have similar 2-0 divisional records, two losses each in the next tiebreaker of common opponents (Bears 4-2, Packers 3-2) and equal 3-3 marks in the NFC, the following tiebreaker.

Considering the strength of teams in the NFC East and South, there's not much chance a wild card would come from either squad, and it's highly doubtful the lucky-to-be 3-4 Vikings or winless Lions would challenge.

Gentlemen, start your engines...it's a nine-week match race to the playoffs.

Let's look at four factors involved in deciding which of the two teams that have owned the division the last seven years will take it this time around.

1) Winning head-to-head.

That's a no brainer. For the Packers, that's been easier said than done, especially with how well Lovie Smith-coached Chicago teams have historically pounced on Brett Favre mistakes.

This might be the one opponent where it's clear that Aaron Rodgers better serves the Packers than Brett Favre.

(Who would have ever thunk that back between 1992-2004, when Favre, to Packers fan's bliss and Bears' fans' chagrins, completely owned Chicago?)

The teams meet in Green Bay on November 16th and in Chicago on December 22nd.

If this week's results are the same for both Green Bay and Chicago, they will play for at least a share of first place on Nov. 16th.

Date Packers Bears
Nov. 2 at Tennessee Detroit
Nov. 9 at Minnesota Tennessee
Nov. 16 Chicago at Green Bay
Nov. 23-24 at New Orleans at Saint Louis
Nov. 30 Carolina at Minnesota
Dec. 7 Houston Jacksonville
Dec. 11-14 at Jacksonville New Orleans
Dec. 22 at Chicago Green Bay
Dec. 28 Detroit at Houston
2) What is different about their schedules?

Very little. In the seven remaining games that aren't head to head, only one opponent is different. In each case, the game has a differing level of scariness.

The Carolina Panthers come to town on November 30th. It could easily be argued that they're the third best team in the National Football League right now. That matchup is more than scary. That's downright mongo-frightening.

One week beforehand, the Bears go to St. Louis to face the resurgent Rams. They upset Washington and Dallas and nearly produced three straight Vegas-busting games.

Perhaps the degree of scariness in this contest could rise a bit if the Rams are fighting with Arizona for a division championship, and a Rams win over the Cards at home this weekend could come into play.

3) It's not who you play, it's when you play 'em.

In this column, four of each team's remaining shared opponents will face the Packers and Bears on opposite sides of the road-home ledger.

This weekend, the Packers have to go to Nashville to battle Tennessee.

Bears QB Kyle Orton, sacked in a 2005 Packers-Bears game. | Photo: Milwaukee Journal SentinelNext weekend, the Titans head to the Windy City. Against the NFL's only undefeated team, a home confidence boost could help the Packers and hurt Chicago.

Nov. 24 gives the Packers a date in New Orleans against the Saints, a very dangerous team, especially at home under a dome.

Two weeks later, that same Saints team has to go to the cold and potentially mucky weather of Chicago.

Dec. 7 offers the Packers a home date with the Houston Texans. The Bears are in Houston three weeks later. Neither game should be problematic.

Dec. 14 could be another Packers problem game: Jacksonville. They're on the road in that contest. It should be a win considering Jacksonville's recent problems, but don't count on that. The Bears have a better chance the week before against the Jaguars.

So three of those four matchups could lean favorably toward the Bears.

4) It's not who you play, it's where you play 'em.

That category could favor the Packers in the two matchups remaining where each team has a home game.

Both the Packers and Bears have to head to the Humpty Dump to battle the Vikings.

The Packers' contest comes Nov. 9, while the Bears go there Nov. 30.

Mike McCarthy. | Photo: Milwaukee Journal SentinelHow could timing be an advantage for Green Bay? Simply the fact that, if the FOX Sports story is true, Minnesota is likely to not have all-world defensive tackles Kevin and Pat Williams available due to a four-game substance-abuse violation.

Another reason the Vikings shouldn't figure into the NFC North race.

If the suspension goes into effect this weekend, the two of them would be back for the Bears' game on Nov. 30, the third straight road game for the Bears - which might play into Minnesota's hands.

The other common opponent in terms of site is Detroit.

The Bears host the Lions this week, while Green Bay gets them to end the year on Dec. 28.

By the time the Lions get to Green Bay, they could be 0-15 and completely confidence-less in beating a team they haven't defeated on Wisconsin soil in 17 years.

Perhaps that's not much advantage, but it could prove to be something.

So What Does All This Add Up To?

Considering the differing opponents and "when you play 'em" factors add up to four games that help Chicago and one "wash" game, and the "where you play 'em" factor helps Green Bay in only two others, it's rather problematic for Green Bay.

If both teams end up tied, the common opponent tie-breaker games would hurt Green Bay, since they're a half-game behind the Bears in that category, and they have to go on the road against Tennessee, New Orleans and Jacksonville while Chicago hosts them both.

With all that craziness digested, it means one simple thing at this point: the Packers had better sweep the Bears.

Anything less might lead to a mess in the tiebreaker category, as the upcoming schedule seems to portend a Bears' division title, and sadness in Titletown.

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