November 2009 - Posts

• What does the Trade Market look like for Mat Gamel?

  Posted Nov 17 2009, 04:43 PM by TheRealBrewersGM

  When the Brewers traded JJ Hardy for Carlos Gomez, they sealed their fate as to how they will acquire starting pitching this winter. Other than John Lackey, the free agent class for pitchers is rather underwhelming, but Brewers' GM Doug Melvin is determined to find two starters on the market.

  The Brewers still have players they could trade for pitching, most notably Mat Gamel. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi report that while a trade isn't out of the question, it is unlikely to happen unless the Brewers find another team willing to offer comparable pitching talent that is the equivalent of Gamel.

  In the report, they note the logjam the Brewers could have in the infield. Rickie Weeks and Casey McGehee will enter the season as the starters at second and third base respectively. Gamel will serve as the primary back-up at third, while McGehee could also fill in for Weeks at second on occasion.

  If the Brewers decide McGehee is capable of being a full-time player, they could still decide to trade Gamel. He is, by far, the player that could bring the most in return to the Brewers. Should the Brewers decide to go ahead with a trade of Gamel, what could they hope to get in return?

  In the eyes of most fans, the Brewers received an unspectacular return for JJ Hardy. They wanted to focus on his 2007 and 2008 seasons as selling points, while ignoring his awful 2009 and hoping to get value from his previous successes as opposed to his current flaws.

  While Gamel hasn't set the league on fire in his time in the majors, he is still a top left-handed hitting prospect that is under team control for several more seasons. The Brewers would like to get back a pitcher they could insert directly into their rotation with team control over the player for at least a couple of seasons.

  Projecting possible trade partners is difficult. One must take into account that the trade must make sense for both teams, not just the Brewers trading Gamel to a team for the best possible pitcher, regardless of whether the other team needs Gamel or not.

  The Red Sox, Tigers, Marlins, Orioles, Twins, and Mariners could all be looked at as teams that could give the Brewers young, controllable pitching and still have a need for Gamel in return.

  The Red Sox and Tigers currently have options at third base; however both Mike Lowell and Brandon Inge are free agents after the 2010 season. Acquiring Gamel now could shore up third base for either team in the long-term.

  The Red Sox wouldn't give up Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard for JJ Hardy, but would they be willing to give up either for Mat Gamel. Michael Bowden is another name that came up in the Hardy talks. If Milwaukee thinks any of the three are legitimate future starters, dangling Gamel would be a smart move.

  Edwin Jackson is reportedly being shopped by the Tigers. He is under team control for two more seasons. Gamel could see time at third base and designated hitter for the Tigers before taking over for Inge in 2011.

  The Marlins are constantly looking to get younger and shred potential high-salary players. Ricky Nolasco is under team control for three more years and could be a huge addition to the Brewers' rotation. The Marlins could insert Gamel as an immediate starter.

  The Orioles will be trying to replace Melvin Mora. Gamel could team with Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Brian Roberts as the foundation of the offense. Jeremy Guthrie is under team control for three more seasons. His numbers aren't overly impressive, until you remember he pitches in the same division as the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays.

  Milwaukee and Minnesota have already been involved in one trade this winter; could they be partners for another? The Twins have a ton of young pitching they could trade and they have a hole to fill at third base. While none of the Twins' starters may be future superstars, filling a spot in the bottom of the rotation for the next several years is also a very important need.

  The Brewers talked with the Mariners at the trade deadline about acquiring Jarrod Washburn. Mariners' GM wanted both Alcides Escobar and Gamel for the three-month rental of Washburn. Obviously, that is something Doug Melvin never gave serious thought to. The Mariners have several young pitchers that could appeal to the Brewers, and if the Mariners don't re-sign Adrian Beltre, they'll have a need for a third baseman.

  Trading Gamel will net the Brewers a good starting pitcher. It will also mean they are trading off the best hitting prospect currently in their organization. Casey McGehee is anything but a sure thing to maintain the type of production he produced in 2009. Given all that, Melvin will be very hesitant to give up Gamel.

  The Brewers are likely to overspend for mediocre starting pitching in free agency. That's what the market will dictate. The Brewers would be smart to spend as little on these pitchers as possible and continue to develop pitchers in their own system. With the uncertain futures of McGehee and Prince Fielder, Mat Gamel is too valuable to trade unless for a top-of-the-rotation arm.

  
  

  To read more by Jesse Motiff, click here.
  Filed under: Milwaukee Brewers, Doug Melvin, Mat Gamel

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• Would Edwin Jackson Be a Good Fit for the Brewers?

  Posted Nov 14 2009, 01:32 PM by TheRealBrewersGM

  Rumors have surfaced in recent days that Milwaukee Brewers' GM Doug Melvin has talked with Tigers' GM Dave Dombrowski over the possibility of acquiring starting pitcher Edwin Jackson. Jackson is being shopped in a cost-cutting move by the Tigers.

  Jackson is coming off the best statistical season of his career, and he is under team control for two more years. He made $2.2 million in 2009.

  It was a tale of two seasons for the young righty. He was named to his first All-Star team in July with a 7-4 record and a 2.52 ERA.

  By the end of the season, his ERA had risen to 3.62 with a record of 13-9. Over his final 12 starts, he gave up three runs or less only three times. He finished the season with almost 30 more innings pitched than at any point in his career.

  It appeared that he suffered from a tired arm, but it should be something that won't hamper him in the future. He's now been a regular starter for three seasons, building up his innings pitched each year. There should be no ill effects from the end of 2008, and he should have no issues throwing 200 innings again in 2010.

  The Tigers could use help at a few different positions. If Curtis Granderson is traded, they could use help in the outfield. Brandon Inge will be entering the final year of his deal in 2010, and the Tigers could look for an eventual replacement at third base for him.

  The Brewers have a couple outfield prospects that aren't ready for the Majors, but could be long-term solutions in center field to replace Granderson. Lorenzo Cain and Logan Schafer have became the organizations top two outfield prospects.

  Corey Hart could also be a trade candidate. He has two years left of team control and could be moved to center if needed. Despite missing over 50 games due to injury, Hart still had a good season. His power numbers dropped, but he drew a career-high number of walks and raised his on-base percentage from .300 in 2008 to .335 last year.

  Hart's price tag may be more than what the Tigers are looking to spend, so they could inquire about Mat Gamel or Casey McGehee. Each are cheap options at third base, however neither one is nearly the defensive player of Inge, but both are better choices at the plate.

  The teams may run into a stumbling block in the Tigers want young pitching in return. All the good pitching prospects for the Brewers are at Double-A or lower in the system. Gamel should be enough on his own for Jackson, given that the young third baseman is under team control for six more seasons and still regarded as a top hitting prospect.

  Even with an arbitration raise, Jackson would be a cheaper option financially than most pitchers on the free agent market. If Manny Parra can live up to his potential, a staff fronted by Jackson, Parra, and Yovani Gallardo would greatly improve the rotation from 2009.

  Edwin Jackson is definitely an option that Doug Melvin should pursue. Jackson helps the depth of the rotation, while not having a lot of wear and tear on his arm. His numbers should improve in the National League, and he could very easily return to the All-Star form he showed in the first half of 2009.

  
  

  To read more by Jesse Motiff, click here.
  Filed under: Milwaukee Brewers, Doug Melvin, Edwin Jackson, Detroit Tigers

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• Pitching for the Brewers in 2010: Jon Garland

  Posted Nov 12 2009, 09:02 PM by TheRealBrewersGM

   

  One of the most important attributes in building a pitching rotation is the durability of the pitchers. When a team can rely on a starter to go out every fifth day to make his start, they have the foundation for a very good rotation.

  When Brewers' GM Doug Melvin looks over a list of available starting pitchers this winter he'll find few pitchers that are more reliable and durable than Jon Garland. The Dodgers have declined their option on Garland, making him one of the more attractive options on the open market.

  Since becoming a full-time starter in 2002, Garland has averaged 32 starts a season and over 200 innings pitched while winning an average of 13 games.

  While his career 4.42 ERA may not be spectacular, he doesn't walk many batters. He also doesn't strike out very many batters either. He pitches to contact, so he needs to have a good defense behind him to achieve success.

  He made $6.25 million last year when the market was slow. Many pitchers, Garland included, signed a one-year deal hoping the market would be stronger this winter and teams would be more willing to sign them to long-term deals.

  Garland will only be 30-years old when the 2010 season, making him one of the younger pitchers available for a team. He will likely seek out a four or five year deal, but could settle for much less if the market falters like it did last season.

  Given his durability and success, Garland could easily demand eight million a season. Even with salaries dropping a bit, he is a better pitcher than some of those making several million more per year.

  Like most of the pitchers on the market this year, Garland would fit well into the Brewers' rotation. He would give the team a dependable arm behind Yovani Gallardo. If the Brewers are willing to give Garland the contract he's looking for, he could prove very beneficial to the rotation and bullpen.

  The problem with Garland will come with the current defense the Brewers have assembled. Carlos Gomez and Alcides Escobar are both above average defenders, but the rest of the positions are filled by average defenders at best. This could greatly have an impact on his effectiveness and result in career-low results.

  While Garland is a quality pitcher and will help which ever team he joins, he wouldn't be a good match for the Brewers. The Brewers won't be able to pay the market rate that another team will likely offer him. Couple that with an inferior defense and he becomes an unattractive choice for Milwaukee.

  The Brewers will find one or more pitchers to put in their rotation for 2010, but it's very unlikely that one of those pitchers will be Jon Garland.
  Filed under: Milwaukee Brewers, Doug Melvin, Jon Garland

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• The Brewers Are Preparing For 2011, Not 2010

  Posted Nov 11 2009, 04:34 PM by TheRealBrewersGM

  Although the offseason has barely begun, the Milwaukee Brewers are already making their plans for this time next year. Rebuilding, retooling, or reloading; call it whatever you like but that's what the Brewers are using the 2010 season to do.

  While this may be hard for fans to swallow only a year after making the playoffs for the first time in 26 years, it's a harsh reality of being a small or mid-market team in the current baseball economy. The Brewers simply cannot hope to compete for the playoffs year in and year out.

  Critics will say if the Brewers aren't trying to win a championship while they have Prince Fielder that they should just trade him now for the best package. However, the plan is for the Brewers to make their biggest push for a championship in 2011. If they are unable to sign Fielder, then they will at least have a foundation to continue competing after his departure. It's also the right thing for Brewers' GM Doug Melvin to do.

  The team will spend 2010 having several members of their roster adjusting to life in the majors. Carlos Gomez, Alcides Escobar, and Jonathan Lucroy will all be 24 or younger next year. They will all be thrown into the fire of playing on a major league roster, each with significant roles.

  Gomez and Escobar will take over for Mike Cameron and JJ Hardy at very difficult defensive positions. They will also have the freedom to fail and grow from those failures since they will be counted on as the unquestioned starter at their respective positions. Each will have many stumbles throughout the year, but both are talented enough to overcome any obstacle and become stars for many years to come.

  Doug Melvin has come out in the past few days praising the play of prospect Jonathan Lucroy. Melvin is comfortable with giving Lucroy a spot on the big league roster in spring. Jason Kendall's departure is all but a certainty, so Lucroy will make the jump from Double-A Huntsville to the Brewers.

  Lucroy had a very good year at Huntsville and has followed that up by playing superbly in the Arizona Fall League. It's not unheard of to have a catcher jump from Double-A to the majors, but he will have his work cut out for him. He may not catch every day, but he will likely see significant time with either Mike Rivera or another veteran back-stop the Brewers sign.

  Lucroy may struggle with his bat early on, but it is unlikely he would perform any worse at the plate than Jason Kendall did in 2009. His main objective will be to learn the pitching staff and continue improving behind the plate.
  

  While the Brewers have some cash to spend this winter, they will have a significantly more to spend next year. The contracts of Jeff Suppan and Bill Hall will finally be off the team's books. The team will only need to spend $2 million to buyout the option year on Suppan's deal. Another $250K will get them out from under David Riskie's contract as well.

  The team will also face up to a $1 million buyout on Trevor Hoffman's deal. If they Brewers have no internal candidates to take over his role, it's like they would keep Hoffman provide he's healthy and effective for the entire 2010 season.

  Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, and Yovani Gallardo will all be arbitration eligible, but the team will also be welcoming prospects like Angel Salome and Lorenzo Cain. Others like Brett Lawrie, Jeremy Jeffress, Taylor Green, and Zach Braddock may also be ready for roles on the team by Opening Day 2011.

  All of those incoming talents will team with the veterans to provide a relatively inexpensive payroll. Given generous arbitration raises to those eligible, taking into account all the minimum contracts due to the young players, and picking up Hoffman's option, the Brewers could have a payroll of around $60 million needing to round out their roster with two to three pitchers.

  The free agent pitching market next winter may be one of the best in the recent memory. Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Brandon Webb, Jorge de la Rosa, Joe Blanton, Javier Vazquez, and Aaron Harang are all potential free agents at the end of the upcoming season.

  Halladay currently stands as the top dog of the market and will easily command a CC Sabathia-like contract. If Milwaukee doesn't make a play on him, they would no doubt be able to match almost any other contract offered to the remaining pitchers on that list.

  The Brewers could pair one or two of those pitchers with Yovani Gallardo and have quite a formdable rotation. Their lineup would feature a good balance of speed and power, youth and experience. It is a similar formula that saw Milwaukee win the NL Wild Card in 2008.

  Having between $20-25 million to spend on pitching would make the Brewers a major player in the free agent market. That number could drop if the Brewers sign anyone to a multi-year deal this winter, but they would still have a large amount to go after a marquee pitcher.

  Giving a pitcher a one-year deal this winter will leave Melvin with a lot of wiggle room throughout the season. If the pitcher performs well, the Brewers would have the inside track of retaining his services in 2011. If the team happens to falter but the pitcher is having a good season, Melvin could trade him to a contender to help restock the organization's farm system.
  

  If the Brewers are indeed taking a similar approach to this, fans shouldn't feel like 2010 will be a wasted year. Any lineup with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder in the middle of it will score a lot of runs. Trevor Hoffman closing games will make sure Milwaukee doesn't blow many games in the ninth inning. Yovani Gallardo should continue to establish himself as a top young pitcher in the league. His numbers will improve given the team provides him with more run support.

  Acquiring a big-name pitcher to team with Gallardo would also shift the foundation of the Brewers franchise long-term. The focus would change from a power-hitting, station-to-station team with mediocre pitching to a balanced hitting team with strong starting pitching. The team will continue to be enhanced in that area for several years into the future with a farm system currently stocked with young power arms.
  

  Fans may feel the Brewers have no chance of ever winning a World Series if Prince Fielder were to eventually leave. There is no doubt that it would be very difficult, but Doug Melvin needs to continue to look at the big picture and plan for every possible scenario. The short-term may see a decline in on-the-field performance in 2010, only to see the team rebound and be a very legitimate contender to bring a World Series title back to Milwaukee.

  
  

  To read more by Jesse Motiff, click here.
  Filed under: Milwaukee Brewers, Prince Fielder, Doug Melvin

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• Pitching for the Brewers in 2010: Jarrod Washburn

  Posted Nov 11 2009, 10:52 AM by TheRealBrewersGM

   

  When the current crop of free agent pitchers are discussed the name that most frequently comes up as a fit for the Milwaukee Brewers is Jarrod Washburn. This isn't the first time the two have been linked together. In fact, Washburn has been mentioned as an option for the Brewers almost his entire career.

  Washburn is a Wisconsin native, having pitched in college at the University of Oshkosh. The Brewers had interest in him after the 2005 season, but he chose to sign with the Seattle Mariners.

  His name came up this year prior to the trade deadline in July. Mariners' GM Jack Zduriencik reportedly asked for both Mat Gamel and Alcides Escobar for the three month rental of Washburn. Brewers GM Doug Melvin wisely spurned the offer, but is again trying to lure 35-year old lefty to Milwaukee.

  Other than his win-loss record, Washburn was having the best statistical season of his career for Seattle last season before being traded to the Tigers. That was after having the worst statistical season of his career in 2008.

  Injuries hampered him once he was traded to the Tigers, and caused him to be very ineffective while in Detroit. Although surgery to repair his injured knee will have healed well in time for spring training, Washburn will have a lot of convincing to a team to give him a multi-year deal.

  As is the case with most pitchers on the market this offseason, durability is a chief concern. Washburn has only pitched 200 innings in his career twice, the last time coming in 2003 for the Angels. Only five times in his 12-year career has he made more than 30 starts.

  Washburn had the luxury of playing in SafeCo Field the last few years, which is notorious for being a pitcher's ballpark. He also had a very good defensive outfield behind him. Although Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun may be future Gold Glove winners, they are both still young and still experience growing pains in the field.

  While Washburn may be hoping for a multi-year deal worth several million per year, the market may dictate something completely different. He just completed a four-year deal worth $37.5 million. Dreams of another contract similar to that may have died with his struggles in Detroit.

  Many fans in Wisconsin seem to enjoy the idea of "one of their own" coming in and playing for the Brewers. The idea tends to cloud their judgment when assessing Washburn's worth and value, something the front office can't afford to have happen.

  With the current crop of starting pitchers, Washburn may very well be slotted as a second or third starter. That doesn't speak to his abilities as a quality pitcher; that speaks to just how awful of a pitching staff the Brewers currently have assembled.

  Money, of course, dictates everything in baseball. Washburn could be at a point in his career that he may like the thought of pitching for his hometown team. Maybe he will realize that his value isn't as high as some have thought. He may be open to taking a one or even two-year deal for around $5 million a year. If he were open to such a deal, Melvin would have to at least consider the idea.

  Washburn could also realize that this is likely his last chance at a big contract and simply go to the highest bidder. No one would fault him for that. The Brewers need to be smart enough to back away from the table with him if that turns out to be the scenario.

  Everyone loves to see the hometown guy come and pitch for his home team. What fans love even more than that is a winning ball club. To achieve the latter, the Brewers need to avoid Jarrod Washburn this winter and go after cheaper, safer options.

  
  

  To read more by Jesse Motiff, click here.
  Filed under: Milwaukee Brewers, Doug Melvin, Jarrod Washburn

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