After watching a series of inefficient starts this week, and following a team whose starters have had a problem nibbling all season, I thought that I would take a survey of how our pitchers are performing in terms of efficiency.

In order to measure efficiency, I am basically taking an approximate measure of 15 NP per IP as a mark of efficiency, for the sake of a standard measure. Obviously we might find 15 to be a problematic number in some cases (i.e., it assumes pitchers will give up about one baserunner per IP, and may or may not effectively account for foul balls, HBP, and other events that drive pitch counts up). However, as a basic measure, I think it will suffice.

So, first I have collected simple IP, NP, PA, NP/IP and NP/PA for our staff. I have arranged the pitchers in terms of most efficient to least efficient:

Sheets (28 IP): 384 NP, 101 PA, 13.71 NP/IP; 3.80 NP/PA

Suppan (31 IP): 463 NP, 125 PA, 14.94 NP/IP; 3.70 NP/PA

Gallardo (14 IP): 229 NP, 56 PA, 16.36 NP/IP; 4.09 NP/PA

Bush (22.7 IP): 402 NP; 104 PA, 17.74 NP/IP; 3.87 NP/PA

Parra (18.3 IP): 354 NP, 88 PA, 19.31 NP/IP; 4.03 NP/PA

Villanueva (23 IP): 406 NP, 104 PA, 17.65 NP/IP; 3.90 NP/PA

Total (137 IP): 2238 NP, 578 PA, 16.34 NP/IP; 3.87 NP/PA

Not surprisingly, Sheets is having the most efficient season of our starters, which is probably a result of his ability to command his pitchers better than anyone on our staff. His NP/PA is below the team average level, and he is throwing about 2.5 fewer pitches per IP than the staff average -- which probably explains his comparatively high IP total after 4 starts.

Suppan is not far behind Sheets -- he is more efficient per PA than Sheets (probably because he strikes out fewer batters and depends upon his defense more), but he has allowed more baserunners per IP, although his NP/IP remains below staff average.

Bush is an interesting case: he is throwing more pitches per IP than the staff average, even though he is throwing an average number of pitches per PA. This should be consistent with the amount of baserunners that Bush is allowing. The same could be said about Villanueva, although to a somewhat lesser extent.

Gallardo is throwing more pitches per PA than anyone on the staff, but his ability to record outs right now accounts for his lower NP/IP total. Parra is not faring as well as Gallardo, as he is not only throwing a lot of pitches per PA, but he's also throwing a lot of pitches per IP. This accounts for his baserunners total, and his control problems that he is struggling with.

So, how do these numbers translate?

If we take our hypothetical standard of 15 NP/IP, we can create a "virtual IP" category, which basically suggests that for a particular number of pitches, there should be a corresponding IP total. I.e., if a pitcher has 90 NP, the hypothetical standard suggests 6 "virtual IP." If he is at 90 NP with only 5.3 IP recorded, he is inefficient. If he is at 90 NP with 6.3 IP recorded, he is efficient, and better than the standard.

This standard should be able to help us figure out just how many IP our staff should have...

Sheets (28 IP): 25.6 virtual IP (+2.4 IP)

Suppan (31 IP): 30.9 virtual IP (+0.1 IP)

Gallardo (14 IP): 15.3 virtual IP (-1.3 IP)

Bush (22.7 IP): 26.8 virtual IP (-4.1 IP)

Villanueva (23 IP): 27.1 virtual IP (-4.1 IP)

Parra (18.3 IP): 23.6 virtual IP (-5.3 IP)

Total (137 IP): 149.2 virtual IP (-12.2 IP)

Not surprisingly, given their efficiency, both Sheets and Suppan have maximized their IP totals, and have combined to pitch 2.5 more IP than their NP total indicates. This is a very good thing; it means that they can go deeper into ballgames without putting as many pitches on their arms.

Gallardo has been inefficient thus far; his virtual IP total does not look bad because he only has 2 starts, but through those 2 starts he has pitched approximately 4 more outs than necessary.

Bush, Parra, and Villanueva have had the worst efficiency and the worst luck with their IP totals. The number of pitches they have thrown suggest that each of them have pitched at least 12 more outs than necessary. Parra's number is actually closer to 16 extra outs, as he is already a full 5.3 IP behind his NP total after 4 starts.

What does this mean for the season?

Projected over 30 GS...

Sheets: 30 GS, 210.00 IP; 2880 NP, 757.50 PA

Suppan: 30 GS, 186.00 IP, 2778 NP, 750 PA

Gallardo: 30 GS, 210.00 IP, 3435 NP, 840 PA

Villanueva: 30 GS, 172.50 IP; 3045 NP, 780 PA

Bush: 30 GS, 170.25 IP; 3015 NP, 780 PA,

Parra: 30 GS, 137.25 IP; 2655 NP, 660 PA

 And their projected virtual IP...

Sheets: 30 GS, 210.00 IP; 192.00 virtual IP (+18.0 IP)

Suppan: 30 GS, 186.00 IP; 185.20 virtual IP (+0.80 IP)

Gallardo: 30 GS, 210.00 IP, 229.00 virtual IP (-19.0 IP)

Villanueva: 30 GS, 172.50 IP; 203.00 virtual IP (-30.5 IP)

Bush: 30 GS, 170.25 IP; 201.00 virtual IP (-30.75 IP)

Parra: 30 GS, 137.25 IP, 177.00 virtual IP (-39.75 IP)