Milwaukee Bucks Blog - The Bob Boozer Jinx : Playoff Props

Playoff Props: FOUL ON FISHER!

J.D. Mo — Wed, 28 May 2008 06:27:00 GMT

Lakers up two, 93-91, Spurs to inbound the ball with 2 seconds left and a chance to tie or win with a three ...

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What excuse could a referee possibly have for missing that call on Derrick Fisher? It's almost as bad as some of the noncalls against Philly in the 2001 Eastern Finals against the Bucks. We know the small market blues well here in Milwaukee, and now the NBA is telling me that the defending champion San Antonio Spurs can't get an obvious call on their home court against the Lakers?

No, Barry didn't sell the call like former Buck Sam Cassell would have. Sam, as Bucks fans have seen so many times, would have flailed into the leaping defender, lost the ball and crashed all over the floor to make sure a shooting foul was called. But why should Barry have had to sell it? Fisher whacked him in the head with his elbow as they bumped. Barry was not quite in the act of shooting when Fisher jumped into him but it was still a foul! Barry, one of the best free throw shooters in the game, should have been at the line for two free throws and a chance to send the game into overtime. The game ended with the Spurs having shot no free throws in the fourth quarter.

I'm not going to go into a paranoid rap about big markets vs. small markets (although I'm tempted to post the Jim Rome rant about the officiating in the 2001 East Finals) or the league wanting to ensure that Kobe and the Lakers make the finals to increase TV ratings and profits. I don't think Kobe and the Lakers need any help from the refs to get to the Finals, and neither should you. I would appreciate it, however, if the league I love and write about found a way to stop giving ammo to people who say (and believe it when they say it) that "the NBA is just like pro wrestling."

ESPN blogger Truehoop expressed similar sentiments after the game. Hear, hear. I second those.

Celtics-Pistons series in need of desperation: Some drama wouldn't hurt either. Neither team looks concerned at all about this series, though that should change tonight in pivotal Game 5 in Boston. I didn't like the Pistons chances against the Celtics and I still don't (the prediction evidence is way down at the bottom of the "Free Ray Allen" post) -- but here it is knotted up at 2-2. I'm fully prepared to be wrong about the Pistons, though with point guard Chauncey Billups hobbled, they'll need some playoff magic to keep their backs off the wall.

The East finals has been a showdown of the conference's best in need of a story. This past weekend, the going ticket was the rivalry between former UConn players Ray Allen and Rip Hamilton. While that was a fair enough tale for a holiday weekend, it didn't hold that much interest even for the AP writer of the story, who left his theme behind in favor of Ray's revelations about his gameday shooting rituals and other idiosyncrasies -- which are, in fact, more interesting than the Rip-Ray rivalry. Ray treats the art of shooting with a religious reverence, though it's a solitary pursuit mixed more with meditative science and superstition; fascinating stuff -- and still only a matter of time before all that juju starts to work for him.

Again, the Celtics don't seem desperate for Hall of Fame shooting from Ray, though it would give them some breathing room. The Pistons and Tayshaun Prince aren't likely to let Paul Pierce go off on them the way Pierce did against the Cavs; and if the Celtics are going to lose shooting 20-foot jumpers as they did in Game 4, Ray Allen should be the player shooting them, not Kevin Garnett. ...

Sam Cassell, the clown prince of the NBA, has been back in Doc Rivers' rotation the last two games. Doc went to journeyman guard (and former Buck) Eddie House off the bench with Paul Pierce as point forward for the better part of four games. The result was a widely spread clearout offense for Pierce that worked against the Cavs but runs into a wall against Detroit's better defenders (Prince again). Good, bad or hilarious, it's good to see Sam back on the court.

NBA DRAFT - The Chad Ford Watch: ESPN draft columnist Chad Ford has gathered more information about what NBA teams are looking for in the draft and has somehow found new incoherence regarding the draft prospects of the Milwaukee Bucks. In today's installment of the Chad Ford Watch, Ford has the Bucks taking Russell Westbrook out of UCLA. Why? Because Eric Gordon will be taken by the Clippers at #7. Why will the Clippers take Gordon when they wouldn't last week? Let's go now to Chad Ford:

"The Clippers need a point guard, but it may be a little high to take D.J. Augustin or Russell Westbrook here. With Corey Maggette likely hitting free agency, the Clippers will need a big-time scorer who can shoot and get to the rim. Gordon looked like a top-three talent before a late-season slump. He looks like a bigger, better version of Ben Gordon."

So, Chad, let me get this straight. The #7 pick is too high for a team looking for a point guard to take Westbrook, but it's OK for a team NOT looking for a point guard to take Westbrook at #8. That's incoherent. Before the lottery, this writer recalls that you had no problem drafting D.J. Augustin 7th when the #7 was the Bucks probable pick, but now #7 is too high for Augustin? That's even more incoherent. Am I foolish to expect these mock drafts to make sense or that you do, in fact, have "the latest word?" Chad, you're not giving me much incentive to sign up for ESPN Insider.

Ford doesn't seem to really know what many teams will do, which he as much as admits r.e. our Bucks:

"It's tough to project the Bucks right now. New GM John Hammond is ready to make changes, but where does he start? Their biggest need is at small forward, but this is probably too high for Donte Greene or Joe Alexander. One thing Hammond wants to emphasize is defense, and Westbrook could be an excellent addition. He can play both guard positions and be a Leandro Barbosa-type scoring threat."

The Bob Boozer Jinx take: If the Bucks want Leandro Barbosa, it would make more sense for John Hammond to trade Michael Redd to Phoenix for Boris Diaw and the real Barbosa than it would to draft a could-be, shorter version of Barbosa in this draft. Hammond helps his Bucks more by scouting out which teams might want the #8 pick, or certain players in the draft, and using the pick to complete trade possibilities (Dan Gadzuric and Bobby Simmons come to mind). As far as keeping the pick, this is looking like the type of draft where the best idea might be to take the biggest player available and hope he develops (this could be construed as an argument for DeAndre Jordan if it comes to that).

Playoff Props: Spurs Horry clean or dirty? Plus, more "What ifs" for Bucks fans

J.D. Mo — Mon, 19 May 2008 10:32:00 GMT

I'm finally ready to say it: This is not the Spurs year.

I've avoided blogging about the Spurs-Hornets series, which has come down to Game 7 in "the hive" in New Orleans tonight, because every year that I count the Spurs out, the defending champs manage to count themselves in. Pass on props to say, Manu Ginobli's magicianship or Tim Duncan's fundamental genius in the post, and the Spurs stumble. Talk up Bruce Bowen's defense and he fouls out.

I may be jinxing the Hornets, but I like the chances of Chris Paul and gang closing out the Spurs, if only because Paul's Hornets have been great at home (like all of the teams still playing this past weekend) and the officials will be all over the Spurs -- thanks to Robert Horry's illegal pick into airborne Hornets forward David West's ailing lower back. This is a context thing that goes back to last year when the Spurs bullied past the Suns in the Western Finals after Horry body-checked Steve Nash into the scorers' table (the Suns lost Amar Stoudamire in the aftermath for leaving the Suns bench). And now it's Horry again in a tight series with a controversial, if not dirty, play.

Or was it? Clean it was not -- Horry was called for a foul. But how dirty was it? Check it out:

The "What ifs" of the Larry Harris era: It was difficult to watch the Celtics-Cavs series and not think "What if the Bucks hadn't _________ ?" (Fill in the blank.) All told, there were five ex-Bucks on the Celtics-Cavs rosters. Big forward Joe Smith and guard Damon Jones for the Cavs; for the Celtics, guard Eddie House and Sam and Ray.

Game 7 featured a strong performance by House, who brought energy and experience and great shooting off the bench for the Celtics in the first half. In the second half, House, Ray and Rajon Rondo rotated in and out, taking care of the ball and leaving the game-saving for Paul Pierce (41 points). In 71 minutes, the three Celtics guards turned the ball over only four times (boxscore). The Celtics as a team turned it over only 10 times, to 14 by the Cavs. Game.

Bucks fans may vaguely remember House from the 2004-05 season. The Bucks picked him up in Dec. 2004 off the waiver wire and he played five games in a deep reserve role during the Bucks 9-20 start, logging a total of 42 minutes. I saw him against Philly in 2004, the game in which Allen Iverson went off for a Bradley Center record 54 points in a blowout of the Bucks, featuring atrocious defense by Bucks starting guards Mo Williams and Michael Redd. House looked pretty good firing threes off the bench, hitting two and scoring eight points in 17 minutes (boxscore).

House was waived in January, in favor of guards Erick Strickland, in his final year as a pro, and point guard Mike James, traded to Houston for Reece Gaines at the trading deadline. James would start for Toronto the next season while Gaines stuck around at the end of the Bucks bench for another year. Gaines hasn't played in the NBA since. Also on that 2004-05 team was 36-year-old Kendall Gill, in his final season as a pro.

Most Bucks fans would probably prefer to forget that season, the year of waiting for TJ Ford to recover from his spinal injury. Mo Williams (from Utah) and James (from Detroit) had been signed as free agents to fill in for TJ, who had no replacement because Harris had let TJ's backup, Damon Jones, go to Miami in free agency -- on a one-year, $2.5 million contract. By the second month of the season, Harris was still looking for guards on the waiver wire (Eddie House), who was just as good as any of them, yet didn't fit into Harris' equation at all, if Harris had an equation or a plan.

Can we finally say, as Bucks fans, that the T.J. Ford project was a waste of time? Injuries, free agent signings, a string of journeymen guards wearing Bucks uniforms. It was all so ... bad.

Ernie Grunfeld/Larry Harris didn't need to be shrewd to simply say "stop" after the 2003 Ray Allen trade and hold on to Sam Cassell, who had three years left on his contract. To a team trying to fill a void left by trading Allen, and with Gary Payton leaving in free agency, a veteran floor leader like Sam "I Am" was a necessity. It's not as though the Bucks were in rebuilding mode - Michael Redd, Tim Thomas, Desmond Mason and Toni Kukoc were coming back. Sam was 34-years-old, but the clown prince of basketball would play 218 games over the final three years of his contract. It defied all reason to opt for a rookie point guard going into the 2003-04 season.

But that's what the Bucks did. GM Grunfeld stayed on after the firing of coach George Karl, through the drafting of TJ -- and a week later swung the Sam Cassell/Ervin Johnson for Joe Smith trade. Almost as if to say, "we might have made a mistake," one of Larry Harris' first moves as GM was to get even more point guard help, signing Damon Jones to a free agent contract. The other guards were Strickland and Brevin Knight. Jones would lead the 2003-04 Bucks in assists.

With a rookie and Jones at point guard, Redd took over the offense. Forward Tim Thomas was a little more than disgruntled by mid-season and was traded for Keith Van Horne. TJ went down for the season with 26 games to go. The Bucks down the stretch squandered the #4 playoff seed and round one home court advantage, falling to 6th and a first round matchup with eventual NBA champion Detroit. None of this occurs if Sam Cassell is a Buck. But Sam "I Am" was busy making the All-Pro team in Minnesota, and, with Kevin Garnett, leading the T-Wolves to the best record in the league and the Western Conference championships.

What if the Cassell trade never happens?

The immediate benefit is no rookie point guard or string of undersized free agent point guards for three years. Some of those players are effective journeyman pros: Damon Jones, Mo Williams, even Mike James. TJ Ford, too. But the differences between them are slight. Case in point Sunday: Eddie House, not TJ Ford or Damon Jones, played a key role in winning a playoff game seven, to say nothing of Reece Gaines. It was as if Larry Harris was a kid in the little point guard candy store, trying different flavors of the same type of player.

Immediate problem number one is at power forward. Keep Sam and there is no Joe Smith. No great loss there. As steady rollin' as Joe is, he played only 2/3 of the games while a Buck and Harris gave up on him in 2006, trading him for Ruben Patterson, whom Harris let go a year later. Another waste. But the 2003-04 Bucks need a power forward (the Bucks were still paying millions to two PFs whose playing days ended in 2003, Anthony Mason and Jason Caffey.) Luckily, there are two players in the 2003 NBA draft (the Lebron draft) who can help: Nick Collison, a 6'9" forward out of Kansas, picked #12 by the Supersonics; and David West, five years away from being victimized by Robert Horry, 6'9" out of Xavier, drafted #18 by the Hornets. Hindsight being 20/20 and West the more athletic player, averaging 20pts and 9rbs per game for NO this season, the Bucks draft West over Collison. While West develops, the Bucks fill the void with journeyman veterans, and there are plenty of those in the NBA. The Bucks had one in 2003-04, Brian Skinner.

Cassell, Redd, Thomas, West, Mason, Kukoc, Skinner -- this is a playoff team, one that's good enough for a four spot but not good enough to beat Indiana or Detroit in conference semis. The Bucks still have a couple of problems. The centers are Joel Przybilla and Dan Gadzuric. Instead of trading Pryz to Atlanta, the Bucks hang on to him. They also hang on to Skinner heading into 2004-05, as they have no 2004 draft pick. At this point, Kohl is probably over the luxury tax because Caffey and Mason are still on the payroll. The Bob Boozer Jinx at work.

Cassell also presents a problem. He's a free agent in 2006, and would likely leave Milwaukee. Sam's happiness is a fleeting thing. Harris has to figure out how to get value out of Sam in a trade before it's too late. Good thing Timmy and Dez are around. Sam/Timmy or Sam/Mason is a nice package for any number of teams. Dallas is looking to move Michael Finley. Finley's expensive, but Sam/Timmy balance it out, and Harris has until February to make the deal. 2004-05 probably isn't a playoff year, and it's a good year to fall into the lottery. The Bucks are looking forward to 2005-06 when Caffey and Mason are finally off the books. Sometime during the year, Sam/Timmy are traded for a scoring small forward and possibly a reserve guard or PF. No danger of the forward being Bobby Simmons -- too much value in the Bucks package. Best option is Finley.

2005 draft, the immediate need is point guard now that Sam is gone. Center is the secondary need. This is a good thing because Deron Williams and Chris Paul are in the draft, and the Bucks are lucky. They don't get the #1 pick in the lottery but are lucky enough to get Deron Williams (like Utah, the Bucks have Deron rated higher than Chris Paul; it couldn't be helped). The future looks bright.

The big men are still a problem, and Zaza Pachulia is now in the mix. With no Bogut coming in, the Bucks match Atlanta's 4-year/$14 million offer to Zaza and keep him. Przybilla's still on the team and Gadzuric needs to be signed, but not for six years/$36 million. Maybe the Bucks don't keep all three. There's less money for free agent Redd, too, because the Bucks are paying the scoring small forward (Finley?) received in the Cassell trade. Besides, Cassell never allowed Redd to take over the offense and become a gaudy 25-ppg scorer. The reason this ever happened at all (it shouldn't have) was that Redd took advantage of rookie and free agent point guards, and inexperienced coaches. Sam has had a reality-inducing impact on Redd's game, and the Bucks save up to $20 million on Redd's 2005 contract.

The 2005-06 Bucks: Rookie Deron Williams PG; Michael Redd SG; Michael Finley SF; a developing David West PF; a goofy bunch of non-scoring centers but Zaza looks better and better, and he can shoot. Off the bench, Damon Jones/Mo Williams/maybe somebody like Marquis Daniels (from Dallas); Toni Kukoc is in his final year and the Bucks still have Desmond Mason. No, it's not a mighty bench, but the nucleus of the team with Deron at point is good enough to upset the Cavs in round one of the playoffs. Terry Porter, by the way, is still the coach. He even wins some 2005-06 Coach of the Year votes.

Bucks fans are downright optimistic about their team. They prove it by buying tickets. At the 1-4 spots, the Bucks have one of the better starting groups in the league. The Bucks and Cavaliers are the up and coming teams in the East, with the Baby Bulls and Wizards struggling to keep up. David West is becoming a force. Some observers say the team has "good chemistry" and should contend for years if the right piece or two is added. The 2006 draft is a lousy one, but the Bucks don't have a great pick anyway. A good big man would be nice, and that's something to work on.

Overall, the Bucks-o-sphere is a happy, happy place. ....

All because the Bucks held onto to their veteran point guard, Sam "I Am" Cassell, just a little while longer.

Playoff Props: Free Ray Allen!!!

J.D. Mo — Sun, 18 May 2008 21:53:00 GMT

PICKING UP GAME 7 ACTION at the start of the 3rd quarter, as Paul Pierce has hit another three for his 29th point to put the Celtics up by six. The forwards have dominated play all day and the shooting guards - Ray Allen and Wally Szczerbiak have been wise to stay out of the way. Lebron is hot to start the second half.

Rondo miss - "If you're Doc Rivers you've got to start thinking about Eddie House ..." ABC/ESPN analyst Jeff Van Gundy comments, as Ilgauskas collars the rebound. Lebron hits a three; Pierce counters with a three. The forwards are on FIRE. What a show.

In Milwaukee, the small forward position has been all but eliminated, but the position is alive and well in Game 7. Point guard play is still important - the edge all series goes to Delonte West - but the forward play has relegated the shooting guards to role players, the big men to pick and roll outlets. Cleveland and Lebron play this way every night, but Boston? The Cavs have upset the Celtics offensive balance, and now Boston is playing Cavs-ball. ... Or, maybe there was never really enough ball to go around in Boston. .... Escaping notice from analysts Van Gundy and Mark Jackson is that Doc Rivers has started big forward 38-year-old PJ Brown in the 2nd half. Celtics up eight.

Ray cannot hit!!! Two wide-open three-looks within a few possessions. If Ray drains those, the Cavs are reeling going into the 4th quarter. Instead, Ray's back on the bench with Rondo and the Celtics go back to the Eddie House one-guard offense, which means the ball will be in Pierce's hands for the next six minutes. Final seconds of the third quarter, Pierce at the line. Celtics by five going into the 4th.

Here's a link from Basketball Prospectus.

Prospectus says: "Mike Brown and Doc Rivers have set NBA basketball back about eight years, taking us back to the micro-managing control freaks who dominated the game at the beginning of the current decade."

This has been the type of series only Jeff Van Gundy and his point guard, Mark Jackson, sitting next to him for ABC/ESPN, could love. Van Gundy happens to be one of the coaches to whom bball prospectus is referring.

Another ex-Buck on the floor, Damon Jones from the 2003-04 team: "Damon Jones with a wide open look from the corner ...." It's off this time (he had made one earlier). Jones is filling in at guard for Boobie Gibson, sidelined with a separated shoulder.

8:30 remaining now, "Celtics trying to hold on."

Rondo back in the game, Allen and House on the bench.

Eddie House was a Buck for five games in 2004-05 season. Larry Harris picked him up off the waiver wire in Dec. 2004 then released him few weeks later, in favor of Mo Williams, Mike James and Erick Strickland? Five ex-Bucks on these teams. Ray and Sam and House for the Celtics (three of the four Boston guards who get PT). Joe Smith and Jones for the Cavs. Of the six guards playing today, three are ex-Bucks (Jones, Ray and House - Sam is on the bench). I can't resist thinking how the Bucks fate could've been different. Slickless Larry's overconfidence in Mo Williams and Michael Redd probably got the better of him in the end -- $142 million for those two. Meanwhile, here are all of these former Bucks guards in Boston, playing in a game that is bigger than any the NBA has put on the floor so far this season. ...

Pierce hits again - 39 for Pierce. Lebron hits a three. 83-80. Garnett dunks. Celts by five. James misses a three. Five minutes left.

An open Rondo misses. Delonte West has gone back to not guarding him, but by and large, Rondo is keeping his cool, not trying to do too much. I'm feeling that I've been too hard on Rondo, who's only in his second year. PJ Brown is there for the rebound and lay-in!!! Celtics by five. Brown has played nearly the entire second half at power forward/center with Garnett. Perkins and Big Baby have been spectators. Posey gets some minutes.

2:20 left. One-point game. Celtics ball. Doc Rivers goes to Ray Allen and Eddie House for the final two minutes. Free Ray Allen!!!

Jump ball. Celtics James Posey had time to get a timeout in that scrum - Ilgauskus never had a hand on the ball. Bad call by the officials. Could've been a foul on Z. On the tip, Pierce dives to the floor, saves it and gets the time out, even though Delonte West has his hands wrapped around the ball. Somebody chuck a rule book at these refs. 58 seconds left - Garnett ignores Ray on the wing and misfires a 20-footer. Bad judgement, KG. Free Ray Allen!!! KG redeems by grabbing a tough rebound on a James miss, dumps the outlet to Pierce and Pierce, making smart decisions all day, gets it upcourt to Ray, the best free throw shooter in the playoffs. Ray is fouled, hits two and is now 33 of 34 from the line in the playoffs. Celtics by five. 18 seconds left. Celtics hold on if they hit their free throws.

Pavlovic hits a three for Cleveland! Three point game with 9 seconds to go. Pierce now to the line. ... 8 seconds left. He hits two. The first one takes a crazy bounce and falls. Assist to the ghost of Red Auerbach. Cavs down five, needing a miracle. ... Game. 97-92 Celtics. Pierce finishes with 41, a game for the basketball gods.

The Detroit Pistons will practice in Detroit tonight (Chauncey Billups said at halftime that a practice is scheduled), and pack their bags for Beantown tomorrow. Tuesday night, 7:30 Central. Celtics-Pistons Game One. I don't like the Pistons chances at all in that series, and I don't see it going seven games.

Tomorrow night in the hive in New Orleans, the Hornets and Chris Paul try to hold of the defending champion Spurs, who, up to their usual dirty tricks, have disabled an opponent -- this time it's forward David West, popped in his ailing lower back by Robert Horry, the culprit who last season body-checked Steve Nash in the Suns-Spurs Western Conference Finals. ... Dare I say it? This year is not the Spurs year. ... There, I said it.

Playoff Props: Celtics-Cavs Game 7

J.D. Mo — Sun, 18 May 2008 12:10:00 GMT

Celtics-Cavs Game 7 today, just as Al in Ohio would've predicted if he had made a prediction that didn't give him an out.

For Game 7, Al's going out on a limb:

"I'll take the Cavs and the points!"

There's that Cleveland optimism again. The Celtics are giving eight to the spread.

This game is a tough call. Can the Celtics and the ghost of Red Auerbach pull out another defensive gem in a second consecutive Game 7? Can Lebron finally shake Paul Pierce and dominate? Which Rajon Rondo will show up? When will Ray Allen detonate and have a Ray Allen game? (If he does it's over).

The best thing the Celtics have going for them is Kevin Garnett and Cavs guard Daniel "Boobie" Gibson's separated shoulder. Gibson, the Cavs best three-point shooter, is out, leaving it up to Cleveland's starting guards, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West, to make up the difference. (Note: Gibson's injury probably isn't serious enough to rule out the Michael Redd trade.)

"With Gibson out and the Celts seeming to have figured out how to control Z, I'm not sure LeBron can do it himself on the road," Al says.

Lebron's done it before, last year against the Pistons, and that's where Cavs fans place their hopes. But they also have a wild card that could flip the Cavs way -- Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo. Doc Rivers has completely ignored my advice to play Sam Cassell when the offense is struggling -- in fact, he's done the opposite and went so far as to bench Sam in Game 6. Look what happened -- the Celtics went nine minutes without a bucket -- that's right, NINE minutes, spanning the last six minutes of the first half and the first three of the second.

The Cavs outscored the Celtics 24-2 in that stretch, which began when Doc rested Ray in the second quarter and continued until Ray hit a layup in the third. The Celtics never recovered. It was a replay of the game in Atlanta when the Celtics went eight minutes without a field goal in the fourth quarter, yet Doc stuck with Rondo until the final minutes of the game when he pulled him for Cassell, too late.

True, this Doc Rivers version of the Muhammad Ali rope-a-dope (Doc's version doesn't work) seems to be a road phenomena. But if it's sink or swim with Rondo again today, Doc Rivers and his point guard may be the next best thing the Cavs have going for them after Lebron.

Lakers almost RULE!!! The Lakers were one better than the Celtics, Cavs, Spurs and Hornets. Kobe and friends avoided game seven and won a game on the road. Lakers fans will now demand that commish David Stern cancel the rest of the playoffs and declare the Lakers champs. Why? Because its OVER!!! LAKERS RULE!!! I hate to admit it, but the Lakers do seem to be separating from the rest of the pack in the West.

To me the reason these series' have been so close (including the Pistons-Magic series, which was much closer than 4-1) is the obvious one: there's not much of a gap separating the top eight teams from one another. Top 10 if one includes a healthy Houston Rockets and the Phoenix Suns. The Jazz were very close to pushing the Lakers to game seven, and only needed to shoot a little bit better than a terrible 33% in Game 6 to get there.

The boo birds were out in Utah, with Andrei Kirelenko (passport-gate) and Carlos "brick shot" Boozer taking the brunt of it. (Boozer reminds me so much of Terry Cummings - including the bricks - that I wonder sometimes if it isn't the 1987-89 Bucks I'm watching during Utah telecasts; Okur plays like a lot like Jack Sikma, and Kirilenko's a dead ringer for Fred Roberts; it's kinda scary).

Still, I'm sticking to my week-ago rant about Bucks fans forgetting the Jazz as a Bucks trading partner. Utah's nearly on par with the Lakers now, and I don't foresee Jerry Sloan messing with a good thing in the offseason. Sloan's not one to panic - and he doesn't have a history of making big trades.

Forget the Jazz as a Bucks trading partner

J.D. Mo — Mon, 12 May 2008 08:55:00 GMT

Can you picture Michael Redd blocking Kobe Bryant's shot? Neither can I.

Andrei Kirilenko did it twice in overtime Sunday in pivotal Game 4 against the Lakers, and the Jazz held home court in the seven-game series, winning one of the best games of the 2008 playoffs. The Lakers and Jazz now go back to LA with Kobe damaged and limping, and the series even-up at 2-2.

Utah gets mentioned quite a bit by Bucks fans as a possible trade partner for the Bucks this offseason. Bucks fans like most of the Jazz roster, for one; but the main impetus is that forward Kirilenko, the Russian AK47, asked to be traded before the season started, citing concerns about basketball life as a "robot" in Utah coach Jerry Sloan's system. Kirilenko's contract matches Redd's - 3 more years, $51 million.

I also suspect that many fans probably thought the Lakers would jettison the Jazz from the playoffs in five games, and that Utah management might panic in the offseason, a la Dallas owner Mark Cuban. It didn't happen, and that earns the Jazz the Bob Boozer Jinx playoff prop they've been fighting for all season.

I'm with those who like this deal. Kirilenko for Redd, straight up. Done deal. AK47 would look great in a Bucks uniform. It wouldn't give the Bucks a payroll break, but GM John Hammond could (and probably will anyway) seek precious salary flexibility by finding trades for Mo Williams and/or Bobby Simmons and by appealing to Dan Gadzuric's better angels to admit that his contract is ridiculous and cut $12 million out of the remaining $20 million (over three years).

Unfortunately, there's a big roadblock to the Redd-Kirilenko trade: It takes two NBA teams to make a player trade, and the odds of Utah being willing partners in this deal are about the same as the odds that the Jazz's Mormon owner will convert to Judaism.

The Jazz have plenty of three-point shooters - Deron Williams, center Mehmet Okur and one of the best, Kyle Korver. Kirilenko, Matt Harpring and Ronnie Brewer are decent shooters too, but play closer to the basket, as does Carlos Boozer (no relation to Bob Boozer). With the exception of Korver, they are all hardnosed defenders, with the spidery-long arms of 6'9" Kirilenko coming in handy, especially when Kobe is playing on one leg.

The challenge in the West over the next few years is how to contend with Kobe, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and the Lakers. The Jazz are contending with the Lakers now, and Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko and Korver are just entering their primes. Harpring is the only Jazz player over 30 getting PT (he's 31). The younger guys, Williams, Brewer and forward Paul Millsap will only get better, and Deron's already All-NBA. Brewer, the starting shooting guard, is only 22.

I don't foresee the Jazz breaking up this team, unless it's to dump an unhappy Kirilenko to create salary cap room to pay the younger players. Point guard Williams, the #3 pick in the Bogut draft, is on the same contract schedule as the Bucks center, and gets very expensive in 2009-10 (figure a minimum 20 percent of Utah's salary cap). No way the Jazz make a trade that gives them no more cap flexibility than they have now, much less trade an active, athletic defender like Kirilenko for Michael Redd, who no one has ever accused of being any of those things.

In fact, I can't see the Jazz having any interest in any Bucks players (Mo started his career in Utah) unless it's Dan Gadzuric. Every team in the NBA could use a marauding 7-foot backup center/luxury tax burden who can run, right?

GM Hammond's got a tough job.