Milwaukee Bucks Blog - The Bob Boozer Jinx : Utah Jazz

NBA Playoffs: How the West will be won...

J.D. Mo — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 20:49:00 GMT

Was the West better than the East this season? The records say so, but don't believe all the hype about how tough the West is.

There are six patsies at the bottom of the Western conference who padded those 50-win records nicely all season long -- and let's not forget that the Bucks had more trouble with the T-Wolves than they did with the Mavs, Rockets, Spurs, Nuggets and Jazz. ...

It's the matchups, you say? Chicago and Philly both had losing records against the East but won vs. the West -- that's how they got to .500. The Cavs, Magic, Bobcats, Wizards and our very own Bucks fared better against the West than they did in their own conference. The Celtics beat everybody but the Lakers this season, but did win at a higher percentage in the East. The Hawks won against both conferences, too.

How to cut through the schedule disparity? The road test. There are five teams in the NBA with great road records. The Lakers (29-12); the Cavs, Celtics and Magic (27-14); and the Spurs (26-15). The only other team in the NBA with a winning road record is Chris Paul's Hornets (21-20), who can beat almost anybody, anytime, anywhere as long as CP3 is on the court.

In the West, this means that only one team has a decent shot at beating the Lakers and their home court advantage: Tim Duncan's Spurs, who will be playing without Manu Ginobili in this year's playoffs. The rest? I'd take the Hawks in a 7-game series against them, more often than not. Don't let ESPN make me out to be a liar. How many Pistons games did that network foist upon us this season? 'Nuff said.

Important note: In case you missed it in Dan's morning coffee, COED Magazine yesterday posted its "Dancers of the 2009 NBA Playoffs Showdown". Did you realize that some teams allow women with *** implants on their dance squads? I just assumed there was a rule against that. Apparently not in Atlanta.

Round 1 Previews - The West

Rockets vs. Trailblazers: I feel bad for Yao Ming. He's never been out of Round 1 of the playoffs, losing four times. In fact, the Rockets haven't been out of Round 1 since Stockton and Malone beat them in 1997 for the right to play Jordan's Bulls in the "one for the thumb" NBA Finals. Tracy McGrady is done for the season, but in these 2009 playoffs, Yao's got Ron Artest to help Shane Battier in the dirty tricks defense department -- and this Rockets team is rock solid in the frontcourt. The backcourt is shaky by NBA standards, but this series won't be won on the perimeter by the young, inexperienced Blazers, as good as shooting guard Brandon Roy & Co. can be.

An experience-building series for rookie center Greg Oden and the Blazers. Rockets in 6.

Mavericks vs. Spurs: As I mentioned in the pre-mumble, the Spurs are a 26-15 road team. They also played the first quarter of the season without Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker and still managed to start 12-9. The Bucks beat the Spurs in that stretch without Michael Redd, a feat a dozen NBA teams couldn't match, healthy or not. Tim Duncan really does make that much of a difference against most of the league. The Spurs will miss Ginobili, but without him they're still better than the rest of the sub-Laker west. Tony Parker is playing as well as ever, shouldering some of Ginobili's scoring, and he has good help in Roger Mason and Michael Finley. On the Dallas side, Jason Kidd still hasn't proven why it was a good idea to trade Devin Harris for him last season.

Dirk Nowitzki should be able to twist and turn this series back to Dallas for a game 6. The Spurs will end it there. Spurs in 6. Unless, or course, I'm completely wrong here, and Kidd finally shows why trading Devin was a good idea. If that's the case, Mark Cuban, Spurs in 7.

Hornets vs. Nuggets: Here's the upset of Round 1 in the making. Even Lakers fans have realized that Chris Paul finds ways to win NBA games. The referees are so in awe of him, that they're often too dazzled in transition to whistle while he walks. Can you blame them? CP3 is the nightmare Round 1 matchup for George Karl's savior, Chauncey Billups. But then, CP3 is a nightmare for every team.

Did you know that Peja Stojakovic is only 31? It's true, though he plays like he's 35 or 36. Denver's Carmelo Anthony has gotta like this matchup at small forward. James Posey should get a lot of minutes off the bench in relief of Stojakovic in this series. All-Star David West should continue to score at will for the Hornets. And George Karl will find a way to screw this up, right skipper? (Thanks again need4sheed).

Is Chris Paul over George and Carmelo really an upset? It could be a sweep.(Bias warning). Hornets in 6.

Jazz vs. Lakers: Somebody had to be 8th. I thought it was the Mavs' destiny, but the Jazz lost 7 of their last 10 to fall to the Lakers in Round 1. I don't like the Lakers any more than most non-Laker fans. ("LAKERS RULE!!!") But the team has earned its share of respect. Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol are the best 1-2 punch in the NBA. After the Celtics bullied them in the 2008 NBA Finals, the Lakers got tougher. Backup guard Trevor Ariza is killing teams off the bench. Andrew Bynum is back in the paint -- but the Lakers never needed Bynum to win the West. They need Bynum to beat the Cavs, Celtics or Magic in the Finals.

The Jazz are the same Jazz that dragged the Lakers back to Salt Lake City for a game 6 in the 2008 West semifinals - and lost handily. Deron Williams is still an All-Pro; Carlos Boozer is back from his quadriceps injury; AK47, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver make for a strong bench; Mehmet Okur is still at center ... On paper the Jazz appear to be a good mix of power, great shooting and savvy point guard play, coached by one of the best there is, Jerry Sloan.

But they're not the same Jazz. Things have gone stale in Utah. Lakers won't sweep this, only because Derrick Fisher can't guard Deron. Lakers in 5.

Andrew Bogut's blog: Bucks center battling through severe lower back pain

J.D. Mo — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 01:23:00 GMT

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!! And thanks for stopping by in the Milwaukee Bucks-o-sphere during this busy week of festivities (hope yours isn't too hectic). While I'm making a list and checking it twice for my "gifts the Bucks can give their fans this Christmas" blog, check out this firsthand injury update Bucks center Andrew Bogut provided Sunday on his blog.

Bogut feels like he's "a hundred years old" due to some very painful lower back problems he's been having since last Wednesday -- bad news for the Bucks as they prepare to take on the Utah Jazz at the Bradley Center tonight (tip off at 7:10pm). Bogut describes in excruciating detail the nature of the injury, the treatment and the pain, which began in Philly as he was waking up in his hotel bed.

After receiving chiropractic treatment later that day, Bogut learned that "a couple" of his vertabrae were "stuck together." This is causing severe pain from his lower back down through his hips. Bogut was sluggish in the Philly game and had trouble getting to loose balls and rebounds but appeared to do a better job battling through the injury Friday and Saturday against the Knicks and the Clippers. The credit, Bogut writes, goes to the Bucks training staff:

"I was lucky enough to be able to play through the last 3 games with it, mainly because our trainers did a great job of getting me warm and loose enough to go out there and perform, oh along with some sort of magic pain pill which works wonders. The only problem is waking up the next morning and needing a wheel chair for the first hour or two."

Did you say "magic pain pill" Bogues? If it works wonders, has it had an impact on your free throw shooting? Bingo. Including the Utah game (won by the Bucks 94-86), Bogut's 9 of 13 from the line (69.3%) in his four magic pill games. That's a big improvement over the 52.1% he was shooting this season and better than the 58.9% he had shot in his career pre-magic pill. May this magical wonder never cease.

Note: The link to 'Drew's website takes you to an entrance portal where you'll be asked to register. It's worth the while, and I wish I'd posted about the site back in September (sorry about that -- I was undercover trying to find out why the Bucks drafted Joe Alexander; as you know, I came up with nothing but a lot of grumbling about Brett Favre and the Brewer bats). From here on out, you'll find a link to Bogut's site in my blogroll in the panel to your right. The guilt is killing me.

Bogut blogs fairly regularly as far as NBA blogs go, mostly to give his Australian fans a window into the life of an NBA player. He also features interviews with other Australian ballers playing around the world. He's promised an update soon on Brad Newley (Houston Rockets property currently playing in Greece.) You may remember Newley from Bogut's Australian National Team. Note to John Hammond: The 6' 6" Newley's the basketball version of a U.S. Marine and is perhaps the best all-around Australian player in history. He can also knock down a shot and would be a great fit on Skiles' Bucks.

Bucks vs. Jazz: As I wrote on our fan message boards here at Sportsbubbler, I'm not yet sold on the Bucks ticket to the playoffs, despite the blowout wins against the Knicks and Clippers over the weekend. The only teams with winning records the Bucks have beaten so far are Miami without big forward Udonis Haslem and the Spurs without Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker.

Of course, the Bucks have had plenty injuries of their own. Michael Redd missed 14 games making a long, slow recovery from a high ankles sprain; Charlie Bell was playing hurt the entire time Redd was out and has missed 6 games since Redd's return; Luke Ridnour started the season with back trouble and has missed 3 games; and Charlie Villanueva has missed 4 games.

The Bucks went into Atlanta without Bogut after he smashed his knee taking a charge defending Dwight Howard (Bogut missed three games) and still came within two in the final minute. But that's life in the NBA -- 18-10 Atlanta isn't exactly formidable without its rugged forward, Josh Smith, and he was out that game too. The Hawks are 11-5 with Smith in the lineup but a still-respectable 7-5 without him.

More than anything, the meltdown in the 4th quarter against Philly last week kicked some of the sand out of my optimism about the Bucks. Did the loss in Philly tell us more about the Bucks than the blowouts against the Knicks and Clippers? When do the Bucks start looking to making a trade (or two) that might help vault the team from the land of NBA mediocrity?

These next four games vs. Utah tonight and Detroit Saturday at the BC; and games vs. the Spurs and Rockets in Texas next week should give Bucks fans the answers to questions about the team. All four teams have winning records, though the Pistons have played sub-.500 ball since acquiring Allen Iverson -- a fact that isn't so relevant for the Bucks because Iverson is a nightmare matchup for the Bucks guards. The Answer killed the Bucks off the bench in the Bucks-Pistons first meeting.

The 17-12 Jazz and 15-11 Pistons have beaten the Bucks once apiece this season, in their buildings. The Bucks beat the 18-10 Spurs at the BC in November while Ginobili and Parker were recovering from ankle injuries. The Bucks have not yet played the Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, Milwaukee native Carl Landry and the 19-10 Rockets.

Tonight the Jazz will be playing without All-Pro power forward Carlos Boozer (no relation to our Bob Boozer). Even without Boozer, the Jazz are a hardnosed playoff team with a great coach in Jerry Sloan. In Boozer's absence big forward Paul Millsap has been a force, filling the void by averaging 15 pts, 9 rebs so far this season.

The Jazz are playing the last game of a 5-game road trip East tonight, but the Bucks can't bring their Philly game and expect to earn their first win against a playoff-tested opponent. Bogut's back problems won't make the task any easier.

Well, now the latest from the BC is that Utah Center Mehmet Okur will not play due to back spasms. It does pay sometimes to have a tough Aussie in the post, and a bottle of magic pain pills.

Suddenly, the Jazz game is one the Bucks should win in front of the home fans.

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Wow, these guys may be one of the greatest shows on earth. The Rim Rockers, Milwaukee's own amazing flying basketball circus, set a number of world records Saturday during halftime of the Bucks-Clippers game. An official from the Guinness Book of World Records was on hand to record it all.

Unfortunately, the folks who run the Bucks website are not so amazing. I can't give you the link to the video of the Rim Rockers gravity-defying performance because the so-called link to it on the Bucks official website goes to video highlights of the Bucks' Scott-Skiles-aggravating meltdown in Philly last week.

This dunk in the Bucks.com photo at left was one for the Guinness book: It was the highest 360-degree backflip dunk in the history of recorded trampoline-aided backflip dunks.

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Playoff Props: Celtics-Cavs Game 7

J.D. Mo — Sun, 18 May 2008 12:10:00 GMT

Celtics-Cavs Game 7 today, just as Al in Ohio would've predicted if he had made a prediction that didn't give him an out.

For Game 7, Al's going out on a limb:

"I'll take the Cavs and the points!"

There's that Cleveland optimism again. The Celtics are giving eight to the spread.

This game is a tough call. Can the Celtics and the ghost of Red Auerbach pull out another defensive gem in a second consecutive Game 7? Can Lebron finally shake Paul Pierce and dominate? Which Rajon Rondo will show up? When will Ray Allen detonate and have a Ray Allen game? (If he does it's over).

The best thing the Celtics have going for them is Kevin Garnett and Cavs guard Daniel "Boobie" Gibson's separated shoulder. Gibson, the Cavs best three-point shooter, is out, leaving it up to Cleveland's starting guards, Wally Szczerbiak and Delonte West, to make up the difference. (Note: Gibson's injury probably isn't serious enough to rule out the Michael Redd trade.)

"With Gibson out and the Celts seeming to have figured out how to control Z, I'm not sure LeBron can do it himself on the road," Al says.

Lebron's done it before, last year against the Pistons, and that's where Cavs fans place their hopes. But they also have a wild card that could flip the Cavs way -- Celtics point guard Rajon Rondo. Doc Rivers has completely ignored my advice to play Sam Cassell when the offense is struggling -- in fact, he's done the opposite and went so far as to bench Sam in Game 6. Look what happened -- the Celtics went nine minutes without a bucket -- that's right, NINE minutes, spanning the last six minutes of the first half and the first three of the second.

The Cavs outscored the Celtics 24-2 in that stretch, which began when Doc rested Ray in the second quarter and continued until Ray hit a layup in the third. The Celtics never recovered. It was a replay of the game in Atlanta when the Celtics went eight minutes without a field goal in the fourth quarter, yet Doc stuck with Rondo until the final minutes of the game when he pulled him for Cassell, too late.

True, this Doc Rivers version of the Muhammad Ali rope-a-dope (Doc's version doesn't work) seems to be a road phenomena. But if it's sink or swim with Rondo again today, Doc Rivers and his point guard may be the next best thing the Cavs have going for them after Lebron.

Lakers almost RULE!!! The Lakers were one better than the Celtics, Cavs, Spurs and Hornets. Kobe and friends avoided game seven and won a game on the road. Lakers fans will now demand that commish David Stern cancel the rest of the playoffs and declare the Lakers champs. Why? Because its OVER!!! LAKERS RULE!!! I hate to admit it, but the Lakers do seem to be separating from the rest of the pack in the West.

To me the reason these series' have been so close (including the Pistons-Magic series, which was much closer than 4-1) is the obvious one: there's not much of a gap separating the top eight teams from one another. Top 10 if one includes a healthy Houston Rockets and the Phoenix Suns. The Jazz were very close to pushing the Lakers to game seven, and only needed to shoot a little bit better than a terrible 33% in Game 6 to get there.

The boo birds were out in Utah, with Andrei Kirelenko (passport-gate) and Carlos "brick shot" Boozer taking the brunt of it. (Boozer reminds me so much of Terry Cummings - including the bricks - that I wonder sometimes if it isn't the 1987-89 Bucks I'm watching during Utah telecasts; Okur plays like a lot like Jack Sikma, and Kirilenko's a dead ringer for Fred Roberts; it's kinda scary).

Still, I'm sticking to my week-ago rant about Bucks fans forgetting the Jazz as a Bucks trading partner. Utah's nearly on par with the Lakers now, and I don't foresee Jerry Sloan messing with a good thing in the offseason. Sloan's not one to panic - and he doesn't have a history of making big trades.

Forget the Jazz as a Bucks trading partner

J.D. Mo — Mon, 12 May 2008 08:55:00 GMT

Can you picture Michael Redd blocking Kobe Bryant's shot? Neither can I.

Andrei Kirilenko did it twice in overtime Sunday in pivotal Game 4 against the Lakers, and the Jazz held home court in the seven-game series, winning one of the best games of the 2008 playoffs. The Lakers and Jazz now go back to LA with Kobe damaged and limping, and the series even-up at 2-2.

Utah gets mentioned quite a bit by Bucks fans as a possible trade partner for the Bucks this offseason. Bucks fans like most of the Jazz roster, for one; but the main impetus is that forward Kirilenko, the Russian AK47, asked to be traded before the season started, citing concerns about basketball life as a "robot" in Utah coach Jerry Sloan's system. Kirilenko's contract matches Redd's - 3 more years, $51 million.

I also suspect that many fans probably thought the Lakers would jettison the Jazz from the playoffs in five games, and that Utah management might panic in the offseason, a la Dallas owner Mark Cuban. It didn't happen, and that earns the Jazz the Bob Boozer Jinx playoff prop they've been fighting for all season.

I'm with those who like this deal. Kirilenko for Redd, straight up. Done deal. AK47 would look great in a Bucks uniform. It wouldn't give the Bucks a payroll break, but GM John Hammond could (and probably will anyway) seek precious salary flexibility by finding trades for Mo Williams and/or Bobby Simmons and by appealing to Dan Gadzuric's better angels to admit that his contract is ridiculous and cut $12 million out of the remaining $20 million (over three years).

Unfortunately, there's a big roadblock to the Redd-Kirilenko trade: It takes two NBA teams to make a player trade, and the odds of Utah being willing partners in this deal are about the same as the odds that the Jazz's Mormon owner will convert to Judaism.

The Jazz have plenty of three-point shooters - Deron Williams, center Mehmet Okur and one of the best, Kyle Korver. Kirilenko, Matt Harpring and Ronnie Brewer are decent shooters too, but play closer to the basket, as does Carlos Boozer (no relation to Bob Boozer). With the exception of Korver, they are all hardnosed defenders, with the spidery-long arms of 6'9" Kirilenko coming in handy, especially when Kobe is playing on one leg.

The challenge in the West over the next few years is how to contend with Kobe, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and the Lakers. The Jazz are contending with the Lakers now, and Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko and Korver are just entering their primes. Harpring is the only Jazz player over 30 getting PT (he's 31). The younger guys, Williams, Brewer and forward Paul Millsap will only get better, and Deron's already All-NBA. Brewer, the starting shooting guard, is only 22.

I don't foresee the Jazz breaking up this team, unless it's to dump an unhappy Kirilenko to create salary cap room to pay the younger players. Point guard Williams, the #3 pick in the Bogut draft, is on the same contract schedule as the Bucks center, and gets very expensive in 2009-10 (figure a minimum 20 percent of Utah's salary cap). No way the Jazz make a trade that gives them no more cap flexibility than they have now, much less trade an active, athletic defender like Kirilenko for Michael Redd, who no one has ever accused of being any of those things.

In fact, I can't see the Jazz having any interest in any Bucks players (Mo started his career in Utah) unless it's Dan Gadzuric. Every team in the NBA could use a marauding 7-foot backup center/luxury tax burden who can run, right?

GM Hammond's got a tough job.