By now it has become common knowledge even among the most novice
Milwaukee Brewer fan that JJ Hardy will be dealt this offseason.
Alcides Escobar has been groomed to become the starter, and the job
will be his from day one in 2010.
Hardy had an awful 2009, that
saw him demoted in August to Triple-A. He spent enough time in the
minors that his service time this year won't count towards his free
agency eligibility, so whichever team trades for him will have his
services for two years and not one.
The Brewers won't get the
return for Hardy that they would like since he scuffled this year, but
he is still young enough with plenty of past success to still get
quality pitching returning to Milwaukee. It is quite likely that Hardy
will be part of a package being shipped out of Milwaukee to net the
best possible starter in return. Both Mat Gamel and Corey Hart have
been brought up in possible trade talks.
Hardy won't turn 28
until August of next season, so he's just entering the typical prime of
a player's career. He hit 50 combined home runs between the 2007 and
2008 seasons, showing great power for his position. While he doesn't
have the range of the great shortstops in the game, his arm is as
powerful as anyone's in the game.
While a trade to any
major league team is a possibility, some teams make more sense than
others. I'll take a look at every team to try and determine a few that
may ultimately become Hardy's home in 2010.
Teams with little to no chance of trading for Hardy
All
NL Central teams- The Brewers would be very hard pressed to trade Hardy
to the Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Astros, or Pirates. Teams generally do
not trade in their own division. While not an impossibility, too many
bad things could happen to the Brewers to risk trading Hardy to any of
these teams.
New York Yankees- A team with Derek Jeter at
shortstop has no need for Hardy. Don't forget they also have Alex
Rodriguez to move from third base if Jeter is ever out for an extended
period of time.
Philadelphia Phillies- Jimmy Rollins may not be
a great leadoff hitter, but he does so many things at the plate and in
the field that would make Hardy useless in Philly.
Colorado Rockies- Two words: Troy Tulowitzki.
Tampa Bay Rays- The Rays have Jason Bartlett and Ben Zobrist, so they have no real need for Hardy.
Atlanta
Braves- Yunel Escobar won't even reach arbitration status until 2011.
Although he has been the subject of his own trade rumors, the Braves
would be foolish to get rid of Escobar.
Arizona Diamondbacks-
This is a situation very similar to the Braves. Stephen Drew has been
the subject of many trade rumors, but he is still under team control
for a few more years and isn't likely to go anywhere.
LA Angels- Erick Aybar has improved every year for the Halos and is under team control for a few more years.
Cleveland
Indians- The Indians are in full rebuilding mode and wouldn't like part
with the starting pitching the Brewers would ask for in return.
Asdrubal Cabrera will likely be the team's shortstop for the next few
years.
Texas Rangers- Elvis Andrus has the shortstp position locked up in Texas well into the next decade.
Chicago White Sox- You can never put anything past Kenny Williams, but with Alexei Ramirez as shortstop a deal is unlikely.
Teams with established shortstops that still could make a trade
Florida
Marlins- Yes, I realize the Marlins have Hanley Ramirez. The team has
made it known that Ramirez will one day move to first base as well. If
they decide to make the move this winter, Hardy or a package could be
had for any starter not named Josh Johnson.
New York Mets- Jose
Reyes and his injury concerns are what make the Mets a player. If he
can't come back completely healthy, Hardy would be a good back-up plan.
The Mets and their fan base can't have a repeat of the 2009 season.
LA
Dodgers- The Dodgers have Rafael Furcal, but he could move to second
base next year if the team doesn't re-sign Orlando Hudson. A long-shot
but not impossible.
Seattle Mariners- Jack Wilson is nothing
special at shortstop. If his option isn't picked up, the Mariners could
be a frontrunner for Hardy's services.
San Francisco Giants-
Edgar Renteria was signed this past offseason, but he quickly fell out
of favor. It would be hard for the Giants to just cut him and trade for
Hardy but it could happen.
Washington Nationals- It would be
surprising to see the Nats make a trade for Hardy but it would make
sense. Cristian Guzman is the current shortstop but he could move to
second base. A left side of the infield with Hardy and Ryan Zimmerman
would stack up quite well against anyone in the league.
Teams that make the most sense to acquire Hardy
Oakland
Athletics- The A's have good young pitching and a need for Hardy's
glove and bat. A move to the West Coast would be welcomed for the
Arizona native.
San Diego Padres- Everth Cabrera seemed to take
control of the shortstop position, but acquiring Hardy would be a sign
to the fan base that the team is working towards the future a bit
quicker than originally thought.
Baltimore Orioles- The Orioles
could make a lot of sense for a Hardy trade. Melvin Mora is likely to
be gone, so the team will have a hole at third base as well. A Hardy
and Mat Gamel package for Jeremy Guthrie would help both teams fill
holes.
Toronto Blue Jays- Marco Scutaro should leave in free
agency. Aaron Hill and Hardy up the middle would make Roy Halladay very
happy...if he's still pitching in Toronto.
Detroit Tigers- The
Tigers need to overhaul the left side of their infield. Hardy and Gamel
would do wonders for the team. It's hard to think the Tigers would give
up Rick Porcello, but maybe they would part with Edwin Jackson.
Minnesota
Twins- The Twins will need to replace Orlando Cabrera and Joe Crede.
Which one of the Twins pitchers would come back to Milwaukee? Nick
Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, or Brian Duensing would all improve the
Brewers' rotation.
The winner of the JJ Hardy sweepstakes
Boston
Red Sox- The Red Sox are by far the team most often talked about when
Hardy's name is mentioned. Despite what some Red Sox fans want you to
believe, Jed Lowrie isn't a long-term solution at shortstop. Mike
Lowell is under contract for one more year. Gamel could be groomed to
be his replacement.
Clay Buchholz would be a good starting point
for the Brewers return package. If the Red Sox would be willing to
include Manny Delcarmen, Michael Bowden, or Daniel Bard in the deal as
well, Doug Melvin would be a fool not to pull the trigger.
A
trade of JJ Hardy will be unpopular with some fans, but those that want
the best long-term for the team will cheer the day Hardy is no longer a
Brewer.