PRN Sorgi : Brett Favre

Accuscore: Rodgers Will Outperform Favre, Packers Should Make Playoffs

Jay_Sorgi — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 05:49:36 GMT

A web site that forecasts sporting events says that Aaron Rodgers will again outperform the purple-clad Brett Favre, and that the Packers have better than 50-50 odds of playing in mid-January.

Accuscore.com ran 10,000 simulations of the 2009 season, and according to those simulations, the site says that this year should be a banner year for Aaron Rodgers.

The web site says he'll throw for more than 4,000 yards, 30 TD's and just 11 interceptions.

It also says he'd lead Green Bay to a 10-6 record, and that they have a 63% chance of making the playoffs.

The web site says Rodgers will have better stats than Favre in every major statistical category.

Player	Completion %	Yards	TD Passes	Interceptions	QB Rating
Aaron Rodgers	65.6%	4,022	30	11	99.9
Brett Favre	65.6%	3,192	24	16	90.9

However, it also shows that Favre will be enough of an upgrade at the quarterback position that the Vikings have the best chance to win the NFC North.

Team	Odds: Making Playoffs	Odds: Winning NFC North	Forecasted Record
Minnesota	72%	49%	10-6
Green Bay	63%	36%	10-6
Chicago	34%	15%	9-7
Detroit	<1%	<1%	4-12

The site also ran a scenario sticking Favre on the Packers and Rodgers on the Vikings.

According to the site, the Vikings' chances of winning the division would increase, while the Packers' would have less than a 50-50 shot of making the postseason.

Team	Odds: Making Playoffs	Odds: Winning NFC North	Forecasted Record
Minnesota	84%	65%	11-5
Green Bay	49%	21%	10-6
Chicago	34%	13%	8-8
Detroit	<1%	<1%	4-12

Watch These Days for Favre Itch-Scratching

Jay_Sorgi — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 04:56:58 GMT

Over the last two years, since Brett Favre's first retirement with the Green Bay Packers, more conspiracy theories have seemingly come out of the woodwork than the ones connected to the assassination of President Kennedy.

With the words of Scott Favre to TODAY'S TMJ4 HD's Lance Allan, and those of Favre himself to NFL Network's Steve Mariucci, there are many more that are chomping through the woodwork like termites.

Seeing those things, it certainly brings about the idea that this Favre saga isn't over, and the itch will return.

Steve Young, an NFL Hall of Famer (like Favre will be in a few years), explained on ESPN that on Sundays, Favre will feel so much pain for leaving the game he loves, but that there are many other things in life that he can now enjoy.

But will he want to enjoy Deanna, his kids, his tractor and the other things, or will that itch be too much not to scratch?

Watch these dates for a potential itch to come:

1) Monday, August 31st

That's the Monday before the last preseason game. If Favre is simply bluffing and really does want to play - and thinks he can play - with the Vikings for a full season, he probably will think he wants one week to get into the Vikings system that he knows so well.

In other words, he wants to play, but doesn't want the grind of training camp.

2) Monday, September 28th

That's when the Minnesota Vikings could come off a 1-2 record after losses on the road at Cleveland and San Francisco, seeing the quarterback quandary they have with Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels, and Brad Childress makes a call to Favre begging for his help.

Brett probably wouldn't have to say much, considering the next opponent on the schedule: the Packers.

Cue that jet to the Twin Cities from Hattiesburg.

3) The day Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Donovan McNabb get injured and have to sit out for more than just a week or two.

Those quarterbacks all belong to teams Favre would jump at playing for. New England, Indianapolis and Philadelphia are perennial playoff teams with quarterbacks who would probably keep their starting job, even with Favre on the roster.

New Orleans? Perhaps not Super Bowl worthy, but you know Favre would love to at least consider having perhaps the most potent offense in the NFL with Reggie Bush, Marques Colston and Lance Moore at his disposal - with a short commute home anytime he wants.

4) The day NFL playoff rosters must be finalized.

If you don't see Favre on an NFL roster by that point, he truly will be done with his career...unless he decides to pull a Steve DeBerg and play five years after his first retirement.

We all know Favre has the will to do such a thing, and I'd put nothing past him.

Considering that, it may be a few years before we really can put the tractor watch in the garage for good, because as countless NFL defenders, prognosticators, pundits and frustrated fans will admit, you never know what Brett Favre will do.

That's what makes Brett Favre so fascinating and will keep our attention far beyond this third decision of retirement.

He Didn't Say It, But Brett Still Wants To "Stick It"

Jay_Sorgi — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 05:24:00 GMT

During his interview on HBO's "Joe Buck Live," Brett Favre made a seven-word statement that, when taken in the context of his comments around them, makes perfect sense.

"I play because I love to play."

He was discussing how, as he put it, he's not motivated to consider coming back in the 2009 season by the things that surround the game.

But I guarantee you, the "where he's playing," the Minnesota Vikings - the only team he's considering playing for, the one he referred to as "we" in this talk with Buck - is not because he loves to play.

I am still convinced it's because he wants revenge on Packers General Manager Ted Thompson.

Did he come out and say on Joe Buck's show that he wants two shots at the Packers so he can get back at Ted Thompson for what he perceives Thompson did to him?

No.

That already came out of his mouth in his statements to ESPN when he discussed how playing last year was all about "sticking it to Ted (Thompson, Packers General Manager)."

He tried on Buck's show to explain away his thoughts about why it's the Vikings because of his familiarity of the system the Vikings run - thanks to their offensive coordinator, former Packers quarterback coach Darrell Bevell.

"It makes perfect sense, because it is an offense that I ran for 16 years," said Favre to Buck.

"I could teach the offense. Going to the Jets was tough since I was 2 weeks late and it was a completely new offense. The coaches were great to me because the condensed the offense so I can at least call the plays. It is like learning a different language."

Does it make sense that going back to the Vikings would be easiest for him and can bring him more possibilities of success because of the familiarity of the system?

Sure.

But I'm still not convinced that's his reason, that's his motivation, for choosing the Minnesota Vikings.

"Some things happened there that may have ruffled the feathers for both sides," he admitted on Buck.

We all know the reasons why those ruffles are there, and why Favre couldn't stomach having to eat those ruffles.

Hence, that's why I believe he still wants to put a purple and gold crunch on the Packers by playing in the NFC North.

Amazingly, he attempted to spin the story by using the example of a legendary Packers coach who, 40 years ago, unretired from coaching.

"Vince Lombardi left Green Bay to go to the Washington Redskins, and his name is on the trophy that we give out every year."

Why did he go to the Washington Redskins, Brett? Was it revenge? Was it "sticking it to" the Packers?

Not at all.

Lombardi left because he, as general manager, had hired Phil Bengston to be his head coach in 1968, and he refused to do what Pat Riley did to Stan Van Gundy and the Miami Heat by demoting him so he could win a championship as head coach again once the coaching bug returned.

The Packers were not on the 1969 Redskins schedule, nor was Washington located in the NFC Central Division in 1969.

The Packers are twice on the 2009 Vikings schedule, and every Minnesota win makes it harder for Ted Thompson's team to return to the playoffs in a year where not doing so could cost him his job.

That, I'm sure, would make Brett Favre smile. Certainly, it would make a number of Packers fans who side with Favre be filled with glee.

But is it right for him to act out of revenge? As I said in a previous analysis: no way.

Did he come out and say directly to Joe Buck that he wants to play for the Vikings because he wants to "stick it to Ted?"

No.

But I'm still convinced it's why.

Ted Thompson's Draft Need May Be His Own

Jay_Sorgi — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 08:36:46 GMT

For years, we have heard the mantra from general manager Ted Thompson that the Packers' draft philosophy involves selecting the most favorite three-word phrase every late April: "best player available."

There are differing theories as to whether that's the best move for Green Bay to make because of the vast needs at defensive line, linebacker and offensive line, and perhaps in the secondary.

But there is one thing that may become the most important need in his mind, and it could affect how he makes his selections on Saturday:

His own employment status with the Packers.

It is absolutely true that the Packers have Thompson locked up as the team's GM for the next four seasons, including this upcoming 2009 campaign.

But if you look at the first four years, you'll see a rather mixed bag, and a not-so-successful track record if you believe Bill Parcells' adage that you are what your record says you are:

• 2005: 4-12
• 2006: 8-8
• 2007: 13-3
• 2008: 6-10
• Total: 31-33

In some people's minds (including the Packers' brass?), two games under .500 isn't good enough, especially in a city with the nickname of Titletown and a tradition that demands more titles under the Packers' banner.

And that could reflect on the potentially tenuous nature of his job status should his team fail to make the playoffs this year.

Certainly, the 2005 record doesn't necessarily stand as something that is his fault.

Mike Sherman proved that as a general manager, he was a good coach and nothing else, and he left the cupboard bare, one that no NFL general manager probably could have filled quickly enough for one season.

Thompson has certainly made some solid moves, but they balance the scales with highly questionable picks.

For every Aaron Rodgers, there's a Justin Harrell.

For every Charles Woodson signed, there's all the potential free agents that weren't which could improve the Packers.

(Not the high-priced ones, mind you, but the smart mid-range selections teams like the Patriots and Steelers have made successfully over the decade.)

He also traded away a first round-pick to the Jets and received a second-rounder to select a player at the position where the Packers are perhaps strongest in the NFL, at wide receiver, instead of picking a defensive player at a need spot.

Now, his team's defensive cupboard is nearly as bare as it was back in 2005.

Besides the obvious problems at defensive line and the adjustments of changing to a 3-4 defense, he also has to take care of some age, and potentially lost steps at cornerback with Al Harris (thanks to his spleen injury, which truly isn't his fault), along with other players' inconsistency at defensive back.

He has just as many questions at running back as he had at that time, thanks to a subpar sophomore performance by Ryan Grant.

Note: to all the Thompson haters because of the whole Brett Favre divorce saga, I don't choose to involve that in this discussion, because this is purely about how his teams have performed based on his personnel moves.

If you look at the stats, Rodgers far-outperformed Favre last year, and should shoulder the smallest blame for the 6-10 campaign.

Still, with all that is there and not there on the roster right now, Thompson has an arduous task ahead of him this draft, with so many holes to fill.

I may be a rather patient person, and barring a total collapse, I would probably give him one more shot after 2009.

Many of you, including the higher-ups in Green Bay, might not.

He may need immediate performance out of rookies (and a new defensive system) to keep this team above the NFL Mendoza Line of 8-8.

That's a rare accomplishment to pull off.

Do it, and the genius tag gets stuck on him in super glue.

Fail to improve this year, and the vultures may grab him with claws stronger than super glue to fly him away from 1265 Lombardi Avenue.

And it's all based on the Parcells mantra: you are what your record says you are.

To avoid being a loser, Thompson will have to win a draft based on need: his own.

Favre At Lambeau in GB Preseason?

Jay_Sorgi — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 11:31:00 GMT

The Green Bay Packers will play a Super Bowl team from 2008 and the AFC's '08 number one playoff seed as part of its 2009 preseason schedule, but perhaps the spotlight game may come when the Cleveland Browns come to town.

Week one of the Packers' preseason will bring the Cleveland Browns to Lambeau Field in the Midwest Shrine game, to be played anywhere between Thursday, August 13th and Monday, August 17th.

A report from the New York Daily News said that Favre was invited to assist in Browns training camp, which would mean that if the report is correct, and knowing his past, unpredictable offseason history, there is a chance number four may find his way to Lambeau Field for the Packers' first preseason game, though it's unknown in what capacity.

Doesn't this just sound like an ex-girlfriend showing up at her former boyfriend's party just to make him uncomfortable?

Click here for the rest of the story, including the other three Packers' 2009 preseason opponents which include a Super Bowl team from '08.