After Prince's huge power breakout season in 2007, during which he belted 87 extra base hits, heavy on the HR side (50 HR vs. 35 2B), a lot of talk was devoted to Prince's coming salary arbitration after 2008, his comparison with Ryan Howard, and his power potential. I can recall seeing off-the-wall HR predictions anywhere from matching 2007's 50 HR to upwards of 55-60 HR for 2008.
Part of me has always wondered, however, if Prince's HR feat in 2007 was the most important aspect of his game. Similarly, I have wondered if Prince's virtue as a hitter is truly as a HR hitter.
What if Prince's virtue is his increased patience, which coupled with an approach at the plate that values taking what is given results in an extremely versatile hitter that will equally draw his walks, punch his opposite field singles and doubles (and HR), and also pull his fair share of HR. And strike out.
My first inkling that Prince might not be a HR hitter comes from the % increase in HR/H from 2006 to 2007, compared with the increase with his XBH...
HR% (HR/H)
2005: 11.8%
2006: 18.2%
2007: 30.3%
XBH% (XBH/H)
2005: 35.3%
2006: 41.6%
2007: 52.7%
Prince's HR% jump is similar to his XBH% jump (12.1% HR jump vs. 11.1% XBH jump), but it is slightly larger. I am not sure what this indicates, but it suggests to me that although his XBH total was highly tied to his HR total in 2007, he remained a potent XBH hitter anyhow. In 2007, for instance, he posted a much more balanced total of 35 2B and 28 HR.
What is striking about Prince's development is that as his power increased, so did his patience; Prince has increased his BB% and decreased his K% in each of his seasons:
BB% (BB/PA)
2005: 3.2%
2006: 9.1%
2007: 13.2%
K% (K/PA)
2005: 27.4%
2006: 19.3%
2007: 17.8%
I do not think that we can ignore the correlation between walks, striking out less, and hitting for more power. I do not think the increase in HR occurred because of a simple increase in the frequency of hits:
H% (H/PA)
2005: 27.4%
2006: 23.8%
2007: 24.2%
What's bizarre about Prince's HR increase being based around the number of K and BB improving in both directions is that thus far, in 2008, Prince has drawn a larger % of BB and K'd at a lower % than previous seasons:
2008 K%: 15%
2008 BB%: 11.7%
Prince is striking out at a lower rate than 2007 thus far, and drawing walks a little less frequently. He is clearly struggling in the hits department (18.3%), and his XBH total is low (27.3%), thus explaining some of the power outage.
However, part of me wonders if the HR increase could simply be a bit incidental to the increase in K and BB efficiency in 2007, and that really, what was valuable about his approach was that he was drawing walks and striking out less, rather than hitting HR. In that department in 2008, Prince is hanging in there with hsi previosu averages; in terms of striking out, he has even improved.
A more drastic example is looking at the number of PA/HR throughout his career:
2005: 31 PA/HR2006: 23.14 PA/HR2007: 13.62 PA/HR
Now, if we take the walk and strike out ratios to be important, we can build one positive apsect of Prince's 2008 season. Here is another: if home runs are incidental to his highly patient approach at the plate, and his HR increase in 2007 was a huge jump and probably unsustainable, then Prince is not off to as tough of a start as he deserves mention for.
According to his 2005 PA/HR, he should not even have 2 HR yet, in 60 PA.
According to his 2006 PA/HR, he should be over 2 HR, but not yet to 3 HR, in 60 PA.
According to his 2007 PA/HR, things become more troublesome; here he is already 4 HR off pace and should not be far from hitting HR #5 shortly after 60 PA.
So, it is my contention that...
(a) There are two crucial aspects to Prince's game that do not involve HR hitting: walking more and striking out less. HR totals may come, but the point is not to hit HR.
(b) Prince is not as far off from his norms as one might think. I believe that the power numbers will fill in as he simply brings his % of hits up per plate appearance.
The extra base hits will come, as will the HR, but right now Prince should hang his hat on the fact that he is walking at a fine pace thus far (80 BB in 681 PA), and he is not striking out at a bad pace either (102 K in 681 PA). If Prince can build up his hits and continue to work these patient numbers, he could have a breakthrough season in a different way; depending upon the context of hitters batting around him, he will indeed be able to take his walks, and if he can limit strikes, and put the ball in play, those XBH will come.
We might not see the big 55 HR season we'd like to from Prince, but I also find it intriguing to think that Prince is not supposed to be a 55 HR season. If he can work up, to his peak, and become a type of 110 K/110 BB guy in 700 PA, and collect a hit in around 24% of his PA, he could easily be a 76-80 XBH guy, which translates nicely into something like 45 2B and 31 HR, or at the higher HR level, perhaps something like 42 2B and 38 HR...
Who wouldn't take a...
700 PA, 576 AB, 168 H, 42 2B, 1 3B, 38 HR, 110 K/110 BB, 14 HBP; .292/.417/.566
,,,season from Prince?
It looks different than .288/.395/.618, but it could be the direction Prince is headed in if he keeps drawing the walks frequently, striking out less, and not centering his approach around the HR.