The Bob Boozer Jinx

Ranking Bogut and his contract - The top ten (or 13) NBA centers and their money

J.D. Mo — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 13:26:00 GMT

Is Andrew Bogut the best center named Andrew drafted in the 2005 lottery? Is Bogut a Top 10 NBA center? What does Mehmet Okur, the center for the Utah Jazz get paid?

These are things Bucks fans need to know as Bogut last week inked the five-year contract extension he more or less demanded from the Bucks. The agreement reportedly guarantees $60 million to Bogut over five years. Add Bogut's $6.9 million salary, which is not part of the extension, and Bogut would be under contract for a guaranteed $66.9 million over six years, through the 2013-14 season.

As projected back in April on the BBJ (almost to the dollar) that's a fairly good deal for the Bucks, in line with the contracts of Sixers center Sam Dalembert, New Orleans' Tyson Chandler and the Cavs' Zydrunas Ilgauskas.

But what about these "incentives" that could add $12.5 million to the guaranteed money, bringing the potential worth of the extension up to $72.5 million? That's nearly the "Yao money" that the Bucks, as a lottery team, needed avoid paying a 23-year-old center with a lot left to prove. Sure, he can "prove it" earning those incentives, but why not just make all-star getting $12 mill a year? What more incentive is needed?" The incentives are "team-based and individual" according to Journal Sentinel, which didn't cite a source for those details. Bogut's agent later told Brewhoop that the incentives involved all-star, "play like Dwight Howard" pay.

But enough about the contract. Without further ado, meet the inaugural Bob Boozer Jinx 2008 NBA center rankings.

1) Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic. First team All-Pro; 2nd team All-Defensive; leading rebounder in the NBA three years running (14.2 avg. last season); 4th in blocked shots. Only 22-years-old and has not missed a game in his four-year career since being the 1st pick overall in the 2004 draft. Shot 60% from the floor last season (3rd in the NBA), but only 59% from the line, which hurt the Magic as Howard led the league in free throw attempts. "Hack-a-Dwight" is the new "Hack-a-Shaq" defense. Howard was 6-15 from the stripe against the Pistons in decisive game five against Detroit in the playoffs, which the Magic lost by five. Coulda made the difference.

Howard next season starts year one of his five-year $85 million extension ($17mill avg), the max extension (CP3 got a similar max extension). Bogut was actually paid $240,000 more than Howard last season and will earn $800,000 more than Howard did in the fourth year of his rookie contract. Seems that NBA inflation kicked in for #1 picks between the 2004 and 2005 drafts.

2) Tim Duncan and his Spurs were tough enough in the paint to beat the Suns, and there's nothing like Duncan magically transforming into Dirk Nowitzki to hit a game-tying three to demoralize the Suns in Game 1 of that series. Is Duncan a center? If Pau Gasol, who was pushed around all over the NBA Finals, is a center, so is Duncan, who plays the 5 much of the time in the Spurs dangerous small lineups. Anchors the Spurs D in the paint, first-team All-Defensive 2007 and 2008, doing so, and is usually guarded by the opponents center. Sounds like a center to me. At 7' 0" 248 lbs, Duncan is one of the best big men in NBA history. Averaged 19.3 pts and 11.3 rbs per game last season, 1.9 blocks, 7th in the league. Four championships. 31-years-old and plenty of gas left in the tank.

Duncan's salary is $20 mill per year.

3) Amare Stoudemire/Shaquille O'Neal* Stoudemire is no longer the Phoenix center now that Shaq is in the paint, but he'll be called on to play the low post during the stretches of the season that Shaq is bound to miss. Phoenix acquired Shaq and fired coach Mike D'Antoni partly because of the lack of defensive toughness from Stoudemire and others (two straight playoff losses to Duncan Spurs didn't help). Amare's still one of the best scorers in the NBA around the basket. Averaged 26.7 points and 9.7 rebounds last season, earning 2nd-team All-NBA alongside Duncan as Yao slipped due to injuries.

Soudemire's contract extension was 5 years $72.6 million, $14.5 million per year avg. He'll be only 28 years-old when he's done playing out the remaining three years. Bogut can earn current "Amare money" if he makes the incentives in his contract, though by the time Bogut's extension is in effect, Stoudemire will be into the backloaded years at the end of his contract and getting $15-16 mill per year.

*Shaq gets an asterisk because the 4-time champion, at age 36, is very much a part time player unless he comes roaring back next season to his 2006 form, which doesn't seem likely. Combining Shaq and Stoudemire at #2 may be cheating, but it's as though Phoenix has a center-and-a-half. Shaq has lost a step but he's still Shaq. Only a couple of teams in the West are tough enough to compete with the Suns in the paint.

Shaq's salary is $20 million per year.

4) Yao Ming. 3rd-team All-NBA last season despite missing 27 games. Six time All-Star and 4-time All-NBA selection. Yao's a 22 pts, 10 rbs per game center who is, however, at 7' 6", 310lbs, not proving very durable. He's missed 86 games over the last three years. Best free throw shooter among the centers at nearly 86% over the last three seasons. Not a shotblocker or a charge-taker, and could rebound more than he does for a 7' 6" guy. His Rocket teams win -- 107 wins over the last two seasons -- but his Rocket teams win just as much without him.

Yao, 27, starts year three of a 5-year $75 million deal - $15 million avg per year. I hope that if the Bucks are willing to pay Bogut near-Yao money with these reported incentives that one of them is based on improved free throw shooting. Bogut shoots better than Shaq from the line but even Howard outshoots the Bucks center from the stripe. (I take that back - no one in the NBA should be offered a contract incentive to make free throws.)

5) Pau Gasol/Andrew Bynum* Gasol is a gifted offensive player, but you'd almost have to put Kendrick Perkins on the list ahead of him after the Lakers were shoved around all over the NBA Finals by the Celtics. Still the Lakers went on a tear after acquiring Gasol last year and Gasol (18 pts 7.8 rbs) will have Bynum to help him out in the paint next season. But really, Gasol is a lot more like big forward Dirk Nowitzki than he is like center Tim Duncan.

*Bynum averaged 13.1 pts and 10.2 rbs until he hurt his knee (before the Gasol trade). After surgery this summer, he's is a bit of a question mark (hence the asterisk and the double entry here at #5). Still, the Lakers should have few worries about the inside game next season. Bynum, the 10th pick in the 2005 draft, played very well against Bogut in their head-to-heads last season, with Bynum clearly the better player. He's considered by many around the league to be the best center in the 2005 draft.

*Bynum is reportedly asking for a five-year $85 million extension, which would put him in the Howard $17 mill per year bracket. Good luck with that Andrew, as it looks like Chris Paul is the only player from the 2005 draft who'll get Howard money. The Lakers will look to keep Bynum as close to Bogut's $12 mill deal as possible.

Gasol's contract is a guaranteed 6 years $86 million, a max contract that puts him in Stoudemire's neighborhood. Like the Bucks max Redd contract, Gasol's is backloaded - three years and $49.3 mill left to play out, a situation Bucks GM John Hammond was wise to avoid by flattening Bogut's annual increases.

6) Marcus Camby has never had much of an offensive game but has been one of those rare players who thrives on the defensive end. The Nuggets center last season led the league in blocked shots, was 2nd in rebounding to Howard and made 1st team All-NBA Defensive. Trouble is that after the playoffs, it's difficult to tell where the Nuggets and Camby are at, or where coach George Karl's head is at. Camby, for one, has been upbeat about next season. The oft-injured center outplayed his contract incentives for the first time, earning his full $11.2 million salary, with career highs in games played, minutes, assists, blocks and rebounds at age 33. I'd rank him ahead of Gasol but for that sweep business in the playoffs.

Camby's $11.2 mill salary next year actually drops to $10.9 million for the 2009-10 season. He's got two years $22.1 million left on his contract.

7) Zydrunas Ilgauskas. A tough spot to pick, as a combination of a good offensive-defensive game becomes a rare find in NBA centerville, which brings us to Cleveland, the best rebounding team in the NBA for years now. The Cavs' toughness starts with their 7' 3" center. After missing the better part of two seasons early in his career with injuries, Z has been a remarkably consistent scorer, rebounder and defender in the paint for Lebron James' entire career-and one. Ilgauskas can score 15 in his sleep off his rainbow set shot, still the most effective offensive weapon the Cavs have outside of Lebron. The James-Z offensive combo was probably not used as much as it should have been in the Cavs-Celtics series, but the Cavs showed that a championship is much more within their reach than many NBA wags had thought. (C'mon, the NBA wags had all but handed the title to the Lakers).

At age 33, Z may only have a good year or two left, but experience counts. Bogut and many other younger centers haven't distinguished themselves enough (or in Bogut's case, have not outplayed Z head-to-head) to be ranked ahead of him.

Ilgauskas took a pay cut in 2005 to stay in Cleveland, and this season enters year four of a five year $50.6 million contract. The final two years pay $22.3 mill.

8) Mehmet Okur began his career in Detroit but the Pistons couldn't afford to keep him after winning the 2004 championship. No skin off then-coach Larry Brown's nose as Brown often left 24-year-old Okur on the bench to keep Darko Milicic company during the Pistons playoff run. In Utah, Okur replaced big Greg Ostertag, still around from the Stockton-Malone years, and teamed with power forward Carlos Boozer -- also acquired that offseason -- to give the Jazz toughness inside to build around. By 2006 Okur was averaging 18 pts, 9 rbs per game. By 2007 the Jazz were back to the 50-win level and Okur was in the All-Star game.

The knock on Okur is that he's no shot blocker or great athlete; and who wants a center who shoots threes even if he is the best three-point shooting center in the league? (.388% last season, better than any Buck.) Utah coach Jerry Sloan, however, has played to Okur's strengths -- and there's no denying Okur and Boozer's toughness inside. Over the last two regular seasons, the duo has averaged about 20 rebounds per game. In the playoffs this year against the Rockets and the Lakers, they cleaned an average of 24.1 boards off the glass (Okur had 11.8 per game). They're tough and it's put the Jazz right on the Lakers' heels in the West.

Okur, 29, is a bargain in the center market with a 6-year $50 million contract. He's set to make an average of $8.75 per year in the final two years of the contract, but the final year 2009-10 is a player option. With the Boguts, Dalemberts and Chandlers of the NBA making $11 million-plus by then, expect Okur to look for a nice raise.

9) Sam Dalembert was drafted by Philly in 2001, at the height of the Allen Iverson/Larry Brown era, when the Sixers beat the Big Three Bucks in the East Finals and went on to play the Lakers for the title. After not playing much behind Dikembe Mutumbo his first year, he missed his entire second year with injuries, then came back to join the Sixers decline after Brown jumped to Detroit. He has yet to develop much of an offensive game to go with his sometimes dominating defense, yet it's the defense and rebounding that has been pivotal in the Sixers turnaround, which was in the rest of the NBA's face in the second half of last season. As a team, the Sixers can be defensive demons. Dalembert, 27, is entering his prime and hasn't missed a start in two years, averaging 10.5 pts and 10.4 rbs (7th in total rebounds) last season. He was 3rd in the league in total blocked shots (2.3 per game).

Dalembert's D can be stifling. He handed Bogut his two most humiliating games last season, outplaying him in three of the four Bucks-Sixers matchups. The game logs ain't pretty. Dalembert had 22 pts, 8 rbs, 3 blks in the first matchup, a Sixers win in Milwaukee (Bogut had 6 points). The Bucks took game two, with Bogut playing well, though Dalembert had 16 pts, 16 rbs. The third matchup was a Sixers blowout with Bogut held to 5 pts, 4 rbs, turning the ball over five times. Game four was another wipeout of the Bucks, with Dalembert getting 18 and 10, while Bogut failed to score a hoop, got just two rebounds and called it "the worst game of my career."

Dalembert has three years left on a backloaded six-year $64 million deal, and will be paid $36 mill over the next three years. This will put Dalembert and Bogut at about the same $12 mill a year pay level by the 2009-10 season -- which might seem like a lot for centers who have never been all-stars and whose teams have not won playoff series' -- but that's the inflated market value that is the NBA. Sam hasn't been the most popular player in Philly, and neither has his contract. Now that the Sixers have Elton Brand and could be contenders in the East, don't expect many complaints about the center.

10) Tyson Chandler (Tie) came into the league out of high school and spent the first two years of his career looking absolutely lost on the court in Chicago, which had obtained his rights in a trade for Elton Brand. This was bad mojo in the post-Jordan Bulls era. Along came coach Scott Skiles and Chandler often found himself on the bench, counting his millions and taking on criticism that athleticism had been wasted on him. The Bulls signed declining veteran free agent Big Ben Wallace in 2006 and sent Chandler packing to the Hornets. In New Orleans, Chandler's found a home and a role -- dunking the ball off Chris Paul and Peja Stojakovic passes and tearing it up on the offensive boards. Chandler led the NBA in offensive rebounding the last two NBA seasons; 2nd only to Howard last season in field goal percentage and 3rd behind Howard and Camby in overall rebounding (11.6 per game).

So why is the ultra-athletic Chandler ranked behind Dalembert, Okur and Ilgauksus? First, he's nowhere near the defensive presence Dalembert is, nor is he as mean in the paint as Sam; and he's no shotblocker. Second, Ty's got no offensive game to speak of, other than the aforementioned dunking. To his credit, Chandler is a hustle player who kills lazy rebounding teams and has thrived playing with CP3 in the West, but Hornets coach Baron Davis runs no offense for Chandler -- no coach would. Against the Bucks last year Chandler averaged 17.5 pts, 15.5 rebounds in two Hornets wins. In a stretch last March, however, playing against the better teams in the East (plus Chicago and Indiana) Chandler averaged 11.6 pts (on his season avg of 11.8) but his rebounding was down three boards a game to 8.6. Still, the Hornets went 6-2 and split with the Celtics.

Chandler, 26 next season, has a 6-year $63 million deal signed with the Bulls; it pays him $34.6 mill over the next three years. It's a bit backloaded, so by the time Bogut's extension kicks in 2009-10, Chandler and Bogut's guaranteed salaries will be about $12 mill per year.

10) Andrew Bogut (Tie). Bucks coach Scott Skiles would likely object to having his 23-year-old center in the same club with a guy who spent years in and out of his doghouse in Chicago. But that was then, this is now. Other NBA fans might whistle homerism and question whether Bogut should be ranked this high -- his 14.3 pts, 9.8 rbs averages last season are no better than those of Kings center Brad Miller or Bobcats center Emeka Okafor, and lower than Clippers center Chris Kaman's; and Kaman blocked more shots than Bogut despite playing in only 55 games.

But here's where Bogut gets credit for toiling away on Michael Redd's hapless Bucks; respect vs. West players for playing in the increasingly clogged paints of the slower-paced East; and where his passing skills earn some props. Tim Duncan and Paul Gasol may be the only centers on this list who pass as well as Bogut -- Dalembert and Chandler certainly don't. Bogut is tough to rate because his development and production have been hurt playing with uncoachable ballhogs his entire career. What he's done is focus on one-on-one matchups with other centers, and tried to take care of his business in the paint regardless of all the wrong play going on around him. (Look out Sam Dalembert -- Bogut's looking for a few rematches.) Skiles, of course, is out to fix the wrong that has been the Milwaukee Bucks. The team has only won 94 games since drafting Bogut #1 in 2005.

"I've got to tell you," Skiles said Friday at Bogut's contract-signing press conference, "In watching almost every minute of every game (on film), I got a little tired of seeing when Andrew did run the floor and seal his man under the basket, a three-point shot going up. It's not brain surgery. If you have big guys that run the floor and cover their man up right by the basket, they oughta get the ball."

Unlike Kaman, Dalembert, Okur and Chandler, players older than Bogut, there's still plenty of upside left to Bogut's game. Last season he finally had a head coach, Larry Krystkowiak, in his corner and made the biggest strides of his career, showing that the Bucks could run low post offense through him and win games (hence the tie with Chandler of whom the same cannot be said). In fact, the Bucks often struggled most when Bogut's teammates freelanced away from the low post game plan. Defensively, Bogut made his biggest strides and a concerted effort to block shots (9th in the NBA); and was 3rd in offensive charges taken. The new "no flopping" rule shouldn't effect Bogut because he doesn't flop. He has taken a beating from opponents driving at will against the Bucks weak perimeter defenders. A big flaw in Bogut's game has been his Shaq-like free throw shooting and lack of an outside shot - but then those are Howard's big flaws too.

Howard, Bogut, Bynum, Atlanta's Al Horford and Portland's Greg Oden (yet to play an NBA game) are the young centers to watch in the NBA next season.

Bogut's guaranteed extension is 5 years $60 million, bringing his six-year total to $66.3 million. It seems that both sides in the Bogut negotiations came to the table understanding that Chandler and Dalembert money -- $12 million in 2009-10 -- was the fair and equitable base for Bogut. The $12.5m in incentives? It's still not clear what those are but Bogut's agent David Bauman mentioned Dwight Howard in saying that the incentives are, in part, based on all-star achievement. That's misleading because the incentives don't reach "Howard money." They make Bogut's possible earnings $14.5 million per year -- currently Yao-Gasol-Stoudemire money. Howard's avg salary, $17 million, is the All-NBA standard for an extension these days. Should Bogut make 1st, 2nd or 3rd Team All-NBA in the next few years, that would mean the Bucks are winning a lot -- and that the contract is a very good deal for Milwaukee.

Overall, I like the contract -- it's right in line with the market, including the incentives. In fact, I predicted the figures back in April. Then why does it still feel that the Bucks paid too much for their young center, steadily improving as he is, but with so much left to prove in the NBA?

Someone please tell Journal Sentinel that Richard Jefferson is not an All-Star

J.D. Mo — Wed, 09 Jul 2008 11:37:00 GMT

Why do those who run Milwaukee's daily newspaper seem to believe that bullshitting Milwaukee Bucks fans will bring us back to the Bradley Center next season?

Gary D. Howard, Journal Sentinel Sports Editor, fouled out in the first few paragraphs of the column he wrote in yesterday's paper, a blatant yet well-meaning attempt to make his readers feel good, really good, ecstatic even, about the acquisitions of pitcher CC Sabathia by the Brewers and forward Richard Jefferson by the Bucks.

Sabathia, who won his first game as a Brewer last night, has the Brewers bouncing around the clubhouse about their postseason prospects. Howard, however, is a basketball guy, and his column was about making Bucks fans feel as good about Jefferson as the Brewers fans feel about Sabathia.

He does this by:

1) Starting out the column talking about Brett Favre, a big no-no, irregardless of how good Sabathia or Jefferson may be;

2) Describing both Sabathia and Jefferson as "all-stars" as if there was some parallel between the two athletes.

Sabathia's no mere "all-star." He won the Cy Young last year, a declaration that, in 2007, he was the best player at the pitching position in Major League Baseball. The NBA equivalent is to be named 1st Team All-NBA. This makes Sabathia parallel to, say, Dwight Howard of the Orlando Magic, the center on this past season's All-NBA 1st Team.

The last Buck to be named 1st Team All-NBA was Sidney Moncrief in 1983. Marques Johnson made the 1st Team in 1979, the year before the advent of Bird and Magic; also the year Marques shot at will and averaged 25.6 points per game and only 3.0 assists per game. True, Marques' shots were good ones -- he shot 55 percent from the floor before the dawn of the three-pointer -- but the team finished 38-44 and did not make the playoffs.

(Michael Redd take note: the last player in a Bucks uniform to be allowed to shoot at will and control the ball the way you've been allowed to these last five years was Marques in 1979 -- and look how the team finished. Marques never played that way again after that season, and never again averaged more than 21.7 points a game in his career, while his assists rocketed up to 4.6 per game and the Bucks became a 50-60 win team. I realize that comparing you, Mike, to Marques Johnson is completely unfair to you, but ... just saying.)

But that's it for the Bucks in the last 30 years -- only two, count 'em two, Sabathia-equivalent players: Sidney and Marques. Honorable mention goes to Terry Cummings (2nd Team All-NBA 1985).

So what does this have to do with Gary Howard's column? Everything ... because Richard Jefferson has never been an All-Pro, period. Not 1st, 2nd or 3rd Team.

In fact, Richard Jefferson has never made an NBA All-Star team. Not once in his seven-year career. Look it up.

Jefferson was a Top Ten scorer in the league last year, averaging more points per game (22.6) than All-Pro Marques Johnson ever did except for the 1979 season in which the Bucks failed to win. Last season, only five players in the NBA scored more points than Jefferson. Yet RJ did not make the All-Star team. His team, the New Jersey Nets, finished a disappointing 34-48.

So how did Richard Jefferson become an All-Star in the eyes of the Journal sports editor? Nobody knows. Maybe Howard figures that anybody in the Top Ten in scoring is an All-Star in his book.

But we know how that goes in Milwaukee. Michael Redd's been in the Top Ten in NBA scoring four of the last five years yet his team has never won. He did make the All-Star team once - in 2004, the year the Bucks almost won and finished 41-41. He was also 3rd Team All-NBA that season. 2004 also happens to be his lowest scoring year of the last five (21.7 pts avg) and the only season in Mike's career that he averaged five rebounds per game. Redd was All-Star, and the Bucks almost won. That now seems like a long time ago.

The trend is fairly clear. Getting into the Top Ten in scoring doesn't necessarily make a player an all-star or a winner. For many players, including Redd and Jefferson, if you're scoring in the Top Ten, chances are you're hurting the team, pursuing what Bucks center Andrew Bogut late last season called "individual accolades." Wonder who he was talking about?

Oddly enough, Jefferson hasn't pursued individual accolades all that much in his career (when the Nets were winning, Jefferson was scoring much less, often a third option) but things began to change for the Nets in 2007, going sour as Jason Kidd all but gave up on the team and asked for a trade. Suddenly, Jefferson's scoring went up. To me that's a bad sign.

The Bucks now have two guys who like to score the ball a lot, drive to the hoop and get to the line, but couldn't win games in the Eastern Conference last season playing the way they did. One has been an All-Star. The other, the new guy, has never been more than a 2nd-Team All-Rookie selection (2002) in the NBA. Sounds to me like a concoction that will give Scott Skiles headaches all year if it's allowed to suit up for the Bucks.

So why again am I and other Bucks fans being told by the editor of the big daily in town that the new guy is an All-Star?

You got me. Nobody knows. For the record, it's not coming from the Bucks organization or John Hammond. (Click here for the full transcript of Jefferson's news conference Monday.)

To be fair, Howard's not the only one in local media saying or writing "all star Richard Jefferson" since the trade. But as an NBA fan who supposedly respects Bucks fans/his readers (and therein may be the problem) Howard should know enough not to publish jive.

Richard Jefferson meets Milwaukee today; Nets sell Yi jerseys; brewhoop Hammond trilogy

J.D. Mo — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 09:26:00 GMT

Milwaukee will be introduced to forward Richard Jefferson today at a press conference, where he's expected to have all sorts of ways to explain that story from Nets GM Rod Thorn about how unhappy he seemed when Thorn told him about the draft day trade that sent RJ to the Bucks for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons.

"He didn't seem very happy about it," Thorn said after talking to his agent and text messaging him. Thorn didn't say whether Jefferson said anything at all one way or another beyond seeming to be unhappy, though I'm sure his agent said plenty. Somehow in Milwaukee, Jefferson has been repeatedly refered to as "All Star forward Richard Jefferson" though he has never made the All-Star team. (It's basketball-reference.com again - scroll all the way down for the career achievments).

Bucks fans will be relieved to know that RJ doesn't pass the ball much either ... but he does other stuff ...

Meanwhile, in New Jersey ...

The Nets are ecstatic about the deal -- and happy to have Bobby Simmons $10 million per year clearing out for 2010, setting the team up nicely for Lebron James pal and part Nets owner Jay-Z's plan to lure the King to Brooklyn and the new Nets arena. The Nets are also busy giving away Yi jerseys with every season ticket purchased from here on out and happy with the three young players they picked up in the draft. Brooke Lopez (I still say the team that develops Robin Lopez will be happier in the long run than the Nets with Brooke), Ryan Anderson and Chris Robert-Douglas out of Memphis, a hustle player who can guard three positions. The NY Times reports on the Nets website:

"It opens up a truly new fan base for us," said Brett Yormark, the Nets’ chief executive. "Yi is going to give us the opportunity to be relevant to Asian-American fans in ways we haven’t been before."

Within hours of the trade's confirmation, the Nets' marketing efforts were in full swing. Their Web site had a splash page of Yi in a Nets uniform, announcing, "Something big has come to New Jersey." They offered a free Yi jersey to everyone who purchased a season ticket. According to Yormark, the Nets sold 200 season tickets in the 36 hours after the trade.

Check out the Nets store here. It's all Yi all day.

Meanwhile ... back in Milwaukee

The Bucks don't seem to have a marketing plan in gear for the players on the team just yet, as Hammond isn't likely done reshaping the roster -- though Bango did appear in the city's Fourth of July parade. (Nobody works much in Milwaukee in the summer.) Yi had been the pitchman used in the Bucks store and and in many of the team's ticket appeals.

Brewhoop scored a long interview with John Hammond and its well worth the read. Comes in three parts and in pint glasses too like the Lord of the Rings, wherein it is explained how the one ring came into being and found its way to Michael Redd who may or may not relinquish it to Richard Jefferson ... though he could, and somehow this could all work with Mo Williams as the point guard, and why not because Scott Skiles is kinda like Gandalf and will make it work, somehow, someway.

PART 1

PART 2

PART 3

Oh, and Joe Alexander can guard the 4 spot, Hammond says, though he won't be expected to do that all the time or most of the time, though he could if called upon.

Here's Liv Tyler, who could play the elvin love interest in the story if Mo, Redd and Jefferson resist the power of the ring through the sacred art of teamwork, ball movement and defense.

By the look in her eyes, she's beginning to run out of patience.

Randolph, not Alexander has had the Bucks inside track in the draft

J.D. Mo — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 21:24:00 GMT

I'm sticking with my earlier prediction that Hammond is working to move this pick, or trade whomever the Bucks draft -- which may or may not explain why West Virginia's Joe Alexander was in town today for a second visit with the Bucks. Until now, LSU's Anthony Randolph has been viewed as the Bucks likely top choice, though there are concerns now that other teams are repositioning ahead of the Bucks and Randolph may be gone by the time the Bucks draft at #8.

What makes me say this when all draft speculators have the Bucks taking Alexander with the #8 pick and Randolph slipping out of the top 10? For starters, I was at the June 6 workout of Randolph, Alexander and Donte Green of Syracuse. The man of the day was Randolph.

As the media straggled into the court area at the Cousins Center and the players reached for the gatorade on the sidelines, Bucks assistant Joe Wolf strode up to Randolph and the two 6'10"ers exchanged an emphatic high five. I'd say things went very well for Randolph in Milwaukee. In the post-workout interviews, which you can watch here at sportsbubbler.com, Randolph declared himself the best player on the floor. I don't think there is much doubt about this in the Bucks camp. Later that day, Coach Scott Skiles and Randolph were reportedly spotted Downtown eating dinner together.

Alexander and Green were also feeling the Bucks' pro-Randolph vibe. Alexander hung around on the court taking in a few extra high post pointers from Bucks assistant Kelvin Sampson (no harm in kissing up to the coaches). Green decided he needed to show the media some of his stuff and slammed home a couple of high flying dunks on a side-basket. It worked -- Green's an impressive athlete and would be a good pick anywhere out of the top five or six in this draft. Green may yet sneak in to the Bucks plans.

I'd be very surprised if anyone in the media came away from the Cousins Center with the impression that Joe Alexander would be the pick. Journal Sentinel columnist Michael Hunt said as much in his column yesterday, writing that Randolph will likely be taken higher than #8. Here's the excerpt:

“'Everything’s in play,' Hammond said recently. 'Was, still is and probably will remain that way probably right up until draft day. We’re going to explore every option that we can to improve our team, and, as we said, potentially maybe even move the pick.'

That’s good, because LSU’s Anthony Randolph, the 6-10 forward who was probably the best option that worked out for the Bucks, will likely be gone by then. Draft-day trades, though, have become more and more uncommon in the NBA, so it’s possible the new and promising regime will have to take this reclamation project deep into the summer."

The New York Daily News yesterday echoed the Hunt (and BBJinx) take on Randolph.

The Bucks are sending out strong signals that they like LSU's Anthony Randolph at No. 8. A legitimate 6-10, Randolph has been called a cross between Tayshaun Prince and Odom. But West Virginia small forward Joe Alexander, a hard-nosed worker, is seen as a better fit with new coach Scott Skiles. ...

So why does ESPN's Chad Ford have Randolph possibly "slipping out of the lottery" in his latest Mock Draft? Ford writes:

"A number of young, inexperienced bigs have been hurting themselves in workouts. It's now a possibility that LSU's Anthony Randolph falls out of the lottery. Texas A&M's DeAndre Jordan, Nevada's JaVale McGee and Florida's Marreese Speights might not hear their names called until the 20th pick or after."

Remember The Chad Ford Principle. He doesn't talk to teams as much as he talks to agents, which means whatever he's got happening with Randolph probably serves the interest of a sports agent or two.

(Since originally posting this, a little research revealed that Randolph's rep is former Chicago Bull B.J. Armstrong of the Arn Tellem agency. Armstrong, a teammate of Bulls GM John Paxson on the 1992 and 1993 Bulls championship teams, also happens to be the rep for one Derrick Rose. Employing the Chad Ford principle we can assume that Armstrong is one of Ford's primary sources regarding not only Rose and the debate over who the Bulls will pick, but Randolph as well.)

Ford wrote in his mock draft last week that Randolph may now be perceived to be a headcase (Brewhoop notes it here.) That's probably a seed planted by Armstrong or other interested parties who want to see certain teams take a pass on Randolph. It's not all that clear what the Sonics, Grizzlies or Knicks will do ahead of the Bucks -- and the Grizzlies and Knicks at least have had interest in Randolph or Alexander or both.

(Brewhoop today notes that weeks ago Ford had Randolph in the top 5 talentwise, a good salespitch by Armstrong right about the time of the Randolph-Alexander Bucks workout. Armstrong and Ford seem to either have Randolph high out of the Bucks reach or too low for the Bucks to dip for. The Chad Ford Principle at work again. Go figure.)

Expect Ford, ever the accomplice for NBA agents, to be wrong on this one, and Hunt to be the writer who's got the Bucks and Randolph in better focus.

Ford also has Eric Gordon now going to the Memphis Grizzlies at the #5 spot -- that's a first for Gordon in these mock drafts -- and writes that he "would be shocked" if the Bulls took Beasley over Rose.

I'd be shocked if Chad Ford is on target.

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Here's an interesting analysis from Adi Joseph on NBADraft.Net. Joseph points out that many players in this draft are struggling to fit an NBA position, and that a little pessimism might be in order for fans of lottery teams.

"Alexander can't handle or shoot well enough to truly play on the wing, but he's too short for the post. He's definitely got some Shawn Marion in him, but often players with similar skill sets struggle to find their offensive games in the NBA.

Randolph is being compared to Chris Bosh. But he struggled with his efficiency as a freshman, turning the ball over 3 times per game and shooting just 46% from the field. And he's rail-thin and had the worst bench press results at the Orlando predraft camp. He'll have to bulk up big time to ever play in the post. But his 2-of-19 shooting from three-point range will need to improve if he expects any respect from defenders at the NBA level."

Ouch. Joseph might even be meaner than I am!

The Chad Ford Watch and .... Redd to Cleveland hits snag

J.D. Mo — Mon, 23 Jun 2008 12:36:00 GMT

ESPN rumor mongerer Chad Ford is at it again. Last week Ford was speculating that the Bucks want to move up in the draft to "add some star power to their team." In his mock draft 6.0 today Ford has the Bucks picking Joe Alexander out of West Virginia with their #8 pick.

I have developed what can only be called "The Chad Ford Principle." Whatever Ford mongers out there as rumoroid fact, expect it to be false and driven by the needs of certain agents whom Ford spends far too much time listening to. And bear in mind when reading him that Ford an ethically challenged journalist who doesn't seem to be able to put two and two together very well.

Let's give The Chad Ford Principle a test run. If Ford writes that his sources say the Chicago Bulls are taking point guard Derrick Rose with the number one pick, expect the Bulls to pick forward Michael Beasley. In fact Ford himself is beginning to back off his "90 percent" assurance that the Bulls would take Rose, writing in mock draft 5.0 that he's "not as confident as I was a week ago that he'll be the pick."

The Bulls will take Beasley and I would bet on it. Again using The Chad Ford Principle, expect the Bucks to take Anthony Randolph (LSU) and not Alexander or do something more creative with the pick.

(Note: I've since learned that Rose and Randolph have the same agent -- former Chicago Bull B.J. Armstrong, a rep for the Arn Temer agency. Using The Chad Ford Principle, assume that agent Armstrong is one of Ford's key sources regarding both Rose and Randolph).

As for the Bucks moving up in the draft, Bucks GM John Hammond said last week that he doesn't "have a deal to move up or to move down" and that he's seeing movement among the teams drafting ahead of them. This could mean the Bucks might trade out of the first round altogether or trade whomever the Bucks pick.

That wasn't the only Ford-broadcasted fire that was extinguished last week. Remember all that talk about trading Yi Jianlian to Golden State in a deal for developing 21-year-old forward Brandan Wright and the Warriors #14 pick? A rep from the Warriors contacted Ford last week and "took umbrage" at the rumor. This from Ford's column last Thursday:

"A Warriors representative shot down an assertion made in a couple of my columns that the team was looking to move Brandan Wright. He especially took umbrage at the report that the team coveted Milwaukee's Yi Jianlian. I've been assured that Warriors GM Chris Mullin, who makes the final decisions at Golden State, isn't trading Wright for Yi."

The Warriors called to demand a correction, didn't they Chad?

And it was likely the first contact Ford's had with the Warriors in all of this. Still, Ford didn't quite have to the guts to label it a correction and just tacked it on at the end of his column with the following caveat:

"This time of the year, the information is flying fast and furious. Sources often have agendas, and from time to time I just get things wrong."

That's well and good, except that in an earlier version of the very same column, Ford wrote that, in still another trade involving Golden State and Wright, Cleveland was set to trade Anderson Varejao and their #19 pick to the Warriors. The Varejao report is apparently what prompted the Warriors to shut Ford's rumor mill down. Ford was slinging agent slime at Golden State week after week.

Guess who Yi Jianlian and Anderson Varejao have in common? Sports agent Dan Fegan, who obviously fed Ford the Yi trade rumors last season and is at it again now with Yi and Varejao. You bet Fegan's got an agenda. He wants Yi out of Milwaukee and Varejao out of Cleveland. Ford has been Fegan's willing accomplice when the agent feels the need to toss grist into the NBA rumor mills. I assume Ford knows fully well that Fegan has no ability to make trades.

Ford's problem is that this is not a "this time of year" thing; it's general Chad Ford practice. Ford routinely references agents off the record with tags such as "a source familiar with the talks" -- which is how he referred to Fegan in the Varejao rumor write-up.

In Cleveland, the Morning News called its sources and quickly debunked the Varejao to Golden State talk as "nothing more than a rumor." The Cavaliers are apparently not as upset with Ford as the Warriors were.

Journalistically, Ford's general practice is unethical. Because he writes for ESPN, NBA teams and the daily newspapers in NBA cities are compelled to react, in large part because he doesn't let his readers know that he's spinning rumors from agents -- not sources from NBA teams. That's downright unethical.

Is Ford writing for entertainment purposes only and is that an excuse? No and no, and Ford doesn't write in an entertaining style anyway. He shows little flair for absurdity, wit, sarcasm or humor, or even the cut-the-crap ***-ishness that sometimes makes for good writing. Overall, his style is banal. There's so little there and so many other mock NBA draft outlets for fans, such as Draft Express and NBADraft.net.

What purpose does Ford's column serve ESPN other than to generate site hits with agent-flushed yellow journalism? And what does that say about ESPN?

Cleveland, we have a problem here: The Akron Beacon Journal's Patrick McManamon took an in depth look at Anderson Varejao's situation last week and revealed something I don't think any of us wildly speculative blogger types had realized -- Varejao can reject any trade up until Dec. 5. That date matters because Dec. 5 is the one-year anniversary of the Cavs matching the contract offer Fegan and Varejao negotiated with the Charlotte Bobcats last fall.

According to NBA rules, a player can reject a trade for one year after a team matches a contract offer to keep him. The Bucks Charlie Bell, for example, could have rejected the trade to the Knicks that Larry Harris had reportedly negotiated before the trading deadline last February because the Bucks last summer matched an offer sheet from Miami to keep Bell. Now Varejao, a key piece of a potential trade for Michael Redd, could be off limits to the Bucks this summer unless Bucks GM John Hammond can make Varejao (and Fegan) happy. Remember that Fegan is also Yi's agent and that on the Bucks Yi and Varejao would be sharing power forward minutes.

Still, Akron's McManamon likes a trade for Redd, calling it "logical" and writing that "it all makes sense."

McManamon does however, have more bad news for the Bucks. Guard Boobie Gibson underwent ankle surgery this offseason and could be considered off the table. If Gibson is off limits it wouldn't leave Cleveland much to deal with beyond the Wally Szczerbiak contract and the #19 pick -- not enough of a return for Michael Redd.

I'm suddenly concerned that the Bob Boozer Jinx -- the Bucks jinx at the power forward position -- is once again working its crazy mojo.