PRN Sorgi : Aaron Rodgers

Accuscore: Rodgers Will Outperform Favre, Packers Should Make Playoffs

Jay_Sorgi — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 05:49:36 GMT

A web site that forecasts sporting events says that Aaron Rodgers will again outperform the purple-clad Brett Favre, and that the Packers have better than 50-50 odds of playing in mid-January.

Accuscore.com ran 10,000 simulations of the 2009 season, and according to those simulations, the site says that this year should be a banner year for Aaron Rodgers.

The web site says he'll throw for more than 4,000 yards, 30 TD's and just 11 interceptions.

It also says he'd lead Green Bay to a 10-6 record, and that they have a 63% chance of making the playoffs.

The web site says Rodgers will have better stats than Favre in every major statistical category.

Player	Completion %	Yards	TD Passes	Interceptions	QB Rating
Aaron Rodgers	65.6%	4,022	30	11	99.9
Brett Favre	65.6%	3,192	24	16	90.9

However, it also shows that Favre will be enough of an upgrade at the quarterback position that the Vikings have the best chance to win the NFC North.

Team	Odds: Making Playoffs	Odds: Winning NFC North	Forecasted Record
Minnesota	72%	49%	10-6
Green Bay	63%	36%	10-6
Chicago	34%	15%	9-7
Detroit	<1%	<1%	4-12

The site also ran a scenario sticking Favre on the Packers and Rodgers on the Vikings.

According to the site, the Vikings' chances of winning the division would increase, while the Packers' would have less than a 50-50 shot of making the postseason.

Team	Odds: Making Playoffs	Odds: Winning NFC North	Forecasted Record
Minnesota	84%	65%	11-5
Green Bay	49%	21%	10-6
Chicago	34%	13%	8-8
Detroit	<1%	<1%	4-12

Ted Thompson's Draft Need May Be His Own

Jay_Sorgi — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 08:36:46 GMT

For years, we have heard the mantra from general manager Ted Thompson that the Packers' draft philosophy involves selecting the most favorite three-word phrase every late April: "best player available."

There are differing theories as to whether that's the best move for Green Bay to make because of the vast needs at defensive line, linebacker and offensive line, and perhaps in the secondary.

But there is one thing that may become the most important need in his mind, and it could affect how he makes his selections on Saturday:

His own employment status with the Packers.

It is absolutely true that the Packers have Thompson locked up as the team's GM for the next four seasons, including this upcoming 2009 campaign.

But if you look at the first four years, you'll see a rather mixed bag, and a not-so-successful track record if you believe Bill Parcells' adage that you are what your record says you are:

• 2005: 4-12
• 2006: 8-8
• 2007: 13-3
• 2008: 6-10
• Total: 31-33

In some people's minds (including the Packers' brass?), two games under .500 isn't good enough, especially in a city with the nickname of Titletown and a tradition that demands more titles under the Packers' banner.

And that could reflect on the potentially tenuous nature of his job status should his team fail to make the playoffs this year.

Certainly, the 2005 record doesn't necessarily stand as something that is his fault.

Mike Sherman proved that as a general manager, he was a good coach and nothing else, and he left the cupboard bare, one that no NFL general manager probably could have filled quickly enough for one season.

Thompson has certainly made some solid moves, but they balance the scales with highly questionable picks.

For every Aaron Rodgers, there's a Justin Harrell.

For every Charles Woodson signed, there's all the potential free agents that weren't which could improve the Packers.

(Not the high-priced ones, mind you, but the smart mid-range selections teams like the Patriots and Steelers have made successfully over the decade.)

He also traded away a first round-pick to the Jets and received a second-rounder to select a player at the position where the Packers are perhaps strongest in the NFL, at wide receiver, instead of picking a defensive player at a need spot.

Now, his team's defensive cupboard is nearly as bare as it was back in 2005.

Besides the obvious problems at defensive line and the adjustments of changing to a 3-4 defense, he also has to take care of some age, and potentially lost steps at cornerback with Al Harris (thanks to his spleen injury, which truly isn't his fault), along with other players' inconsistency at defensive back.

He has just as many questions at running back as he had at that time, thanks to a subpar sophomore performance by Ryan Grant.

Note: to all the Thompson haters because of the whole Brett Favre divorce saga, I don't choose to involve that in this discussion, because this is purely about how his teams have performed based on his personnel moves.

If you look at the stats, Rodgers far-outperformed Favre last year, and should shoulder the smallest blame for the 6-10 campaign.

Still, with all that is there and not there on the roster right now, Thompson has an arduous task ahead of him this draft, with so many holes to fill.

I may be a rather patient person, and barring a total collapse, I would probably give him one more shot after 2009.

Many of you, including the higher-ups in Green Bay, might not.

He may need immediate performance out of rookies (and a new defensive system) to keep this team above the NFL Mendoza Line of 8-8.

That's a rare accomplishment to pull off.

Do it, and the genius tag gets stuck on him in super glue.

Fail to improve this year, and the vultures may grab him with claws stronger than super glue to fly him away from 1265 Lombardi Avenue.

And it's all based on the Parcells mantra: you are what your record says you are.

To avoid being a loser, Thompson will have to win a draft based on need: his own.

Tiebreakers, Hidden Diuretic Could Lead To Packers NFC North Title

Jay_Sorgi — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 11:03:30 GMT

The Green Bay Packers may find themselves playing in January, and the proverbial hyde of General Manager Ted Thompson may be saved from those fans who are angry about the Brett Favre saga, all because of two factors.

One is familiar: the lovely NFL tiebreaker system that boggles nuclear physicists' minds.

The other is a word most people have never heard of: Bumetanide.

In fact, Kevin and Pat Williams, the now-suspended Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles, may never have heard of the diuretic, because apparently the item wasn't listed in the ingredients in an over-the-counter weight-loss pill called StarCaps which the NFL says they used.

The league suspended them for the final four games of the regular season, pending a legal appeal.

According to the Mayo Clinic: "Bumetanide is given to help treat fluid retention (edema) and swelling that is caused by congestive heart failure, liver disease, kidney disease, or other medical conditions. It works by acting on the kidneys to increase the flow of urine."

Amazingly, the item meant to decrease the weights of Minnesota's giant defensive tackles may have decreased Minnesota's abilities to win the NFC North, because the middle of their defense now has "able to gash" written all over it.

And the Packers (5-7) are in ripe position to reap the benefits.

If they win their final four games - all against teams .500 or worse - and the Vikings (7-5) lose two of their last four, the Packers are guaranteed the NFC North championship.

Williams-less Vikings Mainly Face Winning Gauntlet

Expecting a division leader to go 2-2 in their last four games isn't typically a formula that hopeful teams expect to follow, but in Minnesota's case, it could be highly realistic.

The Vikings' final three games are at Arizona and at home against Atlanta and the New York Giants.

They are a combined 26-10.

The Cardinals (7-5) aren't known for running between the tackles, but the lack of pass rush in the middle and more double-teams on Jared Allen mean a great chance of explosions coming from Kurt Warner's right arm.

The Falcons (8-4) have powerful runner Michael Turner and his gaudy stats (1,208 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns) to suddenly flow through a previously muscle-clogged middle.

And considering the Giants (11-1) have their own now-lessened arsenal with legal-troubled wide receiver Plaxico Burress suspended for the season, they may have more to play for at the end of the season, and they'll be more prone to run the ball with the triplicate of runners including Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw.

Schedule Becomes Packers' Friend in December

Meanwhile, the Packers road is incredibly easier.

Like the Vikings this Sunday, the Packers face the Lions in their season ender, a contest where the Lions could be playing to avoid going 0-16, but would probably fail.

Before then is Sunday's contest with nearly perennial second-division resident Houston and a Jacksonville Jaguars team that might be the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year.

Then, of course, is that showdown in Chitown with the Bad News Bears that stand one game below the Vikings and one game ahead of Green Bay.

If the Packers beat them, the best the Bears can do is match Green Bay's best possible 9-7 mark.

Tiebreakers

Should all this happen, three tiebreaker scenarios could come into play:

Green Bay and Chicago both go 9-7:
The Packers win the tiebreaker based on head-to-head (2-0).

Green Bay and Minnesota both go 9-7:
The Packers win the tiebreaker based on divisional record (Green Bay 5-1, Minnesota 4-2 or 3-3).

Green Bay, Chicago and Minnesota all go 9-7:
The Packers win the tiebreaker based on divisional record (Green Bay 5-1, Minnesota 4-2 or 3-3, Chicago 3-3).

So Aaron Rodgers and company may have new hope to break past all the contentiousness of one of the craziest seasons in Packers history and earn their second consecutive division title.

All due to the crazy NFL tiebreaking computer and a relatively unknown diuretic.

Packers-Bears: What I Think

Jay_Sorgi — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 09:51:20 GMT

It's the most important game the Packers and Bears have played in mid-season since 1995.

A win and a Minnesota loss to Tampa Bay on the road (very probable) makes a three-way tie for the NFC North lead.

A loss might doom the Packers in the 2008 playoff race.

Who'll come through in this critical home showdown?

The answer comes through these things to look for:

When the Packers have the ball: Make Chicago's defense have to play close to the line.
The Bears' defensive backs have had trouble in pass defense in recent weeks, and they're facing perhaps the deepest receiving corps in the NFL.

The Packers offensive line has to step up and force Chicago to use its linebackers and safeties to stop the run and rush Aaron Rodgers (in other words, have the O-line actually show up, unlike last week).

If they do, that means single coverage on Packers wideouts, which means carved Bears and big plays.

When the Bears have the ball: Tie up Olin Kreutz and company.
When defensive tackles do their job and make interior offensive linemen double-team them, linebackers can roam free. This week is especially key for the D-tackles to help a makeshift linebacking corps without Nick Barnett.

It's especially challenging this week with all-galaxy center Olin Kreutz and the productive rookie Matt Forte pounding the ball.

Who wins and why? Green Bay 27, Chicago 24
The quick three-step rhythm passing game of Rodgers will be in prime shape, since the Packers will have just a smidgen more time to throw versus the semi-monstrous Midway-ers than they had against the second-coming of the Purple People Eaters.

By the way, if they win this game and the rematch on Dec. 22, they'll win the NFC North. Don't, and they're cooked like a Chicago-style hot dog. (No ketchup, please.)

Packers-Vikings: What I Think

Jay_Sorgi — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 12:13:17 GMT

It's a 48-year-old rivalry, Packers-Vikings.

It's the youngest rivalry the Packers have in the NFC North.

But to the players, it's the most blood-thirsty.

The darn Vikings horn, the bearded guy who looks like a Wagnerian opera star as a mascot, and the insanely loud noise in the dome - they all annoy Packers players like crazy.

TThe Packers, though, have had their way this decade in the Humpty Dump.

Will they continue that reign of terror on the Purple Norsemen?

Or will Adrian Peterson and company put the Packers in a potential two-game hole in the NFC North?

Here are the keys:

When the Packers have the ball: The slant.
I must have some sort of fixation on the slant pattern, but historically, it seems that once a year when the Packers go to the Humpty Dump, they get a 60+ yard touchdown pass on a slant pattern. The Vikings simply cannot guard it for 60 minutes. If the Packers make Minnesota's DB's respect Ryan Grant on the ground, watch Driver and/or Jennings break one.

When the Vikings have the ball: The Packers will win a 10-on-10 game, not 10-on-9.
Green Bay has got to be able to successfully guard Bernard Berrian one-on-one. Do that, and you can put eight in the box on Adrian Peterson and stuff him like the Thanksgiving turkey coming later this month. Fail, and you turn defensively into a turkey.

Who wins and why? Green Bay 31, Minnesota 21.
Don't be surprised if Adrian Peterson goes off for 200 yards and two scores. Don't be surprised, though, if Aaron Rodgers goes off for 300 yards and four scores.