The Packers coming off that stirring 17 to 7 victory over Dallas are hoping (figuring) that last Sunday was the turning point of their season.   I personally believe it was, but the proof will be in these next two games San Francisco Sunday and Detroit on Thanksgiving day.  Three games in 12 days will go a long way in determining if the Packers are playoff capable.

In film study of the 49ers I see a team that is playing at an extremely intense level--like their coach, hall of fame linebacker Mike Singletary played.
I see a rugged defensive front that will be extremely hard to run on, they give up just  3.3 rushing yards per attempt by their opponents.  Their front three is salty, their linebackers rugged-Patrick Willis is the best inside linebacker I have seen all season.  They are well suited to take on the Packers style of running the football.  This will be trench warfare!

Where the Niners have been burned is in the secondary where they are allowing over 245 yards passing  and 7.0 yards per pass attempt.  These numbers are a bit inflated because they are so good against the run and because their all pro caliber cornerback Nate Clements is out due to  a shoulder injury.  There is no question this defense will make it difficult on Aaron Rodgers, who really wants to play well against a team he followed as a kid, and the quarterback, Alex Smith, who was drafted number one by San Francisco ahead of him.

Offensively the Packers have faced better running backs than Frank Gore but trust me--not much better!  Despite his size 5-9, 217 , he is a physical inside runner and is extremely dangerous when they get him out in space off screens.

Alex Smith has had 2 shoulder surgeries, and five offensive coordinators since being taken number one in the 2005 draft.  He shows flashes but I believe he might be the number one reason why they have not been able to get on track offensively.  The line is not great and the receiving corps appears to be somewhat in transition with the exception of Vernon Davis.  Davis is the next great talent in this league at tight end.  He is a complete tight end as well he will block and hold the edge in the running game.

Special teams feature two very good kickers in  veteran field goal kicker Joe Nedney and punter Andy Lee--their return game is struggling a bit but they do a good job of covering.

The Packers despite their great effort against Dallas will face a San Francisco team that is fully capable of dragging them into the mud in rugby type fashion.  If you love tough, rugged, physical football then Lambeau Field is the place to be this Sunday as both teams continue to play for their playoff lives.

This one really hurt! Losing to Minnesota twice in a month put the Packers season on a different level than we all expected. Losing to winless Tampa Bay at midseason, unfortunately,appears to have set the season back to another level. I will say this, every team in the league loses at least one game they flat out, at the end of the season look back on and say--we should have beaten them. I think yesterday in Tampa that was that type of game for the Packers. As tough as this is to say, the Vikings and even the Bengals are two of the better teams in the league. But winless Tampa Bay obviously was not. That's what makes this loss so hard to swallow. I was concerned about the psyche of the Packers coming off two losses in a month to their archrivals from Minneapolis. But I did not think they came out flat--they scored on their first possession, how often does that happen? They led this game into the fourth quarter --by eleven points early in the fourth. Outside of a blown assignment on a blocked punt returned for a touchdown in the second quarter the Packers seemed to be in control. But I believe the game began to turn with missed opportunities in the second quarter. The Packers started back to back drives in Tampa Bay territory and failed to score. This is like in baseball where your team leaves men on base early in the game, you might be leading in the fifth inning by a run but it should be more. In football when you start a drive in your opponent's territory you are being presented with points--if you don't take them often that comes back to haunt you. In the second half, after grabbing an eleven point lead, the inconsistency of special teams kicking and coverage, a season long malady, came into play. Mason Crosby's kickoff intended for the left corner went straight down the middle. Tampa return man Clifton Smith, NFC All Pro special teams return man, returned the kick 83 yards setting up a short 17 yard TD drive and the Bucs were right back in the game. Remember how Percy Harvin's kickoff return the week before took momentum away from the Packers in the Minnesota game? This was a similar turn. A J Hawk's outstanding interception on Tampa's next possession, would have turned momentum back to the Packers, but it was nullified by a penalty on Hawk for illegal contact. There were only five penalties accepted against the Packers yesterday, a low total for them, but that one and on the Packers next offensive possession a holding penalty against Darryn Colledge on a thrid down scramble by Aaron Rodgers for a first down were crushing! Three areas the Packers have struggled to overcome all season, penalties, special teams coverage and sacks all came to roost at the worst of times yesterday. As for sacks, the Packers are not only giving up sacks at a record pace but they are not generating much pressure from their defense. The sack differential (sacks against and sacks by) is minus 24! Trust me folks, the coaching staff has tried feverishly to clean these problem areas up, as much as I like the mix of people in that locker room, unfortunately at this stage of the season one has to wonder if those problems are fixable with this group of players. I hope they are...

The Vikings and Brett Favre had their way at Lambeau yesterday but not without a fight. The third quarter comeback from 24-3 down to 24-20 was tremendous! But against a team as talented as Minnesota obviously you have to be almost perfect to make it all the way back. Percy Harvin's 48 yard kickoff return, off what was supposed to be another squib kick but turned out to be just a 56 yard pop fly off the toe of Mason Crosby, turned the momentum back to the Vikings and like the good team they are they turned that field position, Green Bay 38 yard line, into a touchdown. That built their advantage back to double digits. I give the Packers a lot of credit , they kept coming back scoring on their next drive with Rogers finding Jennings on a 10 yard TD pass. They stopped the Vikings on the next Minnesota posession then Crosby's 51 yard field goal attempt was wide right and the Vikings made short work on a 59 yard touchdown drive to put the game away. As good as Brett Favre played, I really think Percy Harvin was the big difference in this one. He averaged 35 yards per kickoff return, had 5 receptions for 84 yards including a 51 yard TD catch. He was the number one target Brett looked for on 3rd down. And he's a rookie! How he fell to 22nd in the draft is amazing. Post game, most distressing was DE Cullen Jenkins questioning of Dom Capers defensive system. I guess it demonstrates what most of us knew all along, the move to the 3-4 defense is not a quick fix. It will take another year or two before the Packers have the right personnel on the field to play this effectively in a game of this magnitude. (not saying Cullen can't play this defense) Right now there are some frustrated players on this Packers squad and that is understandable. One other point from yesterday, was it me or was Aaron Rodgers perhaps a bit too keyed up in the first half? Larry McCarren made that point out in our broadcast and for the first time I think the big stage or moment may have gotten to him. He and the offense rebounded well in the second half which in my opinion shows both ability level and character. They can play with this Vikings team. This is a good locker room. These guys care and will fight. Right now they are disappointed, yesterday was an opportunity to step to the Vikings level among the elite teams in the NFC and they came up short.

The numbers came out the other day and the Packers defense coming off two impressive victories (yes I know Detroit and Cleveland are what they are) rank 3rd overall in yardage 12th against the run and 5th in rushing yards allowed per play! They are also 5th in fewest points allowed and first in interception percentage. Now that's defense! No doubt Dom Capers and his staff have done a tremendous job installing the 3-4 defense in Green Bay but, remember, the teams the Packers have beaten are a combined 5 and 21, the two teams the Packers have lost to are a combined 11-3.

What the first 6 games of the season have graphically displayed is this: the Packers are not one of the bad teams in this league. Are they one of the good teams or are they somewhere in the middle? That is what Sunday in Lambeau Field is really about. The Minnesota Vikings are one of the top teams in the league (it still pains me to say that). They are right there with New Orleans (well I'm not sure anyone is on that level right now), Indianapolis, New England, the Giants, and Pittsburgh. I do not consider Denver in this group---they would have to go 10-0 before I would start to think they are really any good at all! Cincy, Philly, Arizona, Dallas, and the Packers along with four or five other teams make up a rather large second tier looking to move up.

The league is filled with horrible teams like Cleveland, Detroit, St Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington (dysfunctional), K.C., Tennessee, and Oakland. I have never seen a season like this in the NFL where there are so many bad teams and the difference between the good teams and bad is about 57 to 3 over two weeks--the score the Packers won by in trouncing the Lions and Browns. I am not minimizing the impact of Brett Favre coming back to Lambeau--that's why everyone will be watching this game. But in a bigger picture sense for Green Bay, it is really about the Packers, do they stack up with one of the top teams in the league?

A win by Green Bay Sunday over the Vikings moves the Packers on another level.

It is a grey rainy day here in East Lansing. I have the Iowa-Michigan State game here tonight. This is classic Big Ten weather and it should be a classic Big Ten battle on the Big Ten Network tonight 7 eastern. I will always have a soft spot for the Iowa program. My first job out of college was broadcasting the Hawkeyes for KSTT radio in Davenport Iowa. It was a great experience and led to a job broadcasting Kansas City Chiefs, then Chicago Bears and now Green Bay Packers. This game tonight matches two teams that are a lot closer than their overall records would indicate Iowa 7-0 MSU 4-3. The Hawks have won three of their games by a combined total of 6 points. The Spartans have lost their three games by a combined 13 points. Mark Dantonio is building a program here in East Lansing that is not unlike what Kirk Ferentz has built in Iowa City. These are two programs that grow their stars, stars don't come to them--I mean that in the most positive way possible. You don't hear about five star recruits going to Iowa but here tonight Iowa's defense alone will feature at least four players who will play on the next level. Defensive end Adrian Clayborn, middle linebacker Pat Angerer, safety Tyler Sash and cornerback Amari Spievey. Michigan State's Blair White has emerged from walk on to star receiver, perhaps the second best in the Big Ten. They have a couple of true freshmen running backs who will carry the mail tonight in Larry Caper and Edwin Baker and the top pass efficiency quarterback in the conference in Kirk Cousins. There are so many good stories in and around these programs, suffice to say these are two of my favorite programs in all of college football! This is just the 8th night game in the history of Spartan Stadium and it should be a good one. Just a feel, I think MSU might nip the Hawkeyes again, just as they did a year ago. PACKERS TOMORROW Look out for the Wildcat formation tomorrow as the Packers battle the Cleveland Browns on the lakefront in Cleveland. Josh Cribbs is one of the most versatile players I have ever seen on the NFL level and as defensive coordinator Dom Capers told me every personnel group of his defense will have to be ready for it. There is no way of matching sub packages to the "Wildcat" because often times they shift into it at the line of scrimmage. If the Packers don't run the football effectively against this Cleveland defense (allowing 165 yds rushing per game) they may never run the ball effectively this season! Not sure what to expect from the Browns because they have been hit hard by the flu. I do know this, the Packers need to go into the Vikings game next week 4-2 period--so wildcat or not this is one of those games regardless of how they get it, the Packers must have this one.