Every week we'll take a look into the world of college football handicapping. Here's this week's picks:
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Three star selection (bet your first born child) -- Minnesota -5 1/2 vs. Northwestern -- Minnesota leads the nation in turnover margin. And seeing as Northwestern is without two of their best players at skill positions, Minnesota should add to their turnover margin. Northwestern running back Tyrell Sutton and quarterback C.J. Bacher are two of the nation's more underrated players (seriously) and neither are expected to play on Saturday due to injury. Go with Minnesota and the home field advantage as Adam Weber should hook up with Eric Decker to burn the Wildcat secondary a couple times.
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Two star selection (your home mortgage should suffice) -- Oregon +3 1/2 at Cal -- Here's an interesting stat for you: Oregon is 33-14 against the spread when the line is -3 to +3 since 1992 while Cal is 11-26 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 in the same time span. Cal has a pretty good offense, but its offensive line is hampered by injuries. Oregon is sixth in the nation in sacks. The Oregon defense should be able to take advantage. One more stat, Cal is 0-6 ATS in November games the past two seasons at a time of year when push comes to shove.
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One star selection (any family heirloom will do) -- San Jose State +16 at Idaho -- San Jose State has been good to me this year and we're keep ridin' that train. The are 21-9 ATS the spread the past three seasons including going 11-2 ATS against teams with losing records. And how about this for futility: Idaho is 5-14 ATS the past two years, 8-18 ATS the spread as an underdog the past three years, and 24-41 ATS coming off a conference game since 1992.
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Couch cushion selection (maybe your kid's piggy bank too) -- Utah -7 at UNLV -- Here's to hoping Utah isn't looking ahead to next week's match-up with TCU. We dont' think they will be because they have to go undefeated to have any chance of getting into a BCS game. Plus, Utah usually plays focused football coming off a bye. They've had two weeks to prepare for UNLV at Sam Boyd Stadium. Utah is 23-8 ATS with two or more weeks of rest since 1992.
For the third week in a row, my top two picks went 2-0 and the bottom two went 0-2. Notre Dame and Rice were good picks while South Florida and Northwestern not so much. Perhaps another reason to stop after two. Year to date: Three star picks (5-2). Starred picks (11-9-1). Couch cushion (1-6). Overall (12-15-1).
Our friend Dwight Schrute also has a few of his own picks every week. After sorting through statistics and punching numbers into complicated formulas on his calculator wrist watch, Dwight came up with these locks! We'll keep track of his picks throughout the season. Dwight went over the .500 mark for the first time last week with Penn State and Cal. Dwight sits at 6-4 this season.
Put one Schrute buck on Florida State +1 at Georgia Tech.
And a Stanley nickel on Kansas State +11 1/2 at Kansas.
If you like what you read, make sure to check out my other Sports Bubbler blog, Railbird Central, for full coverage of the Green Bay Packers.