Bucks (1-2) @ Timberwolves (1-4), 7:00pm Fox-Wis.

New York Knicks (1-5) @ Bucks, 7:30pm, no local TV

Welcome to the inaugural 2009-10 Bob Boozer Jinx Bucks Weekend (say that three times fast). For the uninitiated, Bucks Weekends are two or three day blogs that usually end Sunday night and sometimes even makes sense Monday morning. Bucks Weekend looks ahead and back at Bucks games while also checking 'round the NBA when the action is heaviest -- on the weekends.

We're once again seeing our Bucks without the $91 million man and their defensive intensity and energy is pit-bullish. Make that Scott Skiles Baby Bulls-ish.

The current Bulls on Tuesday in Chicago didn't know what hit them in the first half. But the two main Skiles players still on the Bulls -- Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng -- eventually reminded their teammates whose team they were playing and got their act together in time to pull out an 83-81 win. These Bulls know their former coach well, and they know how to win basketball games. Deng finished with 24 pts and 20 boards. More on that in a bit.

The upshot of the Bucks maniacal defense, which included Charlie Bell disrupting three consecutive plays in the first half and the Bucks hounding the Bulls into some embarrassing brick-shooting, is that the Bucks rank 3rd in the NBA in defense. The measure used is the defensive rating, a simple calculation of points per 100 possessions that eliminates pace as a factor in how many points teams allow. Going into Friday night's game in Minneapolis against the T-Wolves, only the Celtics and Larry Brown's Charlotte Bobcats have a higher defensive rating.

Bucks fans have seen this before. Last season, when Michael Redd missed 14 games in November due to an ankle sprain, the Bucks climbed into the top 10 in defensive rating during the toughest part of their schedule. They were scrappy and challenged every shot and didn't at all resemble the Bucks teams of the previous five years. Life without Redd means that Bucks fans get another chance to see again what a fully committed defensive Bucks team looks like. We're catching a glimpse into the Bucks future and I like what I see.

Redd fans will point out that the Bucks are next to last in offensive rating and have had trouble making shots. True enough. Looking at the stats,  everybody's gotta shoot better with the exception of Brandon Jennings and Dan Gadzuric (believe it, Gadzooks!!). Neither one will keep up their current pace (Jennings is shooting 50% from 3-point land) but Charlie Bell, Andrew Bogut and Hakim Warrick can certainly hit a higher percentage of their shots.

Shot selection: The Bucks shot selection has been mostly good to this point. With this team at this juncture in the season, shot selection is more important than whether or not the shots fall. Just as last season, finding players who can play Skiles' pressure defense and quick tempo passing game is priority. Redd can do neither of those things, and has not shot well or been healthy in the Skiles era.

The Michael Redd "3-point specialist" myth: Redd's career 3-point mark is 38.6%, good enough for 26th among active players. Pretty good but very misleading. After two-plus years in the league (playing with Sam Cassell, Ray Allen and Gary Payton) Redd had drained a remarkable 44% of his 3-pointers (270/614). In the six seasons since, he's been mediocre, shooting just 36.9% (711/1925) -- and lower than that in 4 of those six seasons. Mo Williams was and is a better shooter, hands down, something that caused friction on the court when Redd and Mo played together.

But Mo is long gone and Luke Ridnour and Carlos Delfino (another bad shooting night for Delfino in Minnesota) have not been better shooters than Redd in their NBA careers. No reason to expect them to shoot 40% now. A healthy Charlie Bell is capable and is off to a 40% start so far. Life without Redd means more PT for Charlie and more bad-ass defense on the court.

Redd was off to a 30% (3-10) start this season. Let's not forget game 1 and game 2, when the Bucks were outclassed in Philly and losing their home opener against Detroit. They pulled the home opener out with Redd on the bench.

Ersan Ilyasova having problems:  After watching Deng abuse Warrick and Ersan inside for 20 rebounds Tuesday in Chicago, I'm beginning to wonder AGAIN whether Ersan can play power forward in the NBA. In addition, Ersan went scoreless against the Bulls and Warrick shot 5-15. If looking for reason why the Bucks lost the game, look no further than the forwards 3-18 performance.

Ersan is the one player with the shooting ability to pick up the slack from 3-point land but he's having a rough time getting untracked. 

No Love for the Timberwolves: The Bucks just might win some games if their two new forwards can show that they can more than spot minutes. At half in Minneapolis, where Kevin Love is out with a busted hand, Warrick and Ersan have 3 points and 3 rebounds.  The Bucks are being outrebounded at half and are in danger of losing their third straight to one of the leagues worst teams.

Last season, the Bucks lost in Minneapolis with Redd and Bogut in the lineup. They lost at home Jan. 26, shortly after Redd went down for the season.

Bogut in the middle: He's dominating Al Jefferson and the T-Wolves. Through three quarters, Bogues has 15 pts, 9 rebs. The Bucks held the T-Wolves to 12 pts in the 3rd. The Wolves are shooting 37% for the game against the Bucks pressure D.

Led by Bogut's 17 pts, 10 rebs and 4 dimes, the Bucks win 87-72. That's right, 72. Life without Michael Redd means the Bucks opposition shoots 39.2% from the floor. Luke Ridnour was hot, shooting 6-9 and hitting two from downtown for 16 pts off the Bucks bench.

Bulls banking wins: After clawing back to take the Bucks Tuesday, the Bulls went to Cleveland and stole a win. But here's the notable quote after Deng's 20-board performance against the Bucks last week, courtesy of Bulls big man Brad Miller:

“[Deng] owes me a meal or something,” Miller joked. “I was blocking out rebounders so he could go get about five rebounds. He’s glad I’m an old guy who doesn’t really need the stats.”

The NBA Eastern Conference got better in the offseason, and is probably stronger top to bottom than the West. Our Bucks, unfortunately did not improve for the short term. This is the inescapable Bucks reality as the 2009-10 season gets underway.

Playoffs? Let's not even talk about it. There are four new forwards, a rookie point guard and a recovering Michael Redd to work in and around depending on his mood. Coach Scott Skiles has his work cut out for him. The Bucks need to simply be young, play defense, grab rebounds and loose balls and keep the ball moving on offense -- and forget about the scoreboard.

While we wait for the Bucks to sort things out, sit back and enjoy the rest. The top of the East will be a titanic fight for dominance and home court advantage between the Cavs, Celtics and Magic, all of whom made major upgrades after winning 59+ games last season. Miami, Chicago, Philly and Atlanta will compete for the coveted 4th seed. The 8th playoff spot is once again up for grabs, with the Raptors the most improved team of the rest.

Here's how I see the East stacking up:

1. Cleveland Cavaliers:  Replaced Ben Wallace with Shaquille O'Neal, Wally Szczerbiak with one of the best three-ballers in the league, Anthony Parker, and added Jamario Moon to their rotation. The best player in the world and coach Mike Brown's dedication to defense and rebounding give the Cavs the night-in, night-out consistency needed to win the regular season. They'll win with Shaq or Zydrunas Ilgauskas, they'll win with both, and they'll win with neither. When the Cavs' three-headed monster (Shaq, Big Z and Andy Varejao) is in the lineup, good luck grabbing a rebound against this team. The key for the Cavs is to get the all three healthy into the playoffs, obviously.

The Cavs backcourt problems should work themselves out. Three years in Milwaukee did little to prepare Mo Williams for the playoffs, and it showed. Mo's running mate, defensive stopper Delonte West, has had some trouble (guns, booze and who knows what else). For now, Delonte's lost his starting spot to Parker, but Mike Brown likes him on the court: Last season Delonte was second only to Lebron in mins per game. (Note: Opening the season without Delonte West, the Cavs are 0-2, with losses to the Celtics and the new and improved Raptors.

The Cavs in the offseason went after Hakim Warrick, who opted for the Bucks (should we assume Bucks GM John Hammond used that iou Cavs GM Danny Ferry gave him after the Mo trade?) then signed Leon Powe from the Celtics. Powe is working his way back from knee surgery. It'll be Shaq, Big Z, Andy and Leon Powe too! come playoff time. A lot of tonnage to throw at Dwight Howard and Kevin Garnett. Keep an eye out for Jamario Moon -- he plays like a rabid 76er and shoots better than most of the Philly roster.

2. Orlando Magic: Was Hedo Turkoglu a small or big forward? No matter, the Nets handed the Magic Vince Carter in a salary dump and they swapped Hedo to Toronto in a complex 4-team deal. Then the Magic raided the Western conference, signing a rugged young PF in Brandon Bass (Dallas free agent) and a solid small forward to come of the bench in Matt Barnes (Suns). Bass would have been a great complement to Andrew Bogut (same goes for the Cavs' Powe). Now Bass'll do the same for Dwight Howard. Carter isn't as explosive as he used to be but he's smarter, more versatile and shoots well enough from 3-land (38% last season). VC likes to pass, too.

Howard, entering his sixth season, is the best and most durable center in the world, and was probably a cat in a previous life. He is clearly showing signs of slipping: Last season Howard missed three games!, the first DNP's of his entire career. Forward Rashard Lewis is an all-star and maybe point guard Jameer Nelson is too, recovered nicely from last season's ankle problems. Swingman Mickael Pietrus only adds to the athleticism, depth and versatility of a team whose time to win a title has come. If the nationally televised whupping last week of a very good Hawks team was any indication, the Magic can't wait to get this season going.

3. Boston Celtics:  I don't see Doc Rivers riding workhorses Ray Allen and Paul Pierce as much as he did last year. Pierce in particular seemed drained by playoff time. But that was last season, when the only team with a more grueling schedule was the Bucks, and Ray and Pierce looked as exhausted as Richard Jefferson did by late December. I expect the Celtics to take things a little slower this time, considering that Kevin Garnett is coming back from knee surgery and this is likely the last hurrah for the Hall of Fame Three (Ray and Pierce will be free agents next summer). Kendrick Perkins, Rajon Rondo and Eddie House and his great shooting are still around and so's Big Baby Davis (though Big Baby's out for thumb surgery and disciplinary reasons).

And who is this guy? This Celtics crew has been around so long and accumulated so much NBA experience that they probably don't care one bit whether they get along or not. Sheed's tough, likes to rebound and play D, and is a nice post presence if he stays near the basket, which he lost interest in doing in Detroit. Last thing the Celtics need is Sheed hanging around out in 3-point land and chuck up shots like he was Charlie Villanueva. If I remember right, the best way to piss off Ray Allen is to throw bricks at the basket. But this is Garnett's team, and Sheed will eventually find his offensive role. One question lingers: Will Need4Sheed change the name of her Pistons blog?

I'm picking the Celtics 3rd in the regular season, which means the Magic will have homecourt should they meet the Celtics in the conference semifinals. I don't think, however, that the new Magic will take the series.

I predict that Boston will revenge its Garnett-less defeat at the hands of the Magic and move on to play the Cavs. What happens next will probably be the stuff of NBA legend. (The Celtics kicked off the season last night with a win in Cleveland at the Q.)

THE REST:  The Heat stood pat after last spring's Jermaine O'Neal trade and hope to be healthier. The Bulls were so overloaded in the backcourt that they let Ben Gordon go (they couldn't afford, nor did the Bulls deserve FOUR of 'em). Hyper-athletic Philly let its veteran point guard go in favor of youth (good move in my book).

The Heat, Bulls and Sixers will continue to improve and grow because they didn't add new pieces, something like addition by subtraction -- which I'm going to do by subtracting outta here for now. While I refuel, check out Depressed Fan, a top notch blog on all things Sixers and Philly, where our Bucks'll be Friday to open the season.

4) Miami Heat: The temptation here is to fill in Dwyane Wade's Heat for the 4th seed, so I'll give in. Trouble is, the Heat are no better than the Bulls and they start injury-prone O'Neal at center. What I like is that the Heat stuck with their young players, guards Mario Chalmers and Daequan Cook (Daequan who?), and forward Michael Beasley, doing fine after a rough summer South Beach summer and some rehab.  The Heat courted Lakers FA Lamar Odom in the offseason but couldn't come to terms -- a blessing in disguise. Odom would have taken minutes from Beasley and been paid too much for accomplishing very little that the Heat won't accomplish without him -- a 4th or 5th seed in the East. Tough guy PF Udonis Haslem is still in the fold, and Quentin Richardson (from the Knicks) adds to the scoring punch and depth at guard-forward. This is a team that will need to be tougher than it is in the paint to win 50 games in the East, but with Beasley getting better all the time and Haslem's veteran presence, they just might get close.

END NOTE: Jason Kapono can shoot.  Active NBA 3-point shooting list. (No Bucks in the top-25, but four ex-Bucks are: Ray Allen, Eddie House, Bobby Simmons and Mo Williams). And the Career NBA 3-point shooting list.

I picked up the midwest edition of the New York Times today to have something to look at while having my morning coffee and was hit with the unexpected. There it was, sports, page one, lower fold, under the saga about ol' Brett's 4th quarter adventures Sunday: a feature on Brandon Jennings (hit the story link while it lasts - after a few days, Times content is pay-per-view). 

What followed was a good read on Jennings' development, the crux being Jennings' trailblazing status as the first player to buck the NCAA's one-and-done deal by playing in Europe. In what seems an unintentional (or intentional) jab at the NCAA, the story also features perfectly legal text-messaging between Jennings and Bucks assistant Kelvin Sampson. The NCAA investigation into this communique may yet be pending.

Here's a passage from the Monday Times that stood out:

"At 6 feet 1 inch and 169 pounds, Jennings was knocked off his game by the Pistons' starting point guard, Rodney Stuckey, who is 4 inches taller and nearly 40 pounds heavier, and buillied by Stuckey's backup,  Will Bynum."

(No, that's not another Bucks nightmare or a description of Luke Ridnour's 2008-09 season; it's actually in The Times story.)

Equally outstanding on Monday was this from hometown Journal Sentinel Bucks beat writer Charles Gardner:

"[Jennings] has faced a number of top point guards already, including Kirk Hinrich of the Chicago Bulls, Aaron Brooks of the Houston Rockets and Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey of the Pistons."

Geez, wonder what will happen when Jennings actually faces a "top point guard" like Devin Harris, Chris Paul or Jameer Nelson -- but here's some more from The Times feature:

"Jennings appears to be well positioned to succeed. He is working under a head coach [Scott Skiles] who was an N.B.A. point guard, and in a city with fans who reward effort and attitude."

And:

"So far so good, Sampson said. 'He’s doing all the right things,' he said. 'At some point, he’s got to take steps forward.'"

The point guards of the league won't get any smaller or less talented as the season wears on, but here's hoping Skiles does the right thing and starts him in the season opener Friday in Philly. It is Jennings, not Ridnour, who is the face of Bucks marketing this season; and the Bucks are an organization that needs to begin regaining the trust of its fans.

The Bucks got their first preseason win up in Green Bay Saturday against the Derrick-Rose-less Chicago Bulls, thanks to some good versatility by their young forwards off the bench (a combined 30 pts and 17 rebs by Hakim Warrick, Ersan Ilyasova and Luc Mbah a Moute), some solid minutes from Andrew Bogut (12 pts, 5 rebs in 19 mins) and some long range bombing from Carlos Delfino.

Young forwards off the bench?

That's right. 37-year-old Kurt Thomas and Carlos Delfino started at the forward positions. No, it's not another Bucks nightmare. Thomas and Delfino got the start, and both Journal Sentinel and AP confirm that, indeed, Skiles did it on purpose. Really.

Of course, Luke "too many nicknames" Ridnour has started at point guard thus far, with rookie Brandon Jennings coming off the bench. That much we saw that coming. It was never likely (and still isn't) that coach Scott Skiles would start a rookie at the outset of the season. So far, though, Jennings has played the bulk of the preseason point guard minutes.

Heading into this season the Bucks needed to be four things: young, defensive-minded, tough on the boards and quick to move the ball around on offense.

It's far too early to say the mission is in the mud, but after GM John Hammond's summer-ending moves and three preseason games, I'm beginning to wonder.

Can it be that Skiles on Saturday was sending a message to his young forwards, crowded as they were in a bunch on the Bucks bench? -- "If you want PT, you have to play better than Kurt Thomas and Carlos Delfino."

Please. But perhaps it does shed some light on why GM Hammond held onto Thomas and traded young PF Amir Johnson for Delfino (adding to the payroll in the process) when he could have bought Thomas out and let him seek a contract from a playoff contender. The Bucks actually intend to play Thomas (at least for now), and this was apparently more important than resigning Ramon Sessions.

Even in his prime with the Knicks, Thomas was no great difference-maker (remembering the 1999 finals). Some nice stats a few years later but the Knicks had fallen fast into lotteryland. Now that Thomas is 37, he's little more than a big body taking up space, albeit one who may still be able to knock down a jumper or two. But why would the Bucks need him to knock down J's when Ilyasova and Warrick can do the same? The big man's value on this team is primarily as a backup to Bogut should the injury bug hit the Bucks center again.

Can Ersan play power forward? There's the rub, the question that the starting of Thomas definitely raises, especially after Kevin Love and the T-Wolves, and then the Detroit Pistons frontcourt, bruised the Bucks in the first two preseason games. On the other hand, Bogut played so little that it's too early to judge whether Thomas would have made any difference. The good news is that Ilyasova, Mbah a Moute and Warrick all played more minutes than Thomas, even after the early start.

And let's be thankful it's only preseason and these games are meaningless ... up to a point. ...

Highlights/lowlights from last week's Pistons-Bucks game are still up at NBA.com. Check 'em out. Lotta good guards in the NBA. Better than ours, I'm afraid. Why am I writing like the android "Leon" in BladeRunner?

Instead of getting irate about the Bucks' confounding ability to shrug players in out of their fans' diminishing awareness of the existence of said Milwaukee NBA squad, I took a stroll through the archives here at thy hollowed institute of sportsbubble-tron. Of course this meant reviewing the all-important trade for Wally Szczerbiak's really neato cool wolf skin parka ... 

I still think it's a neato cool parka that should have been brought to Milwaukee last summer for a certain overpaid shooting guard nobody wants to think about but the reason I'm calling attention to it has nothing to do with satire or the parka -- it's the game note at bottom (scroll down).

On the eve of the Feb. 19 trading deadline, our Bucks hosted the Chicago Bulls.  The Bucks were on a three-game winning streak and in playoff position. The Bulls were a few games behind them in the standings, had just made a big trade with the Kings and were missing a few players. Here's the note I wrote after the game: 

"Does Skiles miss Kirk Hinrich? It sounded so last night after Hinrich lit up the Bucks for 18 in the 4th in the Bulls 113-104 victory at the BC. Here's what Skiles said postgame in comments that didn't make the Milwaukee paper:

'Kirk had a great game, obviously shooting the ball and scoring. He just took our guards and made us look pretty silly on several occasions because he was playing so hard.'"

Who were those Bucks guards Skiles referred to? Box Score: Luke Ridnour and Michael Redd were out with injuries so that left Ramon Sessions and Charlie Bell, and Luc Mbah a Moute, who started at guard but floated around. Keith Bogans and Eddie Gill logged some minutes as well. That's not much to send (or is it?) against Derrick Rose and Skiles' Baby Bulls, Hinrich and Ben Gordon. Clearly, the coach was disappointed. He didn't think his guys, no matter how depleted, had any business being outclassed at home. This was one instance when the coach was expecting a bit more out of ...

Ramon Sessions -- who didn't have one of his better games (in 37 mins).

But Ramon was in large part responsible for the Bucks three game win streak, wins against Houston, Indiana and Detroit in Detroit. He had scored 26 against Houston, shredded Indiana (15 pts, 17 assists) and no Piston could stay with him after scoring 44 against them a few games prior in a tough home loss. It looked as though the Bucks, without their center, without Redd, were on track to a lower rung East playoff spot. 

But then there were games like this Bulls game looming large as evidence that they weren't quite playoff worthy, no matter how tough they hung in there. And Hinrich seemed to enjoy making the point that his old coach's new guards were no match for his old ones.

Still, this performance (Feb. 18) was better than the season opener in Chicago. In that one, Sessions didn't play (coach's decision, still not clear why Sessions had to watch Ridnour all game) and the Bucks were uninspired, confused, never really in the game and burned by Hinrich and Gordon all night. After two games of this sort of play without Sessions (the second an ugly win in Oklahoma City in which Redd was benched in the first half), Skiles sat Ridnour (bad back) and started Sessions against the Raptors and the Knicks.

Suddenly, the Bucks looked like a team (except for that little problem Michael Redd had in the 4th quarter against the Raptors). The "should Ramon Sessions start?" polls began after the first week of the season.

Ramon had trouble challenging the jump shot of Raptors' point guard Juan Navarro (I do remember this detail from the game) but the fans had seen all they needed to see. The answer from the majority of Bucks fans was "YES."

Still, a double standard regarding evaluation of the point guard play of Ridnour and Sessions continued throughout the season.

Ramon was a fan favorite, one of the few bright spots for the Bucks the last few seasons. Sure, he might have made his coach miss his Baby Bulls guards at times, but the development of Sessions was something for Bucks fans to be excited about, and we were excited about it. We needed that. And Ridnour wasn't getting it done, it was clear to everybody except Scott Skiles.

Peachtree hoops - an Atlanta Hawks blog. Peachtree has some interesting insights on whether Sessions would have been a better acquisition for the Hawks than the resigning of Mike Bibby. It sounds like Peachtree didn't watch Ramon and the Bucks play much last season (there's a lot of surface level stat analysis in his evaluation) -- but simply the fact that a Bibby vs. Sessions question is being raised is interesting enough in and of itself.