March 2008 - Posts

• An unlikely closer

  Posted Mar 31 2008, 12:13 AM by radio silence

  In extension to the post on Cordero and Dempster, let's celebrate the career of Joe Borowski for a moment:

   Career (1995-present): 405 G, 1 GS, 437.7 IP, 363 K/169 BB, 161/190 leads converted, 128/37 IR/IS

   85% leads converted

  29% IR/IS

  7.46 K/9 IP

  3.47 BB/9 IP

  What can a manageable workload do for a closer? Well, Borowski made it through his career all the way to 2007 before he saw more than 50 leads to convert in an entire season. His previous high was in 2006 in Florida, at 43 leads opportunities.

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  Filed under: bullpen stats, Joe Borowski, Ryan Dempster, Francisco Corder

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• Dempster or Cordero? 2005-2007

  Posted Mar 31 2008, 12:08 AM by radio silence

  The Reds spent a lot of money to bring Francisco Cordero to Cincinnati, from Milwaukee. The Cubs moved three-year closer Ryan Dempster from the bullpen to the rotation. These two seemingly have completely different career paths, as Cordero has never been moved to the rotation, let alone started in the MLB, and Dempster does not have the number of saves to build a resume like a career-reliever such as Cordero.

  So, who would you rather have closing in 2008?

  Dempster: 203 G, 6 GS, 233.7 IP, 211 K/115 BB, 85/100 leads converted, 22/6 IR/IS

  85% leads converted

  27% IR/IS

  8.13 K/9 IP

  4.43 BB/9 IP

  Cordero: 212 G, 207.3 IP, 249 K/80 BB, 119/145 leads converted, 77/26 IR/IS

  82% leads converted

  34% IR/IS

  10.81 K/9 IP

  3.47 BB/9 IP

  I think every baseball fan would pick Cordero if asked who they wanted to close their 2008 baseball team. My question is, why? Is it the workload that he can handle? The strike outs? The  relatively low number of walks in the past three seasons?

  Despite the fact that he takes a large workload, Cordero is not the most reliable of closers; even including some of his best career work in Milwaukee, Cordero's 2005-2007 managed only an 82% leads converted percentage, and he allowed 34% of inherited runners to score.

  The point might not be that fans should like Dempster better than Cordero; rather, that with a manageable workload, any pitcher can be a closer -- even one that doesn't strike out a ton of batters and walks a considerable number.

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• Two more groundball outs...

  Posted Mar 30 2008, 10:05 PM by radio silence

  Ben Sheets recorded 19 ground outs and 17 air outs in his 2008 Spring Training Campaign, a percentage of 52.8% ground balls.

  Should he record outs at this percentage for the full season, he will record his best ground ball outs percentage since 2002.

  What does this mean for the rest of his game?

  -During seasons in which Sheets recorded a larger percentage of ground outs than air outs, his K/BB ratio was lower:

  2001-2002: 56.7% GO, 2.24 K/BB

  2003-2004: 49.5% GO, 5.61 K/BB

  2005-2007: 42.7%, 4.97 K/BB

  Of course, 2001-2002 were his first two seasons, and 2005-2007 were injury-plagued, so all we really know about Sheets is that he recorded a higher number of air outs in 2003-2004, and struck out a lot of batters per walk (and walked almost next to nobody).

  Oddly enough, in his career, a larger percentage of ground balls has not equalled fewer home runs allowed:

  2001-2002: 1.08 HR/9 IP

  2003-2004: 1.06 HR/9 IP

  2005-2007: 1.23 HR/9 IP

  So, what happens in 2008 if Sheets records a higher percentage of ground outs than air outs?

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• A more hug-able Zambrano?

  Posted Mar 30 2008, 09:42 PM by radio silence

  Carlos Zambrano has seen an increase in his number of baserunners allowed, compared with his fine 2003-2005 campaigns: 

  2003: 1.318, 2004: 1.216, 2005: 1.146, 2006: 1.294 , 2007: 1.331

   

   

  In his preview two seasons, his walk ratio has jumped...

   

  2003: 3.95 BB/9 IP, 2004: 3.48 BB/9 IP, 2005: 3.47 BB/9 IP, 2006: 4.84 BB/9 IP, 2007: 4.20 BB/9 IP

   

   ..although he remained comparatively unhittable.Until last year:

  2003: 7.91 H/9 IP, 2004: 7.47 H/9 IP, 2005: 6.85 H/9 IP, 2006: 6.81 H/9 IP , 2007: 7.78 H/9 IP

   

  Should fans be looking for a Zambrano in a better mood, a more hug-able Zambrano, they might hope for career high control numbers...

  215.46 IP, 164 H, 83 BB

  ...but sustaining the trend of a more hit-able and walk-able Zambrano, fans might see a less lovable Zambrano!2

  15.46 IP, 189 H, 116 BB

  Would you hug Zambrano if he allowed 58 more baserunners over 215 IP?

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

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• Ryan Dempster

  Posted Mar 25 2008, 09:52 PM by radio silence

  Ryan Dempster might be ready to take on a rotation role, however, if his BB/9 IP numbers are considered:

   

  2004: 5.65 BB/9 IP

  2005: 4.79 BB/9 IP

  2006: 4.32 BB/9 IP

  2007: 4.05 BB/9 IP

   

  This compares well to most of his seasons as a starter:

   

  1998: 6.25 BB/9 IP

  1999: 5.69 BB/9 IP

  2000: 3.86 BB/9 IP

  2001: 4.77 BB/9 IP

  2002: 4.00 BB/9 IP

  2003: 5.45 BB/9 IP

   

  If Dempster can maintain his 2007 season control level, including hits allowed,  he will allow a lower percentage of baserunners than any other season in his career.

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