Now that Jake Peavy has vetoed a trade to the Chicago White Sox,
speculation will start to build of Peavy's final destination. I want
the Brewers to make the playoffs as much as any fan, but not if that
means doing whatever it takes to get Jake Peavy.
The Brewers made
a once-in-a-lifetime trade last year when they traded for CC Sabathia.
They gave up two top ten prospects for a four-month rental of Sabathia.
Peavy's contract currently runs through 2012 with a club option
for 2013. To get what they feel fair value in return, the Brewers would
likely have to give up at least three top ten prospects and likely
another mid-level one as well.
Some Brewer fans seem to think
that some combination of Bill Hall, Dave Bush or Braden Looper, and a
prospect will be enough. These people know nothing about baseball. Bill
Hall has zero value for the Padres.
Why would the Padres take
on Hall's contract when the whole idea of trading Peavy is to cut
payroll? They would not take our "junk" for one of the prized pitchers
on the trade market. It isn't a smart baseball move for the Padres.
They want prospects and very good ones.
Do the Brewers have
enough prospects to entice the Padres? Absolutely. The have both
pitching and hitting prospects that are expected to make an impact at
the Major League level.
Management can't be as short-sighted as
fans however. While Peavy would be a boost to the pitching staff, the
cost in prospects would cripple the ability to compete in the future.
The Brewers have five picks in the first 75 of this year's draft, but
without Jack Zduriencik running things, there is no guarantee to
continue past draft success.
Fans also need to keep in mind that
there are players currently on the roster that may not be here in a few
years. Does anyone honestly think Prince Fielder will remain on the
team once he reaches free agency? Mike Cameron is a free agent after
this season as well. JJ Hardy, Rickie Weeks, and Corey Hart all have
the chance to leave in the next couple years as well.
That is
the majority of this team's offense gone, and the Brewers don't have
that much depth in the minors to cover the loss of every one of those
players.
Jake Peavy is also a much different pitcher away from
Petco Park in San Diego. While he has a winning record both at home and
on the road, his ERA is a full run higher on the road. He strikes out
over one fewer batters per nine innings, and he has given up 33 more
home runs on the road in over 106 fewer innings throughout his career.
Peavy's
contract is also a major reason not to make the trade. As I said
earlier, his current deal runs through 2012 with an option for 2013.
Starting next year, Peavy will earn an average of $16 million a year
through the end of that deal. His option for 2013 is for $22 million
with a $4 million buyout.
That's an average of $4 million a
year more than what Jeff Suppan makes. Peavy is a much better pitcher
than Suppan but that is still a lot more than this franchise can afford
for a player only playing every fifth day.
Should Peavy come to
Milwaukee, the Brewers would already be saddled with a payroll for 2010
of over $60 million, and that is with only half the roster under
contract. That would leave roughly $20 million to sign another 12 or 13
players. The 2009 payroll currently sits at a litter over $81 million
and owner Mark Attanasio has said there is a little wiggle room with
that but not too much.
Another reason I'm opposed to the Peavy
deal is the fact that we already have a staff ace on this team. Yovani
Gallardo struggled in his last start against Houston but that can be
attributed to rust from not pitching for so long.
Gallardo has
proven start after start this year that he is capable of being a
top-notch pitcher in baseball. Along with Dave Bush, Braden Looper, and
Manny Parra, the Brewers have a very solid rotation that can compete
with any team in the National League.
Do I think the Brewers
could add another starter? Sure, any team could use more starting
pitching. It is the single most important asset in baseball. However,
the Brewers aren't as desperate for a staff ace like they were last
season.
There will be plenty of very reliable above-average
pitchers that will become available over the next two months. I would
rather see the Brewers go after that level of a pitcher and save all
their top prospects to maintain the ability to be competitive well into
the future.
If Jeremy Jeffress can ever learn how to pitch with
control, the Brewers' future rotation will consist of Jeffress,
Gallardo, and Parra. There will be no need for Peavy's contract with
that sort of talent at the top of our rotation.
The Brewers can
and will compete for the playoffs with or without Jake Peavy on their
team. For the Brewers to have a legitimate shot at competing for the
playoffs over the next several years as well there's only one stance to
take on trading for Jake Peavy: just say no.