There are 71 days until the All-Star Break, which might seem like an insignificant fact, if not a lifetime away for the suddenly-scuffling Brewers. I bring up this fact, however, because there are six crucial events in those 71 days: that is, there are six off days. Why are these off days crucial?
Well, I bring up these facts in light of Manny Parra's start tonight against the Houston Astros, during which he exited during the fifth. Now, these early exits have become a staple of Parra's early season, which are especially unfortunate because the indications are that his stuff is too good to suffer these types of problems with command and aggressiveness.
Then, I took a cue with Dave Bush, the pitcher that Yost placed on the mound in relief of Parra. If the rotation was jostled a bit, it could be Bush that takes Parra's spot in the rotation.
Now, you're probably thinking that this sounds insane: Not even 48 hours after the Brewers announced that Gallardo suffered an ACL in Chicago on Thursday, I am talking about jostling around the rotation.
I am making this suggestion because (1) it is clear that Parra needs to work some things out in his approach and straighten out those command issues. Even if we are now another starter short, that is no real excuse for keeping a young pitcher from being placed in the best environment possible to work out his problems. I am now uncertain that starting every fifth day and exiting in either the fifth or the sixth is the best plan of action for Parra.
I also make this suggestion because (2) the six off days between tomorrow and the All-Star break mean that the Brewers only need a fifth starter ten times in the rotation. This basically means that they can skip the fifth starter at least four times.
Because this spot can be skipped, I think that now would be the optimal time to allow Parra to work on his command problems at AAA, or if it is a better option, in the Brewers bullpen. This is not a move to be concerned with IP limitation (although the bullpen move would accomplish that feat as well), but a genuine move to allow Parra to work some things out with his pitches.
The upside of the move is that even though Weaver is somewhat of an unknown entity performance-wise (will he be 2007 Seattle? 2006 St. Louis?), he is likely to pitch around 5.33 IP per start (if not more), which is more than Parra is currently averaging.
Here's how the move could be completed:
(1) Move Bush into the starter's rotation for the May 8 game at Florida
(2) Start Parra on May 10 and May 15 in Milwaukee; Start Weaver on May 6, 11, and 16
(3) Move Parra to AAA on May 17, and bring Weaver up to serve in the bullpen until a May 24 start for Milwaukee
The move gets Parra two more regular starts while Weaver tunes up, and then allows Weaver to take the brunt of the long rest periods and irregular work of a true 5th starter, whose spot will be skipped in the rotation.
This will do several things: (1) Maximize the number of starts for Sheets and Suppan during this stretch of time, which is imperative with Gallardo out of the picture; (2) Give Bush and CV spots in the rotation, which is important because they are averaging more IP/GS than Parra; (3) Give Weaver eight starts before the AS Break.
I know that this precludes several things that might be unlikely: (1) Calling up Weaver means that the Crew kicks in his MLB incentives salary; (2) Ned Yost never has supported the idea of switching around his rotation spots and using a true 5 man with a four starter rotation. There is some good reason for this, as every pitcher in the rotation receives the same amount of rest and is on a very regular schedule; however, with pitching depth thinning, and the quality of the starts in question as well, now is the perfect time to maximize the rotation and use a four-man rotation.
Here's how it could work:
May 4 Sheets
6 Suppan
7 Villanueva
8 Bush
9 Sheets
10 Parra
11 Suppan
12 Villanueva
13 Bush
14 Sheets
15 Parra
16 Suppan
17 Villanueva
18 Bush
20 Sheets
21 Suppan
22 Villanueva
23 Bush
24 Weaver
25 Sheets
26 Suppan
27 Villanueva
28 Bush
29 Weaver
30 Sheets
31 Suppan
June 1 Villanueva
2 Bush
3 Weaver
4 Sheets
6 Villanueva
7 Bush
8 Suppan
10 Sheets
11 Villanueva
12 Bush
13 Suppan
14 Weaver
15 Sheets
17 Villanueva
18 Suppan
19 Bush
20 Sheets
21 Weaver
22 Villanueva
23 Suppan
24 Bush
25 Sheets
27 Villanueva
28 Suppan
29 Bush
30 Sheets
July 1 Weaver
2 Villanueva
3 Suppan
4 Bush
5 Sheets
6 Weaver
7 Villanueva
8 Suppan
9 Bush
10 Sheets
11 Weaver
12 Villanueva
13 Suppan
As for what we could expect from Weaver, here are his previous two years in Seattle, St. Louis, and Anaheim:
Weaver (2006-2007): 58 GS, 318.7 IP; 403 H, 222 R, 187 K/82 BB; 19 quality starts (33%); 6.27 runs average, 5.49 IP/GS
These numbers do not look promising by any stretch of the imagination, but they basically give the Brewers an innings eater for the fifth spot, and someone that has a veteran arm with no workload concerns for an irregular fifth man role. Also, the maximization of Sheets and Suppan during this time on regular rest will counter-act any poor starts by Weaver (Sheets and Suppan each get approximately one extra start in this scenario).
Over 5.49 IP/GS, a 6.27 runs average basically means that Weaver would be likely to allow under 4 runs in just over 5.33 IP, which is a stronger performance than we can expect from Parra based on his 2008 campaign thus far (Parra's current 6.17 runs average over 4.62 IP/GS basically mean 3.17 runs allowed over the span of 4.70 IP....)
I know this is a somewhat unlikely scenario, but I think it could maximize the starting rotation until the All-Star Break, and then prepare Parra for a stretch run beginning after the All-Star break, after he gets two and a half months of work between AAA and/or the bullpen.