Milwaukee Bucks Blog - The Bob Boozer Jinx : Sam Dalembert

Keeping pace: Bucks vs. 76ers notes... Bogut injury watch

J.D. Mo — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 19:47:00 GMT

Bucks (17-19) vs. Sixers (14-20), 7pm @ Bradley Center

... The latest on Bogut's back is that it's day-to-day, and the Bucks don't know whether he'll be able to play tonight against Philly and his nemesis, Sam Dalembert. It doesn't sound good. Bogut now says that in addition to his back spasms, his hip is bothering him too.

The Yao factor: Dalembert and the Sixers faced Yao Ming and the Rockets Tuesday in Philly and won. Bogut was exhausted by the 4th quarter in Houston last week, having played Tim Duncan and Yao on consecutive nights. In fact, AB hasn't been the same since. The Sixers played Duncan and the Spurs Sunday, so Dalembert and the Sixers' other tower, Theo Ratcliff, should be well worn down by the time they get to Milwaukee. .... In addition to the Bucks game being the second of a back-to-back for the Sixers, it is the 8th in a stretch where the Sixers have played in 8 different cities, seven since X-mas.

Road weary, Yao'd out -- the Bucks should grab any edge they can against the Sixers, an overtly athletic gang that can't shoot straight but has been tough on the Redd-ites. Last season the Sixers exploited the Bucks lack of athleticism better than any other team in the league -- and they did it again in Philly Dec. 17.

It was coach Scott Skiles' first "really bad taste in the mouth" game (the other was Saturday in Charlotte). Philly, like Toronto and the Nets (the Bucks opponent Friday) is the Bucks competition for the lower tier Eastern Conference playoff spots. Like Toronto, the Sixers are looking to turn their season around after a rough start in which their coach (Mo Cheeks) was fired.

Pace is the key: The Sixers attack defensively and race the full court with Andre Iguodala, Lou Williams and rookie Marreese Speights blowing past slower, plodding teams, which the Bucks can still be when the jumpshots aren't falling and the offense stagnates around Redd. The Sixers kicked it into overdrive vs. the Bucks Dec. 17th after power forward Elton Brand separated his shoulder fouling Luc Richard Mbah a Moute on a drive. Integrating Brand's postup game into the offense had slowed the Sixers down, and they've picked up the pace while he's been recovering from the injury. These Sixers get first to a lot of loose balls and turn on the speed after long rebounds.

Scott Skiles after the Sixers loss: "We had a bunch of guys who looked like they didn't feel like playing from the opening tip. We were just heavy-legged, slow-footed. We couldn't get up and down the floor and had tremendous trouble guarding them. We got exactly what we deserved."

Bogut, at least, had an excuse: He woke up the day of the Philly game with severe back pains and learned later that two of his vertabrae were "stuck," as he described it on his blog. Though Bogut has only missed these last two games, he has struggled to get game-ready for the last three weeks. No word yet whether he'll play tonight. It would be too bad if he didn't -- Bogut's due for a good game against Dalembert.

Bogut's avg. line vs. Dalembert, last three meetings: 4 pts, 4.7 rebs, 4.7 assists, 1 block, 2 steals and 3.7 turnovers per game. Here's a good Philly fan take on the ups and downs of Dalembert from The Recliner GM, where I found the above photo of Dalembert blocking Devin Harris' shot last April.

Charlie Bell has played very well lately and seems to have finally recovered from ankle and knee problems that have dogged him since the start of the season. Bell hit big 4th quarter shots in the wins over the Spurs and Raptors, and, generally, has been the Bucks most consistent player the last five games. Bell's 9-16 from 3-point-land in those games. He played well in Philly Dec. 17 with 14 points; the player to watch off the Bucks bench in tonight's game.

TRADE RUMORS

Bucks request waivers on Austin Croshere: Oh, let the trade speculation fly ... Damon Jones suited up Monday for the first time but did not play. Croshere's salary ($797,000) was not guaranteed, so releasing him is, at first glance, a money-saving move. The Bucks now have 14 players on the roster. With Bogut and reserve forward Malik Allen out Monday with injuries (Malik has missed 13 of 14 games with fractured ribs), Jones took the 12th active spot on the Bucks bench.

Tom Enlund interviews John Hammond, and does his best to get to the bottom of what releasing Croshere might mean for the immediate future. No luck, beyond "we're keeping our options open." Enlund points out that Croshere's salary would have become guaranteed in a few days, by NBA rule, so the Bucks saved a good half million or so by waiving him. It also frees a roster spot should the Bucks trade one player for two ... or three.

Steady rollin' Joe: Big forward Joe Smith is the kind of player that many Bucks fans would like to see return to Milwaukee, even for a few months. Joe is playing out the final year of his contract in Oklahoma City, where he went last August from Cleveland as part of the Mo Williams-Luke Ridnour trade. Two weeks ago, it was speculated that OK City could be a destination for Charlie V, who doesn't appear to be in the Bucks future plans, and guard Tyronn Lue, in exchange for one of the Thunder's power forwards: Smith, Nick Collison or Chris Wilcox. ... But the Bucks aren't the only team interested. Apparently the Celtics had hoped the Thunder would buy out Smith's $4.5m contract so they could add his good shooting and veteran defense for their playoff run. No go for Joe -- the Thunder prefer things the way they are. The Boston Globe also reports that Collison, Wilcox, forward Damien Wilkins and guard Earl Watson are Thunder players other teams are likely to pursue this month and next.

45 days until the Feb. 19 trading deadline, and the tradewinds are blowing all over the league. The latest out of Cleveland, from News-Herald columnist Bob Finnan, is that the Cavs, the team that seems to have everything except a healthy center (Big Z Ilgauskas will miss most of this month with an ankle injury), may be looking for a shooting guard after all. Could the Cavs be losing faith in shooter Daniel Gibson off the bench? The Cavs are still interested in Michael Redd, of course, should the Bucks be in the market for teams with an interest in Redd.

Jermaine O'Neal: Finnan also reports that the Raptors have contacted "at least a half dozen teams" looking for takers for O'Neal, acquired last summer in a trade with the Indiana Pacers for T.J. Ford. The Raptors had hoped O'Neal would make them an East playoff contender but he can't stay healthy -- which the Raptors knew before they traded for him. Bucks should stay very far away from any O'Neal offers, unless the Raptors are willing to take Dan Gadzuric for the next two-and-a-half years. Even so, if Bucks GM Hammond was considering a deal like this, one in which the Bucks would have to give up multiple players for one remarkably expensive ($21 million!!) player, would he have waived Croshere? Probably not.

A deal Toronto may be able to make: Small forward Josh Howard from the Dallas Mavs for PF/C Andrea Bargnani, and shooter Anthony Parker. The trade rumors coming out of Toronto have been nonstop since December, as it's obvious the Raptors are not going to sit still with a team that is less competitive after the O'Neal trade than it was last season. Most of the roster is on the trading block.

Thinking about how the Bucks might view the availability of all of these Raptors: Bargnani, the 2006 #1 overall draft pick and an excellent shooter, would be an interesting complement to Bogut. However, acquiring him would create an almost desperate need for a more athletic banger at power forward to help in the paint.

Cuban on buying the Cubs: Josh Howard's not the foremost thing on Dallas Mavs owner Mark Cuban's mind. Cuban in the last few days backed off on his bid to buy the Cubs -- but don't read my explanation of what went down: Cuban yesterday posted his thoughts on the Cubs negotiations at his blogsite, blog maverick. Simply titled "The Cubs," it might be the most interesting sports story to read today (after the Bob Boozer Jinx of course) -- especially for Brewers fans wanting to keep up with the goings-on of those hated North Siders. How often does one get a billionaire sports owner's first hand account of his attempt to buy a baseball team? Good stuff.

Long-term deal for Bogut: What's it worth?

J.D. Mo — Thu, 24 Apr 2008 17:50:00 GMT

Bucks center Andrew Bogut wants a long-term contract extension, up to five more years, and his agent this week said the Bucks and new GM John Hammond seem positive about getting a deal done. Bogut's improved play and 38 double-double games being the bright spot in another dismal season, this qualifies as good news.

So what is the 23-year-old Bogut -- the 12th leading rebounder in the NBA, and an improved post player both offensively and defensively (9th in the league in blocked shots; 3rd in offensive charges drawn) -- worth after three seasons? How much can the Bucks afford?

The latter question is hardly complicated: the Bucks can't afford much in the next two years given the salaries on the current roster. The Bucks have already picked up the fourth year options of Bogut's and Charlie Villanueva's 2005 rookie contracts. Paying them both will bring the Bucks right up to next year's salary cap, with about $9 million or so to play with before hitting the league's luxury tax limit, likely to be about $70 million. The tax is $1 dollar tax for every $1 dollar over the limit.

Slickless Larry Harris had this all worked out. The Bucks were supposed to win this year and next year with the current roster, and Larry didn't schedule in any of that "salary cap flexibility" GM's desire. This means that there's very little chance the Bucks will tear up the $6.3 million agreement for next season (they could). There will be no cap room in July to pay him more -- unless Bobby Simmons suddenly quits to go play in Albania, which would free up $10 million. Or if Hammond trades Michael Redd for Miami's lottery balls which would free up $15 million or so.

Now to the question: What's Bogut worth?

Let's start by looking at the top salaries in the NBA this season.

As you can see, the All-Star, All-NBA centers and big forward/center types (Amare Stoudamire, Yao Ming, Paul Gasol, Rasheed Wallace, Chris Bosh) are grouped 20th-30th on the list, making between $13.1 (Bosh) and $13.8 million (Stoudamire). (Yes, they will all make less money this year than Michael Redd, believe it or not).

Veteran champions like Shaq, Tim Duncan and Ben Wallace have much more lucrative deals, but their contracts won't tell us much about Bogut. A center not on the list who will be next season: Dwight Howard of Orlando, the league's leading rebounder for three years running and a near sure-thing 1st Team All-NBA selection. Howard made $6 million this year in his fourth year. Before this season, he was in Bogut's contract situation, and the Magic extended his contract five years beyond this one for an additional $85 million.

Howard, the #1 pick in the 2004 draft, creates a long shadow for Bogut (#1 in 2005) in this extension game. So does Yao Ming, who signed an extension with Houston for 5 years and $75 million in 2005.

Howard at an average of $17 million per year for five years,

Yao at $15 million per year for five set the standard for young NBA centers in the extension era. Bogut doesn't play at their All-NBA heights (among centers, only Stoudamire does and he's moved to power forward on the Suns), nor to the level of the big men currently in the $13-$14 million range (Stoudamire again), nor can the Bucks assume he will be playing like a $13 million dollar star even in two years. As well as Bogut has played at times, would you want to bring the Bucks 54-110 record over the last two years to the bargaining table?

Bogut's agent can point to a bad contract, like the one center Eric Dampier signed with Dallas ($10.5 million this year) and say, "Andrew should be paid more than Dampier now."

The Bucks can look at New Orleans' Tyson Chandler's $10.5 million in 2008 and say, "Chandler's the 3rd-leading rebounder in the league, and the Hornets are winning in the playoffs." It's arguable whether Bogut is underpaid.

Where does the league's 12th leading rebounder on a losing team fit in? Because of his young age, Somewhere in line with Chandler's six-year $63 million deal, which, only two years ago was considered a glorious waste of money in Chicago.

Cleveland Center Zydrunus Ilgauskus will make $10.1 million this year. At 32, Ilgauskus may be on the down side in his career, but he outplayed Bogut two of three games this year (the game logs at basketball-reference.com ain't pretty). Bogut should surpass Ilgauskus soon, but next year? Or the year after?

Philadelphia's Sam Dalembert, who dominated Bogut defensively in three of four games this year, has a six-year $64 million deal. At $10.25 million this year Dalembert's right where he should be in the Ilgauskus-Chandler range -- though many in Philly view him as overpaid. And Dalembert's a much better defender than Bogut.

Bogut has improved each year, true, but he's only recently moved up among the Top Ten centers' in the league, and he's much closer to #10 than to Howard at #1. Like it or not, Dalembert and Ilgauskus are Bogut's peers in the Eastern Conference paint. If the Bucks can keep the first three years of the contract extension in the $10-12 million per range, they've got a good deal. Over five years -- what Bogut wants -- the Bucks should look to keep it around $60 million.

At five years, $65 million, a Bogut contract begins to look too lavish for what he's accomplished. Sure, if Bogut's a mutliple-time All-Star by 2011 and 2012 when Bogut is 26-27, in his prime -- and the Bucks are winning -- $13-14 million a year won't look so gaudy. But that's a big "if." Sign Bogut at $70 million for five years now and fans will ask why he's getting a contract in Yao's neighborhood.

With next year scheduled to be $6.3 million, adding 5 years and $60-63 million to it would bring Bogut's six-year terms into the $66-69 million range, which is where the Bucks should keep it. (The more I think about it, six years - $68 million sounds more than fair, but why do I have this feeling it will be more? Just a feeling.)

There's no reason for Hammond to break the bank, not now with a player who still has much to prove on a team that is still so incomplete. The Bucks will need plenty of salary cap space to grow in the years-to-come; it's a good time to find out how serious our 23-year-old center is when he says his goal is to win in Milwaukee.

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Some unabashed hype is needed in these not-so-private negotiations, and that's what agents are for. This is what they're saying in Melbourne, Australia, verbatim from the text of the press release put out by Bogut's supremely confident agent, David Bauman:

"In 226 career NBA games, the Melbourne, Australia native has improved
in each season and demonstrated that he is one of the top young Centers in
the NBA. In fact, Bogut's improvement has made it a near certainty that the
Milwaukee Bucks will seek to sign the center to a long-term extension, on
July 1, in order to secure one of the key foundations of their team for the
next six years. Bogut, along with Chris Paul and Deron Williams, are the
star players from the 2005 NBA Draft class."

Leave it to the sports agent to start an argument, especially with CP3's MVP-like season, Deron's All-NBA year and Laker fans talking up injured Andrew Bynum as the best center of the 2005 draft (and worried whether he'll ask for a $75 million-plus extension this offseason). It'll be interesting to see how Bynum and Bogut's contract extensions pan out.

And leave it Foxsports-australia to ramp up Bogut's contact numbers. In its coverage of this story, fox-aussie pegged Bogut's new contract "in the region of $63-79 million." The headline? "Bogut to earn the Big Bucks" ... Fox does realize Larry Harris was fired, don't they?