After a one week hiatus, Against the Spread is back. We're slowly working our way back to respectability. After a rough beginning of the season, we'll can get back to .500 in our overall picks with a winning week. The three star picks have always been solid, and I don't expect that to change this week. I'm a little scared that three out of my four picks are playing on the road this week, but I press on...
Three star pick - Bet one Schrute buck - Houston +1 at Tulsa
If Houston can beat both Texas Tech and Mississippi State, then it should be able to beat Tulsa. Sure, the game might be on the road, but Tulsa doesn't the offensive firepower to hang in with Houston. Case Keenum is probably going to get his 400 yards no matter where they're playing, and the Hurricanes just won't be able to keep up. Even in their lone Conference USA loss, Houston still scored 41 points on UTEP. Tulsa's last win came more than a month ago. And it will be at least one more week until they get another one.
Two star pick - Bet one Stanley nickel - Minnesota -6 1/2 vs. Illinois
Illinois stunned favored Michigan last weekend, but the Illini were playing at home. They don't figure to have as much luck against the Golden Gophers on the road. After beating Michigan State, Minnesota has to feel pretty good about themselves. After Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin, Minnesota is leading the second tier of Big Ten teams and, with a little luck, could still find itself in a New Year's Day bowl game. Illinois is 81-109 against the spread in all games since 1992 and 50-83 ATS on turf over the same span. Illinois might have been able to pull off an upset last weekend, but it would be a major shock for them to pull one off two weeks in a row.
One star pick - Bet one Pam penny? - Oregon State +7 at Cal
Cal is about as much of a Jekyll and Hyde team as you can find. One moment they're punishing defenses with Jahvid Best and the next moment, they're losing to teams they're supposed to beat. They face an overachieving Oregon State teams led by overachieving coach Mike Reilly. The Beavers always seem to finish better than expected, and they don't need to win this weekend. They just need to cover the seven point spread. In any case, Oregon State is 13-3 ATS coming off a conference game the past three seasons and 12-3 ATS off a conference win in the same time frame.
Extra pick - Nevada -14 at San Jose State
Nevada may not be able to beat the Notre Dames of the world, but they
are more than capable of beating up on members of their own conference
with the exception of Boise State.They've put up over 60 points twice
including against 7-2 Idaho. Even though they're on the road, they
should be able to beat up on San Jose State on Sunday.
Record on the year:
Three star picks 5-3
All starred picks 10-14
Extra picks 4-3-1
Overall 14-17-1