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Randolph, not Alexander has had the Bucks inside track in the draft

Cool photo of Joe AlexanderI'm sticking with my earlier prediction that Hammond is working to move this pick, or trade whomever the Bucks draft -- which may or may not explain why West Virginia's Joe Alexander was in town today for a second visit with the Bucks. Until now, LSU's Anthony Randolph has been viewed as the Bucks likely top choice, though there are concerns now that other teams are repositioning ahead of the Bucks and Randolph may be gone by the time the Bucks draft at #8.

Anthony RandolphWhat makes me say this when all draft speculators have the Bucks taking Alexander with the #8 pick and Randolph slipping out of the top 10? For starters, I was at the June 6 workout of Randolph, Alexander and Donte Green of Syracuse. The man of the day was Randolph.

As the media straggled into the court area at the Cousins Center and the players reached for the gatorade on the sidelines, Bucks assistant Joe Wolf strode up to Randolph and the two 6'10"ers exchanged an emphatic high five. I'd say things went very well for Randolph in Milwaukee. In the post-workout interviews, which you can watch here at sportsbubbler.com, Randolph declared himself the best player on the floor. I don't think there is much doubt about this in the Bucks camp. Later that day, Coach Scott Skiles and Randolph were reportedly spotted Downtown eating dinner together.

Alexander and Green were also feeling the Bucks' pro-Randolph vibe. Alexander hung around on the court taking in a few extra high post pointers from Bucks assistant Kelvin Sampson (no harm in kissing up to the coaches). Green decided he needed to show the media some of his stuff and slammed home a couple of high flying dunks on a side-basket. It worked -- Green's an impressive athlete and would be a good pick anywhere out of the top five or six in this draft. Green may yet sneak in to the Bucks plans.

I'd be very surprised if anyone in the media came away from the Cousins Center with the impression that Joe Alexander would be the pick. Journal Sentinel columnist Michael Hunt said as much in his column yesterday, writing that Randolph will likely be taken higher than #8. Here's the excerpt:

“'Everything’s in play,' Hammond said recently. 'Was, still is and probably will remain that way probably right up until draft day. We’re going to explore every option that we can to improve our team, and, as we said, potentially maybe even move the pick.'

That’s good, because LSU’s Anthony Randolph, the 6-10 forward who was probably the best option that worked out for the Bucks, will likely be gone by then. Draft-day trades, though, have become more and more uncommon in the NBA, so it’s possible the new and promising regime will have to take this reclamation project deep into the summer."

The New York Daily News yesterday echoed the Hunt (and BBJinx) take on Randolph.

The Bucks are sending out strong signals that they like LSU's Anthony Randolph at No. 8. A legitimate 6-10, Randolph has been called a cross between Tayshaun Prince and Odom. But West Virginia small forward Joe Alexander, a hard-nosed worker, is seen as a better fit with new coach Scott Skiles. ...

You know whoSo why does ESPN's Chad Ford have Randolph possibly "slipping out of the lottery" in his latest Mock Draft? Ford writes:

"A number of young, inexperienced bigs have been hurting themselves in workouts. It's now a possibility that LSU's Anthony Randolph falls out of the lottery. Texas A&M's DeAndre Jordan, Nevada's JaVale McGee and Florida's Marreese Speights might not hear their names called until the 20th pick or after."

Remember The Chad Ford Principle. He doesn't talk to teams as much as he talks to agents, which means whatever he's got happening with Randolph probably serves the interest of a sports agent or two.

(Since originally posting this, a little research revealed that Randolph's rep is former Chicago Bull B.J. Armstrong of the Arn Tellem agency. Armstrong, a teammate of Bulls GM John Paxson on the 1992 and 1993 Bulls championship teams, also happens to be the rep for one Derrick Rose. Employing the Chad Ford principle we can assume that Armstrong is one of Ford's primary sources regarding not only Rose and the debate over who the Bulls will pick, but Randolph as well.)

Ford wrote in his mock draft last week that Randolph may now be perceived to be a headcase (Brewhoop notes it here.) That's probably a seed planted by Armstrong or other interested parties who want to see certain teams take a pass on Randolph. It's not all that clear what the Sonics, Grizzlies or Knicks will do ahead of the Bucks -- and the Grizzlies and Knicks at least have had interest in Randolph or Alexander or both.

(Brewhoop today notes that weeks ago Ford had Randolph in the top 5 talentwise, a good salespitch by Armstrong right about the time of the Randolph-Alexander Bucks workout. Armstrong and Ford seem to either have Randolph high out of the Bucks reach or too low for the Bucks to dip for. The Chad Ford Principle at work again. Go figure.)

Expect Ford, ever the accomplice for NBA agents, to be wrong on this one, and Hunt to be the writer who's got the Bucks and Randolph in better focus.

Ford also has Eric Gordon now going to the Memphis Grizzlies at the #5 spot -- that's a first for Gordon in these mock drafts -- and writes that he "would be shocked" if the Bulls took Beasley over Rose.

I'd be shocked if Chad Ford is on target.

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Here's an interesting analysis from Adi Joseph on NBADraft.Net. Joseph points out that many players in this draft are struggling to fit an NBA position, and that a little pessimism might be in order for fans of lottery teams.

"Alexander can't handle or shoot well enough to truly play on the wing, but he's too short for the post. He's definitely got some Shawn Marion in him, but often players with similar skill sets struggle to find their offensive games in the NBA.

Randolph is being compared to Chris Bosh. But he struggled with his efficiency as a freshman, turning the ball over 3 times per game and shooting just 46% from the field. And he's rail-thin and had the worst bench press results at the Orlando predraft camp. He'll have to bulk up big time to ever play in the post. But his 2-of-19 shooting from three-point range will need to improve if he expects any respect from defenders at the NBA level."

Ouch. Joseph might even be meaner than I am!

Comments

 

Frank M said:

Ford is Randolph's biggest fan among the the draft geeks, so I think it's interesting how his position has varied with Ford. He seems to be universally sliding in mocks though...DX has said the same thing about Randolph doing poorly in workouts. They quoted some sources using the terms "out of shape" and "laid back" to describe him.  Could be misinformation, but who knows.  There seems to be a lot more negativity about Randolph right now than a couple weeks ago.

I don't really buy that Randolph's agent would plant negative stuff about him...Randolph's draft position is just too tenuous for that IMO.  

Maybe the Bucks were feeling good about Randolph and now they're reconsidering and looking at Alexander once more.  Or maybe Herb wanted to talk to Alexander himself.  Should be fun on Thursday.

June 23, 2008 6:21 PM
 

J.D. Mo said:

Frank, Chad Ford's position varies with almost every player in the draft, so there is really no baseline to establish with Ford's observations, other than to say he talks more to agents than to teams. That's where the Chad Ford Principle comes in handy.

Randolph is, in fact, a tall, skinny, laid back dude who comes off far more mature than Alexander, who has the presence of a 13-year-old. Randolph probably didn't do all that well in strength conditioning tests for some teams but all this "head case" talk doesn't pass the BS test.

My sense is that there is some movement afoot either ahead of the Bucks or behind them in the draft that is dictating what they're doing with Randolph and Alexander.

June 24, 2008 6:12 AM
 

J.D. Mo said:

Frank, I think I nailed it on the head. I did some more research and learned that B.J. Armstrong is the agent for Randolph and Rose, which means we can assume he's one of Ford's main sources. I added it into the post above in bold. The Chad Ford Principle works.

Here's an interview with Armstrong on Rose:

www.insidehoops.com/.../showthread.php

Also, I recalled also that Skiles and Randolph were seen Downtown eating together after the workout, and made that addition up top.

- finis

June 24, 2008 1:08 PM
 

Frank M said:

I can see the Bucks' liking Randolph over Alexander three weeks ago, but what do you make of everything that's happening now?  Do you really think the Knicks pick Randolph 6th?  Even aside from Ford, I don't think anyone has him going higher than our pick. I know there's a lot of BS out there, but when everyone has a guy falling it's usually not a good thing.

And I'm not clear how the Armstrong/Ford connection fits in with Randolph sliding in mocks.  That could be teams that like him trying to get him to slip...though Hammond was very complimentary of him yesterday. But Armstrong isn't going to spread negative rumors about his client.  

At this point it wouldn't shock me if we went either way--I think the more interesting thing is that we'll probably have a shot at Love, Bayless, Westbrook or Gordon (maybe two of those guys), and I'm not sure if that changes the Bucks' calculus much.  Certainly trading the pick seems very possible, but I'm not sure what we might get back.

June 25, 2008 11:10 AM
 

J.D. Mo said:

Randolph dropping?  One week Ford is listening to Armstrong, the next week he's got other agents in his ear.  I don't think Ford's rolodex is filled with team sources, with the exception of the rep from Golden State who called to demand corrections over Ford's Brandan Wright trades.

Hammond and the Bucks are still very high on Randolph, judging from his comments, so what Randolph did at the Bucks workout still stands.

As Hunt wrote, I think there is concern Randolph could be gone by #8 - and a concern too that Alexander could be gone by #8 - so the Bucks are covering their bases. There's a chance Randolph or Alexander will be available. There's a chance a trade is in the works, too ...

I'm expecting surprises Thursday!

June 25, 2008 1:40 PM
 

Frank M said:

I'm not just talking about Ford though...are there any recent mocks that have him at better than 10th?  I'm sure a lot of that is herd mentality, but the SI and DX guys aren't just talking to agents either.  It's a shame the national media doesn't give a rip about Milwaukee, otherwise we might have more people actually digging around for information.

This is one of those funny times of year with the media...you've got someone like Hunt who doesn't follow the draft buzz nearly as closely as Ford, Givony, etc.  Yet it's very possible he's dropping Randolph's name because someone credible with the Bucks mentioned it to him.  Or he could just be fairly misinformed (like that suggestion of Bogut for Billups a couple weeks ago).  

Based on some of the talk at RealGM I"m just going to expect a horribly disappointing trade of the pick...expect little and you'll never be disappointed, right?

June 25, 2008 2:27 PM
 

J.D. Mo said:

I wonder if the Bucks didn't play to the buzz. It was strong for Alexander on draft day. He didn't seem anything like the guy they worked out and his voice had dropped a couple of octaves. Selling tickets is a concern and, in either case, we're talking about backups and trade bait, not starting NBA players. So they drafted the hardnosed, hardworking Joe - a very Milwaukee choice.

Meanwhile, Nellie gets Randolph in Golden State, probably the guy he wanted all along at the #14 pick. Seems like somebody might have wanted to be in the Bay Area.  We may never know.

July 14, 2008 6:47 AM

About J.D. Mo

J.D. Mo is the perpetrator of The Bob Boozer Jinx, your sportsbubbler.com Milwaukee Bucks blog.

About This Blog

I'm J.D. Mo, and welcome to my Bucks blog. I've been a Bucks junkie since 1977 when Nellie drafted Marques and the team was Green and Growing -- until a bizarre lawnmowing accident robbed it of its power forward, Dave Meyers. I knew then that truths stranger than fiction can happen to the Milwaukee Bucks, and probably will. This view rifles through much of what you'll find on the BBJ, along with commentary on Bucks news, fun NBA research and other interesting stuff from the Bucks-i-verse ... as well a cast of characters from around the NBA to liven things up around here, and, above all, keep the rock moving.
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