I'm finally ready to say it: This is not the Spurs year.
I've avoided blogging about the Spurs-Hornets series, which has come down to Game 7 in "the hive" in New Orleans tonight, because every year that I count the Spurs out, the defending champs manage to count themselves in. Pass on props to say, Manu Ginobli's magicianship or Tim Duncan's fundamental genius in the post, and the Spurs stumble. Talk up Bruce Bowen's defense and he fouls out.
I may be jinxing the Hornets, but I like the chances of Chris Paul and gang closing out the Spurs, if only because Paul's Hornets have been great at home (like all of the teams still playing this past weekend) and the officials will be all over the Spurs -- thanks to Robert Horry's illegal pick into airborne Hornets forward David West's ailing lower back. This is a context thing that goes back to last year when the Spurs bullied past the Suns in the Western Finals after Horry body-checked Steve Nash into the scorers' table (the Suns lost Amar Stoudamire in the aftermath for leaving the Suns bench). And now it's Horry again in a tight series with a controversial, if not dirty, play.
Or was it? Clean it was not -- Horry was called for a foul. But how dirty was it? Check it out:
The "What ifs" of the Larry Harris era: It was difficult to watch the Celtics-Cavs series and not think "What if the Bucks hadn't _________ ?" (Fill in the blank.) All told, there were five ex-Bucks on the Celtics-Cavs rosters. Big forward Joe Smith and guard Damon Jones for the Cavs; for the Celtics, guard Eddie House and Sam and Ray.
Game 7 featured a strong performance by House, who brought energy and experience and great shooting off the bench for the Celtics in the first half. In the second half, House, Ray and Rajon Rondo rotated in and out, taking care of the ball and leaving the game-saving for Paul Pierce (41 points). In 71 minutes, the three Celtics guards turned the ball over only four times (boxscore). The Celtics as a team turned it over only 10 times, to 14 by the Cavs. Game.
Bucks fans may vaguely remember House from the 2004-05 season. The Bucks picked him up in Dec. 2004 off the waiver wire and he played five games in a deep reserve role during the Bucks 9-20 start, logging a total of 42 minutes. I saw him against Philly in 2004, the game in which Allen Iverson went off for a Bradley Center record 54 points in a blowout of the Bucks, featuring atrocious defense by Bucks starting guards Mo Williams and Michael Redd. House looked pretty good firing threes off the bench, hitting two and scoring eight points in 17 minutes (boxscore).
House was waived in January, in favor of guards Erick Strickland, in his final year as a pro, and point guard Mike James, traded to Houston for Reece Gaines at the trading deadline. James would start for Toronto the next season while Gaines stuck around at the end of the Bucks bench for another year. Gaines hasn't played in the NBA since. Also on that 2004-05 team was 36-year-old Kendall Gill, in his final season as a pro.
Most Bucks fans would probably prefer to forget that season, the year of waiting for TJ Ford to recover from his spinal injury. Mo Williams (from Utah) and James (from Detroit) had been signed as free agents to fill in for TJ, who had no replacement because Harris had let TJ's backup, Damon Jones, go to Miami in free agency -- on a one-year, $2.5 million contract. By the second month of the season, Harris was still looking for guards on the waiver wire (Eddie House), who was just as good as any of them, yet didn't fit into Harris' equation at all, if Harris had an equation or a plan.
Can we finally say, as Bucks fans, that the T.J. Ford project was a waste of time? Injuries, free agent signings, a string of journeymen guards wearing Bucks uniforms. It was all so ... bad.
Ernie Grunfeld/Larry Harris didn't need to be shrewd to simply say "stop" after the 2003 Ray Allen trade and hold on to Sam Cassell, who had three years left on his contract. To a team trying to fill a void left by trading Allen, and with Gary Payton leaving in free agency, a veteran floor leader like Sam "I Am" was a necessity. It's not as though the Bucks were in rebuilding mode - Michael Redd, Tim Thomas, Desmond Mason and Toni Kukoc were coming back. Sam was 34-years-old, but the clown prince of basketball would play 218 games over the final three years of his contract. It defied all reason to opt for a rookie point guard going into the 2003-04 season.
But that's what the Bucks did. GM Grunfeld stayed on after the firing of coach George Karl, through the drafting of TJ -- and a week later swung the Sam Cassell/Ervin Johnson for Joe Smith trade. Almost as if to say, "we might have made a mistake," one of Larry Harris' first moves as GM was to get even more point guard help, signing Damon Jones to a free agent contract. The other guards were Strickland and Brevin Knight. Jones would lead the 2003-04 Bucks in assists.
With a rookie and Jones at point guard, Redd took over the offense. Forward Tim Thomas was a little more than disgruntled by mid-season and was traded for Keith Van Horne. TJ went down for the season with 26 games to go. The Bucks down the stretch squandered the #4 playoff seed and round one home court advantage, falling to 6th and a first round matchup with eventual NBA champion Detroit. None of this occurs if Sam Cassell is a Buck. But Sam "I Am" was busy making the All-Pro team in Minnesota, and, with Kevin Garnett, leading the T-Wolves to the best record in the league and the Western Conference championships.
What if the Cassell trade never happens?
The immediate benefit is no rookie point guard or string of undersized free agent point guards for three years. Some of those players are effective journeyman pros: Damon Jones, Mo Williams, even Mike James. TJ Ford, too. But the differences between them are slight. Case in point Sunday: Eddie House, not TJ Ford or Damon Jones, played a key role in winning a playoff game seven, to say nothing of Reece Gaines. It was as if Larry Harris was a kid in the little point guard candy store, trying different flavors of the same type of player.
Immediate problem number one is at power forward. Keep Sam and there is no Joe Smith. No great loss there. As steady rollin' as Joe is, he played only 2/3 of the games while a Buck and Harris gave up on him in 2006, trading him for Ruben Patterson, whom Harris let go a year later. Another waste. But the 2003-04 Bucks need a power forward (the Bucks were still paying millions to two PFs whose playing days ended in 2003, Anthony Mason and Jason Caffey.) Luckily, there are two players in the 2003 NBA draft (the Lebron draft) who can help: Nick Collison, a 6'9" forward out of Kansas, picked #12 by the Supersonics; and David West, five years away from being victimized by Robert Horry, 6'9" out of Xavier, drafted #18 by the Hornets. Hindsight being 20/20 and West the more athletic player, averaging 20pts and 9rbs per game for NO this season, the Bucks draft West over Collison. While West develops, the Bucks fill the void with journeyman veterans, and there are plenty of those in the NBA. The Bucks had one in 2003-04, Brian Skinner.
Cassell, Redd, Thomas, West, Mason, Kukoc, Skinner -- this is a playoff team, one that's good enough for a four spot but not good enough to beat Indiana or Detroit in conference semis. The Bucks still have a couple of problems. The centers are Joel Przybilla and Dan Gadzuric. Instead of trading Pryz to Atlanta, the Bucks hang on to him. They also hang on to Skinner heading into 2004-05, as they have no 2004 draft pick. At this point, Kohl is probably over the luxury tax because Caffey and Mason are still on the payroll. The Bob Boozer Jinx at work.
Cassell also presents a problem. He's a free agent in 2006, and would likely leave Milwaukee. Sam's happiness is a fleeting thing. Harris has to figure out how to get value out of Sam in a trade before it's too late. Good thing Timmy and Dez are around. Sam/Timmy or Sam/Mason is a nice package for any number of teams. Dallas is looking to move Michael Finley. Finley's expensive, but Sam/Timmy balance it out, and Harris has until February to make the deal. 2004-05 probably isn't a playoff year, and it's a good year to fall into the lottery. The Bucks are looking forward to 2005-06 when Caffey and Mason are finally off the books. Sometime during the year, Sam/Timmy are traded for a scoring small forward and possibly a reserve guard or PF. No danger of the forward being Bobby Simmons -- too much value in the Bucks package. Best option is Finley.
2005 draft, the immediate need is point guard now that Sam is gone. Center is the secondary need. This is a good thing because Deron Williams and Chris Paul are in the draft, and the Bucks are lucky. They don't get the #1 pick in the lottery but are lucky enough to get Deron Williams (like Utah, the Bucks have Deron rated higher than Chris Paul; it couldn't be helped). The future looks bright.
The big men are still a problem, and Zaza Pachulia is now in the mix. With no Bogut coming in, the Bucks match Atlanta's 4-year/$14 million offer to Zaza and keep him. Przybilla's still on the team and Gadzuric needs to be signed, but not for six years/$36 million. Maybe the Bucks don't keep all three. There's less money for free agent Redd, too, because the Bucks are paying the scoring small forward (Finley?) received in the Cassell trade. Besides, Cassell never allowed Redd to take over the offense and become a gaudy 25-ppg scorer. The reason this ever happened at all (it shouldn't have) was that Redd took advantage of rookie and free agent point guards, and inexperienced coaches. Sam has had a reality-inducing impact on Redd's game, and the Bucks save up to $20 million on Redd's 2005 contract.
The 2005-06 Bucks: Rookie Deron Williams PG; Michael Redd SG; Michael Finley SF; a developing David West PF; a goofy bunch of non-scoring centers but Zaza looks better and better, and he can shoot. Off the bench, Damon Jones/Mo Williams/maybe somebody like Marquis Daniels (from Dallas); Toni Kukoc is in his final year and the Bucks still have Desmond Mason. No, it's not a mighty bench, but the nucleus of the team with Deron at point is good enough to upset the Cavs in round one of the playoffs. Terry Porter, by the way, is still the coach. He even wins some 2005-06 Coach of the Year votes.
Bucks fans are downright optimistic about their team. They prove it by buying tickets. At the 1-4 spots, the Bucks have one of the better starting groups in the league. The Bucks and Cavaliers are the up and coming teams in the East, with the Baby Bulls and Wizards struggling to keep up. David West is becoming a force. Some observers say the team has "good chemistry" and should contend for years if the right piece or two is added. The 2006 draft is a lousy one, but the Bucks don't have a great pick anyway. A good big man would be nice, and that's something to work on.
Overall, the Bucks-o-sphere is a happy, happy place. ....
All because the Bucks held onto to their veteran point guard, Sam "I Am" Cassell, just a little while longer.