Sports Nirvana

The Likely Fallout from the Carlos Gomez Trade

TheRealBrewersGM — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 23:11:40 GMT

Now that a day has passed, and Brewers' GM Doug Melvin has spoken about it, it's time to figure out what the acquisition of Carlos Gomez means for the Brewers this offseason.

Melvin commented at his press conference yesterday that he received no offers for pitching that he felt was worth trading Hardy for. Gomez fit a need for the Brewers, and he was comfortable enough with the offer to make the deal.

Many fans figured Boston was the destination for Hardy that made the most sense. In fact, Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe confirmed that the Red Sox were in on the discussions for Hardy.

Melvin tried to get Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard, but Boston was only willing to part with Michael Bowden. Buchholz would have stepped right into the rotation behind Yovani Gallardo. Bard would have been a great arm in the bullpen, and he could have been a future closer after Trevor Hoffman left.

While Bowden may not be as well-known as Buchholz or Bard, he's still a very promising pitcher. He was ranked as the number-two prospect in the Red Sox system by Baseball America. Although he struggled in Boston this year, he made 24 starts for Pawtucket and finished with a 4-6 record and an ERA of 3.13. He projected to a number three or four starter in the majors.

While most are in agreement that the Twins got the better end of the trade, even those in the Twins' organization feel that Gomez could still turn into a very good player for the Brewers.

Melvin stated that Gomez coming to Milwaukee means the end of Mike Cameron's time in Milwaukee. Cameron is a free agent, and Melvin feels that money that could go to Cameron would be better served going towards free agent pitching.

Even in the best case scenario, this is a very risky move for Melvin. Cameron will be 37-years old when 2010 begins, but he is also a safe bet for an offense that finished third in the National League. In addition to a very good glove in center field, one could pencil him in for 60-plus extra base hits, 70-plus RBI, and 65-plus runs scored.

Gomez will cover much more ground that Cameron. He also has a very good arm. Melvin is hoping Gomez's great defense will be able to help improve the pitching staff. More importantly, he is also 13-years Cameron's junior. The Brewers were old in a couple positions, but Gomez will only be 24 at the start of next season.

Gomez qualified as a super-two player, meaning he will be eligible for arbitration this winter. It will be the first of four arbitration eligible years for him. He will make only a fraction of the $10 million Cameron made in 2009.

The wild-card for Gomez will be his bat. He must raise his career .246 batting average and .292 on-base percentage if he wants to remain a long-term starter for the Brewers. If he struggles this season, Lorenzo Cain should be ready for a shot by 2011.

By trading Hardy and not re-signing Cameron, the Brewers will save anywhere between $10-15 million in 2010. According to Melvin, all that money will be allocated towards starting pitching.

Most of the pitchers out there have been discussed already, and there are several options that could be obtained in a relatively cost-efficient manner. If Melvin can do this, the Gomez trade becomes more appealing.

Melvin could decide to throw a long-term, high-money contract at a pitcher as well. While reading this, Brewer fans are already envisioning another Jeff Suppan-type contract. In no way can he make another mistake like he did with Suppan.

If management is serious about trying to sign Prince Fielder long-term, they need to keep as much money as possible freed up for Fielder. Melvin needs to avoid the impulse of getting into a bidding war against other teams for John Lackey, Jarrod Washburn, and Jason Marquis.

The Brewers could still acquire pitching via trade. Mat Gamel, Angel Salome, and to a lesser degree Brett Lawrie could also be dealt for a controllable, inexpensive starter. While Gamel could get the best return in a trade, Salome may be the most likely dealt. Jonathan Lucroy has passed in on the organizational depth chart and is playing very well in the Arizona Fall League.

Brewer fans may never be happy with the return Doug Melvin received for JJ Hardy. They need to remember that a mid-market baseball team must be creative to remain competitive over the long-term. Carlos Gomez gives Milwaukee a defensive anchor in the outfield that will be cheap for the next four seasons. Now the real offseason will begin for Doug Melvin in his quest to improve the pitching staff.

Good-bye JJ Hardy, Hello Carlos Gomez

TheRealBrewersGM — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 18:24:22 GMT

The day that many Brewer fans have been waiting on for over a year has finally arrived. JJ Hardy was traded by the Brewers to the Minnesota Twins on Friday for centerfielder Carlos Gomez.

All along it was thought Hardy would be traded for a starting pitcher, but Brewers' GM Doug Melvin obviously had other ideas. Getting a non-pitcher for Hardy is very surprising to most, but Melvin undoubtedly has more moves in his arsenal to improve the team.

Hardy fell out of favor with the Brewers this year and was sent to the Minors in August in favor of top prospect, Alcides Escobar. Escobar showed enough in his time with the Brewers that Melvin felt comfortable trading Hardy.

On the surface, most will probably think the Twins won this deal. As of today, they probably did.

The Twins receive a former All-Star shortstop that will add good defense and a power bat to go along with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Hardy is under team control for two more years. This move alone could keep the Twins atop the AL Central over the Tigers and White Sox.

Carlos Gomez will serve several purposes for the Brewers. The biggest attribute he'll bring to the Brewers is his speed. If Ken Macha decides to institute more of a running game, both Gomez and Escobar could very easily steal 30 bases next year.

Another upside with Gomez is his affordability and control. He is under team control for four more years and won't command to high of a salary in arbitration this year. It's imperative, however, that Gomez improve at the plate.

This move likely signals the end of Mike Cameron's time in Milwaukee. Cameron is a free agent that will likely command a high salary in 2010. The Brewers will lose power substituting Gomez for Cameron, but the defense shouldn't take much of a hit. He needs to raise his average on on-base percentage significantly in order to justify getting rid of Cameron.

Cameron was a clubhouse leader with a great veteran presence. The 2010 Brewers will now being Prince Fielder's team on and off the field. Fielder would usually step aside to Cameron for matters in the locker room.

The Brewers had the third best offense in the National League last year, and that will take a severe hit losing Cameron. It's hard to imagine Ryan Braun and Fielder having better years than they did last season, so Melvin will be hoping that both Rickie Weeks and Corey Harthave above average years at the plate to offset Cameron's departure.

As a stand-alone move, this isn't a great start to the offseason for the Brewers. They lose too much offense while not addressing their starting pitching concerns. Luckily, the hot stove just got fired up and Doug Melvin has a few months to improve the team. Be patient Brewer fans as to not turn this into your winter of discontent.

The Most Important Offseason in Milwaukee Brewers History

TheRealBrewersGM — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 22:20:47 GMT

Expectations for the 2009 season were sky-high for the Milwaukee Brewers. Despite the departure of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, many felt the Brewers would still compete for a playoff spot after successfully making the playoffs in 2008.

Unfortunately, the starting rotation assembled my Brewers GM Doug Melvin didn't perform up to expectations. The team fell on hard times due to injury and ineffectiveness, and the team slipped to third in the division with an 80-82 record.

In retrospect, finishing 10 games worse in 2009 wasn't really a horrible drop-off after losing two ace-quality pitchers. Fans need to realize that success in baseball is fleeting. As bad as 2009 may have been, the Brewers still have enough quality pieces to compete in 2010, as long as Melvin realizes that now is the time for the Brewers to go for a championship.

While some may scoff at the idea, with a few strategic signings and a few gambles, the Brewers could enter 2010 as the favorites in the NL Central and a serious threat to the Phillies and Dodgers for the pennant.

Now Cardinal and Cub fans will roll their eyes at that thought, but each team has their own set of issues this winter which will greatly affect their chances at winning next year.

If Matt Holliday decides to leave St. Louis, they will be right back to an offense with Albert Pujols and not much else. Should Holliday stay, they will be the favorites in the division heading into spring training. And does anyone really believe Mark McGwire will help the Cardinals as their new hitting coach? McGwire is a beloved figure in the city, but this appears more of a public relations move than it does a baseball move to help the team.

Cub fans can be a bit like Oakland Raiders fans in their thinking: myopia can take over and reality is disregarded. The team is saddled with aging stars and contracts that are next to impossible to trade. Derrek Lee had a great year, but he'll be 34 entering the year. Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez are also on the wrong side of 30. Many of their players will be a year older, not a year better.

Priority one this offseason for the Brewers will be to upgrade their rotation. Number two on that list will be to try and sign Prince Fielder to a long-term deal. That isn't likely to happen, which makes finding starting pitching all the more important.

Melvin has said he wants to acquire to starters this winter, but he should set is sights so low. There are so many pitchers on the market that could be had for a bargain price, that he should allow himself a limit. Instead, he should try to acquire as many arms as possible and let the abundance of arms sort themselves out in spring training.

In one of the worst kept secrets in baseball, even the most novice fan knows that JJ Hardy will get traded this winter. Although Buster Olney speculates that Hardy will be one of the many players non-tendered, don't believe it.

Hardy can still bring value pitching back to Milwaukee. Glen Perkins from the Twins and Brian Bannister of the Royals are a couple of the latest names being thrown out as possible pitchers coming to the Brewers for Hardy. Either would be a welcomed addition to the rotation.

Free agency will be where Melvin picks up any other pitcher he acquires. Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard, Mark Mulder, Doug Davis, Jarrod Washburn, Carl Pavano, Jon Garland, and Rich Harden have all been talked about as Milwaukee being a possible destination for their services.

Each pitcher has his own set of questions. Some must overcome injuries, others ineffectiveness or inconsistency.

With Prince Fielder likely to leave Milwaukee after the 2011 season, Melvin must take a unique and rogue approach to the available pitching this winter.

By spending $10-15 million specifically focused on the starting pitching, the Brewers could have a surplus of arms to choose from.

Noah Lowry, Mulder, and Rich Hill could all be had for as little as a Minor League contract.

Sheets, Bedard, Harden, and Brandon Webb are coming off of injury concerns and an incentive-laden deal could entice any of them to come to Milwaukee. A one-year deal to prove themselves for a bigger, more lucrative contract next winter will be what each seeks.

Davis, Washburn, Pavano, and Garland will all be seeking more expensive, long-term contracts that might be too much for the Brewers. Davis has pitched for the Brewers before and has hinted he would be open for a return.

Doug Melvin won't be alone in his pursuit of starting pitching this offseason. Several teams have the resources and opportunity to do the same thing as the Brewers. That's why he needs to be the most aggressive player this offseason and stockpile as many live arms as possible.

A team can never have too many pitchers, and the window to win a World Series title in Milwaukee is rapidly getting smaller. Those are two great reasons for the Brewers to be bold this offseason. It's a big risk that could blow up in Melvin's face and ultimately cost him his job. It could also result in a World Series title being raised in Milwaukee.

Brandon Jennings: Too Much Too Soon

TheRealBrewersGM — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 01:28:57 GMT

One week into the NBA season and already several great stories have made their way into the spotlight. Perhaps the most surprising story has been the play of rookie point guard Brandon Jennings.

The tenth overall pick by the Bucks has had his journey well documented. He spurned college after high school in favor of playing pro ball in Italy. It's a decision that Jennings himself has credited to his early success.

Jennings has made it very easy for fans to get excited about his future. In his debut game, he was one rebound and assist shy of recording a triple double. He followed that up with back-to-back 20-plus point games against division rivals Detroit and Chicago.

Fans and most media outlets have fallen in love with Jennings. They have vaulted him to the top of Rookie of the Year talk, and some are already throwing out phrases like "future superstar" and "perennial All-Star". That's very high praise for a player that turned 20 less than two months ago.

Before everyone is so quick to anoint Jennings as the next great anything, they should take a closer look at recent Bucks' history. That history will show he is already a player the team might not need.

One of the biggest criticisms of former Bucks' point guards was their shoot first, pass second mentality. Throngs of fans became bitter and eventually booed Mo Williams and even Ramon Sessions for their propensity to find their own shots before getting teammates involved.

In his first three games, Jennings has taken 54 shots. To his credit, he is shooting over 48% from the field, showing no signs of intimidation in his new surroundings. He's shooting an even better percentage behind the three-point line, hitting half of his attempts.

In Jennings' defense, Michael Redd has only played a game and a half and will miss at least the next two weeks due to a knee strain, giving everyone the opportunity for more shots. Coach Scott Skiles needs to make sure that Jennings doesn't get in any bad habits however by taking too many of those shots.

Even when Milwaukee is at full strength, they have no "superstar" player on their roster. They must take on a true team mentality and find the success from the greater good as opposed to any one individual. Hakim Warrick and Andrew Bogut should be the ones to benefit most from Redd's absence, not Jennings.

There is no doubting Brandon Jennings talent. It's easy to see in the speed and confidence he shows on the court. He may very well be the next great point guard in the NBA, but his time isn't quite yet.

No matter how great of an experience Italy was for him and how that might have sped up his maturity level, he's still just a wide-eyed, 20-year old rookie. Before he grabs the NBA by its throat, he needs to do the same with the Bucks and be a true floor general. He can then worry about being a true superstar.

Pitching for the Brewers in 2010: Mark Mulder

TheRealBrewersGM — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 02:55:35 GMT

In the first installment of looking at pitching options for the Milwaukee Brewers in 2010, we took a look at Erik Bedard. Injury-prone lefties may be popular this offseason, as Mark Mulder will be looking for employment as well. The Brewers may be near the top of his list of possible destinations, and Milwaukee should have equal interest in the former two-time All-Star.

Mulder hasn't pitched in the majors since 2008 and hasn't pitched a full season since 2005. Any team that signs him to a contract is taking a big gamble as far as possible injury risk.

The upside to a potential suitor for Mulder is his relative inexpensive price tag. Any team that offers him a big league contract will have a decided advantage in obtaining his services. If they are willing to make it an incentive-laden deal with the possibility of a few million dollars provided he stays healthy and pitches well, Mulder will almost certainly sign the deal immediately.

The Brewers will be able to dangle an ace in the hole for Mulder as well. The team recently hired Rick Peterson as their pitching coach. Peterson served as the same role for the Oakland Athletics when Mulder experienced his greatest success in baseball. Ken Macha, the current Brewers' manager, also happened to be the manager in Oakland at the same time.

Peterson also worked with Mulder on his mechanics earlier this season when he was trying to prepare to throw for scouts. He was never able to get to that point, but there's no doubt that he and Peterson are very close.

From 2001-2005, Mulder was one of the best pitchers in baseball. In those five seasons, he averaged just under 18 wins a year. His ERA only rose above four in 2004, and he only pitched less than 205 innings in 2003, although that was the same season in which he led the league with nine complete games.

Although no one would expect him to put up those type of numbers, he would definitely help a starting rotation that had zero starters pitch 200 innings, and only one (Yovani Gallardo) finish with a sub-four ERA.

The Brewers have had issues with injury-prone pitchers in the past. Unlike Ben Sheets, however, Mulder won't come with the price tag that Sheets did in the past or even for the upcoming season.

The Brewers should lay all their chips on the table and go after Mulder. A one-year deal with incentives totaling up to three million should be enough for his services. The team could then look into a longer deal at the end of the season if he can maintain his health and pitch effectively.

Acquiring as many potential starters as possible should be priority number one for GM Doug Melvin this winter. A pitcher like Mulder could pay enough dividends to help transform the Brewers rotation into a whole new unit next year.

There is very little if any risk for the Brewers to pursue Mulder. If he doesn't pan out or gets injured at any point in 2010, the Brewers will be out less than a couple million dollars. Should he remain healthy and regain any form from the early part of the decade, the Brewers will have acquired the biggest steal of the offseason.