I was browsing Baseball-Reference's team encyclopedias the other day, one of my favorite pasttimes. I was investigating the late 1960s and early 1970s Earl Weaver teams in Baltimore, one of the most interesting "dynasties" in baseball. What I found to be particularly amazing -- aside from the superstars and starting pitching they had -- was the number of average players that were on the team. I started searching other teams, and found the trend to continue -- not only did I find there to be average players that contributed average numbers at key positions to World Series teams, but I also found a gold mine: average players that produce their best career season during what turns out to be a World Series Championship season.
So, I decided to take a look at the most recent championship teams of the last two decades, and put together a list of some players that produced key above-average seasons. I attempted to keep the list of players as close to the "league average" OPS+ and ERA+ ranges for their career (where ERA and OBP+SLG are measured against the league averages, and rated on a scale of +/- 100, where "100" = exactly league average; i.e., the 2004 AL OBP was .346, and the 2004 AL SLG was .445, so Bill Mueller's combination of .365 OBP/.446 SLG = 106, or slightly above league average,
I did include some above average players that had exceptional seasons. How can we ignore those, even when we're searching for the average?
Here is my first sample of teams:
1. 2004 and 2007 Boston Red Sox
The recent Red Sox teams possess undeniable talent; one might even say dominant talent, especially at their power positions. The middle order of Manny Ramirez, probably one of the best hitting OF ever when it's all said and done, and David Ortiz, one of the best scrap heap acquisitions ever, is one of the toughest in baseball, and their line up only seems to be getting stronger with the addition of talented youngsters.
Their teams, however, have been constructed with lots of steady veterans that do their jobs (Bill Mueller, Kevin Millar, Jason Varitek, and Kevin Youkilis), and some that do not (cf. Julio Lugo, Coco Crisp, Pokey Reese, J.D. Drew, and Gabe Kapler).
Here are a list of key performances from these teams:
2007 Boston Red Sox
Mike Lowell, 3B: .324/.378/.501 (.280/.344/.469 Career). Best OBP season, best hitting season; moderate power, second most total bases in career. Could be the most important contributor to the club outside of Ramirez and Ortiz.
Dustin Pedroia, 2B: .317/.380/.442 (.300/.357/.417 career). Rookie of the Year, and a fine rookie season overall – a solid, above average contribution at a key position.
Josh Beckett, SP: 3.41 runs average, 6.69 IP/GS, 1.141 WHIP (4.13 runs average, 6.04 IP/G, 1.222 WHIP career). Easily Beckett’s best season, following a few disappointing or injury-plagued seasons. Although his career line is above average, his best career season was well-timed, and his 2007 was truly exceptional compared to his career.
2004 Boston Red Sox
Mark Bellhorn, 2B: .264/.373/.444 (.230/.341/.394 career). Easily the season in his career with the most playing time (620 PA; next closest is 2002 with the Cubs, 529 PA). His best career numbers in his longest season, except for 27 HR in 2002.
Johnny Damon, CF: .304/.380/.477 (.287/.353/.433 career). Probably the second best overall season of his career, to his 2000 w/ Kansas City (.327/.382/.495), although he did set career highs for HR and BB. However, probably his most important season, as he played one more slightly above average season with the Red Sox before taking the money in Ned York.
Although Lowell, Pedroia, and Beckett have flashy names, their performances indicate my point. But Bellhorn and Damon really show what I'm looking for -- both are pretty much average players that really made important contributions at key positions (2B and CF) in 2004. I wonder what would have come of that 2004 club if Damon and Bellhorn were not above their averages.
2. 2002 Anaheim Angels
If there were ever a team that fit the description of being assembled in the right place and the right time, this was it. That's what makes this team so fun to analyze, and remember...
Scott Speizio, 1B: .285/.371/.436 (.255/.329/.419 career). Best full career season.
Adam Kennedy, 2B: .312/.345/.449 (.274/.328/.387 career). Best all-around season.
David Eckstein, SS: .293/.363/.388 (.285/.350/.361 career). Only 2005 matches it.
Garret Anderson, OF: .306/.332/.539 (.296/.327/.470 career). Second best season.
Brad Fullmer, DH: .289/.357/.531 (.279/.336/.486 career). His best full season.
Ramon Ortiz, SP: 4.02 runs average, 6.79 IP/GS, 1.178 WHIP (5.31 runs average, 5.27 IP/G, 1.419 WHIP). Amazing season!
Jarrod Washburn, SP: 3.28 runs average, 6.44 IP/GS, 1.175 WHIP (4.40 runs average, 5.95 IP/G, 1.306 WHIP). Remember him?
“This GM thing is a piece of cake! All I need is a few really good players (Glaus, Salmon, Appier) and a bunch of average players that have great seasons in the same year!” –Bill Stoneman
Seriously, what more can I add? Speizio, Kennedy, Eckstein, and Fullmer are especially intriguing names on this list. But, if their line up had received the regular old average, .320, .330, and .350 OBPs that these players respectively averaged for their careers, the team would have been sold up the creek. Speizio, Kennedy, Anderson, and Fullmer also contributed very solid SLG to the team -- certainly better than the slugging feats they accomplished later in their respective careers.
The pitching really gets me. Oh, to have a team with average starting pitchers in the middle of the rotation record one or two outs into the 7th, while allowing few baserunners, and allowing few runs to score.
3. 1998-2000 New York Yankees
These teams crack me up. Go to the New York Yankees' team encyclopedia for 1999 and 2000, and take a look at all of the incredibly mediocre or below average seasons that were recorded on these two Championship teams.
Here's what I found....
2000 New York Yankees
Tino Martinez, 1B: .258/.328/.422 vs. .271/.344/.471
Chuck Knoblauch, 2B: .283/.366/.385 vs. .289/.378/.406
Scott Brosius, 3B: .230/.299/.374 vs. .257/.323/.422
Paul O’Neill, RF: .283/.336/.424 vs. .288/.363/.470
Andy Pettitte, SP: 4.35 ERA, 1.461 WHIP vs. 3.85 ERA, 1.357 WHIP
David Cone, SP: 6.91 ERA, 1.768 WHIP vs. 3.46 ERA, 1.256 WHIP
Orlando Hernandez, SP: 4.51 ERA, 1.211 WHIP vs. 4.13 ERA, 1.263 WHIP
If it wasn’t for the acquisition of David Justice, an above average OF who played well above his norm in 78 G with the Yanks (.305/.391/.585 vs. .279/.378/.500), who knows what would have happened!
Apparently, you can build a World Series team with aging veterans that play below their career norms, as well as a World Series team with average talent that overachieves.
1999 New York Yankees
This one is cheating, but again the Yankees had a team of aging veterans that played pretty much at or below their career norms (this season featured Roger Clemens’ worst full season, and poor seasons from Paul O’Neill, Jorge Posada, and Scott Brosius).
Derek Jeter: .349/.438/.552 (.317/.387/.461 career). Okay, I know Derel Jeter is nowhere near an average offensive SS, but we’ve got to recognize that 1999 was his best season in his career. Highs for HR, 3B, and BB, and he’d never match the AVG, OBP, or SLG.
Chuck Knoblauch’s last hurrah: .292/.393/.454 (.289/.378/.406 career). Not his best season, but his last one at 2B. His career ending makes me cringe – 26 errors at 2B in 1999.
The number of underachievers on these teams could make a pretty decent team in their own right -- there aren't many days of the week that I wouldn't take Paul O'Neill, Tino Martinez, Chuck Knoblauch, and Jorge Posada in some regard. Scott Brosius is pretty much a below average player that produced poorly during those two seasons.
And, wouldn't you take Pettitte, Cone, and Hernandez as your bottom three? I would too -- except for 2000.
Talk about right place, right time. If it weren't for some key contributions -- like that of Jeter in 1999 and Justice in 2000, I wonder whether or not these teams would have been as successful.
Here's a more interesting season...
1998 New York Yankees
Scott Brosius, 3B: .300/.371/.472 (.257/.323/.422 career). Brosius’ best and longest season of his career. Only his HR total in a shorter season with Oakland in 1996 beats his 1998 campaign. 34 2B, 19 HR, 11 SB, and career high OBP.
Bernie Williams, CF: .342/.435/.536 (.297/.381/.477 career). Cheating again. Not an average offensive player for his career, but let’s celebrate his best season for all around hitting. Didn’t set any 2B or HR records, but did post his best SLG and second best OBP and AVG.
Oh yeah, and this is your bottom three rotation:
David Wells, SP: 3.61 runs average, 7.14 IP/GS, 1.045 WHIP (4.45 runs average, 5.21 IP/G, 1.266 WHIP career). Arguably one of his best seasons, if not the best.
Hideki Irabu, SP: 4.06 runs average, 5.97 IP/G, 1.295 WHIP (5.38 runs average, 4.08 IP/G, 1.405 WHIP career). Easily Irabu’s best season.
Orlando Hernandez, SP: 3.38 runs average, 6.71 IP/GS, 1.170 WHIP (4.39 runs average, 6.00 IP/G, 1.263 WHIP career). El Duque stormed onto the scene…
Let's appreciate Bernie Williams, first. Boy, I'd take him in CF everyday of the week and twice on Sundays. Brosius is just the type of player I'm looking for in this survey -- he had one heck of a 1998 campaign, and it went downhill from there. But, not many people will complain about .300/.371/.472 from the hot corner.
The 1998 Yanks bottom rotation has to be one of the most interesting cast of characters to compete for a World Series. There's Steinbrenner's "Fat Toad" (Irabu), the Cuban defector that came to America on a leaky -- er, Yacht (Hernandez), and everybody's favorite Babe Ruth impersonator (Wells).
Much like the 2002 Angels, however, who wouldn't want that type of production from their bottom rotation? We're talking about three pitchers that each made significant contributions to the rotation, ate a lot of innings, did not allow baserunners, and at the end of the day, they were all fairly average pitchers (Hernandez perhaps a bit better than Wells who is better than Irabu) that performed at the right time.
There is more on the way -- we're going to drag this one out because it's really fun to go through these teams and find these contributors. And my underlying point for analyzing the 2008 MLB season is the following -- so often, we debate about the best players vs. the best players when we compare teams. But, I'd contend that the great players are all mostly comparable in a lot of cases, unless we're talking about a truly exceptional player (like Manny or Pujols, etc.), and the only time they'll really stick out on a team is when they fail to perform.
What we should compare are the average players from each team, and analyze their performances to determine which teams may or may not be primed to make the postseason. Off the top of my head, for instance, I would probably take Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and Mike Cameron every day of the week over Mark DeRosa, Ryan Theriot, and Felix Pie and Reed Johnson. However, the average Cubs trio is greatly outperforming the Brewers' average trio, and that could be one significant point of contention between the two teams...