The Charlie Bell Factor: A common denominator to Bucks success

Charlie Bell defends Nick Young of the Wizards in the Bucks Feb. 28 win at the BC.Charlie Bell's shot clock-expiring "prayer" Sunday to kill the Celtics chances of stealing Sunday's game from the Bucks certainly got the attention of Bucks fans who thought the Bucks playoff hopes were dying. 

And now that Charlie's got our attention. ...

In this season of extended injury absences for Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd, the availability of Charlie Bell as he battled ankle injuries has also been a big factor. Bell played through his ankle problems during Redd's 14-game absence early in the season, then sat out six games when Redd returned. 

But Bell's ankle problems lingered through January while Bogut tried to get his lower back in playing shape. Bell missed 5 games in January and saw limited playing time in 7 others. Bell and Bogut were in street clothes when Redd injured his knee Jan. 27 against Sacramento. 

In the 24 games this season that Charlie either missed (due to ankle problems) or played less than 20 minutes, the Bucks won 9 and lost 15. Here's how that 9-15 mark breaks down: (Source: basketball-reference.com)

12 missed gms - Bucks 5-7 (they are 26-31 overall when Bell plays)

12 gms playing less than 20 mins - Bucks 4-8 (22-23 when Bell plays 20 mins or more) 

One of Charlie's roles is to back up Redd at shooting guard, which does impact his playing time, of course. He also started in Redd's place for those 14 games in November, playing at least 20 mins or more in every game except for a loss in Boston. The Bucks were 5-8 in those 20+min games. Bogut missed three of them with a mashed knee. Charlie Villanueva missed a Denver-Utah road trip. All of the losses were to teams locked for the playoffs with the exception of a loss at the BC Nov. 8 to the Suns.

When Bell comes off the bench and plays 20 mins or more - Bucks are 17-15. He has come off the bench every game since Redd hurt his knee. They are 9-13 in those games, but 9-11 when Charlie is getting his 20+mins.

When Redd starts and Charlie gets his 20 or more - Bucks are 8-4. They are 7-3 in the games Bogut played and 5-2 with the full rotation and Charlie getting 20+mins. A healthy Bucks team with Charlie playing meaningful minutes was a good team. There is hope for next season.

Remarkably, this isn't tricky trivia that unravels when linked to other player injuries. (In fact, the Bucks were 6-3 this season when everyone in the rotation played but Redd -- a little known Bucks fact that GM John Hammond isn't quick to publicize, and won't.) Charlie's positive impact on whether the Bucks won or lost has occurred with Redd and without Redd, and the trend didn't ride on Bogut's health -- it held true prior to Bogut's back problems and continued through Bogut's struggles to play in January.

12 games Jan. 6 - Jan. 27: Charlie played 31 mins Jan. 5 against Toronto, scored 11 off the bench (hitting 3 from downtown) and the Bucks won at home. It was the second game Bogut missed because of his bad back. Charlie's minutes dived below the 20 mark the next game (vs. Philly) and stayed down as the ankle problems returned. He also missed 5 games during this stretch and would not get his 20+mins of PT until he got 28 in a tough road loss in Indiana Jan. 28. (That game stands out in my mind for one reason: suddenly, the Bucks looked scrappy again.)

The Bucks were 5-7 in games Jan. 6-27, playing 5 without Bell, 9 without Bogut.

Some of the losses were among the most regrettable of the season: A loss in Minnesota in which Bogut did play but the Bucks gave up a host of 3-pointers in the 4th quarter with Charlie (16 mins) on the bench; a loss in LA to the Clippers, same formula (Bell-16 mins); a loss at home to T-Wolves, Charlie's first game back (Bell-15 mins) after missing 3 games due to his ankle and the first game both Bogut and Redd missed.

Jan. 6-27 was a rough 12-game stretch for the Bucks, no doubt about that, accounting for half of the 24 "Bell factor" games. This leaves a 4-8 record in the rest of the Bell factor games. Now let's look at those 12 games:

Nov. 1, home opener against Toronto: Bell played just 13 mins as the Bucks lost 91-87. Defensive breakdowns in the 4th, when Bell was on the bench, and bad shot selection were contributing factors. Luke Ridnour did not play.

Nov. 7, loss in Boston: Bell started for Redd and played just 16 minutes, shooting 1-6 from the floor.

Nov. 29 - Dec. 11: Redd returns, Bell recovers the ankle for 6 games. Bucks go 2-4, losses to the Cavs and all three games of a West road trip, including a loss in Golden State. Lots of poor defense on the trip, not much good to report. The Lakers embarass the Bucks.

Dec. 13, vs. the Pacers: Bell's first game back, plays 14 mins. Bucks struggle, but blow the game open in the final five minutes.

Dec. 23 vs. Utah: A sloppy game the Bucks can't seem to get control of until late in the 4th, but they do. Jazz play without Mehmet Okur. Bell plays 12 mins, takes one shot. Bogut plays 38 and shoots only 7 times. Utah coach Jerry Sloan criticizes his team for "playing streetball out there." Bucks win 94-86.

Dec. 29 vs. Pistons: This is the game in which Skiles benches the starters in the 3rd quarter. Bell misses game with a bruised knee. The Bucks then go to Texas for two, and Bell finds plenty of PT against the Spurs (25 mins, 11 pts) and Rockets (31 mins, 15 pts). This is where the trend becomes apparent -- when Bell is on the floor late in the game, the Bucks look good and they often win. He makes key plays against the Spurs in the 4th as the Bucks win; Bucks play the Rockets tough but lose. Skiles is happy.

March 3 vs. Nets at home: Inexplicably, Bell only plays 12 minutes. Bell and Keith Bogans, two good defenders, are left on the bench for almost the entire 4th quarter. They sit and watch as the Nets bomb their way back from an 11-point deficit with 4 minutes left to win, 99-95. Notice how Skiles has not made this mistake since, although he did play Ridnour and Sessions together for a stretch in the 4th quarter against the Knicks. The Bucks lost that game too.

If you've read this far, ... thanks (and what would I do without basketball reference?). A Charlie Bell factor has emerged, not independent of other factors in this injury-jarred season, but a common denominator nonetheless: There is a correlation between Charlie Bell's playing time and the Bucks success. The Bucks are typically in a better position to win if Charlie Bell, a decent shooter and one of the Bucks top defenders, is healthy and playing solid minutes. 

Whether Charlie starts or not may not matter (it's not clear). The Bucks have done well recently in the 2nd quarter thanks to Charlie's scoring off the bench. The trend, however, is in how much Skiles uses Bell throughout the game -- especially in the 4th quarter when the Bell factor has sometimes decided the Bucks fate. 

When Charlie's playing big minutes in the 4th, as he did against the Celtics Sunday and in San Antonio in late December, the Bucks have won games. And who can forget his blitz in New Orleans that gave the Bucks a golden opportunity to steal the game? Those are just three of the many examples.

When Charlie's not on the court in the 4th providing strong defense, timely shots and smart basketball plays, the Bucks have blown games -- at minimum 4 of the Bell factor games I've looked at here. The record in Charlie's favor is strong, too strong to ignore. And now that he's healthy, Scott Skiles is no longer one to ignore it.

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About J.D. Mo

J.D. Mo is the perpetrator of The Bob Boozer Jinx, your sportsbubbler.com Milwaukee Bucks blog.

About This Blog

I'm J.D. Mo, and welcome to my Bucks blog. I've been a Bucks junkie since 1977 when Nellie drafted Marques and the team was Green and Growing -- until a bizarre lawnmowing accident robbed it of its power forward, Dave Meyers. I knew then that truths stranger than fiction can happen to the Milwaukee Bucks, and probably will. This view rifles through much of what you'll find on the BBJ, along with commentary on Bucks news, fun NBA research and other interesting stuff from the Bucks-i-verse ... as well a cast of characters from around the NBA to liven things up around here, and, above all, keep the rock moving.
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