Bucks (6-3) vs. Charlotte Bobcats (3-8), 7:30pm @ the Bradley Center, FSW

Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies (3-8), 7:00pm, FSW

The question going into this weekend wasn't "how" or "whether" Michael Redd would fit in once he came back from his latest dunking attempt injury (his third such injury in three years), but can he fit in.

Now that question's moot as Andrew Bogut will miss 2-4 weeks with a left leg strain and contusion. Bogut was limping noticably after banging his leg in the 4th quarter of Wednesday's win over the Nets.

The good news is that a contusion is a bruise, not a serious injury, no reason for alarm. The Bucks should be careful about rushing him back in light of his lower back problems -- if Bogut's compensating for a leg injury, he could compromise his lower back. I don't think the Bucks did such a good job of being patient with their center's health last season. 

Looking at the schedule, the earliest Bogut might return could be the Cavs game Dec. 6 at the BC, a Sunday afternoon game. They shouldn't bring him out on the road over the next two weeks.

This is too bad, as Bogut's been playing some of the best ball of his career, making a strong case for himself to be Dwight Howard's backup at the 2010 All-Star game in Dallas. Bogues was averaging 16.1 pts, 9.2 boards and playing strong D. He even knocked down a 15-foot jumper against the Nets Wednesday, on his way to 21 pts,11 rebs in the Bucks 99-85 win.

The 18 shots he took against the Nets were his season high, a good sign that coach Scott Skiles likes Bogut as a number-one offensive option -- and the Bucks and coach are reading from the same page on this.  This wasn't always the case last season, which brings us to Michael Redd and his pending return.

The Bucks aren't letting on exactly when Redd will be back ("soon" JSOnline reported Thursday). But we can expect he'll play on the Bucks 4-game trip west, which begins Saturday in Memphis. This doesn't bode well, as Redd hasn't played well on the road in recent years. A main goal this season was for the Bucks to maintain some level of consistency, no matter where they were playing. That goal doesn't seem too realistic over the next couple of weeks.

Without Bogut in the lineup, be ready for anything -- and keep an eye on the Bucks shot selection in these upcoming games. Skiles will likely be tearing at his own ears by the end of the week. This is going to be interesting, but don't expect the Bucks to resemble the team we've seen go 6-3. But least the ball will be in Jennings hands most of the time, which matters more than anything else at this point.

Luc Mbah a Moute missed the first game of his NBA career Wednesday and it took the Bucks an entire half to figure out how to play D and keep the Nets off the offensive glass. Luc's day-to-day, nursing a sprained foot. If he's not playing against the 'Cats, hardworking forward Gerald Wallace is a matchup problem.

Charlotte takes Jackson off Nellie's hands: Warrior malcontent Stephen Jackson's in and veteran defender and three-point bomber Raja Bell, a favorite of coach Larry Brown's, is gone to Golden State to help Nellie stabilize things, one would guess. Jackson's been asking for a trade for a while and last week his agent attacked Nellie in an ESPN story, if you could call it a story. Are you bored with this item yet? I am.

In any case, the Bobcats are off to a slow start, in part because Bell hurt his wrist in preseason and needs wrist surgery at some point. Jackson, the former Pacer, he of the Malace at the Palace brawl, can score. He's averaging 17 a game and put up 21 against the Bucks Saturday. If one of his 3-pointers (0-4) goes in, the Bucks probably lose that game despite Jennings' 55. But that's Jackson -- he can get good shots easily enough but he's not a very consistent shooter. Nellie would obviously rather have Bell and his bum wrist than a healthy Jackson. Wonder when Larry Brown will start to feel the same.

Don't let the Bobcats 3-8 record fool you. They are a tough, Brown-coached team that gelled after acquiring Bell and Boris Diaw from the Suns last season (trade for Jason Richardson). In the offseason, they got bigger in the paint by trading Emeka Okafor for Tyson Chandler, always a tough matchup for Bogut (Okafor never was). The 'Cats lost a tough one in Philly Wednesday night (Jackson had 26).

This was a difficult one for the Bucks before Bogut got hurt. The Cats ARE the competition in the East. Winning games like these, at home against teams like the Pistons, Philly, the Bulls, the Cats, the Raptors -- will define the Bucks season.

Lionel Hollins and the Grizzlies:  Hollins left the Bucks last season to take over as head coach of the Grizzlies, no surprise to anybody -- Hollins has been an integral part of the Grizzlies organization since its inception, and was due a real chance to be head coach (he was interim coach twice in Grizzlies history). I'm not surprised at all that Hollins had the good sense to try and bring Allen Iverson off the bench, and was perfectly content to let him out of his contract when AI didn't like it.

Now that Hollins and the Grizz are done with Iverson, they're the same talented young team that can't figure out how to win. And they're one of the worst defensive teams in the league, ranking 28th in defensive rating (the Bucks are 3rd).

But Hollins runs the Skiles offense, which can give the Bucks problems: it's like playing against a mirror. Remember late last season when the Grizzlies shocked the Bucks at home, 107-102? It was pretty rude, and the Bucks fouled the Griz all over the court. Forward Rudy Gay led the Grizz with 26 in that one.

Hakim Warrick will make his first appearance against his former team, though Ersan Ilyasova's earned most of the Bucks power forward minutes lately.  

Bucks (4-2) vs. Golden State Warriors (2-5). Saturday, 7:30 pm @ the Bradley Center

This must be ex-coaches old home week for the Bucks. First Skipper George Karl and the Nuggets of Carmelo's Island shipwrecked at the BC to end their Eastern conference road trip. Next up is Don Nelson and his infighting Warriors, currently in New York trying to get some practice in amid their bickering. Seems the greatest coach in the history of the Bucks and his all-star guard, Monta Ellis can't get along. Here's an excerpt from the San Jose Mercury News story:

"Nelson waved both hands at Ellis, as if to brush him off, and walked off shaking his head.

'See,' Ellis said. 'That's why I won't do it. I just won't do it.'"

Meanwhile, Warrior forward Stephen Jackson's agent is a bit#h, and ESPN loves it. 

The Warriors play the Knicks Friday, so Nellie's team will be playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back when they face the Bucks on Saturday. The well-rested, well-practiced Bucks, enjoying their soft schedule (quite a difference from the brutality of last season) get no excuses if they blow this one.

KID DYNAMITE -- Brandon Jennings rained 55 on Nellie and the Warriors Saturday in the Bucks 129-125 win. Suddenly the whole league is watching. The Bucks were the featured Yahoo and NBA.com stories the night of the game, and there's been more since.  Now for the highlights.

Dangerous win: Jennings' 55 points were just two short of Redd's franchise and Bradley Center record of 57, and the Bucks needed every one of them against Nellie's Warriors. Never let it be said that Skiles doesn't like a shootout or won't roll the ball out and let his rookie sensation get after it. But this was exactly what Nellie wanted Skiles to do Saturday (see Pregame notes below). The Warriors were one Corey Maggette (25 pts) 3-ball in the 4th from taking this game from the Bucks, too close for comfort. After the game, Skiles said the Bucks didn't play well.

Luckily for the Bucks, the Warriors have more interest in ensuring their pace than than they do in defense, and that played right into Jennings' hands. The rookie had 14 in the 4th, Charlie Bell added 7, including the game-clinching free throws in the final seconds (Jennings and Bell are starting to click as the Bucks starting guards).

The box score will show that the Bucks core of Jennings (7-8 from downtown), Andrew Bogut (19 pts, 11 rebs), Luc Mbah a Moute (12 rebs) and Bell (14 pts, 6 assists) shot well, rebounded and dished, and played heavy minutes. In a game where Nellie put four-guard lineups on the court, Luke Ridnour put in 36 mins off the bench and had a good, smart game: 13 pts, 4 assists, just ONE turnover and he even blocked a Stephen Curry shot!   Nellie-ball limited Ersan and Hakim's minutes, while Jodie Meeks logged 16 minutes off the bench.

Carlos Delfino was benched after a terrible game Wednesday against Denver, and despite the fact that my pal Johnny says he looks like X-Men bada#s Wolverine. Saturday, Carlos "Wolverine" Delfino rode the pines.

Say Hello to Jason Kidd: Great game, and get ready for Jason Kidd on Monday, Skiles told Jennings after the game. The Mavs, like the Nuggets and Warriors before them, will be on the 2nd night of back-to-back road games when they face the Bucks. The Mavs ended a 3-game Pistons win streak Sunday in Detroit, stealing the game thanks to a horrendous shooting night from Pistons gunner Ben Gordon. Dirk Nowitzki led the Mavs with 25 pts. Big center Erick Dampier will miss the game, pitting Bogut against Drew Gooden, still a skilled big man. The Bucks blew the Mavs out at the BC last season without Bogut, as Charlie V and Michael Redd were on fire. Redd's allegedly going to try to play this week, if not Monday then Wednesday.

PREGAME: But before counting win #5, let's look back to Dec. 10, 2008 and shudder. The Bucks were in Oakland to play the Warriors on the last night of a three-game trip West. It was one of those rare times when the Skiles-Richard Jefferson Bucks were relatively healthy. Andrew Bogut's back had not yet revolted against him (that would happen a week later in Philly). Michael Redd's ankle sprain had been healed for about two weeks. The only player missing from Skiles' 8-man rotation was Charlie Bell, who missed the road trip to get the limp out of his ankles.

Yet the Bucks at that point were not clicking at all, and didn't seem to be able do anything well except rebound. They had had embarassed themselves against the Suns and Lakers in the first two games of the western trip, and needed a win against Nellie's Warriors to salvage some scrap of something -- pride? They didn't get it.

The 6-15 Warriors blew the Bucks out in the 4th quarter, 37-15 for their 7th win, 119-96. The Warriors, like the Suns, had suckered the Bucks into an uptempo shoot-out, and the Bucks went for it, led by Michael Redd (27 pts in the loss). The Bucks fell to 9-15 and were nowhere near the committed, aggressive defensive team they are now. Skiles seemed at a loss.

The Warriors game, like the Suns game, highlighted the Bucks lack of discipline in recent years and also a lingering and major Bucks weakness: shooting. The Warriors and Suns are teams filled with guys who can drain it. They do it quickly and they do it well, and they do it much better than the Bucks, currently dead-last in the NBA in shooting at 41.4%. 

The Warriors shoot 49% from the field and lead the league in scoring at 112.4 points per game. They've got six guys averaging in double figures, led by Ellis and Stephen Jackson, plus rookie Stephen Curry, who's scoring nine a game.

Redd will miss this game, a good thing for the Bucks. The Bucks can't afford to get into a shootout with a Nellie team. It's a trap for the undisciplined, and a game management challenge for Skiles, certainly no foe of a quick tempo. But it's tricky. The Warriors are going to shoot at their own pace, not much the Bucks can do about it but get a hand in their faces or force turnovers, which they've been able to do well so far this season. The big danger for the Bucks and Brandon Jennings will be falling into Nellie's groove instead of a groove their own. And they'll need to identify a couple of hot shotters as they did in the win Wednesday against the Nuggets.

IN-GAME UPDATES AND NOTES: Under six minutes to play in the 3rd, the Bucks have called time and Jennings is about to go to the line for an and-one. He made it, tying the game (69 all) for the first time in the 2nd half. This is going as expected. The Bucks fell into Nellie's trap and gave up 57 points in the first half. The Bucks could only muster 48. 

The Bucks will probably need to score 110 to win this one and that's fine with Jennings -- he's got 30 points with 15 minutes of game left. The kid is a dynamo. Make that 32 points. No, 35 and we're still in the 4th. 37!!! FLASH.  39!!!

KID IS ON FIRE!!!  JENNINGS just hit a half court shot with no time on the clock to push the Bucks lead to nine, 92-83, going into the 4th. He has 41.

Center Andris Biedrins is out with a groin injury and won't play in Milwaukee. Biedrins is a skilled, active center with range whose quickness presents problems for Bogut. This could mean a lot of layups for Bogut if the Bucks pound the ball inside, which is what they did against the Nuggets Wednesday. Big advantage in the paint against the Warriors.

BOGUT is racking up big numbers, as expected: 19 pts on 9-11 shooting, 10 rebs -- still in the 3rd. He didn't score in the 4th.

SKILES has again, as he did against the Nuggets, played Jennings, Charlie Bell, Bogut and Luc Mbah a Moute heavy minutes. That looks to be the core -- the rookie sensation and three tough-minded defenders. While he split the power forward minutes Wednesday using Hakim Warrick and Ersan Ilyasova, Skiles has gone small to counter Nellie with Luke Ridnour. Jennings has not come out in the 2nd half, heading toward the 6 minute mark of the 4th, Bucks holding a 99-95 lead. 

Nellie's been resting his starters, Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson in particular. Remember, the Warriors are playing the 2nd night of a back-to-back. I'm a little concerned, though Mbah a Moute and Bogut are also getting some rest as I write this.

Note to Bucks GM John Hammond: Anthony Randolph, that stringy 6'10" forward from LSU you passed on in favor of Joe Alexander in the 2008 draft is doing just fine. He's a regular part of Nellie's rotation these days, and is averaging 13.0 pts and 7.1 boards in -- get this -- just 22 minutes per game.

The Bucks remain #1 in NBA defensive rating (going into the Warriors game) giving up just 93.1 points per 100 possessions. They're also #1 in rebounds per game, with 47.3, and #1 in rebounding percentage. They're grabbing 54% of available rebounds. JS Online Bucks blog has the story.  

And now, let's take a moment to ponder George Karl.

They came wearing Ray Allen Bucks jerseys, #34. They came in red hair and blue faces like a clan of barbarians. They came with bellies full of beer and filled them some more.

They came to see George Karl, the man who once publicly accused Ray Allen of not having any respect for the game. 

They came to heckle the man who traded Ray Allen and sent the Bucks floundering into the Michael Redd era.

They were but one section of fans (tickets paid for by Andrew Bogut) in a crowd of just 7,000, but they were loud.

George's ship eventually crashed on Carmelo's island and there he's made his home. His Nuggets are one of the best of the West, a possible title contender. But after a rough weekend in Miami and Atlanta and a Tuesday-Wednesday back-to-back in Chicago and Milwaukee, the Nuggets have no business thinking about an NBA title. They were fortunate to escape with a 90-89 win against the Bulls -- their lone victory in the East since beating New Jersey a week ago.

And George Karl is now 0-2 at the Bradley Center since the Bucks hired Scott Skiles. The Bucks jumped the Nuggets last February, 120-117, also at the end of a Nuggets Eastern trip. 

Wednesday night, Chauncey Billups looked too old to be chasing around rookies with Brandon Jennings' seemingly endless supply of energy (32 pts, 9 assists for Jennings). There was indeed a reason Detroit decided Chauncey'd seen better days. Wednesday he looked very much like the tired, battle-worn guard who couldn't keep up with Rajon Rondo and Jameer Nelson in the 2008 playoffs.

And Andrew Bogut (23 pts, 10 rebs, 4 blocks) was good, very good, up to the challenge of Denver center Nene Hilario and everything else Denver threw at him, including a foul-tempered and frustrated Carmelo. The Nuggets get a little chippy when they're being beat. Check out the Bogut-Melo confontation and other highlights.

Bucks (1-2) @ Timberwolves (1-4), 7:00pm Fox-Wis.

New York Knicks (1-5) @ Bucks, 7:30pm, no local TV

Welcome to the inaugural 2009-10 Bob Boozer Jinx Bucks Weekend (say that three times fast). For the uninitiated, Bucks Weekends are two or three day blogs that usually end Sunday night and sometimes even makes sense Monday morning. Bucks Weekend looks ahead and back at Bucks games while also checking 'round the NBA when the action is heaviest -- on the weekends.

We're once again seeing our Bucks without the $91 million man and their defensive intensity and energy is pit-bullish. Make that Scott Skiles Baby Bulls-ish.

The current Bulls on Tuesday in Chicago didn't know what hit them in the first half. But the two main Skiles players still on the Bulls -- Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng -- eventually reminded their teammates whose team they were playing and got their act together in time to pull out an 83-81 win. These Bulls know their former coach well, and they know how to win basketball games. Deng finished with 24 pts and 20 boards. More on that in a bit.

The upshot of the Bucks maniacal defense, which included Charlie Bell disrupting three consecutive plays in the first half and the Bucks hounding the Bulls into some embarrassing brick-shooting, is that the Bucks rank 3rd in the NBA in defense. The measure used is the defensive rating, a simple calculation of points per 100 possessions that eliminates pace as a factor in how many points teams allow. Going into Friday night's game in Minneapolis against the T-Wolves, only the Celtics and Larry Brown's Charlotte Bobcats have a higher defensive rating.

Bucks fans have seen this before. Last season, when Michael Redd missed 14 games in November due to an ankle sprain, the Bucks climbed into the top 10 in defensive rating during the toughest part of their schedule. They were scrappy and challenged every shot and didn't at all resemble the Bucks teams of the previous five years. Life without Redd means that Bucks fans get another chance to see again what a fully committed defensive Bucks team looks like. We're catching a glimpse into the Bucks future and I like what I see.

Redd fans will point out that the Bucks are next to last in offensive rating and have had trouble making shots. True enough. Looking at the stats,  everybody's gotta shoot better with the exception of Brandon Jennings and Dan Gadzuric (believe it, Gadzooks!!). Neither one will keep up their current pace (Jennings is shooting 50% from 3-point land) but Charlie Bell, Andrew Bogut and Hakim Warrick can certainly hit a higher percentage of their shots.

Shot selection: The Bucks shot selection has been mostly good to this point. With this team at this juncture in the season, shot selection is more important than whether or not the shots fall. Just as last season, finding players who can play Skiles' pressure defense and quick tempo passing game is priority. Redd can do neither of those things, and has not shot well or been healthy in the Skiles era.

The Michael Redd "3-point specialist" myth: Redd's career 3-point mark is 38.6%, good enough for 26th among active players. Pretty good but very misleading. After two-plus years in the league (playing with Sam Cassell, Ray Allen and Gary Payton) Redd had drained a remarkable 44% of his 3-pointers (270/614). In the six seasons since, he's been mediocre, shooting just 36.9% (711/1925) -- and lower than that in 4 of those six seasons. Mo Williams was and is a better shooter, hands down, something that caused friction on the court when Redd and Mo played together.

But Mo is long gone and Luke Ridnour and Carlos Delfino (another bad shooting night for Delfino in Minnesota) have not been better shooters than Redd in their NBA careers. No reason to expect them to shoot 40% now. A healthy Charlie Bell is capable and is off to a 40% start so far. Life without Redd means more PT for Charlie and more bad-ass defense on the court.

Redd was off to a 30% (3-10) start this season. Let's not forget game 1 and game 2, when the Bucks were outclassed in Philly and losing their home opener against Detroit. They pulled the home opener out with Redd on the bench.

Ersan Ilyasova having problems:  After watching Deng abuse Warrick and Ersan inside for 20 rebounds Tuesday in Chicago, I'm beginning to wonder AGAIN whether Ersan can play power forward in the NBA. In addition, Ersan went scoreless against the Bulls and Warrick shot 5-15. If looking for reason why the Bucks lost the game, look no further than the forwards 3-18 performance.

Ersan is the one player with the shooting ability to pick up the slack from 3-point land but he's having a rough time getting untracked. 

No Love for the Timberwolves: The Bucks just might win some games if their two new forwards can show that they can play more than spot minutes. At half in Minneapolis, where Kevin Love is out with a busted hand, Warrick and Ersan have 3 points and 3 rebounds.  The Bucks are being outrebounded at half and are in danger of losing their third straight to one of the leagues worst teams.

Last season, the Bucks lost in Minneapolis with Redd and Bogut in the lineup. They lost at home Jan. 26, shortly after Redd went down for the season.

Bogut in the middle: He's dominating Al Jefferson and the T-Wolves. Through three quarters, Bogues has 15 pts, 9 rebs. The Bucks held the T-Wolves to 12 pts in the 3rd. The Wolves are shooting 37% for the game against the Bucks pressure D.

Led by Bogut's 17 pts, 10 rebs and 4 dimes, the Bucks win 87-72. That's right, 72. Life without Michael Redd means the Bucks opposition shoots 39.2% from the floor. Luke Ridnour was hot, shooting 6-9 and hitting two from downtown for 16 pts off the Bucks bench.

Not in Sessions: Day after the game, T-Wolves fan Gino said Ramon Sessions could be great for them if they use him right. "But they're not using him right," I said. "No, they're not," he said. Ramon played 15 minutes off the bench Friday and tallied 2 pts, 1 assist and 2 turnovers. Worse, he was unable to stem the tide of the Bucks dominating 30-12 3rd quarter, led by Luke Ridnour. Rookie PG Johnny Flynn, out of Syracuse, outplayed Jennings in the first half but couldn't get anything going for the T-Wolves in the 2nd.

Bulls banking wins: After clawing back to take the Bucks Tuesday, the Bulls went to Cleveland and stole a win. But here's the notable quote after Deng's 20-board performance against the Bucks last week, courtesy of Bulls big man Brad Miller:

“[Deng] owes me a meal or something,” Miller joked. “I was blocking out rebounders so he could go get about five rebounds. He’s glad I’m an old guy who doesn’t really need the stats.”

After watching Deng and the Bulls put away the Bobcats Saturday night with a big 3rd quarter run, I'm penciling in Deng for the All-Star game. Deng got 14 points during the run that gave the Bulls the lead, as he and Hinrich seemed to find a zone of their own. Note that the Bulls also needed 27 pts from guard John Salmons and 21 from Joakim Noah to beat the Bobcats (93-90) at home. Watch Larry Brown's Cats -- they've played well since the trade deadline last season, and continue to be tough, even without injured Raja Bell.

THE KNICKS:  Pretty much the same group that survived the trading deadline last season, minus swingman Quentin Richardson's 10 points a game (he's on the Heat). In other words the Knicks stink, though they can surprise you. Still fresh in my mind are the 39 points that Larrry Hughes dropped on the Bucks last March at the BC, a game the Bucks needed badly to stay in the playoff race. Charlie Villanueva was benched in the first half of that one for lack of interest in defense and the Bucks eventually blew the game.

This time, with Bogut in the lineup winning the post battle against smaller David Lee, the Bucks got off to a 40-22 start and never looked back, winning 102-87. Another fine game for Jennings, who marveled at how many easy shots the Knicks gave them. Bogut led with 22 pts, 8 rebs, 4 assists -- Lee had 18, 7 and 4 in five more minutes of PT. Jodie Meeks hit 5-7 3-pointers to keep the rout going. The Bucks led by 23 after the 3rd.

Making shots?: While it was a nice overall shooting game by the Bucks (thanks to Meeks and Bogut) Carlos Delfino and Charlie Bell were a combined 3-8 from three-point land (not bad) and 5-12 overall from the floor for 13 points.  As the starters at shooting guard and small forward, more of those have to go in. Bell's going to get minutes as the kind of physical defender Skiles needs on the court to play his pressure defense, but Delfino?  Over the weekend Delfino was 5-15 from the floor. I'm still waiting for evidence that Delfino is the good shooter GM John Hammond has claimed.

Also, Luke Ridnour was 0-4 from three-point land. Note to coach Skiles: Luke's not good enough to be shooting that much from out there. Good thing the Bucks were playing the Knicks.

The Knicks and Jennings:  NY, needing a point guard, took a pass on Jennings in the draft and their fans booed. A disappointed Jennings, in an online video interview, told the Knicks to f#ck off and packed his bags for Milwaukee.

NY media, for one, is already in regret mode. The Knicks drafted Jordan Hill out of Arizona and coach Mike D'Antoni is hardly playing him (shades of the Bucks and Joe Alexander). Now the NY Post reports that Knicks scouts were higher on Hill than D'Antoni and his coaching staff were (after player workouts, no doubt).

Jennings says he "beat everybody else" up and down the court in his New York workout and is still surprised the Knicks didn't draft him. The Post article calls out Knicks GM Donnie Walsh for a comment last week about "not having a good feel for Jennings' game."  It seems the KNicks coaching staff doesn't agree with that statement.

And people think Lebron James is really going to consider playing for these guys?

DEFENSE: The Bucks were atop the NBA in the all-important defensive rating after the weekend games. Number one, allowing just 91 points per 100 possessions. They still rank 28th in offensive rating, but that should improve as the season wears on and Jennings gets a better feel for the Skiles offense. And the Bucks' shooters simply need to shoot better -- if they can.

It's more important for this rookie-led team that Skiles' defensive foundation is being set. And, yes, life without Michael Redd means that it's possible for the Bucks to be the #1 rated defensive team in the NBA.

The NBA Eastern Conference got better in the offseason, and is probably stronger top to bottom than the West. Our Bucks, unfortunately did not improve for the short term. This is the inescapable Bucks reality as the 2009-10 season gets underway.

Playoffs? Let's not even talk about it. There are four new forwards, a rookie point guard and a recovering Michael Redd to work in and around depending on his mood. Coach Scott Skiles has his work cut out for him. The Bucks need to simply be young, play defense, grab rebounds and loose balls and keep the ball moving on offense -- and forget about the scoreboard.

While we wait for the Bucks to sort things out, sit back and enjoy the rest. The top of the East will be a titanic fight for dominance and home court advantage between the Cavs, Celtics and Magic, all of whom made major upgrades after winning 59+ games last season. Miami, Chicago, Philly and Atlanta will compete for the coveted 4th seed. The 8th playoff spot is once again up for grabs, with the Raptors the most improved team of the rest.

Here's how I see the East stacking up:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers:  Replaced Ben Wallace with Shaquille O'Neal, Wally Szczerbiak with one of the best three-ballers in the league, Anthony Parker, and added Jamario Moon to their rotation. The best player in the world and coach Mike Brown's dedication to defense and rebounding give the Cavs the night-in, night-out consistency needed to win the regular season. They'll win with Shaq or Zydrunas Ilgauskas, they'll win with both, and they'll win with neither. When the Cavs' three-headed monster (Shaq, Big Z and Andy Varejao) is in the lineup, good luck grabbing a rebound against this team. The key for the Cavs is to get the all three healthy into the playoffs, obviously.

The Cavs backcourt problems should work themselves out. Three years in Milwaukee did little to prepare Mo Williams for the playoffs, and it showed. Mo's running mate, defensive stopper Delonte West, has had some trouble (guns, booze and who knows what else). For now, Delonte's lost his starting spot to Parker, but Mike Brown likes him on the court: Last season Delonte was second only to Lebron in mins per game. (Note: Opening the season without Delonte West, the Cavs are 0-2, with losses to the Celtics and the new and improved Raptors.

The Cavs in the offseason went after Hakim Warrick, who opted for the Bucks (should we assume Bucks GM John Hammond used that iou Cavs GM Danny Ferry gave him after the Mo trade?) then signed Leon Powe from the Celtics. Powe is working his way back from knee surgery. It'll be Shaq, Big Z, Andy and Leon Powe too! come playoff time. A lot of tonnage to throw at Dwight Howard and Kevin Garnett. Keep an eye out for Jamario Moon -- he plays like a rabid 76er and shoots better than most of the Philly roster.

2. Orlando Magic: Was Hedo Turkoglu a small or big forward? No matter, the Nets handed the Magic Vince Carter in a salary dump and they swapped Hedo to Toronto in a complex 4-team deal. Then the Magic raided the Western conference, signing a rugged young PF in Brandon Bass (Dallas free agent) and a solid small forward to come of the bench in Matt Barnes (Suns). Bass would have been a great complement to Andrew Bogut (same goes for the Cavs' Powe). Now Bass'll do the same for Dwight Howard. Carter isn't as explosive as he used to be but he's smarter, more versatile and shoots well enough from 3-land (38% last season). VC likes to pass, too.

Howard, entering his sixth season, is the best and most durable center in the world, and was probably a cat in a previous life. He is clearly showing signs of slipping: Last season Howard missed three games!, the first DNP's of his entire career. Forward Rashard Lewis is an all-star and maybe point guard Jameer Nelson is too, recovered nicely from last season's ankle problems. Swingman Mickael Pietrus only adds to the athleticism, depth and versatility of a team whose time to win a title has come. If the nationally televised whupping last week of a very good Hawks team was any indication, the Magic can't wait to get this season going.

3. Boston Celtics:  I don't see Doc Rivers riding workhorses Ray Allen and Paul Pierce as much as he did last year. Pierce in particular seemed drained by playoff time. But that was last season, when the only team with a more grueling schedule was the Bucks, and Ray and Pierce looked as exhausted as Richard Jefferson did by late December. I expect the Celtics to take things a little slower this time, considering that Kevin Garnett is coming back from knee surgery and this is likely the last hurrah for the Hall of Fame Three (Ray and Pierce will be free agents next summer). Kendrick Perkins, Rajon Rondo and Eddie House and his great shooting are still around and so's Big Baby Davis (though Big Baby's out for thumb surgery and disciplinary reasons).

And who is this guy? This Celtics crew has been around so long and accumulated so much NBA experience that they probably don't care one bit whether they get along or not. Sheed's tough, likes to rebound and play D, and is a nice post presence if he stays near the basket, which he lost interest in doing in Detroit. Last thing the Celtics need is Sheed hanging around out in 3-point land and chuck up shots like he was Charlie Villanueva. If I remember right, the best way to piss off Ray Allen is to throw bricks at the basket. But this is Garnett's team, and Sheed will eventually find his offensive role. One question lingers: Will Need4Sheed change the name of her Pistons blog?

I'm picking the Celtics 3rd in the regular season, which means the Magic will have homecourt should they meet the Celtics in the conference semifinals. I don't think, however, that the new Magic will take the series.

I predict that Boston will revenge its Garnett-less defeat at the hands of the Magic and move on to play the Cavs. What happens next will probably be the stuff of NBA legend. (The Celtics kicked off the season last night with a win in Cleveland at the Q.)

THE REST:  The Heat stood pat after last spring's Jermaine O'Neal trade and hope to be healthier. The Bulls were so overloaded in the backcourt that they let Ben Gordon go (they couldn't afford, nor did the Bulls deserve FOUR of 'em). Hyper-athletic Philly let its veteran point guard go in favor of youth (good move in my book).

The Heat, Bulls and Sixers will continue to improve and grow because they didn't add new pieces, something like addition by subtraction -- which I'm going to do by subtracting outta here for now. While I refuel, check out Depressed Fan, a top notch blog on all things Sixers and Philly, where our Bucks'll be Friday to open the season.

4) Miami Heat: The temptation here is to fill in Dwyane Wade's Heat for the 4th seed, so I'll give in. Trouble is, the Heat are no better than the Bulls and they start injury-prone O'Neal at center. What I like is that the Heat stuck with their young players, guards Mario Chalmers and Daequan Cook (Daequan who?), and forward Michael Beasley, doing fine after a rough summer South Beach summer and some rehab.  The Heat courted Lakers FA Lamar Odom in the offseason but couldn't come to terms -- a blessing in disguise. Odom would have taken minutes from Beasley and been paid too much for accomplishing very little that the Heat won't accomplish without him -- a 4th or 5th seed in the East. Tough guy PF Udonis Haslem is still in the fold, and Quentin Richardson (from the Knicks) adds to the scoring punch and depth at guard-forward. This is a team that will need to be tougher than it is in the paint to win 50 games in the East, but with Beasley getting better all the time and Haslem's veteran presence, they just might get close.

END NOTE: Jason Kapono can shoot.  Active NBA 3-point shooting list. (No Bucks in the top-25, but four ex-Bucks are: Ray Allen, Eddie House, Bobby Simmons and Mo Williams). And the Career NBA 3-point shooting list.

I picked up the midwest edition of the New York Times today to have something to look at while having my morning coffee and was hit with the unexpected. There it was, sports, page one, lower fold, under the saga about ol' Brett's 4th quarter adventures Sunday: a feature on Brandon Jennings (hit the story link while it lasts - after a few days, Times content is pay-per-view). 

What followed was a good read on Jennings' development, the crux being Jennings' trailblazing status as the first player to buck the NCAA's one-and-done deal by playing in Europe. In what seems an unintentional (or intentional) jab at the NCAA, the story also features perfectly legal text-messaging between Jennings and Bucks assistant Kelvin Sampson. The NCAA investigation into this communique may yet be pending.

Here's a passage from the Monday Times that stood out:

"At 6 feet 1 inch and 169 pounds, Jennings was knocked off his game by the Pistons' starting point guard, Rodney Stuckey, who is 4 inches taller and nearly 40 pounds heavier, and buillied by Stuckey's backup,  Will Bynum."

(No, that's not another Bucks nightmare or a description of Luke Ridnour's 2008-09 season; it's actually in The Times story.)

Equally outstanding on Monday was this from hometown Journal Sentinel Bucks beat writer Charles Gardner:

"[Jennings] has faced a number of top point guards already, including Kirk Hinrich of the Chicago Bulls, Aaron Brooks of the Houston Rockets and Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey of the Pistons."

Geez, wonder what will happen when Jennings actually faces a "top point guard" like Devin Harris, Chris Paul or Jameer Nelson -- but here's some more from The Times feature:

"Jennings appears to be well positioned to succeed. He is working under a head coach [Scott Skiles] who was an N.B.A. point guard, and in a city with fans who reward effort and attitude."

And:

"So far so good, Sampson said. 'He’s doing all the right things,' he said. 'At some point, he’s got to take steps forward.'"

The point guards of the league won't get any smaller or less talented as the season wears on, but here's hoping Skiles does the right thing and starts him in the season opener Friday in Philly. It is Jennings, not Ridnour, who is the face of Bucks marketing this season; and the Bucks are an organization that needs to begin regaining the trust of its fans.