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June 2009 - Posts
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There's a part of me that appreciates when the Bucks beat writers fall short and a part of me that appreciates even more when they hit the three. Over the weekend, JSOnline's Tom Enlund drained it from downtown with his rundown of the current state of the Bucks roster. Articles like it create much less work for yours truly, which I thoroughly appreciate.
Now, let's review the current state of the Bucks roster after RJ trade and last week's draft:
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13 players under contract, 15 including the rookies, at a cost of $63-65 mill.
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3 free agents -- Ramon Sessions, Ersan Ilyasova and Charlie "Chuck-it" Villanueva
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barring more trades, about $6-8 million available under the estimated $71 million luxury tax threshold to sign them
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A potential core of Andrew Bogut, Michael Redd, Ramon Sessions, Charlie Bell, Luc Mbah a Moute, Amir Johnson, Ersan Ilyasova and Joe Alexander - plus two rookies and aging bigs
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A team with another trade or two in mind
The PLAYERS
Luke "Frodo" Ridnour - Almost sure to be traded, leaving the task of leading the Bucks to the promised land in the good hands of Ramon "Sam" Sessions
newcomers Kurt Thomas and Bruce Bowen - Trade bait to teams looking for veteran help in the playoffs. There's very little about Kurt Thomas, however, that is interesting, other than the possibility that he could take PT away from a younger player. Bowen could help the Bucks at small forward, but, unfortunately may retire realizing as I'm sure he does that he is trade bait in Milwaukee. Plus, half of Bowen's $4.1 million salary is not guaranteed, which would give the Bucks about $8 million to play with in resigning free agents.
free agent Ramon "Sam" Sessions - If and when Ridnour is traded, I'll probably have to stop calling him Sam. I don't think too many people were getting it anyway. The Bucks will resign Sessions and go into the season with Sessions and Brandon Jennings as their point guards.
free agent Ersan Ilyasova - Bucks will sign 21-year-old Ersan, a 6'9" forward who's made the most of his two years abroad after playing the 2006-07 season with the Bucks. Ilyasova had his strongest year as a pro this past season, and was EuroLeague player of the month in October, doing it all for Regal FC Barcelona. He also finished strong, leading Barca to the Euroleague Final Four, where they ended up 3rd. The Bucks will need his help on the front line, which looks pretty shaky now without Richard Jefferson, and with Chuck-it Charlie almost sure to leave in free agency. Check out these Ersan highlights:
free agent Charlie Villanueva - Chuck-it Charlie won't be a Buck next season. If he is, we've all been misled by Bucks management.
newcomer Amir Johnson - JSOnline got the Amir bug today with "Young forward shows promise", but what else can you really say? Yes, he's shown promise. Yes, the Pistons gave up on him. Amir, 22, is a long 6'9", blocks shots, rebounds, does some good things on D ... but he's only played about a quarter per game in the last two seasons. He's the kind of help Bogut needs in the paint, a player who'll do the dirty work and free up, say, Ersan, to roam around and knock down some jumpers. His presence means less PT for Francisco Elson, Kurt Thomas and Malik Allen, and that's probably a good thing.
Luc Mbah a Moute - Probably happy about the Amir Johnson pick-up and happy Bogut should be back to good health. Probably not so pleased about the Bucks trading team leader Jefferson. Mbah a Moute may be called on to perform miracles this season in an increased role.
Joe Alexander - The front line looks pretty weak, if counting on big improvements from Joe. I'm not ready to write him off just yet, but he turned in a D-grade season in his rookie year. Better to pin your hopes on a core frontline of Mbah a Moute, Ilyasova, Bogut and Amir Johnson. Hopefully Joe can develop as a strong, competent contributor in that mix.
rookie Brandon Jennings - Rookie point guard. Sessions' backup until further notice. Allegedly raw. Allegedly more gifted than some drafted ahead of him.
rookie Jodie Meeks - 2nd round pick, good shooter, behind Michael Redd and Charlie Bell on the depth chart. Probably be new BFF with Salim Stoudamire, who'll be in his vicinity on the Bucks bench. D-League?
newcomer Salim Stoudamire - No Bucks fans, just because he's 6'1" doesn't mean that Salim's a point guard. He's a little shooting guard who just might find himself competing with Meeks for a spot on the roster, depending on subsequent Bucks moves. Had a decent rookie year coming off Atlanta's bench, playing with Tyronn Lue and Royal Ivey, a couple of bygone Bucks. Why another guard from Atlanta? I don't know. Bucks picked up his contract in April.
Francisco Elson and Malik Allen - Trade add-ons. The Bucks now have 5 players - Ridnour, Thomas, Bowen, Elson and Allen - representing $17.5 million in 2009-10 expiring contracts. That's a lot of trade fodder, with many teams drooling at the 2010 free agent class -- and Bucks GM Hammond pleased with his options. Five expirings = plenty of options up through the Feb. trading deadline.
Michael Redd - Looking less and less like he fits in here anymore, coming back from knee surgery and drawing $17.1 million salary, but still the starting shooting guard. It'll be interesting to see if Redd draws any trade interest but I won't hold my breath this season. I did that last season -- it didn't work and I ended up with high blood pressure. With RJ gone and Chuck-it Charlie out the door, I see visions of Redd hogging the ball, trying to pick up the scoring slack all by himself while the Bucks lose and lose again. Ball movement Mike, ball movement. And Dee-fense.
Charlie Bell - The less Redd plays, the more Charlie Bell and his tough D are in the game, and that's good for the Bucks. Bum ankles hampered him last year, and he still put together a decent season. Coulda been better, though, and better health from Bell will help the Bucks improve. Can also guard forwards and shoot the 3, of course.
Andrew Bogut - This is Bogut's Bucks team now. The Bucks will need their center to pick up the scoring this season and to fill the leadership void created by the RJ trade. A midrange shot will help in the former area. 2009-10 would be the year for Bogut to turn in his first All-Star season.
I think that's everybody, isn't it? Am I forgetting somebody.
Oh, Dan Gadzuric - Salary's up to $6.749 mill this season. After 2009-10, there's still one more season left on his abominable contract.
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 If you haven't checked out Sportsbubbler's Bucks center, now's a good time to check it out. Dan and Jim's draft day work is downright comprehensive, complete with video interviews of many of the players the Bucks worked out, including, of course ...
a Draft workout interview with Bucks first-round pick Brandon Jennings.
Journal Sentinel's Bucks page has more, featuring Saturday's extended feature on Jennings. For once, I like how Bucks GM John Hammond is describing a management decision:
"We had a real fear on this guy, and the fear was that we don't take him. Because we really thought in watching him, he had the chance to be the most special of all of them."
In other words, Hammond and coach Scott Skiles made a gut decision and passed on the more polished players from NCAA basketball machines, such as Ty Lawson. Not such a bad idea, Skiles of course knowing how difficult the transition to the NBA is for point guards, having gone through it himself in the late 1980s out of Michigan State. Europe might be better preparation in some ways. Here are a couple:
He received much less hype from the draft matrons, midwives and handmaidens (Jay Bilas, Chad Ford et al) than players like Jonny Flynn or Lawson.
He never got the opportunity to be BMOC or break the NCAA's precious rules, all those wonders the college basketball experience offers.
Italian women, enuff said.
You'll find more post draft interviews (Hammond, Skiles, Jennings) here.
And here's Sham's unnecessarily long 2009 draft diary, complete with a tale of drunkenness and cruelty.
I have to admit, I'm like Sham in that I don't watch enough college basketball to really sink my two cents in about the draft. Much like our fan commentator, Christopher Peppas, I was surprised when DeJuan Blair fell farther and farther, and farther, and then even farther, until the Spurs picked him at #37 in the 2nd round. Lucky break for Blair in my book. Sure, he lost millions but now gets to play for Pop Popovich and knock around in the paint with Tim Duncan. And win games. The Spurs are getting better with every move they make this offseason.
 Even more surprising was how far Patty Mills fell (#55 by the Portland Trail Blazers) Mills received rave reviews from Jason Kidd and Chris Paul playing with Andrew Bogut and Australia Boomers in the 2008 Olympics. He then dazzled Stephon Curry and Davidson in the NIT. In that Davidson-St. Mary's game -- won by Mills and St. Mary's -- Mills outplayed Curry and was, I thought, the best player on the court. I think the Trail Blazers found a great point guard in Mills, one who should challenge Steve Blake for PT right away. I think he's better than Flynn or Lawson, et al, maybe Jennings too.
The fact that Jerrell McNeal wasn't drafted is a big surprise. One draft ranking site -- one of far too many -- the yahoo board, had McNeal ranked right behind Jodie Weeks in its shooting guard rankings (Meeks 13th, McNeal 14th). Why McNeal bombed out of the draft altogether is a bit of a mystery at the moment ... I wasn't expecting that.
 Speaking of Jodie Meeks, the Bucks #41 pick -- I'm glad they picked a guy who can shoot. Obviously, with the addition of Salim Stoudamire and now Weeks pick-up, Hammond and Skiles are well aware that the Bucks aren't going to win too many games shooting the way they did last season. Does this mean the end for Michael Redd? No, but a team that just traded their top 3-point shooter to San Antonio and has its starting 2-guard coming off of knee surgery ought to be concerned about its ability to stretch defenses -- and the Bucks are concerned. (And OUCH!!, Charlie Villanueva's 20-80 grand finish in the last 20 games is still ringing in the BC rafters). Meeks best bet at finding PT will be if Redd is slowed at the start of the season. I can't see Skiles playing a rookie while Charlie Bell and his great defense sits on the bench.
But the Bucks certainly have a lot of guards in the fold, don't they? Redd, Ridnour, Bell, Bowen (a F/G), Stoudamire, Jennings and Meeks. That's seven, eight if the Bucks resign Sessions. Something tells me another trade may be in the works. Also, somebody could be headed for the D-League.
Will the Bucks go into the season with Sessions, Ridnour and Jennings at point? It's possible, I suppose, but doesn't seem too likely. Stoudamire is more a shooting guard, down on the depth chart behind Redd and Bell, along with rookie Meeks.
I think this offseason has some more surprises in store for Bucks faithful. ...
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If you liked the direction the Bucks were headed in last season in Scott Skiles and Richard Jefferson's first seasons in Milwaukee, yesterday's trade isn't going to make you run out and buy Bucks tickets.
If you think the Bucks should have been rebuilding last season and trying to deal Michael Redd rather than adding new stars to a bad mix, you've got to wonder if Bucks GM Hammond and Scott Skiles were serious in the comments today about the trade. This is about winning they tell us, and take issue with national media labelling the trade "a salary dump."
Hammond would like to refer to the trade as a move for "roster flexibility" not financial flexibility.
Me, I think the Bucks have traded the wrong guy -- again, just as they did last summer when Mo Williams and Dez Mason were sent packing for Luke Ridnour and Damon Jones. Picking up a 22-year-old big man in Amir Johnson for journeyman Fabricio Oberto makes it go down a bit easier. However, it is a bit of surprise that Detroit gave up on Johnson after his 4th season.
If the Bucks traded Richard Jefferson so they could sign Charlie Villanueva, this becomes a very bad deal and a bad decision.
Hammond wants us to believe the move was part of the Bucks new winning philosophy:
"I don't want that message to get out there - this is a step back and be patient."
According to Bucks center Andrew Bogut, the Bucks are in future building mode:
“Sad to see RJ go," Bogut twittered. "He was a fun guy to be around and could play. We are building for the future, slow and steady. Patience grasshopper."
Not to be impatient 'Drew, but are you sure Hammond has picked a direction here? And how many years is this going to take?
Ball Don't Lie's Dwyer is still scratching his head about why the Bucks acquired Jefferson in the first place.
ESPN's John Hollinger's headline says it all, or does it? While it's nice to think that RJ could put the Spurs in "in the title hunt", let's not forget that Hollinger and his player efficiency rating system trashed RJ last season, arguing that his game had drastically declined. Maybe this new take on RJ is evidence that Hollinger doesn't really believe his statistical rating system. Or simply more evidence that ESPN's NBA side is a mess.
Nobody seems to think Bowen is going to stick around and be a Buck for very long, and will likely try to find his way back to San Antonio.
Trade bait? Now that the trade has sunk in, I'm beginning to view both Bowen and Kurt Thomas as trade bait. Either player might help open the door on a Luke Ridnour trade or other moves, especially if the Bucks do the expected in the draft tomorrow and take the best point guard available.
Hammond still undecided on Charlie Villanueva: JSOnline is reporting that Bucks GM Hammond "indicated" Wednesday that he was still undecided on whether to file their qualifying offer to Charlie V. The Bucks, however, are expected to tender qualifying offers to Ramon Sessions and Ersan Ilyasova, the daily reported. Here's the exact wording:
"The Bucks are expected to make qualifying offers to restricted free agents Ramon Sessions and Ersan Ilyasova, each in the $1 million range. But Hammond indicated no decision had been made yet on whether to make the $4.6 million qualifying offer required for power forward Charlie Villanueva.
If the Bucks do not make the offer by Tuesday, Villanueva will become an unrestricted free agent."
That's good news about Sessions and Ilyasova, but if John Hammond really hasn't decided whether Charlie V is in the team's plans or not, I'm concerned that the GM doesn't understand the type of player his coach likes. It's time to admit that Charlie isn't in the team's plans and let him move on. If Charlie's here, there'd be no PT for Ilyasova.
I tend to think the decision on Charlie has been made and Hammond's just playing it close to the vest as usual, keeping those "options open" as his mantra goes. Charlie is as good as gone.
And I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Bucks passed on the point guards and took the best forward available, even if Hill is gone by the time the 10th pick rolls around. Looks like Blair will still be there.
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 With only 11 players signed for next season and very little room under the luxury tax threshold to fill a full roster, Bucks GM John Hammond did what he had to do -- and traded forward Richard Jefferson. RJ went to the Spurs today for backup forward/center Kurt Thomas (age 36) and the expiring (nonguaranteed 2009-10) contracts of defensive specialist Bruce Bowen (age 38) and Fabricio Oberto, another backup big.
What's that you say? Couldn't the Bucks have done a little better in trading perhaps their most marketable healthy player? Well, Hammond wasn't done. He then dealt Oberto to the Pistons for forward/center Amir Johnson, Journal Sentinel reported a couple of hours ago. That's better.
True, Johnson's not a bonafide starter in the NBA but is just 22 years old and has already made some strides. Unfortunately, he wasn't coming along fast enough in Detroit, where his slow progress (as well as that of forward Jason Maxiell) was a contributing factor to the Pistons plunge to mediocrity last season.
Here's the Bucks press release and comments from GM Hammond:
“The trade we made today provides us with much needed options in both the short and long-term planning for our franchise. We acquired a young, long, athletic forward in Amir Johnson, along with two proven, tough-minded veterans in Bruce Bowen and Kurt Thomas. The trade also provides us with additional opportunities, both now and in the future, to consider adding more pieces to our roster.”
At the end of the day, the Bucks got older but added two pretty good big men, Thomas and Johnson; about $6 million in payroll relief; and one of the best defenders in the league, Bowen.
Bowen's $4.1 million contract, however, is a team option that the Bucks don't have to pick up. This means that Hammond has created enough room to pay their draft picks (the 10th pick is set to make $1.8 mill; the 2nd round pick would make the league minimum, about $800,000) and Ramon Sessions AND Charlie Villanueva -- though it still seems unlikely that the Bucks will sign both.
With defense at a premium for coach Scott Skiles and Michael Redd a big question mark coming back from knee surgery, it's in the Bucks best interest to keep a guy like Bowen around -- 38 years-old and all -- rather than invest in a player like Charlie V who probably isn't in the long range plan. Bowen, a forward-guard, brings a lot of toughness and can guard nearly anybody on the court -- forwards who were RJ's covers as well as guards that would be Redd's covers. There's no doubt that Bowen is a Scott Skiles kind of player who would be a great fit in the new Bucks culture. He'd certainly fill Jeffferson's leadership role and be an even better defensive coach on the floor.
For me, the bottom line is that, if you had to trade Richard Jefferson, far better to bring in a guy like Bowen who can help continue the work with young players like Luc Mbah a Moute and Ramon Sessions than it would be to cut Bowen loose. Veteran leadership, as we saw in the Finals, has great value in the NBA.
Here's how the Bucks payroll looked prior to the deal with Detroit -- $62.8 mill before the deal for Johnson. The only real difference there is that the Bucks are on the hook to pay Johnson next season, while they could have cut Oberto loose to create more cap relief.
The salary cap and luxury thresholds haven't been released yet, but it's safe to assume that the luxury tax limit will be static -- about the same $71.2 million it was last season, although the new limit may be slightly lower.
Add the salaries for the draft picks and the Bucks are left with a 15-man roster and about $5 or $6 million to pay Sessions OR Villanueva -- plus flexibility with Bowen and Salim Stoudamire's non-guaranteed contracts.
Here are the players involved and their money, and some notes for review:
RJ was set to make $14.2 million next season and $15.2 mill the following season.
Kurt Thomas - $3.8 mill next season.
Bruce Bowen - $4.1 mill next season, not guaranteed.
Amir Johnson - $3.66 mill next season.
Bucks current payroll: $62.8 million, with about $5 mill (Bowen and Salim Stoudamire) the Bucks can opt out of.
Cost of the 2009-10 draft picks: $2.6 million
Estimated room under luxury tax limit: $5-6 million
Estimated room under luxury tax limit if Bowen is released: $9-10 million
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The 2009 playoffs are roaring by, much like my vacation ... we're only 50-some games into Brewers season and the NBA just might finish by Father's Day, which is next to unheard of.
A preview of the Lakers-Magic Final is in order for these pages, and I'm sure you're dying to read another one. That's why the makers of this blog have bestowed upon we sportsbubbler bloggers with the ability to make links. Here's Ball Don't Lie's generally outstanding Finals preview, where you'll find this curious note: Rafer Alston is "no Aaron Brooks. ..."
Say what? I think Alston's experience is a plus for the Magic, as it was against the Cavaliers and Mo Williams, whose lack of playoff experience showed in the East Finals (call it the ex-Bucks of the Michael Redd era factor). Brooks is an up and coming young point guard, no doubt about that, and he helped bring out the worst in Lakers starting point guard Derrick Fisher ... which brings me to the following ...
The "I used to like Derrick Fisher" file. Playoffs talk among NBA fans in Milwaukee (yes, we're out here and just might see if we can get the Brewers game off one of the seven or eight TVs at your favorite sports bar) usually come around to Fisher, a reaction to the Laker point guard's brutal flagrant foul on Luis Scola during the Lakers-Rockets series. What's a bullish point guard doing playing football with the Rockets power forward? You'd have to ask Fisher, whose lucky he only received a one-game suspension. Fisher's past his prime and has obviously resorted to thugery, an advantage for the Magic in the matchups. Altson is quicker than Denver Point guard Chauncey Billups and should be able to do a better job of exploiting Fisher.
Alston may want to consult the work of super genius Sam "I Am" Cassell in last year's finals. Though Cassell saw only limited action in the Celtics-Lakers series, he made the most of his minutes, going right at Fisher on two consecutive plays, popping jumpers in his face, laughing all the way. While it may not have set the tone for the Celtics 4-2 Finals win (that was Kevin Garnett's doing), it did seem to show how little respect the Celtics had for some of Kobe's complementary pieces -- and just might have had a profound affect on Fisher's psyche.
I fully expect the Lakers to start the chippiness right away in tonight's series opener.
Prediction: Lakers in 7. Kobe and Pau Gasol seem to have the taste of last year's loss to the Celtics written in their near constant 2009 playoffs scowls. The rest of the Lakers? Question marks and mismatches give the advantage to the Magic in most other areas, with Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum having their hands full with the Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis. I'd expect Hedo Turkoglu to get the Gasol assignment, but we'll see how long it takes the Magic to find ways to put Gasol in the hands of Howard. Trevor Ariza gives the Lakers a nice edge off teh bench. This looks to be a great series between two well-matched teams. The Lakers home court advantage tips it their way.
I also just have a feeling that, love it or hate it, this is Kobe's year.
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