October 2009 - Posts

• Eastern Conference Preview

  Posted Oct 28 2009, 03:30 PM by J.D. Mo

  The NBA Eastern Conference got better in the offseason, and is probably stronger top to bottom than the West. Our Bucks, unfortunately did not improve for the short term. This is the inescapable Bucks reality as the 2009-10 season gets underway.

  Playoffs? Let's not even talk about it. There are four new forwards, a rookie point guard and a recovering Michael Redd to work in and around depending on his mood. Coach Scott Skiles has his work cut out for him. The Bucks need to simply be young, play defense, grab rebounds and loose balls and keep the ball moving on offense -- and forget about the scoreboard.

  While we wait for the Bucks to sort things out, sit back and enjoy the rest. The top of the East will be a titanic fight for dominance and home court advantage between the Cavs, Celtics and Magic, all of whom made major upgrades after winning 59+ games last season. Miami, Chicago, Philly and Atlanta will compete for the coveted 4th seed. The 8th playoff spot is once again up for grabs, with the Raptors the most improved team of the rest.

  Here's how I see the East stacking up:

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers:  Replaced Ben Wallace with Shaquille O'Neal, Wally Szczerbiak with one of the best three-ballers in the league, Anthony Parker, and added Jamario Moon to their rotation. The best player in the world and coach Mike Brown's dedication to defense and rebounding give the Cavs the night-in, night-out consistency needed to win the regular season. They'll win with Shaq or Zydrunas Ilgauskas, they'll win with both, and they'll win with neither. When the Cavs' three-headed monster (Shaq, Big Z and Andy Varejao) is in the lineup, good luck grabbing a rebound against this team. The key for the Cavs is to get the all three healthy into the playoffs, obviously.

  The Cavs backcourt problems should work themselves out. Three years in Milwaukee did little to prepare Mo Williams for the playoffs, and it showed. Mo's running mate, defensive stopper Delonte West, has had some trouble (guns, booze and who knows what else). For now, Delonte's lost his starting spot to Parker, but Mike Brown likes him on the court: Last season Delonte was second only to Lebron in mins per game. (Note: Opening the season without Delonte West, the Cavs are 0-2, with losses to the Celtics and the new and improved Raptors.

  The Cavs in the offseason went after Hakim Warrick, who opted for the Bucks (should we assume Bucks GM John Hammond used that iou Cavs GM Danny Ferry gave him after the Mo trade?) then signed Leon Powe from the Celtics. Powe is working his way back from knee surgery. It'll be Shaq, Big Z, Andy and Leon Powe too! come playoff time. A lot of tonnage to throw at Dwight Howard and Kevin Garnett. Keep an eye out for Jamario Moon -- he plays like a rabid 76er and shoots better than most of the Philly roster.

  2. Orlando Magic: Was Hedo Turkoglu a small or big forward? No matter, the Nets handed the Magic Vince Carter in a salary dump and they swapped Hedo to Toronto in a complex 4-team deal. Then the Magic raided the Western conference, signing a rugged young PF in Brandon Bass (Dallas free agent) and a solid small forward to come of the bench in Matt Barnes (Suns). Bass would have been a great complement to Andrew Bogut (same goes for the Cavs' Powe). Now Bass'll do the same for Dwight Howard. Carter isn't as explosive as he used to be but he's smarter, more versatile and shoots well enough from 3-land (38% last season). VC likes to pass, too.

  Howard, entering his sixth season, is the best and most durable center in the world, and was probably a cat in a previous life. He is clearly showing signs of slipping: Last season Howard missed three games!, the first DNP's of his entire career. Forward Rashard Lewis is an all-star and maybe point guard Jameer Nelson is too, recovered nicely from last season's ankle problems. Swingman Mickael Pietrus only adds to the athleticism, depth and versatility of a team whose time to win a title has come. If the nationally televised whupping last week of a very good Hawks team was any indication, the Magic can't wait to get this season going.

  3. Boston Celtics:  I don't see Doc Rivers riding workhorses Ray Allen and Paul Pierce as much as he did last year. Pierce in particular seemed drained by playoff time. But that was last season, when the only team with a more grueling schedule was the Bucks, and Ray and Pierce looked as exhausted as Richard Jefferson did by late December. I expect the Celtics to take things a little slower this time, considering that Kevin Garnett is coming back from knee surgery and this is likely the last hurrah for the Hall of Fame Three (Ray and Pierce will be free agents next summer). Kendrick Perkins, Rajon Rondo and Eddie House and his great shooting are still around and so's Big Baby Davis (though Big Baby's out for thumb surgery and disciplinary reasons).

  And who is this guy? This Celtics crew has been around so long and accumulated so much NBA experience that they probably don't care one bit whether they get along or not. Sheed's tough, likes to rebound and play D, and is a nice post presence if he stays near the basket, which he lost interest in doing in Detroit. Last thing the Celtics need is Sheed hanging around out in 3-point land and chuck up shots like he was Charlie Villanueva. If I remember right, the best way to piss off Ray Allen is to throw bricks at the basket. But this is Garnett's team, and Sheed will eventually find his offensive role. One question lingers: Will Need4Sheed change the name of her Pistons blog?

  I'm picking the Celtics 3rd in the regular season, which means the Magic will have homecourt should they meet the Celtics in the conference semifinals. I don't think, however, that the new Magic will take the series.

  I predict that Boston will revenge its Garnett-less defeat at the hands of the Magic and move on to play the Cavs. What happens next will probably be the stuff of NBA legend. (The Celtics kicked off the season last night with a win in Cleveland at the Q.)

  THE REST:  The Heat stood pat after last spring's Jermaine O'Neal trade and hope to be healthier. The Bulls were so overloaded in the backcourt that they let Ben Gordon go (they couldn't afford, nor did the Bulls deserve FOUR of 'em). Hyper-athletic Philly let its veteran point guard go in favor of youth (good move in my book).

  The Heat, Bulls and Sixers will continue to improve and grow because they didn't add new pieces, something like addition by subtraction -- which I'm going to do by subtracting outta here for now. While I refuel, check out Depressed Fan, a top notch blog on all things Sixers and Philly, where our Bucks'll be Friday to open the season.

  4) Miami Heat: The temptation here is to fill in Dwyane Wade's Heat for the 4th seed, so I'll give in. Trouble is, the Heat are no better than the Bulls and they start injury-prone O'Neal at center. What I like is that the Heat stuck with their young players, guards Mario Chalmers and Daequan Cook (Daequan who?), and forward Michael Beasley, doing fine after a rough summer South Beach summer and some rehab.  The Heat courted Lakers FA Lamar Odom in the offseason but couldn't come to terms -- a blessing in disguise. Odom would have taken minutes from Beasley and been paid too much for accomplishing very little that the Heat won't accomplish without him -- a 4th or 5th seed in the East. Tough guy PF Udonis Haslem is still in the fold, and Quentin Richardson (from the Knicks) adds to the scoring punch and depth at guard-forward. This is a team that will need to be tougher than it is in the paint to win 50 games in the East, but with Beasley getting better all the time and Haslem's veteran presence, they just might get close.

  END NOTE: Jason Kapono can shoot.  Active NBA 3-point shooting list. (No Bucks in the top-25, but four ex-Bucks are: Ray Allen, Eddie House, Bobby Simmons and Mo Williams). And the Career NBA 3-point shooting list.

  With 4 comment(s)

  Filed under: Ray Allen, Scott Skiles, Milwaukee Bucks, Shaquille O'Neal, Lebron James, Cleveland Cavaliers, Mo Williams, Doc Rivers, Rajon Rondo, Delonte West, Paul Pierce, Eddie House, Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, Michael Beasely, Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Michael Redd trade, Kevin Garnett, Vince Carter, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat, Daequan Cook, Orlando Magic, Big Ben Wallace, Udonis Haslem, Jamario Moon, Leon Powe, Rasheed Wallace, Brandon Bass, Hedo Turkoglu, Eastern Conference Preview, Jameer Nelson, Mike Brown, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Anrdew Bogut, Mario Chalmers, Big Baby Davis, Lamar Odom, Jason Kapono

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• Brandon Jennings blazes trail in New York Times feature

  Posted Oct 26 2009, 05:19 PM by J.D. Mo

  I picked up the midwest edition of the New York Times today to have something to look at while having my morning coffee and was hit with the unexpected. There it was, sports, page one, lower fold, under the saga about ol' Brett's 4th quarter adventures Sunday: a feature on Brandon Jennings (hit the story link while it lasts - after a few days, Times content is pay-per-view). 

  What followed was a good read on Jennings' development, the crux being Jennings' trailblazing status as the first player to buck the NCAA's one-and-done deal by playing in Europe. In what seems an unintentional (or intentional) jab at the NCAA, the story also features perfectly legal text-messaging between Jennings and Bucks assistant Kelvin Sampson. The NCAA investigation into this communique may yet be pending.

  Here's a passage from the Monday Times that stood out:

  "At 6 feet 1 inch and 169 pounds, Jennings was knocked off his game by the Pistons' starting point guard, Rodney Stuckey, who is 4 inches taller and nearly 40 pounds heavier, and buillied by Stuckey's backup,  Will Bynum."

  (No, that's not another Bucks nightmare or a description of Luke Ridnour's 2008-09 season; it's actually in The Times story.)

  Equally outstanding on Monday was this from hometown Journal Sentinel Bucks beat writer Charles Gardner:

  "[Jennings] has faced a number of top point guards already, including Kirk Hinrich of the Chicago Bulls, Aaron Brooks of the Houston Rockets and Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey of the Pistons."

  Geez, wonder what will happen when Jennings actually faces a "top point guard" like Devin Harris, Chris Paul or Jameer Nelson -- but here's some more from The Times feature:

  "Jennings appears to be well positioned to succeed. He is working under a head coach [Scott Skiles] who was an N.B.A. point guard, and in a city with fans who reward effort and attitude."

  And:

  "So far so good, Sampson said. 'He’s doing all the right things,' he said. 'At some point, he’s got to take steps forward.'"

  The point guards of the league won't get any smaller or less talented as the season wears on, but here's hoping Skiles does the right thing and starts him in the season opener Friday in Philly. It is Jennings, not Ridnour, who is the face of Bucks marketing this season; and the Bucks are an organization that needs to begin regaining the trust of its fans.

  With 3 comment(s)

  Filed under: Scott Skiles, Milwaukee Bucks, Kelvin Sampson, Brandon Jennings, New York Times

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• A Bucks Monday: Doubting Kurt Thomas

  Posted Oct 11 2009, 11:43 PM by J.D. Mo

  The Bucks got their first preseason win up in Green Bay Saturday against the Derrick-Rose-less Chicago Bulls, thanks to some good versatility by their young forwards off the bench (a combined 30 pts and 17 rebs by Hakim Warrick, Ersan Ilyasova and Luc Mbah a Moute), some solid minutes from Andrew Bogut (12 pts, 5 rebs in 19 mins) and some long range bombing from Carlos Delfino.

  Young forwards off the bench?

  That's right. 37-year-old Kurt Thomas and Carlos Delfino started at the forward positions. No, it's not another Bucks nightmare. Thomas and Delfino got the start, and both Journal Sentinel and AP confirm that, indeed, Skiles did it on purpose. Really.

  Of course, Luke "too many nicknames" Ridnour has started at point guard thus far, with rookie Brandon Jennings coming off the bench. That much we saw that coming. It was never likely (and still isn't) that coach Scott Skiles would start a rookie at the outset of the season. So far, though, Jennings has played the bulk of the preseason point guard minutes.

  Heading into this season the Bucks needed to be four things: young, defensive-minded, tough on the boards and quick to move the ball around on offense.

  It's far too early to say the mission is in the mud, but after GM John Hammond's summer-ending moves and three preseason games, I'm beginning to wonder.

  Can it be that Skiles on Saturday was sending a message to his young forwards, crowded as they were in a bunch on the Bucks bench? -- "If you want PT, you have to play better than Kurt Thomas and Carlos Delfino."

  Please. But perhaps it does shed some light on why GM Hammond held onto Thomas and traded young PF Amir Johnson for Delfino (adding to the payroll in the process) when he could have bought Thomas out and let him seek a contract from a playoff contender. The Bucks actually intend to play Thomas (at least for now), and this was apparently more important than resigning Ramon Sessions.

  Even in his prime with the Knicks, Thomas was no great difference-maker (remembering the 1999 finals). Some nice stats a few years later but the Knicks had fallen fast into lotteryland. Now that Thomas is 37, he's little more than a big body taking up space, albeit one who may still be able to knock down a jumper or two. But why would the Bucks need him to knock down J's when Ilyasova and Warrick can do the same? The big man's value on this team is primarily as a backup to Bogut should the injury bug hit the Bucks center again.

  Can Ersan play power forward? There's the rub, the question that the starting of Thomas definitely raises, especially after Kevin Love and the T-Wolves, and then the Detroit Pistons frontcourt, bruised the Bucks in the first two preseason games. On the other hand, Bogut played so little that it's too early to judge whether Thomas would have made any difference. The good news is that Ilyasova, Mbah a Moute and Warrick all played more minutes than Thomas, even after the early start.

  And let's be thankful it's only preseason and these games are meaningless ... up to a point. ...

  Highlights/lowlights from last week's Pistons-Bucks game are still up at NBA.com. Check 'em out. Lotta good guards in the NBA. Better than ours, I'm afraid. Why am I writing like the android "Leon" in BladeRunner?

  With 5 comment(s)

  Filed under: John Hammond, Scott Skiles, Milwaukee Bucks, Andrew Bogut, Ramon Sessions, Detroit Pistons, Ersan Ilyasova, Luke Ridnour, Luc Mbah a Moute, Ben Gordon, Amir Johnson, Kurt Thomas, Brandon Jennings, Hakim Warrick, Carlos Delfino

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