It is getting to be the time of year that relationships between
players and managements can become a bit strained. The 10-day salary
arbitration filing period began on Monday and the Brewers have six
players that are expected to file.
Pitchers Dave Bush and Seth McClung
will be joined by young guns Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, Corey Hart and
Rickie Weeks. It will be the first time that Fielder, Hart and Weeks
are arbitration eligible.
The Brewers current team
salaries total just over $50 million at the moment. It is expected that
the Brewers will start the season with a total payroll of around $80
million, or about the same payroll as Opening Day 2008.
It is
obvious that Prince Fielder is set for the biggest pay raise but let's
take a look at all the players' situations and how each will impact the
Brewers in 2009.
Dave Bush had an up-and-down season for
Milwaukee in 2008. He finished with a 9-10 record and a 4.18 ERA in 29
starts. Bush was sent down to Triple A Nashville for a short time but
finished strong and won Game 3 for the Brewers in the Playoffs against
the Phillies. Bush made just over $2.5 million last year and should get
a nice raise. I expect him to get between $4-5 million to be a middle
of the rotation pitcher for the Brewers.
Seth McClung
could turn out to be a huge bargain for the Brewers. He finished with a
6-6 record, making 12 starts and pitching big in September out of the
bullpen. McClung could
very well be the closer for the Brewers in 2009. He has a dominant
fastball and an attitude to challenge any hitter in baseball. McClung made only $750 thousand last season and should be had for right around $2-3 million this season.
JJ
Hardy is entering his second year of arbitration and is quickly
becoming one of the best shortstops in the game. Hardy is a career .270
hitter and has 50 home runs over the last two years. He's also one of
the best defensive shortstops in the game. Hardy avoided an arbitration
hearing last year and signed for $2.65 million for 2008. He should come
close to doubly that for 2009. I think a salary around $6 million for
Hardy in 2009 would be just about right.
Rickie Weeks was
signed to a Major League contract out of college and now enters
arbitration for the first time. Weeks has had a horrible batting
average the last two years, never hitting higher than .235. He has
improved his defense but is still no where close to being a Gold Glove
second baseman. Weeks will draw a ton of walks and score runs when he
gets on base. Weeks made just over one million last year and I can't
see him getting a huge raise. I think the Brewers get him for no more
than $2.5 million for 2009.
Corey Hart may become an ugly case
for Brewers' General Manager, Doug Melvin. Hart was voted to his first
All-Star game in 2008, but literally did not do anything in the second
half of the season. His batting average fell 27 points in 2008 from the
.295 he hit in 2007. Hart also hit four less home runs, walked less and
had dramatic drop offs in his on-base and slugging percentages. Hart
made less than $500 thousand last year. His horrendous second half of
2008 will no doubt affect his salary in 2009. I think Hart could make
anywhere between $3-5 million this season.
Prince Fielder has awaited this offseason
since he was drafted by the Brewers in 2002. There is no doubt that
Prince is going to make a boatload of money this winter. Fielder made
$670 thousand last season and will make 10 times that in 2009 easily.
Prince has 114 career home runs, including 50 in 2007 in which he
became the youngest player ever to hit 50 home runs. Fielder is a .278
career hitter. He is a bad first baseman and that's being kind. I don't
think he will equal or surpass Ryan Howard's arbitration number of $10
million. Howard had a better batting average, more home runs, walks,
and RBIs. Howard also won Rookie of the Year and an MVP award while
Fielder won neither. Prince should command a salary anywhere between
$6-9 million for 2009. This may turn out to be the last full season for
Prince in Milwaukee.
With raises for those six players,
the Brewers are looking at adding anywhere between $23-31 million in
payroll. That would bump the payroll up above $73 million but no higher
than $81 million. If the number comes out on the low end, the Brewers
will have close to $10 million to play with for free agents. If all the
players "max-out" then the Brewers won't have much room at all to add
salaries.
Although Doug Melvin said that Mike Cameron being dealt to the Yankees is dead, Brian Cashman is only a phone call away to get Cam to New York and give the Brewers more flexibility.
Melvin reportedly has interest in both Braden Looper
and Mark Mulder. Each could be had relatively cheap. The Brewers would
still be able to field a competitive team to compete in the NL Central. If the Brewers can do that, then owner Mark Attanasio and Melvin could make a move in June or July to bring in more talent for the stretch run.