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May 2008 - Posts
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Here is some research I've worked on in the last week about Sheets and his contract extension....the stats used for Sheets are approx.one week old.
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One of the big questions about extending Ben Sheets' contract is whether or not the Brewers can afford the contract that Sheets is likely to receive...
Well, let's take a look at some of the deals given to the most comparable pitchers in the past few years -- these are deals I'm counting as after arby-buyout type deals, like the 4/$36 deal Sheets signed in 2005. There are a surprising number of very comparable pitchers, guys like Aaron Harang and Josh Beckett, that are on deals like this right now. I didn't include them because, frankly, they're unrealistic to compare to a pitcher of Sheets' service time facing FA for the first time.
So, I found ten deals on Cot's Baseball Contracts I'd like to analyze. Those contracts are for Johan Santana, Barry Zito, A.J. Burnett, Tim Hudson, Roy Oswalt, Carlos Zambrano, Chris Carpenter, Mark Buehrle, Jason Schmidt, and Jake Peavy.
Here I've included the deal they signed, the month and year they signed it, and their career stats up to their point (if a deal was signed before July, I did not include that current year's starts. If a deal was signed after July, I included the full stats from that year, simply for convenience of calculation). I have also included top/best ERA, low/worst ERA, and median ERA.
Top, Low, and Median ERA only calculated for seasons with 17 or more starts
Ben Sheets: 73-74, 190 GS, 13 CG, 1 SHO, 1229.7 IP, 1221 H, 576 R, 1048 K/266 BB;
Top ERA: 2.70 Low ERA: 4.76 Median ERA: 3.82
Johan Santana: signed extension 2/2/08 (6/$137.5): 93-44, 251 G, 175 GS, 6 CG, 3 SHO, 1308 IP, 1068 H, 500 R, 1381 K/364 BB
Top ERA: 2.61 Low ERA: 3.33 Median ERA: 2.87
Jake Peavy: signed extension 12/12/07 (3/$52, to begin in 2010): 76-51, 172 GS, 5 CG, 3 SHO, 1087.3 IP, 943 H, 427 R, 1090 K/348 BB;
Top ERA: 2.27 Low ERA: 4.52 Median ERA: 3.49
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5): 82-55, 201 G, 180 GS, 7 CG, 2 SHO, 1193.3 IP, 986 H, 506 R, 1042 K/548 BB;
Top ERA: 2.75 Low ERA: 3.95 Median ERA: 3.26
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56): 107-75, 259 G, 234 GS, 22 CG, 7 SHO, 1629 IP, 1681 H, 770 R, 943 K/373 BB;
Top ERA: 3.12 Low ERA: 4.99 Median ERA: 3.63
Roy Oswalt: signed extension 8/06 (5/$73): 98-47, 188 G, 177 GS, 11 CG, 4 SHO, 1201.3 IP, 1153 H, 443 R, 1016 K/263 BB
Top ERA: 2.73 Low ERA: 3.49 Median ERA: 2.97
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126): 102-63, 222 GS, 9 CG, 4 SHO, 1430.3 IP, 1228 H, 620 R, 1096 K/560 BB;
Top ERA: 2.75 Low ERA: 4.48 Median ERA: 3.66
Chris Carpenter: signed extension, 12/06 (5/$63.5): 100-68, 245 G, 228 GS, 25 CG, 12 SHO, 1516 IP, 1551 H, 758 R, 1161 K/463 BB;
Top ERA: 2.83 Low ERA: 6.26 Median ERA: 4.09
Jason Schmidt: signed as free agent, 12/06 (3/$47): 127-90, 313 G, 304 GS, 20 CG, 9 SHO, 1953 IP, 1798 H, 926 R, 1728 K/766 BB
Top ERA: 2.34 Low ERA: 4.60 Median ERA: 3.83
A.J. Burnett: signed as free agent, 12/05 (5/$55): 49-50, 134 G, 131 GS, 14 CG, 8 SHO, 853.7 IP, 719 H, 395 R, 753 K/377 BB;
Top ERA: 3.30 Low ERA: 4.05 Median ERA: 3.53
Tim Hudson: signed extension, 3/05 (4/$47): 92-39, 183 GS, 16 CG, 8 SHO, 1240.7 IP, 1134 H, 509 R, 899 K/382 BB;
Top ERA: 2.70 Low ERA: 4.14 Median ERA: 3.32
Now, that's a lot of data. How should we digest it? For, there are contracts all over the place -- Hudson and Burnett have older contracts that are likely less relevant; also, there are significant differences between the Zambrano and Zito deals because one occurred on the open market, and one was a team extension. The same goes for Johan Santana and Mark Buehrle.
Jake Peavy's contract is the most interesting of the bunch -- he actually signed a contract for the future (I wonder if we can do that for Braun, haha!), which will not take the place of his current deal or the 2009 option. Because his deal binds for the future, and is an extension, I find it to be a very relevant deal to consider for Sheets' situation, for a mid-season contract. It's one further bargaining chip to create a proper value for Sheets.
Sub-division One: Extensions. This group is more relevant if Sheets is renewed during the season:
Extensions: 32/$520.5; ($16.27 million average, $22.9 million high; $14.6 median)
Johan Santana: signed extension 2/2/08 (6/$137.5):
Top ERA: 2.61 Low ERA: 3.33 Median ERA: 2.87 (22.9)
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5):
Top ERA: 2.75 Low ERA: 3.95 Median ERA: 3.26 (18.3)
Jake Peavy: signed extension 12/12/07 (3/$52, to begin in 2010):
Top ERA: 2.27 Low ERA: 4.52 Median ERA: 3.49 (17.33)
Roy Oswalt: signed extension 8/06 (5/$73):
Top ERA: 2.73 Low ERA: 3.49 Median ERA: 2.97 (14.6)
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56):
Top ERA: 3.12 Low ERA: 4.99 Median ERA: 3.63 (14)
Chris Carpenter: signed extension, 12/06 (5/$63.5):
Top ERA: 2.83 Low ERA: 6.26 Median ERA: 4.09 (12.7)
Tim Hudson: signed extension, 3/05 (4/$47):
Top ERA: 2.70 Low ERA: 4.14 Median ERA: 3.32 (11.75)
Sub-division Two: Free Agency. This is very relevant for after the season:
Free Agents: 15/$228; ($15.2 million average, $18 million high; $15.67 median)
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126):
Top ERA: 2.75 Low ERA: 4.48 Median ERA: 3.66 (18)
Jason Schmidt: signed as free agent, 12/06 (3/$47):
Top ERA: 2.34 Low ERA: 4.60 Median ERA: 3.83 (15.67)
A.J. Burnett: signed as free agent, 12/05 (5/$55):
Top ERA: 3.30 Low ERA: 4.05 Median ERA: 3.53 (11)
So, now we have a range of yearly figures, from $14.6 million to $22.9 million for extensions, and $15.2 million to $18 million for free agency. Anything below $15 is low, and anything over $20 seems high for Sheets' case (he's good, but he's not Johan Santana).
We can get this figure even more specific for Sheets based on performance comparisons, from various points of view:
Sub-Division Three: Median ERA. These are the very middle ERA figures from each player's career.
By Median ERA:
Johan Santana: signed extension 2/2/08 (6/$137.5): Median ERA: 2.87
Roy Oswalt: signed extension 8/06 (5/$73): Median ERA: 2.97
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5): Median ERA: 3.26
Tim Hudson: signed extension, 3/05 (4/$47): Median ERA: 3.32
Jake Peavy: signed extension 12/12/07 (3/$52, to begin in 2010): Median ERA: 3.49
A.J. Burnett: signed as free agent, 12/05 (5/$55): Median ERA: 3.53
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56): Median ERA: 3.63
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126): Median ERA: 3.66
Ben Sheets: Median ERA: 3.82
Jason Schmidt: signed as free agent, 12/06 (3/$47): Median ERA: 3.83
Chris Carpenter: signed extension, 12/06 (5/$63.5): Median ERA: 4.09
If we look at his median performance, Sheets is towards the lower end of the pack of recent contracts. Obviously even a median of 3.82 is still a very good ERA, but it separates Sheets from Santana, Oswalt, Hudson, Zambrano, and Peavy. The separation from Santana is crucial here. Being closer to Peavy is a very good thing -- better than being closer to Zambrano for good reasons (Peavy signed a deal for fewer years, and a much more manageable contract than Zambrano).
Sub-Division Four: Top ERA. This is each pitcher's best ERA:
By Top ERA:
Jake Peavy: signed extension 12/12/07 (3/$52, to begin in 2010): Top ERA: 2.27
Jason Schmidt: signed as free agent, 12/06 (3/$47): Top ERA: 2.34
Johan Santana: signed extension 2/2/08 (6/$137.5): Top ERA: 2.61
Ben Sheets: Top ERA: 2.70
Tim Hudson: signed extension, 3/05 (4/$47): Top ERA: 2.70
Roy Oswalt: signed extension 8/06 (5/$73): Top ERA: 2.73
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126): Top ERA: 2.75
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5): Top ERA: 2.75
Chris Carpenter: signed extension, 12/06 (5/$63.5): Top ERA: 2.83
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56): Top ERA: 3.12
A.J. Burnett: signed as free agent, 12/05 (5/$55): Top ERA: 3.30
Now we have a different picture of Sheets. His median is a bit lower, but he obviously has an upside as good as just about any of these guys. This seems to give Sheets a type of range for his contract that is different than a guy like Zambrano, Peavy, or Santana, who have top ERAs much closer to their median ERA. Sheets simply has a different career arc than some of these guys, which is perfectly fine, and it might actually be helpful for the Brewers' chances of landing Sheets. That's not saying Sheets is a bad pitcher or is not as worthy of a large contract; it just means that Sheets' large contract ought to be structured differently and worth something a little bit different.
Sub-Division Five: Career average. This uses the index of their quality start average ((IP/GS)/(runs average)) to rank the players. Career Average
Roy Oswalt (1.92): 3.32 runs average, 6.39 IP/G
Tim Hudson (1.84): 3.69 runs average, 6.78 IP/GS
Jake Peavy (1.79): 3.53 runs average, 6.32 IP/GS
Johan Santana (1.51): 3.44 runs average, 5.21 IP/G*
Barry Zito (1.65): 3.90 runs average, 6.44 IP/GS
Carlos Zambrano (1.55): 3.82 runs average, 5.94 IP/G
A.J. Burnett (1.53): 4.16 runs average, 6.37 IP/G
Ben Sheets (1.53): 4.22 runs average, 6.47 IP/GS
Mark Buehrle (1.48): 4.25 runs average, 6.29 IP/G
Jason Schmidt (1.46): 4.27 runs average, 6.24 IP/G
Chris Carpenter (1.38): 4.50 runs average, 6.19 IP/G
* moved up due to median ERA and top ERA, and note that extensive use as a reliever distorts his career stats more than anyone else, and to a large degree.
Once again, we find Sheets with a very good performance, but in the middle of the pack -- here it's clear that he's separated from Oswalt, Hudson, Peavy, and Santana. This puts him in the dubious company of Barry $ito and Carlos Zambrano, but it also puts him in the favorable company of A.J. Burnett (even though his contract is older) and Mark Buehrle.
So, here are Sheets' closest performance ranges for developing a contract value:
Contract Ranges: Sheets' closest comparisons by the categories above. For different value comparisons, I have thrown out older contracts that might be somewhat irrelevant where necessary: By Career Average
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5):
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56):
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126):
A.J. Burnett: signed as free agent, 12/05 (5/$55):
Total: 21/$328.5 Average: 1/$15.64
w/o Burnett: 16/$273.5 (1/$17.09)
By Median ERA
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56):
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126):
Jason Schmidt: signed as free agent, 12/06 (3/$47):
Chris Carpenter: signed extension, 12/06 (5/$63.5):
Total: 19/292.5 Average: 1/15.39
w/o Schmidt and Carpenter: 11/182 ($16.54) By Top ERA
Johan Santana: signed extension 2/2/08 (6/$137.5): Top ERA: 2.61
Tim Hudson: signed extension, 3/05 (4/$47): Top ERA: 2.70
Roy Oswalt: signed extension 8/06 (5/$73): Top ERA: 2.73
Barry Zito: signed as free agent, 12/06 (7/$126): Top ERA: 2.75
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5): Top ERA: 2.75
Total: 27/475 Average: 1/$17.59
w/o Hudson: 23/428 ($18.61)
So, that leaves us with this aggregate contract range...
Aggregate:
Total: 21/$328.5 Average: 1/$15.64
w/o Burnett: 16/$273.5 (1/$17.09)
Total: 19/292.5 Average: 1/15.39
w/o Schmidt and Carpenter: 11/182 ($16.54)
Total: 27/475 Average: 1/$17.59
w/o Hudson: 23/428 ($18.61)
117/$1979.5 (1/$16.92)
....and, more importantly, the last four contracts:
Last four contracts:
Johan Santana: signed extension 2/2/08 (6/$137.5)
Jake Peavy: signed extension 12/12/07 (3/$52, to begin in 2010)
Carlos Zambrano: signed extension 8/17/07 (5/$91.5)
Mark Buehrle: signed extension 7/8/07 (4/$56)
So, now we have a very good picture of Sheets' value range. I have not included more specific calculations of service time, which may or may not be relevant, and I obviously have not included things like a personal preference to go to a proven contender, a big market, or a hot city, because I obviously do not know Sheets' personal preferences.
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Given the above information, I have three deals ready for Sheets...
1. "The Sucker Deal." I sell Sheets on the short term competition window for this team, and I offer him a brief, 2/$40 contract. Sheets takes the contract because it puts him back on the market before he's 33, and gives him the shot for another big contract. The Brewers benefit from the terms of the deal because of the lack of long-term risk. Everybody wins.
2. "The Peavy Deal." Straight up. I offer 3/$52 million. Realistically, it benefits Sheets because it adds another year of security at a very good price, and frankly, it prices him in a Top ERA, Career Average, and Median ERA group that is very elite. Jake Peavy was not on one of his close comparisons in any of those categories, and if I'm negotiating with Sheets I tell him up front that I want to pay him like one of the best pitchers in the game because he's that valuable to the Milwaukee Brewers and their plans for contention. I tell him that I know that his top value is close to Peavy, and that he could have a very good chance to produce great numbers over a 3-year span, and hey, he'll still have the chance to get that deal before he turns 34. Everybody wins.
3. "The Big Deal." This is the money deal, the one with more long term Brewers' risk. I offer Sheets 4/$75 million. This contract is perfect value, because it is exactly between the Santana, Buehrle, Peavy, and Zambrano deals. Who can argue with that? It also gives Sheets very good security, but the length of years is not so long that the Brewers will be hung by the contract. Given the scarcity of pitchers near Sheets' caliber in the MLB, he deserves a contract that pays him exactly like the big guns that have signed contracts before him. For a career standpoint, this is a valuable deal for Sheets to sign because it does slot him above a guy like Buehrle, and places him behind Santana, and it actually pays him better than Peavy as well.
Sheets absolutely wins with this deal, and the Brewers gain his services for a long enough period of time to play with the current core for another year, and also with the full offensive arsenal that includes Gamel and LaPorta. It also opens the possibility of seeing Sheets as rotation mates with Yovani Gallardo for four years, and maybe even Jeremy Jeffress for a year (maybe more, probably not). If Parra can stay healthy, it keeps considerable power in our rotation for years to come, and limits the number of softer, sinkerballer pitchers we need to use.
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So I completely forgot that there was no World Series in 1994. How depressing what that! That steroids era really was one big amnesia pill.
I felt great about baseball until tonight, when I revisited the 1994 Montreal Expos, who might have been the most unfortunate team in recent history -- maybe even beyond recent history. Let's forget about what a strong playoff showing and likely NL title would have done for that struggling organization in the friendly land of French-Canadians. Let's think about how much fun it would have been to watch one of the truly unique teams of an era, one of the few teams to truly build a very good team on very good young talent that was budding into MLB stars and average MLB-ers alike on that 1994 team.
1994 Montreal Expos
Let’s have some fun here – since there was no 1994 World Series, I am going to look at one of the most heartbreaking teams in MLB history, the ’94 Expos. The Expos had a lot going right for them when the strike began in 1994, and the difference between their team and just about every other World Series Champion in the decade that followed was that their team was stacked full of young players – their oldest regular was a 31-year old Jeff Fassero (compare with the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, who received a notable contribution by only one player under 30 – Byung-Hyun Kim).
First, the really good stuff: contributions from young players…
Moises Alou, OF: .339/.397/.592 (.303/.369/.516 career). Alou’s first really big splash in the MLB came at age 27, and his power numbers from this season would not be matched until 1997 with Florida and surpassed with Houston in 1998. This is the first great season by one of the most overshadowed sluggers in the past 15 years.
Larry Walker, OF: .322/.394/.587 (.313/.400/.565 career). Another very good player for his career, Walker had his first great season in 1994, like Alou. Although he did not display great home run power in ’94, his bat exploded for 44 doubles, a career high. His AVG, OBP, and SLG were the best for his career to that point, and would not be matched until his monster .366/.452/.720 season for Colorado in 1997.
Wil Cordero, SS: .294/.363/.489 (.273/.330/.428 career). A 22-year old Cordero would post his best all-around career season in 1994, hitting 15 HR and 30 2B – very impressive career totals given the strike-shortened season. He also posted his career high SB (16/19). No other full season would match his 1994 production.
Pedro Martinez, SP: 3.61 runs average, 6.03 IP/G, 1.106 WHIP. (3.10 runs average, 5.98 IP/G, 1.031 WHIP). Okay, this is me cheating again. Pedro is easily the MLB’s best starter for the past 15 years. However, 1994 marked his first career contribution as a starting pitcher, and he was well-above average from the very beginning as a 22-year old. Notice that his 1994 campaign would not be fully matched until 1997’s monster season. One last thing – let’s celebrate a 22-year old’s excellent K/BB of 142/45.
Of course, the Expos also had their share of average to below-average contributions:
Darin Fletcher, C: .260/.314/.435 vs. .269/.318/.423
Cliff Floyd, 1B: .281/.332/.398 vs. .279/.359/.484
Mike Lansing, 2B: .266/.328/.368 vs. .271/.324/.401
Sean Berry, 3B: .278/.347/.453 vs. .272/.334/.445
Marquis Grissom, CF: .288/.344/.427 vs. .272/.318/.415
Kirk Rueter, SP: 5.17 ERA, 1.397 WHIP vs. 4.27 ERA, 1.394 WHIP
And, of course, how about the pitching? In addition to the ace-in-training, Pedro:
Ken Hill, SP: 3.32 ERA, 1.222 WHIP vs. 4.06 ERA, 1.414 WHIP. Best career season.
Jeff Fassero, SP: 2.99 ERA, 1.147 WHIP vs. 4.11 ERA, 1.380 WHIP. Never surpassed.
John Wetteland, RP: 2.83 ERA,1.052 WHIP vs. 2.93 ERA, 1.135 WHIP. One of many great seasons.
Of course, let’s not forget Mel Rojas or Tim Scott in the pen next to Wetteland.
This team is clearly more exciting than any of the other NL Champions from 1995, 1997, 2001, 2003, and 2006. They have every angle covered. Their average-to-below-average are much closer to the "average" side of things, rather than the blatently below-average side. They have solid production at SS, and passable production at 2B and 3B. CF and C leave something to be desired, but we can say that about just about every one of these teams -- especially Juan Pierre, Devon White, and Steve Finley.
Now, the really fun parts -- Moises Alou and Larry Walker provide corner OF production that not many can match, and both covered all aspects of hitting in 1994: they hit for average, they got on base at a very good clip, and they drove the ball for a very good amount of power.
The starting pitching is a textbook example of Championship pitching -- not the rare Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux combination, but the more replicable league average mid-rotation that produces their best seasons, and a young ace in training (hindsight leads me to view 1994 Pedro Martinez in even more favorable light. Who knew in 1994 at Stade Olympique that they were watching the best pitching of the next 15 years starting games for their Expos?)
So, I put this team up against any of the World Series Champions that represented the NL after 1994.
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All right, back to the fun stuff....Today I looked at NL teams.
1. 1997 and 2003 Florida Marlins
These teams probably couldn't be a greater study in contrasts. One (1997) was a team of aging veterans that supplied mostly average-to-below-average seasons for their careers. The other (2003) was a team of incredible overachievers in their starting rotation and especially in the field. Overachieving youth versus underachieving veterans: any wonder they're filling the seats in Miami?
2003 Florida Marlins
Luis Castillo, 2B: .314/.381/.397 (.293/.368/.357 career). His second best overall season, although he posted his best SLG, due to his best power season.
Mike Lowell, 3B: .275/.350/.530 (.280/.344/.469 career). Arguably one of his best seasons – third best OBP, best SLG, even with a lower batting average. Highest HR total in his career.
Alex Gonzalez, SS: .256/.313/.443 (.248/.295/.399 career). His best full season in his career, including his best full season OBP and SLG.
Juan Pierre, CF: .305/.361/.373 (.301/.348/.372 career). His second best season, which includes his highest SB total and highest BB total for his career. Also his second-best hits total (tied with his 2006 hits total).
Dontrelle Willis, SP: 3.42 runs average, 5.95 IP/GS, 1.282 WHIP (4.21 runs average, 6.23 IP/G, 1.364 WHIP career). The D-Train made his big splash in 2003, and was a key rookie contirbutor to the Marlins’ effort. The D-Train has had trouble replicating this season.
Mark Redman, SP: 3.87 runs average, 6.58 IP/GS, 1.222 WHIP (5.15 runs average, 5.67 IP/G, 1.427 WHIP career). Easily his best season in a journeyman’s career – the Marlins were the third team of the eight teams he played with from 2001-2007.
What more can you ask for? A young rookie, actually two (including Josh Beckett, but I felt I said enough about him in the last installment) come onto the scene and pitch two of their best seasons, opening the doors to unrequited promise (especially in Willis' case). Look at Mark Redman! Goodness, that season in 2003 should guarantee the left-hander a job through approximately 2020, if he wants it. Again, what more could you ask for from your low rotation?
Ignoring a bullpen full of your average chumps and nobodies, I thoroughly enjoyed watching the 2003 Marlins offense break the hearts of my obnoxious floormates that October (they were watching Game 6 in the dark. Figures.) What more can you ask for that overachievers at 2B, SS, and CF, with world class speed to boot? That's begging for a championship, especially with a solid veteran behind the plate calling games. Mike Lowell makes an appearance once again. I'm beginning to think that he's one hell of a good luck charm....perhaps the Brewers should have tried to acquire him.
1997 Florida Marlins
Charles Johnson, C: .250/.347/.454 (.245/.330/.433 career). Johnson’s second best season, only to his excellent 2000 campaign. One of his best power seasons, and his best season for walks.
Kevin Brown, SP: 2.92 runs average, 7.19 IP/GS, 1.180 WHIP (3.75 runs average, 6.70 IP/G, 1.222 WHIP career). Brown’s second best all-around season, surpassed only by his 1996 campaign, and maybe matched by his 2003 season.
Livan Hernandez, SP: 3.64 runs average, 5.66 IP/GS, 1.235 WHIP (4.58 runs average, 6.74 IP/GS, 1.426 WHIP career). A key rookie contribution by one of the best middle rotation innings eaters in baseball. This season remains one of his best, even if it is shortened.
Average or below average veteran seasons:
Jeff Conine, 1B: .242/.337/.405 vs. .285/.347/.443
Bobby Bonilla, 3B: .297/.378/.468 vs. .279/.358/.472
Moises Alou, OF: .292/.373/.493 vs. .303/.369/.516
Devon White, OF: .245/.338/.370 vs. .263/.319/.419
Gary Sheffield, OF: .250/.424/.446 vs. .294/.396/.519
Alex Fernandez, SP: 3.59 ERA, 1.248 WHIP vs. 3.74 ERA, 1.275 WHIP
Al Leiter, SP: 4.34 ERA, 1.480 WHIP vs. 3.80 ERA, 1.386 WHIP
Pat Rapp, SP: 4.47 ERA, 1.583 WHIP vs. 4.68 ERA, 1.550 WHIP
Robb Nen, RP: 3.89 ERA, 1.514 WHIP vs. 2.98 ERA, 1.213 WHIP
1999 and 2000 Yankees, eat your hearts out. I mean, these Marlins put on a clinic! If it weren't for Craig Counsell, Mr. Right-Place-Right-Time, where would this team have been?
I'll never forget the size of Livan Hernandez's strike zone in the playoffs that year -- probably bigger than El Duque's leaky raft! I'll also never forget Livan Hernandez's curveball that postseason. That season, the Marlins received a key contribution from a young pitcher, and one of their veterans (Brown) actually performed very well.
And who doesn't love Charles Johnson?
Oddly enough, if you asked me, I'd probably admit that I'd take Bobby Bonilla, Moises Alou, Devon White, and Gary Sheffield on my team in some regard. Just not in 1997!
2. 2006 St. Louis Cardinals
This one is almost as fun as the 2002 Anaheim Angels. Talk about the virtues of getting hot at the right time. This team went through the season with almost every starting position player playing below-average or below their career norm in some way, shape, or form -- except for, of course, Albert Pujols.
Chris Carpenter, SP: 3.29 runs average, 6.93 IP/GS, 1.069 WHIP (4.51 runs average, 6.19 IP/G, 1.330 WHIP career). One of Carpenter’s best season, second only to his 2005 Cy Young campaign. Well above-average contribution for his career.
Albert Pujols, 1B: .331/.431/.671 (.332/.423/.619 career). Okay, cheating here again, but let’s celebrate another exceptional season. Not his best all-around power season, although he did hit his career high HR, but arguably his best all-around season, including extra base hits and walks.
Average or below average veteran seasons: Yadier Molina, Aaron Miles, Scott Rolen, So Taguchi, and Jim Edmonds, as well as:
David Eckstein, SS: .292/.350/.344 vs. .285/.350/.361
Juan Encarnacion, OF: .278/.317/.443 vs. .270/.317/.441
Jason Marquis, SP: 6.02 ERA, 1.523 WHIP vs. 4.57 ERA, 1.429 WHIP
Jeff Suppan, SP: 4.12 ERA, 1.453 WHIP vs. 4.60 ERA, 1.428 WHIP
Jason Isringhausen, RP: 3.55 ERA, 1.457 WHIP vs. 3.60 ERA, 1.321 WHIP
3. 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks
Goodness! Can the NL quit sending boring teams to the World Series? In 2001, Luis Gonzalez suddenly hit more doubles for home runs, and the Diamondbacks had great pitching performances from Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.
2001 Arizona Diamondbacks
Luis Gonzalez, OF: .325/.429/.688 (.284/.367/.481 career). Easily Gonzalez’s best season ever. His 2B power suddenly became HR power, and he posted a HR total that is 26 higher than his previous best. Also drew a career high 100 walks.
Curt Schilling, SP: 3.02 runs average, 7.33 IP/GS, 1.075 WHIP (3.64 runs average, 5.73 IP/G, 1.137 WHIP). Probably Schilling’s second-best season, compared to his 2002 campaign. An exceptional season by a very good pitcher.
Once again: average to below-average seasons from veterans:
Damian Miller, C: .271/.337/.424 vs. .262/.329/.411
Jay Bell, 2B: .248/.349/.400 vs. .265/.343/.416
Matt Williams, 3B: .275/.314/.466 vs. .268/.317/.489
Tony Womack, SS: .266/.307/.345 vs. .273/.317/.356
Steve Finley, OF: .275/.337/.430 vs. .271/.332/.442
Let it be know that I probably would not take Damian Miller, Jay Bell, Matt Williams, Tony Womack, or Steve Finley on my team in any regard.
What is it with World Series teams and underperforming veterans? By this metric, the New York Mets and New York Yankees should be the clear frontrunners for the 2008 Fall Classic.
4. 1995 Atlanta Braves
Okay, this team is more fun...
1995 Atlanta Braves
This team escapes average analysis. It’s not difficult to analyze this team – firstly, they received 86 starts from Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, and Greg Maddux, all of whom had very good seasons; Maddux’s was exceptional.
The offense is one of the more interesting models in this group of teams – it includes young Ryan Klesko and Chipper Jones making their first real MLB “splashes.” Jones was above average offensively at 3B, and Klesko was excellent in the outfield.
The Braves had their share of below-league average veterans (Mark Lemke, Jeff Blauser, and Marquis Grissom up the middle), and underachieving vets (Fred McGriff and David Justice).
Chipper Jones, 3B: .265/.353/.450 (.310/.405/.550 career). Okay, so Jones’ rookie season was well-below his exceptional career at the hot corner. But, I’m including his season here because, frankly, 48 extra base hits (including 23 HR) and an OBP above .350 is not too shabby for a 140 G rookie contribution.
Ryan Klesko, OF: .310/.396/.608 (career .279/.370/.500 career). Klesko made his first splash at the MLB level for an extended period of time in 1995. In his first season with 100 starts, he hit 50 extra base hits, including 23 HR, and posted one of his best career OBP, and a SLG that would not be matched (of course, the SLG is high because of his smaller number of AB). Klesko was hardly a mere league average player throughout his career, but this contribution is worth noting because he really jumped onto the scene.
Mark Wohlers, RP: 2.23 runs average, 49 GF/25 SV, 1.160 WHIP. This season is notable because although it was not Wohler’s best for G, GF, or SV, it might have been his most complete season in terms of runs allowed, control, and hits allowed; for that reason, I think his 2005 campaign is arguably his best career season.
So, if you happen to have one John Smoltz, one Greg Maddux, and one Tom Glavine lying around, and you can add a young Chipper Jones and Ryan Klesko, and you can find a Mark Wohlers, we know for certain that you're in very good shape.
I really wish that we could find a team that thwarts this "good pitching wins championships" cliche -- I suppose I already forgot that we looked at the 2006 Cards. This team is really intriguing because even though they have the veteran underachievers, they also have two young studs breaking onto the scene.
I'm saving one last team for a special post...
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I was browsing Baseball-Reference's team encyclopedias the other day, one of my favorite pasttimes. I was investigating the late 1960s and early 1970s Earl Weaver teams in Baltimore, one of the most interesting "dynasties" in baseball. What I found to be particularly amazing -- aside from the superstars and starting pitching they had -- was the number of average players that were on the team. I started searching other teams, and found the trend to continue -- not only did I find there to be average players that contributed average numbers at key positions to World Series teams, but I also found a gold mine: average players that produce their best career season during what turns out to be a World Series Championship season.
So, I decided to take a look at the most recent championship teams of the last two decades, and put together a list of some players that produced key above-average seasons. I attempted to keep the list of players as close to the "league average" OPS+ and ERA+ ranges for their career (where ERA and OBP+SLG are measured against the league averages, and rated on a scale of +/- 100, where "100" = exactly league average; i.e., the 2004 AL OBP was .346, and the 2004 AL SLG was .445, so Bill Mueller's combination of .365 OBP/.446 SLG = 106, or slightly above league average,
I did include some above average players that had exceptional seasons. How can we ignore those, even when we're searching for the average?
Here is my first sample of teams:
1. 2004 and 2007 Boston Red Sox
The recent Red Sox teams possess undeniable talent; one might even say dominant talent, especially at their power positions. The middle order of Manny Ramirez, probably one of the best hitting OF ever when it's all said and done, and David Ortiz, one of the best scrap heap acquisitions ever, is one of the toughest in baseball, and their line up only seems to be getting stronger with the addition of talented youngsters.
Their teams, however, have been constructed with lots of steady veterans that do their jobs (Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, Jason Varitek, and Kevin Youkilis), and some that do not (cf. Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, Pokey Reese, J.D. Drew, and Gabe Kapler).
Here are a list of key performances from these teams:
2007 Boston Red Sox
Mike Lowell, 3B: .324/.378/.501 (.280/.344/.469 Career). Best OBP season, best hitting season; moderate power, second most total bases in career. Could be the most important contributor to the club outside of Ramirez and Ortiz.
Dustin Pedroia, 2B: .317/.380/.442 (.300/.357/.417 career). Rookie of the Year, and a fine rookie season overall – a solid, above average contribution at a key position.
Josh Beckett, SP: 3.41 runs average, 6.69 IP/GS, 1.141 WHIP (4.13 runs average, 6.04 IP/G, 1.222 WHIP career). Easily Beckett’s best season, following a few disappointing or injury-plagued seasons. Although his career line is above average, his best career season was well-timed, and his 2007 was truly exceptional compared to his career.
2004 Boston Red Sox
Mark Bellhorn, 2B: .264/.373/.444 (.230/.341/.394 career). Easily the season in his career with the most playing time (620 PA; next closest is 2002 with the Cubs, 529 PA). His best career numbers in his longest season, except for 27 HR in 2002.
Johnny Damon, CF: .304/.380/.477 (.287/.353/.433 career). Probably the second best overall season of his career, to his 2000 w/ Kansas City (.327/.382/.495), although he did set career highs for HR and BB. However, probably his most important season, as he played one more slightly above average season with the Red Sox before taking the money in Ned York.
Although Lowell, Pedroia, and Beckett have flashy names, their performances indicate my point. But Bellhorn and Damon really show what I'm looking for -- both are pretty much average players that really made important contributions at key positions (2B and CF) in 2004. I wonder what would have come of that 2004 club if Damon and Bellhorn were not above their averages.
2. 2002 Anaheim Angels
If there were ever a team that fit the description of being assembled in the right place and the right time, this was it. That's what makes this team so fun to analyze, and remember...
Scott Speizio, 1B: .285/.371/.436 (.255/.329/.419 career). Best full career season.
Adam Kennedy, 2B: .312/.345/.449 (.274/.328/.387 career). Best all-around season.
David Eckstein, SS: .293/.363/.388 (.285/.350/.361 career). Only 2005 matches it.
Garret Anderson, OF: .306/.332/.539 (.296/.327/.470 career). Second best season.
Brad Fullmer, DH: .289/.357/.531 (.279/.336/.486 career). His best full season.
Ramon Ortiz, SP: 4.02 runs average, 6.79 IP/GS, 1.178 WHIP (5.31 runs average, 5.27 IP/G, 1.419 WHIP). Amazing season!
Jarrod Washburn, SP: 3.28 runs average, 6.44 IP/GS, 1.175 WHIP (4.40 runs average, 5.95 IP/G, 1.306 WHIP). Remember him?
“This GM thing is a piece of cake! All I need is a few really good players (Glaus, Salmon, Appier) and a bunch of average players that have great seasons in the same year!” –Bill Stoneman
Seriously, what more can I add? Speizio, Kennedy, Eckstein, and Fullmer are especially intriguing names on this list. But, if their line up had received the regular old average, .320, .330, and .350 OBPs that these players respectively averaged for their careers, the team would have been sold up the creek. Speizio, Kennedy, Anderson, and Fullmer also contributed very solid SLG to the team -- certainly better than the slugging feats they accomplished later in their respective careers.
The pitching really gets me. Oh, to have a team with average starting pitchers in the middle of the rotation record one or two outs into the 7th, while allowing few baserunners, and allowing few runs to score.
3. 1998-2000 New York Yankees
These teams crack me up. Go to the New York Yankees' team encyclopedia for 1999 and 2000, and take a look at all of the incredibly mediocre or below average seasons that were recorded on these two Championship teams.
Here's what I found....
2000 New York Yankees
Tino Martinez, 1B: .258/.328/.422 vs. .271/.344/.471
Chuck Knoblauch, 2B: .283/.366/.385 vs. .289/.378/.406
Scott Brosius, 3B: .230/.299/.374 vs. .257/.323/.422
Paul O’Neill, RF: .283/.336/.424 vs. .288/.363/.470
Andy Pettitte, SP: 4.35 ERA, 1.461 WHIP vs. 3.85 ERA, 1.357 WHIP
David Cone, SP: 6.91 ERA, 1.768 WHIP vs. 3.46 ERA, 1.256 WHIP
Orlando Hernandez, SP: 4.51 ERA, 1.211 WHIP vs. 4.13 ERA, 1.263 WHIP
If it wasn’t for the acquisition of David Justice, an above average OF who played well above his norm in 78 G with the Yanks (.305/.391/.585 vs. .279/.378/.500), who knows what would have happened!
Apparently, you can build a World Series team with aging veterans that play below their career norms, as well as a World Series team with average talent that overachieves.
1999 New York Yankees
This one is cheating, but again the Yankees had a team of aging veterans that played pretty much at or below their career norms (this season featured Roger Clemens’ worst full season, and poor seasons from Paul O’Neill, Jorge Posada, and Scott Brosius).
Derek Jeter: .349/.438/.552 (.317/.387/.461 career). Okay, I know Derel Jeter is nowhere near an average offensive SS, but we’ve got to recognize that 1999 was his best season in his career. Highs for HR, 3B, and BB, and he’d never match the AVG, OBP, or SLG.
Chuck Knoblauch’s last hurrah: .292/.393/.454 (.289/.378/.406 career). Not his best season, but his last one at 2B. His career ending makes me cringe – 26 errors at 2B in 1999.
The number of underachievers on these teams could make a pretty decent team in their own right -- there aren't many days of the week that I wouldn't take Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, Chuck Knoblauch, and Jorge Posada in some regard. Scott Brosius is pretty much a below average player that produced poorly during those two seasons.
And, wouldn't you take Pettitte, Cone, and Hernandez as your bottom three? I would too -- except for 2000.
Talk about right place, right time. If it weren't for some key contributions -- like that of Jeter in 1999 and Justice in 2000, I wonder whether or not these teams would have been as successful.
Here's a more interesting season...
1998 New York Yankees
Scott Brosius, 3B: .300/.371/.472 (.257/.323/.422 career). Brosius’ best and longest season of his career. Only his HR total in a shorter season with Oakland in 1996 beats his 1998 campaign. 34 2B, 19 HR, 11 SB, and career high OBP.
Bernie Williams, CF: .342/.435/.536 (.297/.381/.477 career). Cheating again. Not an average offensive player for his career, but let’s celebrate his best season for all around hitting. Didn’t set any 2B or HR records, but did post his best SLG and second best OBP and AVG.
Oh yeah, and this is your bottom three rotation:
David Wells, SP: 3.61 runs average, 7.14 IP/GS, 1.045 WHIP (4.45 runs average, 5.21 IP/G, 1.266 WHIP career). Arguably one of his best seasons, if not the best.
Hideki Irabu, SP: 4.06 runs average, 5.97 IP/G, 1.295 WHIP (5.38 runs average, 4.08 IP/G, 1.405 WHIP career). Easily Irabu’s best season.
Orlando Hernandez, SP: 3.38 runs average, 6.71 IP/GS, 1.170 WHIP (4.39 runs average, 6.00 IP/G, 1.263 WHIP career). El Duque stormed onto the scene…
Let's appreciate Bernie Williams, first. Boy, I'd take him in CF everyday of the week and twice on Sundays. Brosius is just the type of player I'm looking for in this survey -- he had one heck of a 1998 campaign, and it went downhill from there. But, not many people will complain about .300/.371/.472 from the hot corner.
The 1998 Yanks bottom rotation has to be one of the most interesting cast of characters to compete for a World Series. There's Steinbrenner's "Fat Toad" (Irabu), the Cuban defector that came to America on a leaky -- er, Yacht (Hernandez), and everybody's favorite Babe Ruth impersonator (Wells).
Much like the 2002 Angels, however, who wouldn't want that type of production from their bottom rotation? We're talking about three pitchers that each made significant contributions to the rotation, ate a lot of innings, did not allow baserunners, and at the end of the day, they were all fairly average pitchers (Hernandez perhaps a bit better than Wells who is better than Irabu) that performed at the right time.
There is more on the way -- we're going to drag this one out because it's really fun to go through these teams and find these contributors. And my underlying point for analyzing the 2008 MLB season is the following -- so often, we debate about the best players vs. the best players when we compare teams. But, I'd contend that the great players are all mostly comparable in a lot of cases, unless we're talking about a truly exceptional player (like Manny or Pujols, etc.), and the only time they'll really stick out on a team is when they fail to perform.
What we should compare are the average players from each team, and analyze their performances to determine which teams may or may not be primed to make the postseason. Off the top of my head, for instance, I would probably take Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and Mike Cameron every day of the week over Mark DeRosa, Ryan Theriot, and Felix Pie and Reed Johnson. However, the average Cubs trio is greatly outperforming the Brewers' average trio, and that could be one significant point of contention between the two teams...
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I'm going to try and update the plate approaches of our team every two weeks or so, and suggest different types of line ups based on our approaches.
As I did in the first post on this topic, I am using five stats to attempt to measure a good plate approach: OBP, NP/PA, H/PA, BB/PA, and XBH/H. Basically, I am assuming that with a good plate approach a batter looks to get on base (OBP), take some pitches to find his best pitch to hit (NP/PA), attempt to hit (H/PA) or be ready to take a walk (BB/PA) -- and perhaps know the balance between those approaches, and finally, drive the ball (XBH/H). Obviously not every one of those elements is evident in every single plate approach, but I imagine that if we constructed a list of players with good plate approaches, we would find most of them successfully complete tasks such as getting on base, having a balanced approach, and sometimes driving the ball. Not only do we want players that get on base, but we want players that get to second base safely.
So, with that said, here are the most recent stat listings of our regular 8 thus far:
OBP
1. Fielder .363
2. Hart .356
3. Kendall .344
4. Weeks .330
5. Braun .321
6. Hardy .321
7. Cameron .313
8. Hall .286
NP/PA
1. Hall 4.26 (779/183)
2. Cameron 4.23 (351/83)
3. Weeks 4.04 (820/203)
4. Hardy 3.98 (673/169)
5. Fielder 3.87 (747/193)
6. Kendall 3.69 (583/158)
7. Hart 3.59 (653/182)
8. Braun 3.55 (695/196)
BB/PA
1. Fielder 12.95% (25/193)
2. Weeks 12.81% (26/203)
3. Cameron 10.84% (9/83)
4. Hardy 10.06% (17/169)
5. Hall 8.74% (16/183)
6. Kendall 7.59% (12/158)
7. Hart 6.04% (11/182)
8. Braun 4.08% (8/196)
H/PA
1. Braun 28.06% (55/196)
2. Hart 27.47% (50/182)
3. Kendall 23.42% (37/158)
4. Hardy 21.89% (37/169)
5. Fielder 21.24% (41/193)
6. Cameron 20.48% (17/83)
7. Hall 18.58% (34/183)
8. Weeks 16.75% (34/203) XBH/H
1. Cameron 52.94% (9/17)
2. Braun 50.91% (28/55)
3. Hall 47.06% (16/34)
4. Fielder 39.02% (16/41)
5. Weeks 35.29% (12/34)
6. Kendall 29.73% (11/37)
7. Hart 28.00% (14/50)
8. Hardy 21.62% (8/37)
Placing all of these stats together, and ranking the players, we get the following ranking of plate approaches:
Plate Approaches (total)
1. Fielder 16
2. Cameron 19
3. Weeks 22
4. Kendall 24 (.344)
5. Braun 24 (.321)
6. Hall 24 (.286)
7. Hart 25
8. Hardy 26
Fielder's plate approach is tops, and Cameron's is high despite a low OBP because of his relative balance between H and BB, his ability to hit extra bases with high frequency, and his patience. Then follow Weeks and Kendall, with Braun moving to fifth because of his OBP and patience, although he is the best pure hitter and near the top for extra base hits. Rounding out the bottom of the order are Hall, Hart, and Hardy. Hart is near the bottom, even though he has a high OBP, because he does not have a balanced approach between H and BB, he does not see a lot of pitches, and he is not hitting extra base hits frequently.
Here are some other variation line ups:
First, let's look at the best line up that takes into account nothing other than hitting (H/PA) and OBP.
H / OBP
1. Hart 4
2. Fielder 6 (.363)
3. Kendall 6 (.344)
4. Braun 6 (.321)
5. Hardy 10
6. Weeks 12
7. Cameron 13
8. Hall 15
This line up is my favorite: it considers OBP and XBH/H:
Power / OBP:
1. Fielder 5
2. Braun 7
3. Cameron 8
4. Hart 9 (.356)
5. Kendall 9 (.344)
6. Weeks 9 (.330)
7. Hall 11
8. Hardy 14
Finally, here's our best line up for patience (NP/PA) and OBP:
Patience / OBP
1. Fielder 6
2. Weeks 7
3. Hart 9
4. Kendall 9
5. Cameron 9
6. Hall 9
7. Hardy 10
8. Braun 13
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