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April 2008 - Posts
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Nothing new on his contract situation, but vacationing Bucks big man Andrew Bogut emailed some comments about the hiring of Scott Skiles and teammates Yi Jianlian and Ramon Sessions to Journal Sentinel Bucks beat writer Charles Gardner. The story appeared on JSonline today.
It's a good read, though nothing altogether controversial. The Bucks center is excited about playing for Skiles. Bogut's new coach likes how Bogut is developing as a player, improving each year - and thinks he'll keep getting better.
About Yi, Bogut talks up his shooting ability and athleticism, and says Yi's work ethic is "unbelievable."
On Sessions, Bogut says the rookie's late season run with the Bucks was the first time he played with a "true point guard" since being drafted by the Bucks in 2005. He touts Sessions for doing a great job "trying to find his teammates first, shoot second."
So much for TJ Ford, who Bogut played with in 2006, and Mo Williams, a shooter who often found his teammates second last season, at times looked lost running the offense, and was in conflict with Michael Redd. In Mo's defense, the Bucks looked better as a team - and won more (5-5) - in the games that Redd missed than they did when Mo was out and Redd played.
Other than Yi and Sessions, no other player is discussed, which is interesting in and of itself, though I wouldn't read too much into it -- as much as we Bucks fans would like to, searching for clues about Hammond's thinking r.e. personel and trades this summer. Bogut did talk up the passing of Sessions, as if to say, "the guys I've been playing with since I've been here don't look for their teammates ..." We can editorialize from there.
From where Bogut is sitting, in Croatia, on vacation, almost certain to get the long-term extension he wants from the team, nothing good could come from pointing fingers at his teammates. He doesn't know who will be on the team and who won't be next season. The last thing the Bucks players need now is more negativity in the already bad chemistry.
File it under "if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all." Or as little as possible.
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Strange Days for the Celtics So how does a team that went 37-45 in the regular season, the youngest team in the playoffs, shock basketball fans everywhere by deadlocking the best team in basketball 2-2 in the first round of the playoffs?
The series that was the best excuse for going back to the bye system - remember the week off Nellie's Bucks teams got at the end of each season - is now one of the more befuddling matchups in sports. And Joe Johnson, the Hawks shooting guard noticed only by Hawks fans at this year's All-Star game, has arrived.
Johnson scored 35 points last night, 20 in a Jordan-esque fourth quarter. The Celtics entered the fourth quarter with a 10-point lead, only to watch helplessly as Johnson and the Hawks outscored them 32-17 to take game four of the seven game series.
In the process, Johnson made his coach, Mike Woodson, look like an offensive genius. Woodson simply isolated Johnson (at Johnson's suggestion) one-on-one against Ray Allen, whose defense last night was about as soft as the defense he usually played when he was a Milwaukee Buck. Charmin soft. Textbook matador. After one driving Johnson basket in the fourth quarter, the TNT cameras panned to Celtics coach Doc Rivers, just as he was screaming, unmistakably, in all silent-screen actor obviousness, DAMMIT RAY!!!
Not to let Rivers off the hook. Doc was thoroughly outcoached by Woodson. As Woodson's Hawks formed their isolation set possession after possession, Johnson starting nearly at half court in one corner against Ray as the rest of the Hawks gathered along the opposite sideline, Rivers had no answer. He just left Allen to defend Johnson and all that open court by himself. "DAMMIT RAY!!!" was all he had.
Rivers last night might have turned in one of the worst-coached games of the postseason were it not for Denver coach George Karl's pathetic job all last week against the Lakers. (I digress). The only basket the Celtics scored in the first EIGHT minutes of the 4th quarter was a three-pointer by Ray Allen, easily the best Celtics player on the court in the final 12 minutes. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce looked like rec league players.
Some of it was just bad, dumb luck - the Celtics worked hard for some good shots that, in the 4th, just rattled out. But great basketball teams make their own luck, and that's where the Celtics fell short. (Nope, not gonna go for any of those hackneyed Irish cliches).
Bucks fans watching the game had to wonder why Rivers left Sam Cassell on the Celtics bench until the final 1:30 of the game. Sam "I Am" will find a way for his team to score more than four points in eight minutes. The trick is to put him in the game and give him the ball. Even George Karl understood that.
Come to think of it, any coach who has Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Sam Cassell at his disposal yet, minute after minute, puts the ball in the hands of a guy named Rajon Rondo, deserves all the trouble that Joe Johnson and the Atlanta Hawks can give them.
“Basketball is a strange thing,” Cassell said after the game. “Strange things happen.” (Like another former Buck, Zaza Pachula, squaring off against future Hall of Famer Kevin Garnett).
After last night's game, I'm having a difficult time picturing the Celtics beating Lebron's Cavaliers in the East semifinals - assuming the Celtics manage to get past the Hawks in this first round.
George Karl, the overrated Having watched the Nuggets more than most NBA teams this season other than the Bucks, I've come to the conclusion that George Karl was absolutely full of it during his five years as coach of the Milwaukee Bucks, especially on defense. George Karl is no defensive coach.
Karl's Denver Nuggets, led by Allen Iverson, last night became the first 50-win team in NBA history to be swept out of the playoffs last night by Kobe and the Lakers. Karl's greatest talent as a coach is to take supremely talented teams and make them playoff underachievers. He did it in Seattle (two surpise first round flops). He did it in Milwaukee in three mediocre regular seasons in five years. Now he's done it in Denver.
Not to lay it all on Karl's doorstep. Allen Iverson and fellow guard J.R. Smith, who led the Nuggets reserves, were the only two Nuggets players who seemed to give a headband that their season was coming to an end. Carmelo Anthony's looking round and melo - if he doesn't lay off the potato chips, beer and weed, he's going to turn into Antoine Walker.
The disappointing West The ultra-competitive Western Conference has been anything but in the playoffs. With a few notable exceptions (game one of the Spurs-Suns series, which left the Suns demoralized), the Western matchups have been yawners. The vast majority of the great playoff basketball being played this year has come in the East. Cavs-Wizards has been intense. Pistons-76ers has been a war. The Hawks, again, the youngest team in the playoffs, have stunned everyone against the Celtics.
The Lakers are as good as advertised, maybe even great. But the Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets and Denver Nuggets stumbled into the playoffs burnt out from the long regular season. Maybe 82-games is too many. Some of the older players just look tired (Jason Kidd, Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin - 30 years old and two knee surgeries). Injuries have taken their toll (Houston).
It's no coincidence that the younger teams are beginning to emerge. The Orlando Magic, the Hawks, the Sixers, and the Chris Paul-led Charlotte Hornets have all impressed. Dallas, Detroit, Phoenix are beginning to wane. I'd say that about the Spurs but I know better. The Celtics are being tested.
Lebron James and the Cavaliers nursed injuries all season long and only won 45 games. But the Cavs are built for the playoffs, not the regular season, and they are proving it. Like the Spurs, they're a seven-game series team.
The regular season is only a snapshot of NBA basketball in time. Sometimes the camera lies, and this seems to be one of those seasons.
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 Can you picture Michael Redd in a Cleveland Cavaliers uniform? I did a few times during game four of the Cavs-Wizards series Sunday afternoon, especially on the Cavs final offensive possession.
When Lebron James drove to his left in the final 10 seconds, game tied at 97, drew the Wizards double-team and fired the ball into the corner to an open Delonte West, I saw what the Cavaliers envisioned in the summer of 2005 when they bid on the free agent services of Michael Redd. The Cavs imagined Michael Redd as their shooting guard, set up in three-point territory on the baseline, taking the pass from Lebron and draining the shot. They could not possibly have figured on Delonte West, a point guard picked up this year from Seattle just a few minutes before the trading deadline.
Fortunately for the Cavs, on Sunday that is, they fell $20 million short in their bid for Redd. West hit the three for the 100-97 game-winner. Maybe Redd hits it, maybe he doesn't. Who knows? After the game, James talked about how important the shot was for the playoff confidence of his young point guard, West -- who looks as though he'd be more at home on a Sunday tagging the side of a train in Philadelphia than playing in the NBA playoffs.
Confidence-builder? Lebron, baby, you can't win a title if you're still working on your teammates' confidence in the playoffs. No wonder the Wizards and that Stevenson thug think they can win the series by roughing things up. This is the playoffs!!!
I started to feel so badly for my buddy Lebron, who I've known since his college ball days, that I gave him a call. He picked up his cell on the first ring, because, well, I'm pretty sure I still owe him money. Can't rightly recall at the moment.
"Hey 'Bron - great pass. You looked like Oscar Robertson on that play - textbook."
"J-Mo, you never saw Oscar play."
"All right, Larry Bird then."
"Look man, don't make me hang up on you! I know what you're calling about, anyway. How many times do I have to tell you I don't run this team?"
"But I don't believe you. ... So how about it? Delonte's probably a great guy but ... c'mon, Michael Redd?
"How come you're always trying to get me to take Michael? I tried before and it didn't work."
"We gotta new GM. Smart guy from Detroit. And the new coach is buddies with the coach Redd threw under the proverbial bus all year. Redd can't stay here."
"But why me? I already got one guy on my team that makes more money than I do (Big Ben Wallace). What makes you think I want two?"
"He gives a bunch of his salary to charity, 'Bron. It'll be good for Cleveland. And he's from Columbus, isn't he? Think of Ohio. Look, what I'm really trying to do here is save the guy's career. If he stays here, Scott Skiles'll kill him, one way or another. If he goes to a lousy team, he'll just keep playing the way he's playing and he'll never be on a winner. With you, he CAN'T play his way because YOU'VE got the ball. I'm doing this for his own good. Think of the assists!"
"I do like the dimes."
"Dimes are the thing. He was fine in the FIBA qualifying games, wasn't he?"
"Yeah, that worked out good."
"All you gotta do is figure out which one of the young guys you want to part with."
"You're killing me, J-Mo. I can't separate Delonte and Danny (Gibson). They're like two puppies from the same litter, finally reunited when Delonte got here. I gotta look at Wallace and Ilgauskas every day - I need those little guys. They're funny. Plus they're free agents."
"Yeah but they're too small - you can't keep 'em both. You only get one. You knew this day was coming. Sign and trade, baby."
"Alright, alright. Well, after today, I guess you gotta take Danny. West sure has got some grit in him. Needs a course in public speaking, tho."
"Like yesterday."
"What else are you fans in Milwaukee going to do for me?"
"Brace yourself."
"I'm sitting down."
"We'll take Wally."
(Loud crashing noise on Lebron's end).
"You'll WHAT? Did I hear that right? Wally's only got one year left on his contract. You get a player for one year."
"We'll take him, bad ankles, $12 million contract for a year and all. We need him. We've just lost a coach with a silent "K" of all things in his name, and we can't ball in Milwaukee without a guy who's name you can't spell. Right now, I'm just gonna keep calling him Wally 'cuz I'm not ready to spell S-c-z-c-e-r-b-i-a-k right. Was that close?"
"Man, I think you got it!"
"Really? First try!"
"Wait a minute, how many zee's you got?
"I got one. I got two cee's and one zee."
"There's two zee's, that much I know. I don't know where they go. He's only been on my team a coupla months. Sorry bro."
"You okay? I heard a loud crash over there."
"Yeah, I'm fine. That was just Ilgauskus and Wallace again, tearing apart the visitors' locker room."
"You guys just won - how can they be fighting?"
"Who says they're fighting? They do that for kicks. Man, you know I played with Z for years and he never talked, not once to anybody, just went about his business with the same stone expression on his face, never even cracked a smile."
"Nev -- (Another loud crash). 'Bron, what's going on over there?"
"I told y-- HEY Z WATCH IT!!!! Not even once. Then one day, Big Ben walks onto our practice floor, first time, I look over at Z and his face lights up and he's got this big grin on and I look over at Big Ben and he's laughin'. Can you picture that, Big Ben laughin'? Crazy. They've been thick ever since. It's like living with two bears, J-mo!!!
(Another loud crash) WALLACE, that's MY MOM!!! Sorry man, I GOTTA go ..."
"What about Wally?"
"Done deal!!! You don't even have to tell me the real reason why. I gotta g-.."
"Well, we need the salary cap flexibility more than we need a -"
"WALLACE!!!"
(click)
Done. Bucks get Daniel Gibson, a 21-year-old guard who, as a rookie out of Texas played the point 20 games in the playoffs last year and this season shot 44 percent from three-point land. Wally couldn't get in the game in the fourth quarter Sunday against the Wizards because the kids, Gibson and West, were playing too well to take out. This season, Gibson makes about $500,000 and will be a free agent, but shouldn't be very expensive (he was hurt part of the season). Plus the Bucks get a smart, great-shooting veteran in Wally Szczcerbiak for a year, then his $12 million clears out for 2009-10 when the team starts paying Bogut the $10-plus million or so.
Cavs get Michael Redd, the shooting guard they wanted three years ago and the $51 million remaining on the last three years of the contract Redd Slickless Larry Harris. The Cavs can hope to contend now before their aging big men expire as NBAers.
Meanwhile, Bucks GM John Hammond gets some much-needed salary cap flexibility 2009-11 to grow the Bucks in Bogut's prime -- and by then it will be more clear what "pieces" could make the Bucks contenders. Right now, that picture is too fuzzy and distorted.
Lebron's down with it. What do Bucks fans think? Deal or no deal?
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Note to Steve "the Homer" True or anyone getting ready to interview Scott Skiles (and fans who might have missed this when I posted it a week ago).
Before you ask Bucks Coach Scott Skiles again about the fight he had with Shaquille O'Neal when they were teammates on the Orlando Magic, come to the Bob Boozer Jinx first. Homer, who interviewed Skiles last week on his ESPN Radio show (if you missed it, we've got the podcast featured on the Sportsbubbler Bucks main page), put the question to Skiles like this:
"The Living Legend: The intensity of Scott Skiles. So intense he reportedly once confronted then-Orlando Magic teammate Shaquille O'neal for loafing in practice. True or false?
"Uhh, true, but it was in self-defense."
"You don't have to elaborate if you don't want to," Homer said.
"No, it was self defense."
No is right. (Which is why, Homer, check here before you interview Skiles again.) ESPN's Chris Sheridan got to the bottom of it last year and wrote the definitive "Skiles vs. Shaq story." Let's review:
The year: 1994
The stage: Magic practice floor on the road in Los Angeles.
Our narrator: Larry Krystkowiak, Magic reserve power forward.
The combatants: A young Shaquille O'Neal, Magic center; Krsytkowiak; Scott Skiles, Magic point guard.
The action: "Haymakers" thrown, Skiles "sorta" in a headlock, wrapped around Shaq, mayhem.
The instigator: Scott Skiles, of course.
The result: Mutual admiration society between Skiles and Shaq. Continued friendship between Skiles and Krystkowiak. Shaq and Krystkowiak? No hard feelings, respect. Magic win 50 games that season, Shaq's second in the NBA.
Krystkowiak tells it far better than I do. Here's that link again.
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Bucks center Andrew Bogut wants a long-term contract extension, up to five more years, and his agent this week said the Bucks and new GM John Hammond seem positive about getting a deal done. Bogut's improved play and 38 double-double games being the bright spot in another dismal season, this qualifies as good news.
So what is the 23-year-old Bogut -- the 12th leading rebounder in the NBA, and an improved post player both offensively and defensively (9th in the league in blocked shots; 3rd in offensive charges drawn) -- worth after three seasons? How much can the Bucks afford?
The latter question is hardly complicated: the Bucks can't afford much in the next two years given the salaries on the current roster. The Bucks have already picked up the fourth year options of Bogut's and Charlie Villanueva's 2005 rookie contracts. Paying them both will bring the Bucks right up to next year's salary cap, with about $9 million or so to play with before hitting the league's luxury tax limit, likely to be about $70 million. The tax is $1 dollar tax for every $1 dollar over the limit.
Slickless Larry Harris had this all worked out. The Bucks were supposed to win this year and next year with the current roster, and Larry didn't schedule in any of that "salary cap flexibility" GM's desire. This means that there's very little chance the Bucks will tear up the $6.3 million agreement for next season (they could). There will be no cap room in July to pay him more -- unless Bobby Simmons suddenly quits to go play in Albania, which would free up $10 million. Or if Hammond trades Michael Redd for Miami's lottery balls which would free up $15 million or so.
Now to the question: What's Bogut worth?
Let's start by looking at the top salaries in the NBA this season.
As you can see, the All-Star, All-NBA centers and big forward/center types (Amare Stoudamire, Yao Ming, Paul Gasol, Rasheed Wallace, Chris Bosh) are grouped 20th-30th on the list, making between $13.1 (Bosh) and $13.8 million (Stoudamire). (Yes, they will all make less money this year than Michael Redd, believe it or not).
Veteran champions like Shaq, Tim Duncan and Ben Wallace have much more lucrative deals, but their contracts won't tell us much about Bogut. A center not on the list who will be next season: Dwight Howard of Orlando, the league's leading rebounder for three years running and a near sure-thing 1st Team All-NBA selection. Howard made $6 million this year in his fourth year. Before this season, he was in Bogut's contract situation, and the Magic extended his contract five years beyond this one for an additional $85 million.
Howard, the #1 pick in the 2004 draft, creates a long shadow for Bogut (#1 in 2005) in this extension game. So does Yao Ming, who signed an extension with Houston for 5 years and $75 million in 2005.
Howard at an average of $17 million per year for five years,
Yao at $15 million per year for five set the standard for young NBA centers in the extension era. Bogut doesn't play at their All-NBA heights (among centers, only Stoudamire does and he's moved to power forward on the Suns), nor to the level of the big men currently in the $13-$14 million range (Stoudamire again), nor can the Bucks assume he will be playing like a $13 million dollar star even in two years. As well as Bogut has played at times, would you want to bring the Bucks 54-110 record over the last two years to the bargaining table?
Bogut's agent can point to a bad contract, like the one center Eric Dampier signed with Dallas ($10.5 million this year) and say, "Andrew should be paid more than Dampier now."
The Bucks can look at New Orleans' Tyson Chandler's $10.5 million in 2008 and say, "Chandler's the 3rd-leading rebounder in the league, and the Hornets are winning in the playoffs." It's arguable whether Bogut is underpaid.
Where does the league's 12th leading rebounder on a losing team fit in? Because of his young age, Somewhere in line with Chandler's six-year $63 million deal, which, only two years ago was considered a glorious waste of money in Chicago.
Cleveland Center Zydrunus Ilgauskus will make $10.1 million this year. At 32, Ilgauskus may be on the down side in his career, but he outplayed Bogut two of three games this year (the game logs at basketball-reference.com ain't pretty). Bogut should surpass Ilgauskus soon, but next year? Or the year after?
Philadelphia's Sam Dalembert, who dominated Bogut defensively in three of four games this year, has a six-year $64 million deal. At $10.25 million this year Dalembert's right where he should be in the Ilgauskus-Chandler range -- though many in Philly view him as overpaid. And Dalembert's a much better defender than Bogut.
Bogut has improved each year, true, but he's only recently moved up among the Top Ten centers' in the league, and he's much closer to #10 than to Howard at #1. Like it or not, Dalembert and Ilgauskus are Bogut's peers in the Eastern Conference paint. If the Bucks can keep the first three years of the contract extension in the $10-12 million per range, they've got a good deal. Over five years -- what Bogut wants -- the Bucks should look to keep it around $60 million.
At five years, $65 million, a Bogut contract begins to look too lavish for what he's accomplished. Sure, if Bogut's a mutliple-time All-Star by 2011 and 2012 when Bogut is 26-27, in his prime -- and the Bucks are winning -- $13-14 million a year won't look so gaudy. But that's a big "if." Sign Bogut at $70 million for five years now and fans will ask why he's getting a contract in Yao's neighborhood.
With next year scheduled to be $6.3 million, adding 5 years and $60-63 million to it would bring Bogut's six-year terms into the $66-69 million range, which is where the Bucks should keep it. (The more I think about it, six years - $68 million sounds more than fair, but why do I have this feeling it will be more? Just a feeling.)
There's no reason for Hammond to break the bank, not now with a player who still has much to prove on a team that is still so incomplete. The Bucks will need plenty of salary cap space to grow in the years-to-come; it's a good time to find out how serious our 23-year-old center is when he says his goal is to win in Milwaukee.
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Some unabashed hype is needed in these not-so-private negotiations, and that's what agents are for. This is what they're saying in Melbourne, Australia, verbatim from the text of the press release put out by Bogut's supremely confident agent, David Bauman:
"In 226 career NBA games, the Melbourne, Australia native has improved
in each season and demonstrated that he is one of the top young Centers in
the NBA. In fact, Bogut's improvement has made it a near certainty that the
Milwaukee Bucks will seek to sign the center to a long-term extension, on
July 1, in order to secure one of the key foundations of their team for the
next six years. Bogut, along with Chris Paul and Deron Williams, are the
star players from the 2005 NBA Draft class."
Leave it to the sports agent to start an argument, especially with CP3's MVP-like season, Deron's All-NBA year and Laker fans talking up injured Andrew Bynum as the best center of the 2005 draft (and worried whether he'll ask for a $75 million-plus extension this offseason). It'll be interesting to see how Bynum and Bogut's contract extensions pan out.
And leave it Foxsports-australia to ramp up Bogut's contact numbers. In its coverage of this story, fox-aussie pegged Bogut's new contract "in the region of $63-79 million." The headline? "Bogut to earn the Big Bucks" ... Fox does realize Larry Harris was fired, don't they?
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