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March 2009 - Posts
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Does it matter if the Bucks make the playoffs? If their defense doesn't improve to the point where they can consistently gain control of games with it, then maybe there was never a point to making the playoffs.
The Bucks are in Florida to try to figure out a way to beat Dwight Howard and the Magic after an uninspiring performance against the Raptors -- and the coach and his veteran leader are not even concerned about whether their shots go through the hoop or not. They want to talk about defense.
"Congratulations," I said to Z-man the Bulls fan, the only other guy in Axel's (on Oakland) Wednesday night watching "the NBA TV" - everybody else was into the Kentucky-Notre Dame NIT game on the other TVs. "Looks like you guys are gonna make it to the playoffs."
Z-man: "It doesn't matter."
JDMo: "Why not?"
Z-man: "Derrick Rose."
JDMo: "Hinrich playing the point was pretty effective against Detroit ... and the Bucks."
Z-man: "Doesn't matter."
JDMo: "Why not?"
Z-man: "Derrick Rose."
Point being: What's good for Derrick Rose is good for the Bulls right now. If making the playoffs and losing to Boston, Cleveland or Orlando in the first round is good for Derrick Rose, good. If the Bulls make the playoffs relying on Kirk Hinrich to win an extra game or two, no good for Rose. It's better to lose with Derrick Rose playing heavy minutes than to win with Hinrich, no offense to Kirk Hinrich. In fact, Bulls GM John Paxson issued that decree to coach Vinnie Del Negro after some great 4th quarters by Hinrich not too long ago (one against the Bucks Feb. 18).
What does this have to do with the Bucks? Well, if culture change is what it's all about in Milwaukee (and that's what GM John Hammond and Scott Skiles have said it is) then that's the mission Skiles and Richard Jefferson have to be concerned about. Making the playoffs was only important if it grew out of the culture change, which is why GM Hammond spurned offers for RJ at the trading deadline. The message was, continue the work of establishing a winning culture built on defense, whether Joe Alexander or Andrew Bogut or Michael Redd or Damon Jones is on the court, whether the 2009-10 budget can include free agent Charlie Villanueva or not.
Although the Bucks have a core of defensive-minded players in RJ, Luc Mbah a Moute, Charlie Bell and Keith Bogans, the job isn't finished. Where the Bucks are playing, who you're playing, whether they are playing in the regular season or the playoffs, doesn't matter -- as Jefferson pointed out to Tom Enlund after the Toronto game:
“I’m not about starting off trips or ending trips. You’ve got to try and play good basketball. You know, (talking about) ending a home stand, or starting off a home stand,…those type of things, you can’t do that because then you get a mindset of carryover. I try to just take each game individually... We just didn’t do the stuff we were supposed to.”
Jefferson was in a similar mood to point out "where it's really at" when the subject of the Bucks not-so-good shooting came up:
"Your shooting percentage is something that you don't worry about too much. You worry about the quality of shots you're taking . . . if you're taking good shots. You don't want to pass up good shots. And then your defense, what you're doing defensively. We've shown that we don't have to shoot in the high 40s or mid-40s to win games. We can shoot in the mid-to low 40s, and even 30s, and win."
And here's a refreshing change for Milwaukee Bucks fans: the veteran leader and his coach are on the same page. This is part of the culture change:
"We're a fairly high-possession team," coach Scott Skiles said. "One of the reasons is we lead the league in forcing turnovers. We're getting possessions there. When we play better defense on certain nights, we get more possessions that way. We've been a good rebounding team, which means we're getting possessions there. Generally we have more possessions than our opponent in games. I don't focus too much on the scoring, it's how efficient are we being?
"We're first in the league in forcing turnovers but of the top 10 teams, only Charlotte and Miami have less fast-break points than us. So we haven't been efficient enough in turning those opportunities into extra baskets."
And there you have it. The Bucks are in Florida to try to figure out how to beat Dwight Howard and the Magic after an uninspired performance against the Raptors -- and the coach and his veteran leader are not even concerned about whether their shots go through the hoop or not. They want to talk about defense and the type of shots they're getting.
That's culture change.
NCAA tournament note: Duke is no longer Duke. No kidding. Can we now talk about those sweet seeds the ACC teams received?
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 When we last left our Bucks in this heated Eastern Conference playoff race, the Bucks had fallen to 10th and were badly in need of a win Saturday over the Trailblazers, the 9th-place Charlotte Bobcats were apparently channeling the 2001 Sixers and the 8th place Bulls were up against the Lakers in Chicago.
After looking like a playoff team in the 1st half against the Blazers, the Bucks tripped over some missed layups and mental lapses in a disappointing 3rd quarter. The Bobcats were blown out by Jarrett Jack and the Pacers but the Bulls had lost to the Lakers and were due to face the Pistons last night (Tuesday) in Chicago. Unfortunately, the Pistons are no longer the Pistons (with or without Iverson) and are floundering in 7th (34-36) after being blown out by the Derrick Rose-less Bulls. The Bulls, led by Scott Skiles' Baby-Bull-in-chief, Kirk Hinrich, are better than the Pistons right now. That's bad for the Bucks.
Meanwhile in Milwaukee, Bucks coach Skiles pondered starting Luke Ridnour in place of Ramon Sessions in hopes that a rotation shuffle might prevent more 3rd quarter woes -- (thinking of the loss to Portland Saturday and probably the loss to the Knicks two weeks ago when the Knicks took control of the game with a 22-6 run to start the 3rd quarter).
But with the season on the line, Not-so Lucky Luke (aka Frodo) won't be going to Toronto (scroll down after hitting that link; the news is after the NCAA tourney stuff) with the team because of back spasms. ... Which brings us up to date but for Shaq stealing the twitter story from Charlie V over the weekend, purposefully getting Charlie's name wrong and prompting Charlie to get all UConn-ish in his response to the 4-time NBA champion.
The Diesel has 4 rings and is headed for the Hall of Fame and Charlie comes back with smack about Shaq's LSU losing in the kids tournament? Charlie you're in over your head. Now Kobe supposedly wants in on the twitter action, too. I predicted this.
Oh, and Bango had knee surgery. Cue the them from "Soap."
Sessions is now on the hot seat, the point all to himself and the Bucks (31-40) desperately needing a win against the Raptors to stay within striking distance of the Bulls (34-38), now 2-1/2 games ahead. Interestingly enough, the Bucks have been better than half good in the 8 games Ramon hasn't had to look over his shoulder and wonder whether Skiles is about to pull him in favor of Ridnour. Or perhaps it's a function of Skiles not having much choice but to stick with Sessions. Whatever the case, having Sessions as the go-to point guard has been good for the Bucks.
 The Bucks are 4-4 in the 8 games without Frodo, including a loss in Orlando (the game Bogut missed the 2nd half after mashing knees with Dwight Howard) and an overtime loss to Detroit in which Sessions scored 44 pts, 12 assists and 5 rebounds in 44 minutes. (Source: Basketball-reference.com)
Sessions' avg. stat line in those 8 games:
19.9 pts, 9 assists, 1.6 steals w/ 3.25 turnovers in 39 mins.
Ramon also hit the boards surprisingly well, averaging 4.6 per game, including a 9-board game in a win in Detroit Feb. 17.
Ridnour missed two games early due to back problems -- the home opener against the Raptors Dec. 1 and a blowout win against the Knicks in NY Dec. 2 (the game in which Redd sprained his ankle). The Bucks played well for most of the home opener but blew it in the final minutes due to some poor shot selection and some trouble guarding the Raptors shooters in the final minutes.
Ridnour missed Nov. 24 in Orlando with a knee abrasion. The Bucks played an excellent 1st half as Bogut forced Howard to the bench with foul trouble. Unfortunately, on the offensive foul that sent Howard to the bench, Bogut got the worse of a knee collision and couldn't go in the 2nd half. Sessions shot just 3/14 and scored 7 pts, his lowest output of the games Ridnour missed.
Ridnour was out nursing a broken hand Feb. 4-18, a stretch that included just five games due to the All-Star break. Bucks fans will likely remember this stretch because it included the Bucks only 3-game winning streak of the season. The 1st game was the 44-pt game Ramon had at the BC vs. Detroit (a loss) and wins at home vs. Houston (26 pts for Sessions), Indiana (17 assists for Ramon) and the rematch in Detroit in which Sessions tallied 17 pts, 7 assists and 9 rebs.
The lone disappointment of the stretch was the final game, Feb. 18, the second night of a back-to-back after winning in Detroit -- a costly loss to the Bulls at the BC the day the Bulls traded Andres Nocioni, Larry Hughes and others and didn't suit up the new players, John Salmons, Brad Miller and Tim Thomas. Kirk HInrich burned the Bucks for 18 in the 4th quarter. At the time, the Bulls were 23-30 and the Bucks 27-29, looking to close in on the .500 mark. The Bucks have gone 4-11 since the tip-off of that game.
Missing Bogut: The Magic beat the Bucks in the 2nd half in Orlando while Bogut was in the locker room with a swollen knee, and they came back for the win. While Ramon didn't play so well, this was also a game played without Redd, leaving the Bucks record at 3-3 so far in games without Ridnour, Bogut and Redd. The Bucks had the Dec. 2 Knicks game well in hand when Redd was injured in the 3rd quarter.
The Charlie Bell Factor: Did they lose the home opener because Ridnour was out or because Charlie Bell only played 12 minutes? In any case, the loss in the home opener is the only one of "The Bell Factor" games I wrote about last week. With Ridnour sitting out, Ramon playing the vast majority of the point minutes and Charlie getting his 20+mins.
The Ramon Sessions Factor?: Ramon has missed three games this season. The first two were CD games on the road to open the season in late October. The line then was that Skiles felt he wasn't playing well enough to deserve minutes over Tyronn Lue, but given the fact that Ridnour missed the next two and Sessions started those has always left me wondering what that was all about.
The Bucks did not play well in the first two games -- a miserable loss in the season opener in Chicago in which the Bucks looked like the Bucks of last season; and a win in OK City in which Michael Redd was benched early in the 1st quarter while the Bucks were hammering it inside to Bogut. Charlie V had a nice game against the Rawhides, err, Thunder, with 20 pts and 12 boards.
The third game Sessions missed was the blowout of Charlotte at the BC Jan. 2 and I can't remember why Sessions didn't play. The Bucks D was solid without him, as the Bobcats were held to 75 points. Sessions would play the following night in Charlotte, however, Bogut would not, missing his first game trying to get his lower back right. The Bucks were terrible in Charlotte without Bogut. Both Luke and Ramon did play and the Bucks had poor 2nd and 3rd quarters. Redd didn't shoot well and Charlie V played poorly off the bench. A game where the Bucks mental toughness was in question.
Bucks have been 2-1 without Sessions, though for all three of those games they also had a healthy Redd and at least a partial Bogut. Overall, they are 6-5 playing without either Ridnour or Sessions, with two of the four losses being, 1) the sudden loss of Bogut in the 2nd half against Dwight Howard and, 2) one of the Bell factor losses where Charlie only played 12 minutes. They've been good with Ramon playing as the go-to point guard.
 This is a different Toronto team the Bucks will play tonight, with Shawn Marion at forward and without shooter Jamario Moon and center Jermaine O'Neal (a break for the Bogut-less Bucks?). But still, you've gotta like the Bucks chances with Sessions playing about 40 mins at point and Charlie Bell getting his. The Bucks are 2-1 against the Raptors this season, with Charlie Bell playing 31 minutes in both of the wins (one with Redd/no Bogut; the other with Bogut/no Redd). Ridnour has started in both wins against the Raptors, and hit a big 3 late in the 4th to beat them in Milwaukee in January. But Sessions had 11 points and 8 assists in the 22+ mins he played in that victory.
The Raptors are 4-11 since making the Marion-O'Neal trade at the All-Star break and settling in for their lottery pick. The Bucks are 5-11 over the same time frame and not ready to do the same. The Raptors beat the Clippers at home Sunday but lost a back-to-back to the Bobcats in the two games prior.
A win here keeps the Bulls from pulling away and keeps the Bucks playoff hopes alive on this road trip. It also could have some important implications as to how Bucks GM John Hammond proceeds in the offseason as far as looking for salary cap space in a potential Ridnour trade. Ridnour will reportedly rejoin the Bucks when they hit Florida this weekend for an Orlando-Miami back-to-back.
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From deep in the land of Reggie
The Bucks slipped this week in the Ball Don't Lie power rankings behind the floundering Pistons, the Bulls, the Bobcats, the Pacers and the Nets. That ain't right.
While the Bucks season is hanging by a shoelace, Journal Sentinel is giving me some poll about something Ted Thompson thinks. That ain't right either. But there's plenty of Bucks stuff to read on that page after you remember that anything Ted Thompson thinks has to be an oxymoron.
Patty Mills is dominating the NIT, like you might figure the only NBA-ready point guard in the NCAA should. Why Mills and the 28-6 St. Mary's Gaels aren't in the NCAA tournament while 4 of the 7 ACC teams were broomed out of the dance in the 1st round (undeserved seeds and all) is anybody's guess.
Mills, who played with Bogut and Basketball Australia during last summer's Olympics -- drawing rave reviews from Jason Kidd and Chris Paul -- tallied 23 points and 10 assists Tuesday night vs. Davidson and Stephon Curry in St. Mary's' convincing 80-68 win. Curry, of course, was the darling of last year's NCAA tournament, responsible for the Badgers ouster in the Sweet 16.
Gridiron Girl is in Florida and from the sound of it, Florida during Spring Break is the armpit of hell. And I can't help it but every time she mentions this Playboy channel chick named Kendra, I think of Kendra Smith from Opal.
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 Bucks (31-39) vs. Portland Trailblazers (43-26) @ Bradley Center, 7:30pm Saturday, FSN
The Bucks close out their longest homestand of the season Saturday, needing a win over All-Star Brandon Roy and the Blazers to even the stand at 3-3. Do the Bucks need a victory to stay in the race for the 8th seed in the East? No, but if they don't put a streak together soon, the Bucks playoff hopes will die before Andrew Bogut has a chance to return.
Let's call the Blazers game a must-win, an opportunity to bounceback from Wednesday's drubbing at the hands of Dwight Howard and the Magic. The Bulls play the Lakers Saturday in Chicago.
Milwaukee's the last stop on the Blazers 5-game road trip and their 3rd game in four nights. The Blazers split the first four, being blown out in Atlanta, winning in Memphis and Indiana, then losing Thursday night to the Cavs in OT. Portland's playing well but Saturday's a decent chance to jump a traveling West team at the BC (a la the victory over Denver last month.) A winnable game, like any other.
 The team that wins the final playoff spot in the East will be the team with the toughest, most consistent mindset. Coach Scott Skiles is looking for these intangibles out of his Bucks. He also called on the veterans to lead, and though he didn't mention Richard Jefferson by name, that means RJ (12th in the NBA in minutes played) the player Skiles has played more than any other:
"We totally need leadership right now. We need our veteran players to set the tone as far as being mentally ready and carrying us professionally. ... I'm just talking being mentally ready. Knowing their job, knowing what they're supposed to do, knowing the game plan, executing the game plan, competing all the time."
The Blazers start two former Bucks -- point guard Steve Blake and center Joel Przybilla, which is interesting enough. It'll be the 2nd straight game in which the opponent's starting point guard is a former Buck (Rafer Alston for Orlando Wednesday). Prz has become a mentor of sorts for rookie Greg Oden, who missed 15 games Feb-March getting his knee full strength for the playoff push.
The question of who should start at center for the Blazers seems to be settled, and one truth remains: The Oden-zilla frontcourt eats up a lot of space in the paint... Rebounding will be a key. And Luc Mbah a Moute, Charlie Bell and Keith Bogans will have their hands full slowing down Roy and gunner Rudy Fernandez off the Portland bench.
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Energee! is losing big to the Pacemates in the NBA dance bracket. So far the only matchup that has been as one-sided is the Thunder Girls 76-24% landslide over the Suns Dancers yesterday.
The fan support for the Thunder makes sense: there's a lot of excitement in OK City over the old Sonics, and their marketing staff has fun working the buzz of being a new team in a new city. And I'm sure those cowgirls (at right) don't mind kissing a cowboy or two to help the cause.
But the Pacemates? Nothing new about the Pacers. Plus, they've lost 4 straight and the playoff train just left Indy. Not much for fans to get excited about there.
The voting started Thursday at 1pm. I received an email reminding me to vote and offering up a link to the swimsuit pics of Energee! at 1:14PM. By then the rout was on.
I'm not sure what this means in terms of Bucks marketing (or lack thereof) but there's still an hour or two left to vote. Polls closed at 1pm (Friday). 80-20%, Pacemates.
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Devin Harris out for the season: Thanks go to JTF on our Bucks message board for posting this. I kinda stopped tracking the Nets after they lost in LA to the Steve Novak Clippers. That's right, the Steve Novak Clippers. The man can shoot. But then the Nets went out and beat the Knicks without Harris Wednesday. Bucks (1-2 vs. Nets) play their 4th Nets game this season March 30 in New Jersey.
Charlie V reverting to his old ways? Bucks Diary thinks so, and Ty makes some great points. Ty's take on Charlie was plugged by Ball Don't Lie today (Friday).
Gerald Wallace is one bad mudder-fu..: The mental toughness Skiles wants out of his Bucks can be found in Charlotte, which should give Larry Brown's team an edge in the race for 8th. Against the Kings Wednesday, forward Gerald Wallace refused medical attention for a bashed knee, refused to go the hospital for an MRI and then played on it in the 'Cats 104-88 win. That's bad-a**. The 'Cats seem to be channeling Brown's 2001 Sixers.
9th place, one game behind the Bulls and 1/2 ahead of the 10th place Bucks? "We can do this," 'Cats fans are saying. That's right, the Bucks find themselves in 10th Saturday after the 'Cats (31-38) won in Toronto Friday.
Then on Saturday in Charlotte, the Bobcats were blown out by Jarrett Jack and the Pacers, who played without starting point guard TJ Ford. Gotta love this Eastern Conference race. So if the Pacers aren't going to lay down, this could get interesting. They play the Bulls twice in the next seven days.
On the other hand the Bulls don't seem to be in a mood to cooperate.
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 I'm convinced our values as a sports culture are in the **itter, or I should say the twitter. Seems we're all in twit about Charlie Villanueva's halftime tweet Sunday, and have lost sight of what's really important in sporting life.
What's so dam important, J.D. Mo, you ask?
Our Energee! dance team needs us - and you - that's what.
The 2009 NBA Dance Team bracket has been posted, and the tournament is already underway. The Energee! girls are up against the Pacemates (Pacers dancers) in the first round, and the voting started today, Thursday, March 19 at 1pm CST.
C'mon guys, it's not going very well, so far.
The girls are offering a pretty payoff and plying us with drinks -- and swim suit pics) -- so there's no reason to ditch. Every round that Energee! advances in this dance-athon gets a free drink at the Hawks and Magic games next month. The catch is, you gotta buy a $20 lower level ticket to get the drinks -- that's right 20 bucks, lower level and four free beers if Energee! makes it all the way to the final.
 It's a sweet deal, Tiffany says (that's her blowing you a kiss on this page), and she promises not to think less of you if you were like me and counted up how many free beers there were to be had via this promotion.
Seriously, fans have been talking all season long about how good they think Energee! has become. Energee! 2008-09 may be the best dance team the Bucks have ever had, and a lot of credit is due to Tiffany, who's been team captain for a few years now.
But the competition is tough -- the Miami Heat cheerleaders have won the dancers' competition three years running. If Energee! gets past the Pacers' dancers in Round 1, it looks like they'd up against the New Jersey Nets girls, who are holding on to a slim lead over the Sixers' dance team.
But first thing's first: Time to get our heads out of the twitter and show the love, boys and girls. Here's that bracket again.
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Charlie, you're a dumb twit: Don't get me wrong, I don't think Charlie V did anything all that outrageous by taking a minute to peck out a twitter message -- which said, "tied with the Celtics at half - coach says we have to be tough and I better step it up."
It's not like he wrote - "Drinks at Goolsby's later?"
What is twittering? I'm not going to assume everyone knows. I didn't really know what it was all about until recently, when I read Bucks broadcaster Jim Paschke's blog about his experiences as a first-time Twitter user. To me it was just some new kiddie-doo-dad that had been poorly named like a bad acid trip. Sorta like doing wippits, drinking robitussin or snorting effedrin -- whatever it was, it had annoying lingo attached to it and sounded like it would probably give me the numb jitters. Deciding it wasn't for me, I was perfectly content to live vicariously through Paschke, which would be a disturbing thought if I hadn't sworn a solemn vow just now never to think such a thing ever again.
Now about Charlie ... Some will argue that Charlie has committed an egregious act of sports heresy (probably the same twits who canonized Brett Favre as a "real dude" because of all the goofing around he used to do on the sidelines -- Who can forget the "Look - didja see Mr. Miyagi?" bit that he bugged half the team with after he saw Pat Morita sitting in the stands near the Packers sideline?). Why-ever Charlie thought it was a good idea to twitter at the half, I don't know, but at least he was very much focused on the matter at hand - his job. And he played a strong 2nd half.
What twits me about all this is not only the endless supply of stupid wordplay that Charlie is now responsible for, but that he set a dangerous NBA precedent Sunday. Before Charlie did it Sunday at half, no player had ever twittered during a game. Now the floodgates are open. This is an obvious marketing tool for the league known for its relentless marketing, and NBA commissioner David Stern is already a known twitter bug. So's SEIU honcho Andy Stern (no relation to David), I happen to know.
As far as I know, our elected officials here in Wisconsin aren't twittery just yet, but how much longer can that last? Will President Obama be the first president in US history to twitter? Probably -- and doesn't that sound so ... so ... unpresidential.
Wouldn't NBA fans love the occasional in-game twitter from their favorite players? Of course they would. Charlie's twitter nation has quadrupled to over 4,000 subscribers since Sunday, and his following is no doubt growing as I type this -- even though his immediate supervisor, Scott Skiles, told him he better not do it again.
I'm afraid it's too late. Skiles and Charlie can try to get the snake back in the bag, but the beast has slithered out of the building. No doubt it's made it to Los Angeles by now and is hunting down Kobe Bryant.
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 Magic in theory and practice: My theory is that when the Bucks took the court tonight against the Orlando Magic, they caught one look at Dwight Howard and all at once remembered that Andrew Bogut wasn't playing. "Wish Bogues was playing," they all thought, pretty much at the same time. Game over.
The final was 106-80, but the telling tale was that the Bucks were down 65-35 at half. I had begun to believe that kind of deficit would never befall the current, scrappy Bucks. For a couple of minutes, it did look like the Bucks were ready to dig out of the 41-22 hole they were in by the 2nd quarter, but they just couldn't keep track of guys like J.J. Reddick, and ended up making him look like Rasual Butler of the Hornets. Or was it DaeQuan Cook of the Miami Heat?
No, this was not one of the finer performances by they Ridnour-Sessions point guard tandem. In fact, it was so bad, Charles Gardner of JS-Online decided to write about the Magic's replacement point guard, Rafer Alston. If the Bucks are going to make it up the Mount Doom that is the 8th playoff seed in the East, Sam and Frodo might want to remember where they hid the ring.
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Ball Don't Lie: The power rankings this week are a riot. They're right on, too, as far as the rabble riot in the East fighting for that last playoff spot.
My other dumb theory: The Bucks fell flat tonight against Howard and the Magic to light a fire under Bogut about how much we need him back for the final weeks of the season (of course, that's not what they were doing but what they did do delivered much the same effect). The Bucks have two more cracks at the Magic. No, Bogut will not be back for the next one, March 27 in Orlando, but the game at the BC April 13? I bet Bogut can't wait.
Bucks a game and-a-half behind the Bulls: The Bulls won in Oklahoma City tonight behind inevitable Rookie of the Year Derrick Rose. This means the Bucks slid 1-1/2 games behind them with the loss to the Magic and are now virtually tied with the Charlotte Bobcats for 9th. The good news is that the Bulls play the Lakers Saturday. The Bucks sorely need a win against the Trailblazers Saturday to make that Bulls-Lakers game matter.
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 Charlie Bell's shot clock-expiring "prayer" Sunday to kill the Celtics chances of stealing Sunday's game from the Bucks certainly got the attention of Bucks fans who thought the Bucks playoff hopes were dying.
And now that Charlie's got our attention. ...
In this season of extended injury absences for Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd, the availability of Charlie Bell as he battled ankle injuries has also been a big factor. Bell played through his ankle problems during Redd's 14-game absence early in the season, then sat out six games when Redd returned.
But Bell's ankle problems lingered through January while Bogut tried to get his lower back in playing shape. Bell missed 5 games in January and saw limited playing time in 7 others. Bell and Bogut were in street clothes when Redd injured his knee Jan. 27 against Sacramento.
In the 24 games this season that Charlie either missed (due to ankle problems) or played less than 20 minutes, the Bucks won 9 and lost 15. Here's how that 9-15 mark breaks down: (Source: basketball-reference.com)
12 missed gms - Bucks 5-7 (they are 26-31 overall when Bell plays)
12 gms playing less than 20 mins - Bucks 4-8 (22-23 when Bell plays 20 mins or more)
One of Charlie's roles is to back up Redd at shooting guard, which does impact his playing time, of course. He also started in Redd's place for those 14 games in November, playing at least 20 mins or more in every game except for a loss in Boston. The Bucks were 5-8 in those 20+min games. Bogut missed three of them with a mashed knee. Charlie Villanueva missed a Denver-Utah road trip. All of the losses were to teams locked for the playoffs with the exception of a loss at the BC Nov. 8 to the Suns.
When Bell comes off the bench and plays 20 mins or more - Bucks are 17-15. He has come off the bench every game since Redd hurt his knee. They are 9-13 in those games, but 9-11 when Charlie is getting his 20+mins.
When Redd starts and Charlie gets his 20 or more - Bucks are 8-4. They are 7-3 in the games Bogut played and 5-2 with the full rotation and Charlie getting 20+mins. A healthy Bucks team with Charlie playing meaningful minutes was a good team. There is hope for next season.
Remarkably, this isn't tricky trivia that unravels when linked to other player injuries. (In fact, the Bucks were 6-3 this season when everyone in the rotation played but Redd -- a little known Bucks fact that GM John Hammond isn't quick to publicize, and won't.) Charlie's positive impact on whether the Bucks won or lost has occurred with Redd and without Redd, and the trend didn't ride on Bogut's health -- it held true prior to Bogut's back problems and continued through Bogut's struggles to play in January.
12 games Jan. 6 - Jan. 27: Charlie played 31 mins Jan. 5 against Toronto, scored 11 off the bench (hitting 3 from downtown) and the Bucks won at home. It was the second game Bogut missed because of his bad back. Charlie's minutes dived below the 20 mark the next game (vs. Philly) and stayed down as the ankle problems returned. He also missed 5 games during this stretch and would not get his 20+mins of PT until he got 28 in a tough road loss in Indiana Jan. 28. (That game stands out in my mind for one reason: suddenly, the Bucks looked scrappy again.)
The Bucks were 5-7 in games Jan. 6-27, playing 5 without Bell, 9 without Bogut.
Some of the losses were among the most regrettable of the season: A loss in Minnesota in which Bogut did play but the Bucks gave up a host of 3-pointers in the 4th quarter with Charlie (16 mins) on the bench; a loss in LA to the Clippers, same formula (Bell-16 mins); a loss at home to T-Wolves, Charlie's first game back (Bell-15 mins) after missing 3 games due to his ankle and the first game both Bogut and Redd missed.
Jan. 6-27 was a rough 12-game stretch for the Bucks, no doubt about that, accounting for half of the 24 "Bell factor" games. This leaves a 4-8 record in the rest of the Bell factor games. Now let's look at those 12 games:
Nov. 1, home opener against Toronto: Bell played just 13 mins as the Bucks lost 91-87. Defensive breakdowns in the 4th, when Bell was on the bench, and bad shot selection were contributing factors. Luke Ridnour did not play.
Nov. 7, loss in Boston: Bell started for Redd and played just 16 minutes, shooting 1-6 from the floor.
Nov. 29 - Dec. 11: Redd returns, Bell recovers the ankle for 6 games. Bucks go 2-4, losses to the Cavs and all three games of a West road trip, including a loss in Golden State. Lots of poor defense on the trip, not much good to report. The Lakers embarass the Bucks.
Dec. 13, vs. the Pacers: Bell's first game back, plays 14 mins. Bucks struggle, but blow the game open in the final five minutes.
Dec. 23 vs. Utah: A sloppy game the Bucks can't seem to get control of until late in the 4th, but they do. Jazz play without Mehmet Okur. Bell plays 12 mins, takes one shot. Bogut plays 38 and shoots only 7 times. Utah coach Jerry Sloan criticizes his team for "playing streetball out there." Bucks win 94-86.
Dec. 29 vs. Pistons: This is the game in which Skiles benches the starters in the 3rd quarter. Bell misses game with a bruised knee. The Bucks then go to Texas for two, and Bell finds plenty of PT against the Spurs (25 mins, 11 pts) and Rockets (31 mins, 15 pts). This is where the trend becomes apparent -- when Bell is on the floor late in the game, the Bucks look good and they often win. He makes key plays against the Spurs in the 4th as the Bucks win; Bucks play the Rockets tough but lose. Skiles is happy.
March 3 vs. Nets at home: Inexplicably, Bell only plays 12 minutes. Bell and Keith Bogans, two good defenders, are left on the bench for almost the entire 4th quarter. They sit and watch as the Nets bomb their way back from an 11-point deficit with 4 minutes left to win, 99-95. Notice how Skiles has not made this mistake since, although he did play Ridnour and Sessions together for a stretch in the 4th quarter against the Knicks. The Bucks lost that game too.
If you've read this far, ... thanks (and what would I do without basketball reference?). A Charlie Bell factor has emerged, not independent of other factors in this injury-jarred season, but a common denominator nonetheless: There is a correlation between Charlie Bell's playing time and the Bucks success. The Bucks are typically in a better position to win if Charlie Bell, a decent shooter and one of the Bucks top defenders, is healthy and playing solid minutes.
Whether Charlie starts or not may not matter (it's not clear). The Bucks have done well recently in the 2nd quarter thanks to Charlie's scoring off the bench. The trend, however, is in how much Skiles uses Bell throughout the game -- especially in the 4th quarter when the Bell factor has sometimes decided the Bucks fate.
When Charlie's playing big minutes in the 4th, as he did against the Celtics Sunday and in San Antonio in late December, the Bucks have won games. And who can forget his blitz in New Orleans that gave the Bucks a golden opportunity to steal the game? Those are just three of the many examples.
When Charlie's not on the court in the 4th providing strong defense, timely shots and smart basketball plays, the Bucks have blown games -- at minimum 4 of the Bell factor games I've looked at here. The record in Charlie's favor is strong, too strong to ignore. And now that he's healthy, Scott Skiles is no longer one to ignore it.
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